TraumaHunter Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 (edited) Warning - math ahead:There are 10 artifacts.4 vauban parts have dropped since he was first introduced on the 17th. (It has been 18 days since hes been released)One part on the 20th, two parts on the 24th and one part on the 26th....since then we have had an unusual dry spell... Odd that all of the parts fell within 6 days yet its been 18 since his release. Improbable yes. But not exactly enough to say we are "unlucky" yet.there have been 82 artifact drops since his release.so roughly 4.5 artifacts are dropped a day in our sample size10 artifacts + the 2 "Vauban artifacts" = 121/12=.08333 - should be the chance of a part. (We will assume only 2 artifacts are added to the 10 total artifacts since they said "2 of the parts are as rare as artifacts - even if you want to argue against this in the next step we give CONSIDERABLE edge to the math and we pretend that all 4 parts are considered artifact drops. This is because there is no way to be certain what part was the "rare" part that is supposedly rarer than an artifact.)4/82=.04878 is what the actual chances are based on the sample size so far.So ... its safe to say that it is around HALF as common as they say it is. (and this is with very generous math that considers all 4 parts as equatable. That number could even be HALF of what we are saying here if the "rare part" is the systems which dropped twice. So a potential 1/4th as common as they say it is.Inb4 "RNG is RNG and your math just means that we are unbelievably and extra-ordinarily unlucky."This isn't a complaint so much as is a summoning mechanism.Now that I have created this topic and pleaded for a vauban helmet - it will appear when I fall asleep 2 hours from now. Set your timers to be awake people. I'm feeling unlucky tonight :) I've got a bucket to hold my tears when I wake up tomorrow.EDIT: Typo Edited June 4, 2013 by TraumaHunter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGUNITALPHA Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 DE should make a set of 12-hour long vauban alerts for all 3 parts just to make up for their huge "they'll be as common as artifacts" lie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iBrigandi Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 *out of no where someone comes out and says its RNG* no the probability are terribly skewed and this RNG is DE trolling us. Well I guess nothing we can do except play WaRNGframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cknives Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Yeah i knew it was bullS#&$ when they said they where as common as artifacts. Vauban would be the most common warframe. They really should have just added him to the void or something and be done with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nanogenesis Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 But its RNG... luul Rigged Number Generator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soulie Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Yea I missed the first 2 alerts, because the alarm on my phone simply wont. go. loud enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Notso Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 (edited) OP, good maths, but you should be saying twice as rare, not half as rare, when you start talking about 4/84 versus 1/12. On the other hand, the sample size isn't really large enough yet to safely say the parts aren't as common as artifacts. Edited June 4, 2013 by Notso Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaibah Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Yeah, it sucks. Why are there even so many artifacts anyway? Why not have more for the stuff that only comes from alerts (like Jaw Sword for example). Anyway, I was able to get the first two Vauban alerts, but missed the 3rd cause it appeared at like 5am in the morning here. :( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kysulli Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 The current alert system is flawed because it only has space for a finite number of items. It is a dead end system. Every item will be rare if it has to compete with a multitude of other items for a spot, especially if an item already has a lower probability of being selected compared to other times in the pool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TraumaHunter Posted June 4, 2013 Author Share Posted June 4, 2013 OP, good maths, but you should be saying twice as rare, not half as rare, when you start talking about 4/84 versus 1/12. On the other hand, the sample size isn't really large enough yet to safely say the parts aren't as common as artifacts. typo - thanks lol I put "half as common" in the bold part. It IS 3 am for me xD Surprised there were only 2 typos. I would say the sample size is large enough personally. 80 is a lot. considering all of the parts dropped within a spree that lasted 1/3 the total sample size - its not a bad sample size at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-Wild_Hunt- Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 All I know is i wouldn't complain to a vauban chasis alert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Korevas Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 The current alert system is flawed because it only has space for a finite number of items. It is a dead end system. Every item will be rare if it has to compete with a multitude of other items for a spot, especially if an item already has a lower probability of being selected compared to other times in the pool. Every item will be rare, but the rare ones will be a lot rarer still. Yea, it sucks. but I do think they are looking into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeseHasLeafs Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 I think that their actual 'drop rate' in the loot tables is the same. That is, they have the same percentage to appear as artifacts. But the fact that there're already so many artifacts, plus the fact that there're only three Vauban parts (And the fact that most people are hunting a specific one) means that the percentage of getting what you want is really quite low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Notso Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 (edited) typo - thanks lol I put "half as common" in the bold part. It IS 3 am for me xD Surprised there were only 2 typos. I would say the sample size is large enough personally. 80 is a lot. considering all of the parts dropped within a spree that lasted 1/3 the total sample size - its not a bad sample size at all. Well doing the math with Hypotheses Tests, there's a 14% chance that we're incorrectly saying the probability is different [if we take the example with all Vauban parts], and a 2.5% chance if we take it as 2 of the parts. Okay, I guess I agree with you. :P Put that in the OP if you want. Convince more people. Edited June 4, 2013 by Notso Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGUNITALPHA Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 I think that their actual 'drop rate' in the loot tables is the same. That is, they have the same percentage to appear as artifacts. But the fact that there're already so many artifacts, plus the fact that there're only three Vauban parts (And the fact that most people are hunting a specific one) means that the percentage of getting what you want is really quite low. pretty sure we've seen every actual artifact recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olev Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Correct me if I'm wrong, I'm pretty sure there have been at least 3 energy siphons on offer since vauban was announced (isn't that supposed to be the rare artifact?) and there have been quite a lot of alt helmet alerts (ended up with 2 saryn hemlocks in 2 days). I'd say that the odds are a bit borked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NovaKiller Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 RNG sucks, and that is why a token system could be so much better. Atleast imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BloodKitten Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 you have 2 options, buy its, or deal with it and hope whatever parts you need will pop up. this alert system seem like it has a week or 2 of something every time, befor the reset there were tons of potatoes alerts, now, there bearly any, a few weeks from now another sea of potatos, or vauban parts, just give it some time and you'll eventually get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.Monday Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 What is random. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Exit. Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Very buggy and not very fun. Wait until this game official release. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venus-Venera Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Very buggy and not very fun. Wait until this game official release. this want happen. it will be always beta. btw. vauban + stakler set = super fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArsVampyre Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Where did they ever say it would as common as artifacts? I must've missed that. I know Rebecca said more common than Reactors/Catalyst BP's. Right now even that's questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-HAKUNA-YOUR-TATAS- Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Very buggy and not very fun. Wait until this game official release. I think when it does go full release it may be worse, with regards to freebies, drops, materials, etc. In the 2 months I've played I've been lucky to be able to farm almost all frames (lacking Vauban) in a reasonable amount of time, find the materials I need, and the mods that I want. However since Update 8 it's taking 200% more effort to get control modules, fusion cores, etc. I can only imagine how rough it is for people starting new and/or folks who reset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Notso Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Where did they ever say it would as common as artifacts? I must've missed that. I know Rebecca said more common than Reactors/Catalyst BP's. Right now even that's questionable. They said it in a livestream, I think it was #5. Not sure how far in. Also Blatantfool said so, and community mods get told this kind of stuff to keep us quiet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bauchelain Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 That's the deal with RNG. They can claim that it's random but secretly make the appearance rates ridiculously low, and no one can prove anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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