Question About Statements By De

[ThisOneIsAnnoyed]

Now, I'm curious about something that has been stated by DE a number of times. It's in regards to the number of players that Warframe has.

 

Most recently, we've gotten this in our email.

 

 

Now, looking at that, you might think, "Wow! Warframe has 4 million players!" But that's not what they said, is it? They said 4 million Tenno, capital T. Each warframe is also called a Tenno. Maybe they were just being cute and using the in-game-name for characters, but it doesn't feel like that number is correct, so let's analyze this.

 

There are currently 19 unique warframes you can acquire. 4 million divided by 19 comes out to 210,526. This is assuming every account has made all the warframes, but this number of "4 million" also includes every smurf, forum alt, and promotional-code-throwaway account that has been made. So to be fair, let's reduce the number per account to 15. 4 million divided by 15 comes out to 266,666. A long ways from 4 million, but nothing to sneeze at, right?

 

There was a livestream some time ago, and if you all could help me out here with which one or a link to it I would appreciate it, but there was a livestream where DESteve said quite specifically, "There are over 3 million Tenno". This was, I believe, roughly 4-5 months back. Now, at around that time, we didn't have Nekros, Nova, Vauban, or Mag Prime, so the total number of unique warframes was 15. 3 million divided by 15 comes out to 200,000, again with the assumption that every account had made every warframe.

 

These numbers reflect the total number of accounts in existence since the beginning of Closed Beta up through today. DE has previously stated that the majority of their players are using Steam. So let's look at Steam's info.

 

 

http://steamgraph.net/index.php?action=graph&appid=230410&from=1379057608

 

This is the number of people "playing" Warframe. This includes logging in to get your daily reward, logging in to set something to build in your foundry, and logging in to idle in chat. This certainly reflects the activity level of my clan, rather than the game gaining a million players.

 

If the majority of Warframe's players are using Steam, then it becomes much harder to accept the "3/4 million Tenno" number as the number of players rather than the number of warframes. They're simply not present.

 

When you create an account and login to the website, it also creates a forum account, but it only notates your account with when you first access the forums. If you scroll down to the bottom of the main forum page, you'll see this:

 

 

473,204 members is, again, a far cry from "3/4 million", and much more in line with the numbers I arrived at above. Additionally, the "6,595 most online" number really doesn't support a userbase in the millions. Since that number is based on the most concurrent users ever, in the history of the site, that includes big weekend events. In terms of Tenno, that would be .165% activity, and that number is just absurd on its face. Compared to 473,204, however, it would be 1.393%, and while that is still low, is somewhat more realistic.

 

If you've stuck with me so far, then thank you, and this brings me to the question I mentioned in the topic. DE: which numbers are correct? Is it 4 million players total, or 1/19th of that?

Edited October 14, 2013 by ThisOneIsAnnoyed

[Blatantfool]

 This made me curious too, honestly.

[plznohurtme]

I can guarantee you it means 4 million total accounts.

As for the steam graph that's peak concurrent people, not totals.

[Blatantfool]

I can guarantee you it means 4 million total accounts.

As for the steam graph that's peak concurrent people, not totals.

 

 This is what I initially figured too. Although even that seems weird to me. 

 

 4 million and other similarly huge totals is just a big enough number I can't help but feel it is just a marketing thing when I hear a Dev or Publisher or whatever throw it around.

[ChrisCtrlGaming]

I've just checked my emails and can't find this email anywhere, and I got my founders pack a couple of weeks back... when was this email sent (just wondering)

 

Edit: nevermind, I found it hiding in my spam folder...

Edited October 14, 2013 by ChrisCtrlGaming

[Valentine_Grim]

It was wrong to assume that every account has all the frames. There are people, who stick to their original 2-3 frame slots and either juggle frames over time or make their choice beforehand. Having ALL the frames, including Primes seems more like an exception than a rule.

[ThisOneIsAnnoyed]

It was wrong to assume that every account has all the frames. There are people, who stick to their original 2-3 frame slots and either juggle frames over time or make their choice beforehand. Having ALL the frames, including Primes seems more like an exception than a rule.

