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@de I Suggest You Strongly Look At Your Current Drop Rates.


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Ok! So i woke up with a goal in mind today. This goal was to be several hours or 1-2 days before posting this but after tonight i am not going to even bother atempting the rest of it.

 

So my goal was to be like a noobie not wanting to pay for anything yet and wanted to farm my very own Void Key. We know Void keys drop from the same missions as Banshee parts. For those that don't know these would be Spy, Raid, Capture, Endless Defense missions in the random finish reward.

 

So since U8 was released i farmed endless defense missions with so far still not 1 Void key dropped from a endless defense mission. So the other day i figured hey i'll try a raid mission. And low and behold a T1 Raid dropped. So i did another raid got another T1 raid key. So i wanted to press my luck did a Spy mission woot got a T2 Raid key. So this then brought in me thinking what if i wanted to farm these as a new player. So i got the idea to sit on my arse and run each type of mission till i recieved a key and would start another mission till i got a key there and was goingt o repeat to see if there was a slight average.

 

So the begining i figured defense just are not dropping them for me so since raid dropped 2 i'll start there move to Spy missions then capture, then back to defense. Well here's my results:

 

Raid Missions: 5 hours straight, 176 missions ran - NOT ONE KEY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Now i understand in the last live steam Steve said he doesn't want players burning through the content. Well come on 5 hours and not even 1 trip to the Void. <<< Has to be a joke right!

 

So after my 5 hours for nothing i am writing this as i am not going to even bother trying the rest of the missions. Now as thinking of a new player coming and seeing all this new content. I honestly feel they wouldn't last long at all before rage quitting and moving on to another game thus DE losing potential money spenders. And getting a bad reveiw to that persons friends as Warface basically looking the way it is now pretty much Pay to Progress/ get content. <<<< Specially after getting a veiw of the forma needed to make any of the Dojo, Dojo weapons.

 

Now before you all going saying there's tons of players looking for players to join them in the void. That's fine but look at the other side ok i went with so-so 5 times to the void he either paid for keys or got really really really lucky. But i would like to return the favor for so-so taking me to the Void. Player starts farming gets nothing at all hours go by days go by. Ends up saying F it. Rage quits. Player lost.

 

Now this wouldn't be so bad if this was a huge content infested mass MMORPG. But warframe is far from that It lacks severly in content Keys are only dropped from ramdom alerts, daily login, and well farming the same mission over and over and over and over and over and over again.

 

I am sorry DE but this content locking via this key IMO is a bad idea and the more i test it and look at it the worse it gets. Ex. Void Key package 75 Platium for 5 random keys. That's $5 spent for 5 runs to the Void 5 visits to new content.

 

Newest DLC from pretty much any game on Steam $0-$20 depending on the game. Now at those prices that DLC you can play whenever you want anytime you want for 20 trips to the new content here.

 

So conclusion you need to take a step back a deep breath relax and take a good hard long look into your drop rates and the way your putting out new content. Before you know it this is going to bite you in the arse. So best to fix it now.

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Unlike what some dataminers may have suggested thus far its common knowlege that certain maps have higher drop rates for certain items.

Just like some maps have better chances at dropping certain banshee parts and will continue to drop THAT part.

There are a few confirmed planets in the stickied topic about boss location and special drops.

No one has taken the time to figure out what planets drop keys more than others.

It is a VERY tedious and time consuming thing - I started to work on trying to find maps that drop them - didn't really get too far in the long scheme of things though - never found a really good planet for them.



Point is- if you were doing the same mission over and over and over 176 times then its safe to say keys don't have a good chance at dropping there.  Move onto a new planet and try there - Right now if you don't feel like running raid/capture/etc then I suggest you just do defense to wave 5-15.  Keys will drop there.  And they drop pretty consistently.
 

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Point is- if you were doing the same mission over and over and over 176 times then its safe to say keys don't have a good chance at dropping there.  Move onto a new planet and try there - Right now if you don't feel like running raid/capture/etc then I suggest you just do defense to wave 5-15.  Keys will drop there.  And they drop pretty consistently.

 

 

 

No that was 176 Raid missions planet hopping. Not just the same over and over. And if you would have read i have not had a key drop from any defense mission since the release of U8 i did a good 3 days of defense missions.

