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RNG forgot what a Radiant relic is... 15 radiants cracked, only common rewards.


VladYvhv

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When I started trying to crack radiant Lith N11 relics, I had 28 relics (all basic), so farmed void traces and set about ranking up N11s to Radiant. I've gone through this process with 15 of them, and every single one of them has yielded a common reward, over the past couple of days/nights. It would be a bit comical if it wasn't so infuriating.

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10 hours ago, Zakkhar said:

There is nothing weird about it. in single Rad probabilities are 50/40/10. So half the time you get commons. With 15 relics in a row that is 0,5^15

That's not how it works. Each try is 50%. The previous tries have no bearing on the current one and you can't even start to say "but the tabulated results aren't near 50%" until you have thousands of results.

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4 hours ago, Hobie-wan said:

That's not how it works. Each try is 50%. The previous tries have no bearing on the current one and you can't even start to say "but the tabulated results aren't near 50%" until you have thousands of results.

I do not think you understand probability. You may have just learned some artificial rules by heart.

The previous tries have no bearing on the next one and the probability is always 50%. 

However a chance of not getting anything but common with 2 rolls is 0,5*0,5=0,25 or (1-0,5)*(1-0,5) to be exact because we are counting fails, not the successes. Both rolls need to fail and that happens 25% of the time. Other options are both succeed 25% as well and 1 success - 50% (if one is success, the other to fail is 50%).

In 3 rolls, its 0,5^3=1,25 and in 15 rolls it is 0,5^15, just as i wrote.

Have you checked wiki recently on any warframe/weapon that drops in mission rotation? You would notice certain columns and corresponding numbers: 

https://warframe.fandom.com/wiki/Khora

PS:

I once had a 53 streak of failing 10% drop chance item while getting plenty of the lower chance ones.

 

 

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