It's not wrong to assume something when you point it out ahead of time and make mention of it. We don't have other numbers to go off of, and anything else would be arbitrary and just as likely to be potentially inaccurate. If you have some alternate methodology you would like to present, please do so.

 

I can guarantee you it means 4 million total accounts.

As for the steam graph that's peak concurrent people, not totals.

You can guarantee it? Great! What information are you using? Please provide links to their sources, if you could.

Edited October 14, 2013 by ThisOneIsAnnoyed

[Blatantfool]

It was wrong to assume that every account has all the frames. There are people, who stick to their original 2-3 frame slots and either juggle frames over time or make their choice beforehand. Having ALL the frames, including Primes seems more like an exception than a rule.

 

 Technically that sorta supports what he was getting at, considering he was pointing out how bonkers that email's numbers are compared to what they actually seem to look like.

[FateZero]

Well we know there's at least 1 million registered user and that was back in April. So I don't doubt the chances of 4 million registered users now. Since Warframe went to E3, is going to be on PS4, many other conventions, websites, etc.

 

Now if you ask how many of the 4+million are regular players...idk.

[waaaaaaaals]

I automatically assumed it was marketing spin to make they use to make the playerbase seem much larger than it actually is, it's the kind of thing companies do all the time.

Still doesn't excuse it as an incredibly shallow way to go about promoting the game.

 

It was wrong to assume that every account has all the frames. There are people, who stick to their original 2-3 frame slots and either juggle frames over time or make their choice beforehand. Having ALL the frames, including Primes seems more like an exception than a rule.

There are people who stick to their original slots and keep making more frames / replacing their current frames, there are even people who have a foundry full of frames they don't have the space for.

It's not inconceivable that they're counting the total of completed warframes across the span of the game so far, perhaps even neglecting to subtract deleted frames from this total.

Edited October 14, 2013 by waaaaaaaals

[ThisOneIsAnnoyed]

Well we know there's at least 1 million registered user and that was back in April. So I don't doubt the chances of 4 million registered users now. Since Warframe went to E3, is going to be on PS4, many other conventions, websites, etc.

 

Now if you ask how many of the 4+million are regular players...idk.

Do we know this? What source are you using for this?

 

I'd like to be clear, I'm trying to be as accurate and precise as possible with this effort. If there aren't sources of information to back something up, it's not something you can credibly say with any reliability.

Edited October 14, 2013 by ThisOneIsAnnoyed

[SonicSonedit]

I can guarantee you it means 4 million total accounts.

As for the steam graph that's peak concurrent people, not totals.

Absolutely correct. Both.

[FateZero]

Do we know this? What source are you using for this?

 

I'd like to be clear, I'm trying to be as accurate and precise as possible with this effort. If there aren't sources of information to back something up, it's not something you can credibly say with any reliability.

...http://lmgtfy.com/?q=Warframe+1+million

Was that so hard, are you going to doubt the multiple sources? You know what, after looking at your profile, did you just make this account to troll? (Made a hour ago) Since you're clearly not a founder and shouldn't have gotten the email.

Edited October 14, 2013 by FateZero

[ThisOneIsAnnoyed]

...http://lmgtfy.com/?q=Warframe+1+million

Was that so hard, are you going to doubt the multiple sources? You know what, after looking at your profile, did you just make this account to troll? Since you're clearly not a founder and shouldn't have gotten the email.

Wow, please dial back the hostility there, this is a constructive thread. The only sources I see from googling those terms are a bunch of sites I've never seen before and Gamespot, which has a known history of outright fabrication and paid-for-reviews reporting. All the "articles" mentioning that number read nearly the same and were all from the same couple of days, and are most likely produced from a single press release document that was sent around, if not from each other.

I am, specifically, looking for first-hand sources of information. That press release document would be an example of one. If you find some that shed more light on this topic, please feel free to post them.

