Attention De:the Biggest Nerf Of U8 Everyone Missed: Orokin Reactors/catalyst Alerts.

[cknives]

In your opinion the evidence points to him being accurate. I'd say it doesn't back him up at all. The burden of proof still lies with him as far as I'm concerned, but it's a matter of opinion at the moment so there's no point arguing about it.

My personal data backs up his drop rates too. At least his tier 1 defense drop rates are spot on.

[shukudai]

Well, not to mention DE's also been caught out saying stuff that has been untrue; intentionally misleading; subsequently been re-negged; just plain failed to deliver.  They're not exactly a beacon of truth and honesty.

[Notso]

My personal data backs up his drop rates too. At least his tier 1 defense drop rates are spot on.

 

Your personal data of how many trials exactly?

[cknives]

Your personal data of how many trials exactly?

 

 

Im up to around 220 wave 5 io Jupiter runs and the drop rates almost perfectly reflect the drop table.

[Notso]

Im up to around 220 wave 5 io Jupiter runs and the drop rates almost perfectly reflect the drop table.

 

Fair enough.

[xenapan]

4 items were introduced into the alert pool. rare ones. they could not possibly have influenced randomness of potatoes. i'll wait at least another week before agreeing with op, though. good theory anyway.

well all the historical data suggests at LEAST 2 potatoes a week. this current potato famine is unprecedented.. and frankly.. scary as hell if i'm right.

[xenapan]

Ya know, I'm curious. Where, exactly, has it been stated by DE that the alert system is entirely random probability? Other than on the forums of players that massively assume it's random and not cherry picked by a DE employee all the time I don't think I've seen a statement by DE about it.

In all honesty if it's random then it has some of the most seriously skewed results ever. I see enemy radar on average 1-2 times per day. I've seen a single Vauban chassis in what, 12 days? Rifle Amp comes up 3-5 times a week, Glaive I've seen twice since it came out.

And on that note, what exactly is it that triggers an alert? It doesn't seem to be by hourly or w/e, there've been days where there have been 3-4 mystery alerts and then days where there have 8 or 9. Why is that?

it IS a randomly generated set.. but they still fall within very predictable parameters. FYI glaive has been out FIVE times (I've personally hit 3 out of the 5 alerts) and 4 vauban alerts 2 systems 1 helmet 1 chassis.  but that data is entirely new and really we need a few weeks more data to predict anything.

[xenapan]

As more items get introduced the odds of getting x decreases. That's how it works.

 

The system is random, they have no input on it apart from livestreams as has been confirmed by them. It is simply a questions of odds changing. No stealth nerfs so keep your pants on.

they have input on the %s. and i think they changed the %s when they added in forma to the mix. and if a drop in % ISNT a stealth nerf what IS it? also adding in other things does NOT have to reduce the chances of anything else. has the % of the amps, scavengers, artifacts, helmets decreased? as far as I can tell? ... no? if they shoved potatoes into the same slot and replaced the other slot with forma (thus halving the potato alerts and replacing the other half with forma) that IS a nerf on the potato drop rates.

 

I'm just hoping its unintentional.

Edited June 2, 2013 by xenapan

[Timmuk]

For sure make a farrrrr greater percentage of alerts ? rewards. No point to doing regular ones, credits are super easy to get. Also need to move a lot of the current terrible rewards off of the table, move em to boss drops, defense rewards etc

 

 

Or add in double ? Alerts, should be rare but would be a nice thing to see from time to time

[shukudai]

Xenapan, unless they increase the amount of ? alerts/day of course having more items in the mix will reduce the chances of each individual item.

 

Scenario:

 - Each day you get 10 vegetables: Broccoli (nobody likes broccoli) or Potato (yummy).  Broccoli_weight=7.... Potato_weight=3.

 

 - Now add Carrot into the mix, adjust weight, now it's maybe 6 broccoli, 2 carrot, 2 potato.

 

 - Worse, they could keep Broccoli_weight=7 and potato would really be screwed.

 

Unless you crank it up to 12 veggies per day, you won't get as many potatoes.  Not hard to understand.

 

Likely the system is "working as intended", however their intentions came with a warm cup of lack-of-foresight.

[W00DSTER]

sacrifice your firstborn children to the mighty RNG god and pray for a bountiful harvest!

[HomeyCDawg]

This is the longest potato dry spell since beta went open, by quite a large margin. It should be every few days.

 

This is why if they insist on relying on RNG to keep the F2P status of the game, they should have multiple RNGs with multiple avenues to pursue them containing different types of items based on function, rarity, and so on, instead of just throwing everything into one big ever-growing ? alert RNG pool.

 

Every item they add to it reduces the effectiveness of the "you can get everything with just time" argument, since once it reaches dozens or even hundreds of items, you could wait half a year or more and never see something come up.

[smithf]

Just for additional info. I have posted this once in other threads and several post above have sort of stated this (but may got lost in other discussion arguments).

Drop determination is made up 2 parts:

   RNG is just one half. The other is Probability Table (aka Drop Table).

The former generates a random key.
The latter is the one actually mapping the key to an item (loot).

iow, praying to RNG is not enough. The outcome is also controlled by the Probability Table (which, in previous update versions, caused the Ever-Hellfire-Defense-Reward syndrome beyond a certain wave level for which there is no proper "drop table".)

iow, we need to make animal sacrifices to DE as well ;)

---
Also, the actual rate of generating an item matters.

e.g. The probability of old item alerts PER ALERT will be reduced by introduction of new items. (fact. not opinion).
So to maintain the overall expected number of an old item alert, we will have to increase the probablilty of an alert occuring.