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Unlike what some dataminers may have suggested thus far its common knowlege that certain maps have higher drop rates for certain items.

Just like some maps have better chances at dropping certain banshee parts and will continue to drop THAT part.

There are a few confirmed planets in the stickied topic about boss location and special drops.

No one has taken the time to figure out what planets drop keys more than others.

It is a VERY tedious and time consuming thing - I started to work on trying to find maps that drop them - didn't really get too far in the long scheme of things though - never found a really good planet for them.

Point is- if you were doing the same mission over and over and over 176 times then its safe to say keys don't have a good chance at dropping there.  Move onto a new planet and try there - Right now if you don't feel like running raid/capture/etc then I suggest you just do defense to wave 5-15.  Keys will drop there.  And they drop pretty consistently.

 

That sounds like RNG based confirmation bias

 

The data miner only found 1 set of drop tables for each kind of mission type. If there was 1 for each mission/planet i think hed find it.

 

 

 

To OP: The chance to find a key at a RAID mission is a little less than 1%. So you had bad luck.

Edited by cknives
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That sounds like RNG based confirmation bias

 

The data miner only found 1 set of drop tables for each kind of mission type. If there was 1 for each mission/planet i think hed find it.

 

To OP: The chance to find a key at a RAID mission is a little less than 1%. So you had bad luck.

 

The forums are so rife with people who don't understand this concept it brings a tear to my eye. Also gambler's fallacy, but that's another issue.

 

I wish DE would just come clean with drop rates, then everybody could stop complaining.

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That sounds like RNG based confirmation bias

 

The data miner only found 1 set of drop tables for each kind of mission type. If there was 1 for each mission/planet i think hed find it.

 

 

 

To OP: The chance to find a key at a RAID mission is a little less than 1%. So you had bad luck.

 

 

Till you have physical proof Do not quote percentages of a mission.

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Till you have physical proof Do not quote percentages of a mission.

What else am i going to do?

 

Quote the grand masters that found 5 T3 keys in 5 runs? I think my faith is lacking.

 

Sorry im a programmy, mathy kind of guy. The data mined drop tables look like the real deal so i will quote them unless some one comes up with better data.

 

So far i have not found anything that contradicts the data.

Edited by cknives
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Ridiculous droprate are here to increase the "artificial" longevity of the game and to make money ofc by selling void keys pack, mod packs and stuff.

 

I really doubt they ' ll change anything.

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That sounds like RNG based confirmation bias

 

The data miner only found 1 set of drop tables for each kind of mission type. If there was 1 for each mission/planet i think hed find it.

 

 

 

To OP: The chance to find a key at a RAID mission is a little less than 1%. So you had bad luck.

As someone who HAS datamined before - its not a perfect or flawless thing.

When you see a set of values sometimes they don't translate as well as you would think they do.  Sometimes you miss out on entire strands because you assume they are something else and they weren't offset in a similar manner as other strands.

There ARE confirmed instances with dozens of members confirming certain drop rates on planets differ from others.

I trust dozens of people over the imperfect process of data mining/ 1 persons word about those datamined values/mechanics/tables.

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As someone who HAS datamined before - its not a perfect or flawless thing.

When you see a set of values sometimes they don't translate as well as you would think they do.  Sometimes you miss out on entire strands because you assume they are something else and they weren't offset in a similar manner as other strands.

There ARE confirmed instances with dozens of members confirming certain drop rates on planets differ from others.

I trust dozens of people over the imperfect process of data mining/ 1 persons word about those datamined values/mechanics/tables.

I understand data mining is not perfect. Ive done some for wow in the past.

 

My own extensive data matches the defense tier 1 drop table perfectly.

 

I don't have enough personal data for the other drop tables.

 

If you have any solid data to dispute the data mined drop tables i would love to see it.

 

Please link me to the confirmed instances.

Edited by cknives
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I understand data mining is not perfect. Ive done some for wow in the past.

 

My own extensive data matches the defense tier 1 drop table perfectly.

 

I don't have enough personal data for the other drop tables.

 

If you have any solid data to dispute the data mined drop tables i would love to see it.

 

Please link me to the confirmed instances.

