Rng? No, Just Ng For Your Money.

[Onite]

Zekail, on 25 May 2013 - 05:42 AM, said:

this is my tally of parts/blueprints

Latron prime BP 8
Latron prime barrel 2
Latron prime stock 16
Latron prime receiver 0 <- DE ™ © decreased chance of dropping

Reaper prime BP 5
Reaper prime handle 11
Reaper prime blade 0 <- DE ™ © decreased chance of dropping

Frost prime BP 0 <- DE ™ © decreased chance of dropping
Frost prime helm 4
Frost prime systems 2
Frost prime chassis 3

Forma BP 1 <- DE ™ © decreased chance of dropping

EDIT NEW TOTAL: 51 void runs

 

 

For those of you saying the RNG is just being unkind, and that theres nothing wrong with it/you think these results are natural.

 

Lets do an experiment.

 

Theres 12 different rewards here, So i'm going to use my D12.

 

Lets assign each prize a number.

 

 

1     Latron prime BP
2     Latron prime barrel
3     Latron prime stock
4     Latron prime receiver
5     Reaper prime BP
6     Reaper prime handle
7     Reaper prime blade
8     Frost prime BP
9     Frost prime helm
10   Frost prime systems
11   Frost prime chassis
12   Forma BP

 

To re create Zekail's scenario, i'm going to roll 51 times representing his 51 void runs.

These are the results:

 

1     Latron prime BP           4
2     Latron prime barrel     7
3     Latron prime stock      6
4     Latron prime receiver  6
5     Reaper prime BP         4
6     Reaper prime handle  7
7     Reaper prime blade     2
8     Frost prime BP            4
9     Frost prime helm         2
10   Frost prime systems   5
11   Frost prime chassis   2
12   Forma BP                  2

 

This shows that zekails rolls are standing against -all probability- not just for him, but for other people as well that have had similar results.

 

I did another test to see about how many rolls it took just to get one of each number. You can watch it yourself.

 

26 rolls for good measure just to see a handful of results. All numbers came up. If you dont have a D12 and want to try this yourself, http://www.wizards.com/dnd/dice/dice.htm Use that dice roller.

 

You'll most likely find results similar to my manual dice rolls. Which would only mean that those with similar results to Zekail's only conclude that the Random Number Generator for void run loot, is NOT truly random. While in theory, its completely possible for everyone to roll results at complete random like theirs, the fact that many multiple people have had the same results with void loot, would make this into an almost paranormal phenomenon by the sheer unlikelyness if it is indeed, truly random. But it is far far far, FAR, more likely that DE designed the loot drop system this way, instead of letting your rewards truly be randomly picked. The ethics of that are discussed here> https://forums.warframe.com/index.php?/topic/51958-dear-de-the-simple-statistical-reason-as-to-why-im-never-going-to-buy-void-keys/

 

 

This post is only to test and prove likely and unlikelihood against the RNG.

Edited May 27, 2013 by Onite

[xection9]

There's no RNG, there's only "as intended", or "by design", or "carefully implemented" or what ever fancy their name is, one thing for sure it's not a goddamn RNG.

[Shizzuie]

No.

 

+60 runs here and so far I have over 15 reaper handles, latron stocks, and latron BPs...

[theammostore]

I thought it was a weighted RNG. To quote the wiki, on simply the login rewards:

 

"The reward is selected from a weighted random number generator (RNG). The quickly changing images of prizes is for effect, giving the "spinning wheel" feel to the reward. Clicking on the pictures has no effect.

 

The rewards come in denominations of 1 day (common), 3 day (common to uncommon), and 7 day rewards (common to rare). After receiving your first 7 day reward, the counter does not reset; instead every consecutive day logged in afterwards will bear more 7 day rewards.  However, a single day spent offline will reset the counter back to 1 day, therefore it is advised to log in each day whenever possible, regardless if one actually intends to play actively.

 

Current lists are incomplete, please add to them as more rewards become available."

 

First sentence is the key bit there.

[Onite]

I thought it was a weighted RNG. To quote the wiki, on simply the login rewards:

 

"The reward is selected from a weighted random number generator (RNG). The quickly changing images of prizes is for effect, giving the "spinning wheel" feel to the reward. Clicking on the pictures has no effect.

 

The rewards come in denominations of 1 day (common), 3 day (common to uncommon), and 7 day rewards (common to rare). After receiving your first 7 day reward, the counter does not reset; instead every consecutive day logged in afterwards will bear more 7 day rewards.  However, a single day spent offline will reset the counter back to 1 day, therefore it is advised to log in each day whenever possible, regardless if one actually intends to play actively.

