Attention De:the Biggest Nerf Of U8 Everyone Missed: Orokin Reactors/catalyst Alerts.

[xenapan]

Edit: Heavily edited to reflect the days that have passed.

It's been 9 TWENTY+ days since the new update. What everyone FAILED to notice.. is the BIGGEST nerf of all. Alert rate of the orokin reactors + catalysts.  Heres the alerts listed in the twitter since released on Apr 12th. Tallies per week of how many alerts at the bottom. You will see on the average week we have had 2. 18 days of data in april, 31 days in may. For a total of 50 days of alert data. We totaled 18 potatoes. or a 36% chance of a potato on the average day. With an average of 2 potatoes per week. It's been 9 20 27 days since update 8. There has been ONE when we would have averaged 3 SEVEN by now. understandable it is random, but 1? ok so I guess there have been some changes.. but this these past weeks.. ZERO in a week? thats never happened. and we are closing in on PAST the 3 week mark without a randomly generated potato alert (im discounting the June 5th alert because it was manually generated)

 

DE. I like your team, I love the work you have done, and huge respect for the way you have approached most parts of this project. In the past few livestreams you've agreed that more transparency is good. So I'm asking you now to make a public statement: Did you nerf the reactor/catalyst rates? Come clean about it if you did. I can respect you as a player if you did, but silent nerfs, formas for research, building? I'm starting to lose trust in you.  So I'm asking you. Please be honest.

Date Drop Reactor Catalyst

Apr 16th   1  

Apr 20th   1 1

Apr 22nd     1

Apr 24th     1

May 02nd     1

May 03rd   1  

May 05th   1  

May 08th   1  

May 10th     1

May 11th   1  

May 12th     1

May 13th     2

May 14th     2

May 15th   1  

May 21st   1  

May 25th     1                

June 5th      1 (Livestream - not RNG alert)

 

This section below is the aggregate totals per week, Total, reactors, catalysts in that order.

Week of Apr 14th-20th 3 2 1

21st-27th 2 0 2

Apr 28th-may4th Total2 1 1

May 5th - 11th Total 2 1 1

May 12th -18th Total 6 1 5

May 19th -25th Total 3 2 1

May 26th-Jun1st Total 0 0 0

Jun 2nd - Jun8th Total 1 1 0

Jun 9th - Today(Jun12th) Total 0 0 0

U8: May23rd-now (Jun12th) Total 2 1 1

 

Last randomly generated potato: May 25th.

Days since last randomly generated potato: 18.

RNG potatoes since U8: 1 (may 25th)

 

 

Because I had 20 minutes to burn, here is the potato famine in graph form

Edited June 25, 2013 by xenapan

[Altale]

Nerfing RNG.

 

I don't even...

[ethics]

As more items get introduced the odds of getting x decreases. That's how it works.

 

The system is random, they have no input on it apart from livestreams as has been confirmed by them. It is simply a questions of odds changing. No stealth nerfs so keep your pants on.

[VKhaun]

What a crock. 

 

They can adjust alerts however they see fit. No where in the game does it state that alert ? reward rates are set in stone or that you're entitled to get what you're looking for, or that they will always drop everything equally.

Edited June 2, 2013 by VKhaun

[Notso]

You don't really understand how probability works do you? Please read this, them come back here if you're still unconvinced and I'll explain further.

https://forums.warframe.com/index.php?/topic/45426-please-read-this-before-posting-about-drop-rates/

[Toddwjp]

Add formas to the list,

[Felandi]

I do not belive they have made a single change to the chance of reactors or catalysts to appear in alerts. It is a combination of another item present in the potential list and the simplest reason of all. Bad luck.

 

No really, bad luck.

[xenapan]

Add formas to the list,

There have been 3 forma alerts so far. 1 due to livestream, 1 failed and buggy one, 1 second manually generated  forma alert .

 

May 29, May 31st X2 (first was fake )

 

Therefore there have been ZERO actual randomized forma alerts so far (other than the bugged one). Both the livestream and the "fix" were manually generated alerts therefore there is no actual data on working random ones yet. Potatoes on the other hand have had plenty of historical data.

Edited June 2, 2013 by xenapan

[Strac_CRO]

As more items get introduced the odds of getting x decreases. That's how it works.

...

that

[Notso]

As more items get introduced the odds of getting x decreases. That's how it works.

 

The system is random, they have no input on it apart from livestreams as has been confirmed by them. It is simply a questions of odds changing. No stealth nerfs so keep your pants on.

Except the only item added to the list in U8 was Forma, so its just bad luck, in all likelihood.

[xenapan]

You don't really understand how probability works do you? Please read this, them come back here if you're still unconvinced and I'll explain further.

https://forums.warframe.com/index.php?/topic/45426-please-read-this-before-posting-about-drop-rates/

 

I understand probability way better than you. Note the historical data.  pre update 8 of potato alerts NEVER dropping below 2 per week. Historically 2 is the MINIMUM. with 6 being the max. Update 8 comes out, suddenly the minimum is broken, the average is broken. this is variance in the data thats never been seen before. Not to mention the variance has always been positive always resulting in MORE never less in a given week.