 

It's hard to validate tables provided by datamining if you can't do it yourself, but at this point I'm pretty much convinced the tables are true, just because they have been discussed extensively and nobody has proven them to be wrong. They are far too specific to be randomly made up and we do get more information almost by the day now.

The latest advancement now already has people trying to predict possible future wave rewards even, if they manage to do this it should really be as much proven as it gets, see here

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It's hard to validate tables provided by datamining if you can't do it yourself, but at this point I'm pretty much convinced the tables are true, just because they have been discussed extensively and nobody has proven them to be wrong. They are far too specific to be randomly made up and we do get more information almost by the day now.

The latest advancement now already has people trying to predict possible future wave rewards even, if they manage to do this it should really be as much proven as it gets, see here

That link is awesome. Will have to try predicting some drops :P

 

 

PS: its hilarious that hellfire is in there 2x and DE hasn't bothered to at least fix that part. Even after every one complained about non stop hellfire drops

Edited by cknives
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i think i'm having a bout of deja-vu, i remember seeing a thread about drop rates before, a hundred times. i must be seeing things

This sort thing will continue un DE sort it it and appease us players.

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https://forums.warframe.com/index.php?/topic/56949-void-drop-rates-void-keys-drop-rates-void-key-pack-drop-rates/

plz read this, so u can have a basic idea to farm void key. i really have no problem farming them got 2 T1 from venus easily yesterday and 1 T2 from neptune today. T3 keys are extremely rare, but well, they are supposed to be rare anyway

DE_Steve goes so far as to post their loot table code here, but a proper expose of its flaws can only be found on reddit?

 

Cruel, cruel world.

Edited by IcarusNine
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This sort thing will continue un DE sort it it and appease us players.

What does making multiple threads about the same topic do except make the forums hard to read? Unless every thread costs DE a dollar then I'm afraid the purpose of spamming is lost on me.

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What does making multiple threads about the same topic do except make the forums hard to read? Unless every thread costs DE a dollar then I'm afraid the purpose of spamming is lost on me.

Now where did I say I condone this as you're implying? Am the spamming up the forums? no. Will this spam continue? yes.

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What does making multiple threads about the same topic do except make the forums hard to read? Unless every thread costs DE a dollar then I'm afraid the purpose of spamming is lost on me.

"Spamming"? I personally don't think so, and it's possible for one, even two threads on the same subject to get pushed down and out of sight (not saying there are ONLY one or two threads like this mind you...) but more threads there are on something, the bigger of a problem DE realizes it is/more they see the community has a problem with it.

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So i tried the prediction thing using the info from here http://www.reddit.com/r/Warframe/comments/1fl18h/defense_mission_rewards_and_scaling/

 

Take this with a grain of salt!

 

Since im tired and lazy i only did 1 test run and even this test run has a very small sample size of 3 wave rewards.

 

Started IO jupiter

 

Wave 5:  fast deflection.  that's either 0.0632 - 0.1264 or 0.1896 - 0.2528 (tier 1 defense drop table)

 

Wave 10: piercing hit. that's 0.2775 - 0.3021 (tier 2 defense table)

 

Wave 15: Hellfire 0.0 - 0.1879 or 0.4170 - 0.6067 (since there are 2 hellfires in the table)(tier 3 drop table)

 

The math

 

Since they are all in ranges i took the max values to calculate the difference with. It coudl be off by a decent chunk but not enough to escape the hellfire drop range on T3.

 

If it was the first deflection the increment was 0.1789 so added together with the 0.3021 from the piercing hit it should put me at 0.4810 which is in the range of the second hellfire. ( so i my math could be off by -7 or + 12 and it would still hit a hellfire. The ranges where not hat big.

 

If it was the second deflection the increment would have been 0.0493 added to the 0.3021 it would have been 0.3514 which as per the loot table would have been heated charge.

 

This obviously proves nothing since its only 1 trial but it was spot on.

 

Maybe if i get bored tomorrow ill run 20 or 25 waves and try to narrow it down more.

 

Its a pain to do all this math while trying to solo infested :P ( i was trying to do it ahead of time to predict what i would get)

 

 

PS: I wish i had gotten something other than hellfire to make it easier to figure out.

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