Give Up Farming Vermillion Storm, There's Literally Only 0.016% Chance.

[Twilight053]

Did you know that there are literally only 0.016% chance of a Bombard Manic to drop Vermillion Storm?

 

A mod's drop has a drop chance of 2.5%, which means only 1 out of 40 enemies drop mods. Furthermore, a mod's drop table is separated into three categories, there are 75% of chance that the mod will be common, 22.5% chance that it will be uncommon, and only 2.5% of the mod drops are rare, which means only 1 out of 40 mod drops are rare. As Manic Bombard has four rare mods in his table (Fusion Core, Sanctuary, Sure Footed, Vermillion Storm), it means only 1 out of 4 rare mod drops are Vermillion Storm.

 

Only one out of forty Manic Bombards drops mods, and only one out of forty mods are rare, and only one out of four rare mods are Vermillion Storm. What does this means? If we apply the calculation: 40 x 40 x 4 = 6,400, you have to kill 6,400 Manic Bombards to guarantee a Vermillion Storm. By converting the numbers into raw percentage, we get: 100% / 6,400 = 0.015625% or roughly 0.016% chance of a Bombard Manic to drop Vermillion Storm.

 

It's just RNG, a very cruel RNG. If it makes you feel better, I suggest you resort to haul your work for Simaris and try transmutation cores.

Edited May 20, 2015 by Twilight053

[MrPie5]

[Stouty22]

Did you know that there are literally only 0.016% chance of a Bombard Manic to drop Vermillion Storm?

 

A mod's drop has a drop chance of 2.5%, which means only 1 out of 40 enemies drop mods. Furthermore, a mod's drop table is separated into three categories, there are 75% of chance that the mod will be common, 22.5% chance that it will be uncommon, and only 2.5% of the mod drops are rare, which means only 1 out of 40 mod drops are rare. As Manic Bombard has four rare mods in his table (Fusion Core, Sanctuary, Sure Footed, Vermillion Storm), it means only 1 out of 4 rare mod drops are Vermillion Storm.

 

Only one out of forty Manic Bombards drops mods, and only one out of forty mods are rare, and only one out of four rare mods are Vermillion Storm. What does this means? If we apply the calculation: 40 x 40 x 4 = 6,400, you have to kill 6,400 Manic Bombards to guarantee a Vermillion Storm. By converting the numbers into raw percentage, we get: 100% / 6,400 = 0.015625% or roughly 0.016% chance of a Bombard Manic to drop Vermillion Storm.

 

It's just RNG, a very cruel RNG. If it makes you feel better, I suggest you resort to haul your work for Simaris and try transmutation cores.

 

 

I've dealt with worse odds. Borderlands 1 has prepped me for this games RNG madness.

[(PSN)ltachiUchiha4700]

Vermillion storm.... or 4 riders!?

[(PSN)WiiConquered]

The only thing wrong with this... is that killing 6400 Bombard Manics doesn't guarantee anything. You'd actually only have roughly a 3 in 4 chance of getting it by that point.

[MechaGent]

-snip-

 

While the numbers basically work out the same in this instance, in that drop chance is 000.01675042%, but the way its calculated is slightly different. Also, the remainder of the numbers will be in decimal form, because I find that easier to work with, personally. The constants are actually

 

COMMON = 0.755

UNCOMMON = 0.220

RARE = 0.020

LEGENDARY = 0.005

 

What one is supposed to do is to note which rarities are present in a particular drop table, then remove the constants not present, then normalize using the sum of the remaining constants, which in this case means:

 

COMMON = 0.75879

UNCOMMON = 0.22111

RARE = 0.02010

 

One then divides each of those by the number of mods present, to give us:

 

COMMON = 0.18970

UNCOMMON = 0.07370

RARE = 0.00670

 

Finally, we multiply each of those by 0.025 (the general drop rate) to get the final drop rate for a particular mod of a certain rarity:

 

COMMON = 0.0047424623

UNCOMMON = 0.0018425461

RARE = 0.0001675042

 

Please forgive me the erratic sig figs, as I'm basically retyping all of these figures out of a spreadsheet I whipped up for personal use. Moving swiftly forward, though, we come to the problem of farming efficiency; namely, how many of a particular enemy would we need to kill to have a certain chance of a particular mod having dropped one of those times? The answer lies with binomial distributions, and I'm not going to explain that, because I barely remember it myself. Suffice it to say that a formula is provided which, when given number of kills and drop probability, will output the chance of it having dropped from one of those kills. As brute force appears to be the best way to do this for now, one needs to extend this formula for as long as their program can handle smoothly, which in my case is 30110. Then, you just use a vertical lookup to find the probability you were looking for, and return the number of cases necessary to achieve that, statistically. If my formulas and numbers are all correct, please consider the following:

 

For a 50% chance of a particular mod dropping, one would need to kill:

COMMON: 146 enemies

UNCOMMON: 376 enemies

RARE: 4138 enemies

 

@75%:

COMMON: 292 enemies

UNCOMMON: 752 enemies

RARE: 8276 enemies

 

@90%:

COMMON: 485 enemies

UNCOMMON: 1249 enemies

RARE: 13746 enemies

 

Thoughts?