Edited October 14, 2013 by ThisOneIsAnnoyed

[tomhrio]

I can guarantee you it means 4 million total accounts.

As for the steam graph that's peak concurrent people, not totals.

It would still mean the game has less than 1% retention (people who play regularly after installing). If indeed 4m unique persons have tried the game and less than 1% liked it, something is very wrong.

[waaaaaaaals]

...http://lmgtfy.com/?q=Warframe+1+million

Was that so hard, are you going to doubt the multiple sources? You know what, after looking at your profile, did you just make this account to troll? Since you're clearly not a founder and shouldn't have gotten the email.

Lots of sites may have posted it but it doesn't seem to been verified or sourced back to a DE statement. Gaming journalism isn't exactly above daisy chaining news and blaming each other when they haven't personally verified what they're posting.

here is an interesting report where DE have apparently claimed to have three millions fans, not accounts, not warframes, fans.

Edited October 15, 2013 by jaywalker
Removed OT rhetoric

[FateZero]

Wow, please dial back the hostility there, this is a constructive thread. The only sources I see from googling those terms are a bunch of sites I've never seen before and Gamespot, which has a known history of outright fabrication and paid-for-reviews reporting.

I am, specifically, looking for first-hand sources of information. If you find some that shed more light on this topic, please feel free to post them.

You clearly do not know gaming sites, really polygon, vg247, co-optimus, examiner, joystiq, mmobomb, rockpapershotgun, etc. The sites you don't recognize are independent game journalist reposting and spreading the news. What do you want? Access to DE database? Cause that's the only first hand information that wouldn't go through a filter.

Also nice try with the up votes with your main account. Call me skeptic but hell it's the internet.

Also i just read your last point about only 420-430k members, that is for people who made their account directly from the site and have access to these forums, those do not include the steam user which should greatly outnumber the members with direct accounts. Not to mention all the other distribution sites like raptr which has ~193k members, I think's there gamerfirst, then the Asian country distribution sites, and etc.

Lots of sites may have posted it but it doesn't seem to been verified or sourced back to a DE statement. Gaming journalism isn't exactly above daisy chaining news and blaming each other when they haven't personally verified what they're posting.

here is in anteresting report where DE have apparently claimed to have three millions fans, not accounts, not warframes, fans.

As a side note I'm going to quote this article because it seems pretty interesting.

Are you suggesting fans are people that don't play the game, don't have an account, and that they made up a number? Right...
Oh btw same article around the same time but this one says users instead of fans. http://www.videogamer.com/pc/warframe/news/warframe_celebrates_3_million_users_with_update_9.html

Does DE not regular interact with their players? They are doing a million times better than Nexon for damn sure. Oh you must be one of those people who are expressing their ... about transparency aren't you? I'm not happy about it either but using it as point to discredit DE isn't a strong argument when DE_Steve did respond about that and has explained it, all we can do is sit and wait to see what happens next. By all means there are already plenty of topics about the issue which is where that issue should be discussed. That article was also from 6 months ago.

Yes I'm being defensive, another topic got me worked up and it's late. Edited October 14, 2013 by FateZero

[Webly]

tinfoil

I think you're a little paranoid dude.

[tomhrio]

Also i just read your last point about only 420-430k members, that is for people who made their account directly from the site and have access to these forums, those do not include the steam user which should greatly outnumber the members with direct accounts.

 

I'm a "steam user". Didn't need to make an additional forum account or anything, its the same thing as if you got your game directly from here.

[Azure_Kytia]

And so interactive that they pay attention only to those who forked over hundreds of dollars and ignore everyone else, no matter how right they may be or good their idea is.

Thanks for that, ive been needing a good laugh.

 

Hahah, yeah, no. They don't even listen to them, sorry!

[FateZero]

Naive

Internet

 

I'm a "steam user". Didn't need to make an additional forum account or anything, its the same thing as if you got your game directly from here.

Direct website accounts can use steam to play. Did you make your account on steam or on the website first? I can't test it unless I want to make a whole new steam account just to test it, which I'm not.

