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Ivara Chassis (PC)

Cirayu

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Cirayu

Cirayu

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I am SURE there is some bug or something with getting ivara's Chassis, I've done over 120 spy missions in 6 days, with  doing 12 hours today alone, And still not chassis., I did however encounter a bug where for some reason a single laser wall, the same wall each time, was completely invisible yet acted like lasers. Which is stupid. but is there ANYTHING I can do to increase my chances of getting this IMPOSSIBLY HARD to get item?  I have tried Lua but it's too hard and slow to do "easily" while Jupiter + Europa are easy.  At the moment, the chance of me NOT getting the chassis is at like 0.05%, and yet I still don't have it. I seriously think I am the unluckiest person... game/rng wise anyway

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Cirayu

Cirayu

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On ‎11‎/‎09‎/‎2016 at 3:38 AM, ScorpioneITA said:

No bug. It's just a low %. Plus being unlucky doesn't help. My friend got a full set in 13total tries. Im unlucky didn't bother, farmed plat in few hrs and bought her for plat. 

I am so sure it IS a bug though, I did 130 runs now, and I'm posted that, as I forgot I posted this. ( I should delete either rhtis or the other), which overall gives me a 0.13% chance I DON@T HAVE IT. I know they're independent, which is why the chance is 0.95^130

= 0.00127 = 0.13% chance.

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ScorpioneITA

ScorpioneITA

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1 hour ago, Kuulpb said:

I am so sure it IS a bug though, I did 130 runs now, and I'm posted that, as I forgot I posted this. ( I should delete either rhtis or the other), which overall gives me a 0.13% chance I DON@T HAVE IT. I know they're independent, which is why the chance is 0.95^130

= 0.00127 = 0.13% chance.

Hence its PRNG(pseudo random number generator) Your chance is always: 5.64% unless lua 7.37%.

Fully completing objective and ending mission gives you 5.64%(or 7.37%) of acquiring said item. Per run.

You don't get better odds by doing the mission more also there's no form of pity drop.(I forgot the more technical term pity drop is usually a 100% drop chance after having completed requirement for X item Y times.)

You can do 1000runs. Without a pity drop system (which i have no idea if it is present in warframe but I have my doubts) You're looking at a static 5.64%/7.37% chance.

No point in using ''statistical probability" in this case. Perhaps you may have done 130 runs, but maybe others have done 1-4 and got it straight away. Thus making your statistics biased and inaccurate. You would need data for all the runs in X period for Y period and how many Z drops were given. Then you would have a more.. ''reliable'' statistical probability average per person how long it could take.

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(XBOX)Deflinek

(XBOX)Deflinek

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On ‎9‎/‎10‎/‎2016 at 11:27 PM, Kuulpb said:

And still not chassis., I did however encounter a bug where for some reason a single laser wall, the same wall each time, was completely invisible yet acted like lasers

Are you talking about Corpus Spy, the small square vault in middle and patrols walking around it and with lasers going on-off on both sides? If so, there is a bug there that one (or rarely two) sets on one side are invisible but still trigger the alarm. You may watch the other set of lasers when it goes off and then pass - they are synchronized.

There is also similar bug in other Corpus Spy vault - the one with vault below the entrance, and large room leading to it with middle section surrounded by lasers - you can turn off the outer lasers but the main door to the vault seems still guarded by one set. They are fake unless you set the alarm and you can freely walk through them. You don't even have to disable the outer ones.

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(PSN)abbacephas

(PSN)abbacephas

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1 hour ago, Kuulpb said:

I am so sure it IS a bug though, I did 130 runs now, and I'm posted that, as I forgot I posted this. ( I should delete either rhtis or the other), which overall gives me a 0.13% chance I DON@T HAVE IT. I know they're independent, which is why the chance is 0.95^130

= 0.00127 = 0.13% chance.

 

4 minutes ago, ScorpioneITA said:

Hence its PRNG(pseudo random number generator) Your chance is always: 5.64% unless lua 7.37%.

Fully completing objective and ending mission gives you 5.64%(or 7.37%) of acquiring said item. Per run.

You don't get better odds by doing the mission more also there's no form of pity drop.(I forgot the more technical term pity drop is usually a 100% drop chance after having completed requirement for X item Y times.)

You can do 1000runs. Without a pity drop system (which i have no idea if it is present in warframe but I have my doubts) You're looking at a static 5.64%/7.37% chance.

No point in using ''statistical probability" in this case. Perhaps you may have done 130 runs, but maybe others have done 1-4 and got it straight away. Thus making your statistics biased and inaccurate. You would need data for all the runs in X period for Y period and how many Z drops were given. Then you would have a more.. ''reliable'' statistical probability average per person how long it could take.

^ And these posts illustrate why, when Darvo was selling her at 55% off, I swooped in for the deal.

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Serbian2G

Serbian2G

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I did about 3-4 runs on orokin moon spy today and got her chassis. There's no bug, it's simply just roll of the dice. Random chance. Also you must have 3/3 data extractions to even stand a chance of the part dropping.

Edited by Serbian2G
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Mell

Mell

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On 9/13/2016 at 6:35 AM, ScorpioneITA said:

Hence its PRNG(pseudo random number generator) Your chance is always: 5.64% unless lua 7.37%.

Fully completing objective and ending mission gives you 5.64%(or 7.37%) of acquiring said item. Per run.

You don't get better odds by doing the mission more also there's no form of pity drop.(I forgot the more technical term pity drop is usually a 100% drop chance after having completed requirement for X item Y times.)

You can do 1000runs. Without a pity drop system (which i have no idea if it is present in warframe but I have my doubts) You're looking at a static 5.64%/7.37% chance.

No point in using ''statistical probability" in this case. Perhaps you may have done 130 runs, but maybe others have done 1-4 and got it straight away. Thus making your statistics biased and inaccurate. You would need data for all the runs in X period for Y period and how many Z drops were given. Then you would have a more.. ''reliable'' statistical probability average per person how long it could take.

You don't understand probability 5% is always the drop chance but if i did two runs it increases to 9.075% and so on. so on average you need 20 runs to get the chasis

the chances of not getting the drop in 100 runs 0.6%

Edited by Mell
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(PSN)joshw1400

(PSN)joshw1400

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18 hours ago, Mell said:

You don't understand probability 5% is always the drop chance but if i did two runs it increases to 9.075% and so on. so on average you need 20 runs to get the chasis

the chances of not getting the drop in 100 runs 0.6%

Doing the mission over and over again doesn't increase drop chance. I should know it's a common part for me.

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Mell

Mell

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2 hours ago, (PS4)joshw1400 said:

Doing the mission over and over again doesn't increase drop chance. I should know it's a common part for me.

Wow i never thought i would debate probability. yes you are correct but what about 2 missions. the drop chance for 2 mission is different that one, it isn't double but its close.

 

Okay so 2 missions one has a 95% not to get and 5% chance to get it so if we calculate the chance of not getting it both times 90.075% chance then we inverse that to get the chance of getting it on either mission 9.925%

The reason it is never 10% is because like you are implying it is never a guaranty but as a group the chances of getting is go up.

A good formula for this is 100 - (chance of not getting it^times run)

Edited by Mell
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