Disclaimer: This is just for clarification. It is not indicative of any support (nor objection) towards increasing the expected number of alerts.

 

[Lumireaver]

At the risk of being redundant, if they made it so ? Alerts had selectable loot it might balance things out without changing the mechanic too much for DE's tastes.

[xenapan]

 

Xenapan, unless they increase the amount of ? alerts/day of course having more items in the mix will reduce the chances of each individual item.

 

Scenario:

 - Each day you get 10 vegetables: Broccoli (nobody likes broccoli) or Potato (yummy).  Broccoli_weight=7.... Potato_weight=3.

 

 - Now add Carrot into the mix, adjust weight, now it's maybe 6 broccoli, 2 carrot, 2 potato.

 

 - Worse, they could keep Broccoli_weight=7 and potato would really be screwed.

 

Unless you crank it up to 12 veggies per day, you won't get as many potatoes.  Not hard to understand.

 

Likely the system is "working as intended", however their intentions came with a warm cup of lack-of-foresight.

 

So their intention is that as the game ages, free players are forced more and more into paying? If thats their official stance I quit. and I dont say that lightly.. I think they understand that if they don't give free players even a chance to get stuff which would otherwise be cash only, the game will bleed free players. Not that I'm hurting for potatoes right now. I have 2 spare reactors, 1 spare catalyst. The issue is the direction the game is going. The forma to build dojo, the presence of forma to research weapons... I'm willing to give forma a chance because they are new. But if they are going to change base gameplay mechanics like the ability for free players to get potatoes twice a week IF they are lucky enough to be on for either of those 30 minutes... then I have a problem with that. and yes.. I know what dilution is. I even wrote a whole post on it.. and the problem facing mods now. https://forums.warframe.com/index.php?/topic/44375-incentives-to-stop-running-the-same-missions-over-and-overbountys-u8-dojomod-market/

[Law_Abiding_Engineer]

lol, gotta love those attention grabbing title names.

[Notso]

lol, gotta love those attention grabbing title names.

 

How else would he get people to take it seriously? :P

[xenapan]

How else would he get people to take it seriously? :P

Well June 3rd is 9 days since the last potato. So my "joke" of a post is turning into a serious reality. We are slowly closing on the 2 week mark of no potatoes.

[xenapan]

Day 10 of the potato famine.

[cknives]

We will probably get 1 tomorow from the live stream...

 

That being said it wont fix the broken alert system.

 

Potatoes are very P2W now

[belthagor]

Day 10 of the potato famine.

aye, tis a orrible famine

[PaperAlien]

As more items get introduced the odds of getting x decreases. That's how it works.

Actually, that's not neccesarily true. It depends on how the ? alerts are calculated. If it rolls for whether there's a ? at all, and then rolls what the ? actually is, then the statement holds true. If it rolls for whether X alert has Y item, then it isn't correct. With the latter system, ? alerts of different items don't override each other, and therefore, including more items to the pool will just increase the rate of ? alerts in total, without changing the droprates of specific items.

 

I understand probability way better than you. Note the historical data.  pre update 8 of potato alerts NEVER dropping below 2 per week. Historically 2 is the MINIMUM. with 6 being the max. Update 8 comes out, suddenly the minimum is broken, the average is broken. this is variance in the data thats never been seen before. Not to mention the variance has always been positive always resulting in MORE never less in a given week.

As much as I am hating the lack of potatos, your statement holds absolutely no truth. There's no rule with breaching the minimum being immediately indicative of a change in probability. In fact, by that logic, the original minimum would probably have breached the previous minimum already. Also, variance and SD never cover 100% in any way. 2 SD's covers 95% of cases, but 5% can easily breach that minimum/maximums.

[xenapan]

As much as I am hating the lack of potatos, your statement holds absolutely no truth. There's no rule with breaching the minimum being immediately indicative of a change in probability. In fact, by that logic, the original minimum would probably have breached the previous minimum already. Also, variance and SD never cover 100% in any way. 2 SD's covers 95% of cases, but 5% can easily breach that minimum/maximums.

 

Yes 2 SD's covers 95% of cases. Yes the SD of the twitter alert is about 1.77 but its a positive skew. Add in the historical data from pre-twittter, the SD is smaller. And as other people have pointed out already, a normal distribution curve isnt exactly the best way to model this BECAUSE of the skew. A poission with a lamda of 2 is probably much more accurate. Anyhow. it hardly matters. Just keep counting the days till a potato shows up and remember the fact we used to get a potato every 3 days. You won't need to do any math to see for yourself about the state of the new RNG. Those facts will speak for themselves much more than any amount of math :P

Edited June 5, 2013 by xenapan

[f3llyn]

Be nice if they made so ? alerts happened at least once an hour. Or drastically increased the time those super rare alerts stay active by up to 5 or 6 hours.

 

The alert system is broken and has been for 5+ months. I find it really strange that DE doesn't see a need to overhaul it considering it's been a consistent source of complaints for as long as I've played this game.

Edited June 5, 2013 by f3llyn

[xenapan]

We will probably get 1 tomorow from the live stream...

 

That being said it wont fix the broken alert system.

 

Potatoes are very P2W now

I'd hesitate to say the potato famine is over with tomrrow's livestream alert considering it isnt even a RANDOM alert  but rather one they put in manually.. the number of days since a RANDOMLY GENERATED potato alert will still continue. Unless they plan on doing livestreams every week AND giving out a potato after every livestream (which is  1 a week guarenteed vs 2 a week with only 1 hour total to get both).. we will see.

Edited June 5, 2013 by xenapan