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Warframe And Poisson Distributions


Renegade343
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So I was blowing up Kubrow Dens on Earth to obtain Kubrow Eggs, and I was getting numb in my mind. So, I started to time myself, and calculate the average of Kubrow Dens destroyed in five minutes (solo option). I took five trials, and obtained the values: 

 

5

3

6

5

4

 

And so, the mean is: 

 

(5+3+6+5+4)/5 = 4.6

 

And then, since I was thinking about multiples of 25 while I was playing, I then asked myself this question: 

 

I destroy Kubrow Dens at an average rate of 4.6 per five minutes, independent of each interval. What is the probability I can destroy 25 Kubrow Dens?

 

And so, since I have identified this question as requiring Poisson distribution to solve (events are independent of each other, and of each interval, and I known the average rate), I attempted the question: 

 

X ~ Po(4.6)

P(X = r) = ([e^-m]*[m^r])/r! (where m = average rate)

P(X = 25) = ([e^-4.6]*[4.6^25])/25! = 2.40 * 10^-11

 

Quite a low chance, no? 

 

And Vay Hek really likes his Poissons.

 

And I am not sorry. At all.

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So I was blowing up Kubrow Dens on Earth to obtain Kubrow Eggs, and I was getting numb in my mind. So, I started to time myself, and calculate the average of Kubrow Dens destroyed in five minutes (solo option). I took five trials, and obtained the values: 

 

5

3

6

5

4

 

And so, the mean is: 

 

(5+3+6+5+4)/5 = 4.6

 

And then, since I was thinking about multiples of 25 while I was playing, I then asked myself this question: 

 

I destroy Kubrow Dens at an average rate of 4.6 per five minutes, independent of each interval. What is the probability I can destroy 25 Kubrow Dens?

 

And so, since I have identified this question as requiring Poisson distribution to solve (events are independent of each other, and of each interval, and I known the average rate), I attempted the question: 

 

X ~ Po(4.6)

P(X = r) = ([e^-m]*[m^r])/r! (where m = average rate)

P(X = 25) = ([e^-4.6]*[4.6^25])/25! = 2.40 * 10^-11

 

Quite a low chance, no? 

 

And Vay Hek really likes his Poissons.

 

And I am not sorry. At all.

 

Dafudge is this e.e"

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