Edited October 14, 2013 by FateZero

[waaaaaaaals]

Are you suggesting fans are people that don't play the game, don't have an account, and that they made up a number? Right...

Of course fans don't automatically equal players.

Also I bet if you added up twitter followers, twitch subscribers, facebook likes, accounts, tumblr rubbish and whatever else you can imagine they'd hit somewhere around the number of "fans". A line of thinking even brought up on the comment section of that page.

 

Oh btw same article around the same time but this one says users instead of fans. http://www.videogamer.com/pc/warframe/news/warframe_celebrates_3_million_users_with_update_9.html

With the same kind of thinking laid out in the OP, they could easily make the jump from "fans" to "users". For all we know there was a very PR spin-heavy press release going about.

 

 

Does DE not regular interact with their players? They are doing a million times better than Nexon for damn sure. Oh you must be one of those people who are expressing their ... about transparency aren't you? I'm not happy about it either but using it as point to discredit DE isn't a strong argument when DE_Steve did respond about that and has explained it, all we can do is sit and wait to see what happens next. By all means there are already plenty of topics about the issue which is where that issue to be discussed.

 

Yes I'm being defensive, another topic got me worked up and it's late.

How is this million times better than Nexon quantified? I really wouldn't like to get things wrong at this stage.

Also I'm not sure what my "..." is, nor am I sure about how I'm trying to discredit DE. I simply quoted something I found interesting.

[ThisOneIsAnnoyed]

You clearly do not know gaming sites, really polygon, vg247, co-optimus, examiner, joystiq, mmobomb, rockpapershotgun, etc. The sites you don't recognize are independent game journalist reposting and spreading the news. What do you want? Access to DE database? Cause that's the only first hand information that wouldn't go through a filter.

Also nice try with the up votes with your main account. Call me skeptic but hell it's the internet.

Also i just read your last point about only 420-430k members, that is for people who made their account directly from the site and have access to these forums, those do not include the steam user which should greatly outnumber the members with direct accounts.

Are you suggesting fans are people that don't play the game, don't have an account, and that they made up a number? Right...

Oh btw same article around the same time but this one says users instead of fans. http://www.videogamer.com/pc/warframe/news/warframe_celebrates_3_million_users_with_update_9.html

Does DE not regular interact with their players? They are doing a million times better than Nexon for damn sure. Oh you must be one of those people who are expressing their ... about transparency aren't you? I'm not happy about it either but using it as point to discredit DE isn't a strong argument when DE_Steve did respond about that and has explained it, all we can do is sit and wait to see what happens next. By all means there are already plenty of topics about the issue which is where that issue should be discussed. That article was also from 6 months ago.

Yes I'm being defensive, another topic got me worked up and it's late.

 

If you're just now reading parts of my post after you already tried responding to it, I would request that you go back and read it in its entirety before you go any further.

 

You clearly put a lot of faith in gaming sites who, as has been mentioned earlier in the thread, use each other as sources without verification or fact-checking. Again, I am interested in a first-hand source of information. DE is a first-hand source, as is Steam.

 

Are you suggesting that words are not what they mean? If they meant players, why not say players? If they meant user, why not say users? You are reading what you want to see from that statement, rather than what they are actually saying. Being a fan of a baseball team does not mean you play for that team, or even play the sport at all, does it?

 

Please try to restrain yourself from projecting your own biases here; as has been stated numerous times I would like to keep this effort accurate and factually based, rather than relying on hearsay and opinions/feelings.

[Xehanoth]

Hahah, yeah, no. They don't even listen to them, sorry!

So you paid money to have them listen to you and they arent even attempting to listen..

And they wonder why things are as bad as they are.

[Blatantfool]

So you paid money to have them listen to you and they arent even attempting to listen..

And they wonder why things are as bad as they are.

 

 You pay money to get a ton of discounted plat and some swag. Nowhere on the package does it say your feedback will suddenly matter more.

 

 To be honest, I prefer it that way. DC doesn't have the best track record when it comes to picking for the community.