 

Current lists are incomplete, please add to them as more rewards become available."

 

First sentence is the key bit there.

Theres still a chance you can get those items though, theoretically.

 

However, in this problem, each set making up an item cannot be made because a key part is missing. And you can and are encouraged to keep spending money in belief that you can. Also, log in rewards are varied by quantity and rarity for the weight. Obviously 200 credits is not as good as an orokin catalyst. And the weight is in 1, 3, and 7 day rewards thrown into the RNG. The problem here is that there is a hidden weight behind a random normal component so that you cannot complete the item, so that you are driven to believe you can keep spending time/money in an infinite loop using the missing item as a carrot.

[neKroMancer]

It's like the BP for frame system or alert with skin. Using dice roll in order to determine the result will definitely going to be misleading - it's weighted.

There are players who get these stuff in three runs in my clan. There are players who fail to get the receiver after 50 runs. We need a lot of data which is truely randomized in order to create an actual statistic. However, forum data is likely to be biased since players who visit the forum and post something about it are likely to be ones with negative experience about it. Not to mention that forum dwellers are likely to be an extreme minority in the game.

[Pixues]

Pseudo random number generator is the thing.....PRNG

[Onite]

It's like the BP for frame system or alert with skin. Using dice roll in order to determine the result will definitely going to be misleading - it's weighted.

There are players who get these stuff in three runs in my clan. There are players who fail to get the receiver after 50 runs. We need a lot of data which is truely randomized in order to create an actual statistic. However, forum data is likely to be biased since players who visit the forum and post something about it are likely to be ones with negative experience about it. Not to mention that forum dwellers are likely to be an extreme minority in the game.

Well the thing is, even my friends who actively play, and also pay for the game who dont use the forums, also told me they came up dry without the receiver, frost blueprint, or blade. After many consecutive tries.

[neKroMancer]

Well the thing is, even my friends who actively play, and also pay for the game who dont use the forums, also told me they came up dry without the receiver, frost blueprint, or blade. After many consecutive tries.

That's the nature of the system.

Statistically speaking, we need a lot of data to determine droprate. A concerted effort to get at least unbiased 1000+ run to calculate the droprate. Assume that DE isn't going to tweak the droprate with weekly patch. Even if we can pinpoint the droprate, it still doesn't mean that player will get certain item after a fixed number of tries.

I'll wait for the livestream for response from DE. Undoubtly, this will be brought to their attention.

[bakaxy]

Pseudo random number generator is the thing.....PRNG

this

Edited May 27, 2013 by bakaxy

[matrixEXO]

I would say it's not a true dice roll since it has probability factor involved. Which is why a hotfix said it reduced the Reaper Handle chances. IE: Reaper Handle at 35% chance is high enough to cause it to drop often, especially when the other 65% is taken up by other 11 items.

Edited May 27, 2013 by matrixEXO

[Onite]

That's the nature of the system.

Statistically speaking, we need a lot of data to determine droprate. A concerted effort to get at least unbiased 1000+ run to calculate the droprate. Assume that DE isn't going to tweak the droprate with weekly patch. Even if we can pinpoint the droprate, it still doesn't mean that player will get certain item after a fixed number of tries.

I'll wait for the livestream for response from DE. Undoubtly, this will be brought to their attention.

The "nature" of the system is what this whole thread is about. Which shows that the drop rates arent natural. There is no such thing as "Nature of the system" when you're talking about probability. It really doesnt matter how many different people run these tests, when theres already a handful of people who have the same results, and they have run void missions extensively, it gives a very clear readout of whats going on. Its absolutely clear. No further data is needed. I explained if it was even the case of "Truly random" luck of the draw.

[TennoSkoom]

There are probability tables in addition to their rng, this will greatly change the outcome. RNG is not implemented as stand-alone. This is obvious if you read the wiki or play the game for any amount of time.

 

The problem you have is not with the implementation of rng, but rather with the values in these probability tables.

 

never the less, i do agree that---

 

 

and these probability tables should be adjusted accordingly.

Edited May 27, 2013 by AnalogAnomaly

[Aerensiniac]

 

Well... If server problems are blamed on grineers, then DE's financial section is stock full with corpus.

Humor aside: If DE does not address these nutjobs in the financial section soon, then there will be no finances to talk about.

Enough with the @(*()&#036; rng bs and farm fest. There are successful F2P models out there. If you are too &#036;&amp;*&amp;*#(%&amp; to come up with one on your own, then at least gather the IQ necessary to copy one that is working.

 

The guys working at finances should be fired.