 

EDIT: woops, just noticed that I used the Manic's drop numbers, not the Manic Bombard's, but the point still stands.

Edited May 20, 2015 by MechaGent

[MonkeyWaffles]

that percentage needs to be adjusted to the chances of the "kill manic bombard" mission being offered instead of the "sabotage clone tubes" mission. not all runs gives you that mission.

[osuman]

Vermillion storm.... or 4 riders!?

title and op say Vermilion Storm

[MechaGent]

that percentage needs to be adjusted to the chances of the "kill manic bombard" mission being offered instead of the "sabotage clone tubes" mission. not all runs gives you that mission.

 

If you'd be so kind as to source me that percentage, I'd do so happily. Well, I dunno if 'happily' is the right word, but, enthusiastically, at least...

[MonkeyWaffles]

If you'd be so kind as to source me that percentage, I'd do so happily. Well, I dunno if 'happily' is the right word, but, enthusiastically, at least...

 

honestly don't know the exact percentage, but since there are only two mission types for backing Nef Anyo, then lets just assume its a 50/50 chance to get the appropriate mission type. So does that make it 0.008% chance of it dropping while doing a single Nef Anyo mission?

[ThePresident777]

Yep and that's why this mod doesn't matter.  It doesn't exist.  It's just a cake.

 

Say it with me, "SCREW OFF, RNGESSUS, YOU'RE NOT THE BOSS OF ME!!!!"

[hotbeast]

This is just ridiculous, why put it in the drop table at all? Might as well ask people to transmute for it when its almost impossible to get from drops

[Twilight053]

The only thing wrong with this... is that killing 6400 Bombard Manics doesn't guarantee anything. You'd actually only have roughly a 3 in 4 chance of getting it by that point.

In contrast, it is possible to get three to four Vermillion Storms within 6,400 Manic Bombards to negate the chances of not getting it at all. The numbers I am determining is purely statistical average.

[(PSN)WiiConquered]

In contrast, it is possible to get three to four Vermillion Storms within 6,400 Manic Bombards to negate the chances of not getting it at all. The numbers I am determining is purely statistical average.

I know. My point is just that, in theory, 1 in 4 people still wouldn't have it by their 6,400 Manic Bombard kill.

[Davoodoo]

Tbh 1 in 40 enemies dropping rare is very optimistic compared to reality where 1000 kills yields at average 2 mod drops.

 

Only logical explanation would be if enemies had only 2% to drop mod before its even decided how rare it is.

Edited May 20, 2015 by Davoodoo

[_FrostPrime_]

OP made a very cool story. But...

 

When can I have my tinfoil hat back?

Edited May 20, 2015 by _FrostPrime_

[HibikiGanaha]

That's the expected number of kills, it won't guarantee a drop if you get 6400 kills.

 

It's like guaranteeing to get a heads on two flips of a coin.  Flipping two times won't guarantee a heads, but you should expect to flip twice to get a heads.

 

Edit: looks like wiiconquered and mechagent already explained that.

Edited May 20, 2015 by HibikiGanaha

[MechaGent]

honestly don't know the exact percentage, but since there are only two mission types for backing Nef Anyo, then lets just assume its a 50/50 chance to get the appropriate mission type. So does that make it 0.008% chance of it dropping while doing a single Nef Anyo mission?

 

I think so, yeah.

 

EDIT: Does anyone know how well Google Docs spreadsheets handle big data sets? If they can handle it better than OpenOffice, I'll throw together a calculator after I get back from class.

Edited May 20, 2015 by MechaGent

[Im_All_In]

Math...

http://replygif.net/i/272.gif

[zoboso]

-snip-

 

Say it with me, "SCREW OFF, RNGESSUS, YOU'RE NOT THE BOSS OF ME!!!!"

[(PSN)DanteVincent]

I'll transmute this one, or at least try to lol.

 

Heard ppl saying the stance is terribad and seems unfinished tho. Maybe the best we can do is wait?

[Twilight053]

That's the expected number of kills, it won't guarantee a drop if you get 6400 kills.

 

It's like guaranteeing to get a heads on two flips of a coin.  Flipping two times won't guarantee a heads, but you should expect to flip twice to get a heads.

 

Edit: looks like wiiconquered and mechagent already explained that.

In contrast, it is possible to get two or even more Vermillion Storms within 6,400 Manic Bombards to negate the chances of not getting it at all. The numbers I am determining is purely statistical average.

[MechaGent]

Conversion complete.

 

Here's the link raw for The Calculator:

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/156r8hXP2jaI1ES0_Aql02BEQCUeDuojSIay_8Br0XGY/edit?usp=sharing

 

EDIT: Can't seem to format my post correctly.

EDIT: Yay me.

EDIT: removed frustration from post text.

Edited May 20, 2015 by MechaGent

[(PSN)BlackGuyver82]

How do your chances increase with the use of a nekros and hydroid?

[Davoodoo]

How do your chances increase with the use of a nekros and hydroid?

Every hydroid kill and nekros succesful desecrate will simply add another attempt at reward, if you use both you pretty much killed every enemy 3 times.