[Notso]

I understand probability way better than you. Note the historical data. pre update 8 of potato alerts NEVER dropping below 2 per week. Historically 2 is the MINIMUM. with 6 being the max. Update 8 comes out, suddenly the minimum is broken, the average is broken. this is variance in the data thats never been seen before. Not to mention the variance has always been positive always resulting in MORE never less in a given week.

As I said, you clearly do not understand it. A single week where the probability is below the expected value is not unexpected. In fact, there is about a 14% chance if we take 2 as the average per week.

Edited June 2, 2013 by Notso

[xenapan]

As I said, you clearly do not understand it. A single week where the probability is below the expected value is not unexpected. In fact, there is about a 14% chance if we take 2 as the average per week.

The standard deviation is 1.77 but the skew is positive. What am I not understanding? and FYI I've previously done the numbers on the pre alert data as well via forum posts in the alert section. The average has always been 3 days per potato bps and historically theres NEVER been a week without a single potato alert. I just used alert data because its nice and easy and accessible as well as recent but I can assure you there isnt a 14% chance of a single week not dropping. on AVERAGE yes 14% is the chance of no potato alerts if you consider the "chance" 2/7. This ISNT a standard distribution so therefore no, the chances aren't 14%.

[Notso]

You're right its not a standard distribution, its Poisson in fact. If we take your average of 7/3 per week then the probability of there being no alert is 10%

Edited June 2, 2013 by Notso

[xenapan]

You're right its not a standard distribution, its Poisson in fact. If we take your average of 7/3 per week then the probability of there being no alert is 10%

If you calculate the SD with pre twitter alerts included it drops drastically taking that number down even further.

[Notso]

Oh and wait. If I normalise your standard distribution using your mean and standard deviation the probability comes out as... 9.3%. Guess I'm not so incorrect after all.

Edited June 2, 2013 by Notso

[shukudai]

It's been 9 days since the new update. What everyone FAILED to notice.. is the BIGGEST nerf of all.

 

Is this including or excluding the stealth nerf of pistol zoom? :)

[Scoosh]

It's random. There were two catalyst alerts in a row before, amazing if you got them, rubbish if you were away.

[fauxhb]

4 items were introduced into the alert pool. rare ones. they could not possibly have influenced randomness of potatoes. i'll wait at least another week before agreeing with op, though. good theory anyway.

[Myrryr]

Ya know, I'm curious. Where, exactly, has it been stated by DE that the alert system is entirely random probability? Other than on the forums of players that massively assume it's random and not cherry picked by a DE employee all the time I don't think I've seen a statement by DE about it.
In all honesty if it's random then it has some of the most seriously skewed results ever. I see enemy radar on average 1-2 times per day. I've seen a single Vauban chassis in what, 12 days? Rifle Amp comes up 3-5 times a week, Glaive I've seen twice since it came out.
And on that note, what exactly is it that triggers an alert? It doesn't seem to be by hourly or w/e, there've been days where there have been 3-4 mystery alerts and then days where there have 8 or 9. Why is that?

[Rabcor]

As more items get introduced the odds of getting x decreases. That's how it works.

 

The system is random, they have no input on it apart from livestreams as has been confirmed by them. It is simply a questions of odds changing. No stealth nerfs so keep your pants on.

I have noticed we get more and more worthless alerts after U8 though...

Edited June 2, 2013 by Rabcor

[Vabla]

I have noticed we get more and more worthless alerts after U8 though...

Do you have something against shotgun scavenger?!?

 

But if seriously, I was pretty surprised to see a blueprint show up earlier today. Seems like the R in the NG got adjusted once again.

[Gatanotoah]

Ya know, I'm curious. Where, exactly, has it been stated by DE that the alert system is entirely random probability?

Like every livestream and repeatedly in the Forum posts from Lotus and the Devs. Do you even forum?

[Aggh]

4 items were introduced into the alert pool. rare ones. they could not possibly have influenced randomness of potatoes. i'll wait at least another week before agreeing with op, though. good theory anyway.

According to the devs, two of vauban parts are supposed to be as common as scavenger artifacts/

 

Ya know, I'm curious. Where, exactly, has it been stated by DE that the alert system is entirely random probability? Other than on the forums of players that massively assume it's random and not cherry picked by a DE employee all the time I don't think I've seen a statement by DE about it.

In all honesty if it's random then it has some of the most seriously skewed results ever. I see enemy radar on average 1-2 times per day. I've seen a single Vauban chassis in what, 12 days? Rifle Amp comes up 3-5 times a week, Glaive I've seen twice since it came out.

And on that note, what exactly is it that triggers an alert? It doesn't seem to be by hourly or w/e, there've been days where there have been 3-4 mystery alerts and then days where there have 8 or 9. Why is that?

They said it in a couple of the live streams iirc.

 

As more items get introduced the odds of getting x decreases. That's how it works.

 

The system is random, they have no input on it apart from livestreams as has been confirmed by them. It is simply a questions of odds changing. No stealth nerfs so keep your pants on.

 

They could always phase some stuff out of the alert system rewards :|

[Notso]

They could always phase some stuff out of the alert system rewards :|

increase the probability of any given alert being a ? alert.