Question: Are Random Void Drops Really Random?

[DeadlyPeanutt]

As I've been playing the game more, and playing void almost exclusively to make frames to trade, I've noticed that the 'random' drops in specific  void missions seem far from random.  

 

For instance, in T3 D missions, wave 20 C rotation: there are 8 possible drops.  One of the drops is the Ash P BP ( a valuable drop), another is Wyrm P Cerebrum (a relatively worthless drop).  In playing that mission over 20-30 games, the number of Wyrm drops is at 80-90%.  

 

Is it possible that the random number generator is working against me in this instance? Surely.  But a random number generator that produces the same number 80-90% of the time is hardly random.  Anyone who knows math is aware that nothing is easier than to program a RNG to spit out a specific number very rarely (of course, that would not be a Random Number Generator at all, quite the contrary). 

 

other topics have addressed this, specifically:

https://forums.warframe.com/index.php?/topic/426276-void-rotation-c-drop-rates-remain-broken-something-still-needs-to-be-done/

 

My Question: Are the drop in the void (or in the game generally) actually random? Or are some drops more rare within those specific drop tables by design?

 

Of course, if the answer is that void drops are not random, then I'll stop playing those missions.  Also, we should stop referring to RNGs at all in regards to drops.  If some drops are designed to be rare and not random, then playing those missions becomes much less attractive.  For instance, if in a T3D mission, I have a 1-500 chance of getting an Ash BP, then I would not play the mission. 

 

Proof would be quite easy.... Start a topic and have players add data as they play the specific mission, when the data reaches 200-300 missions, the results should be fairly accurate.  

 

I ask the question, because this proof may already have been gathered.

 

Please refrain from responding with flames; this is a valid question which effects all players.  If the drops are NOT random, we should all know this in advance. 

 

TIA from a relatively new player :)

 

 

[BlackVortex]

^ This is exactly why its not RNG, imho

it is a random generated number between lets say 1-100

what happens with the distribution of drops however is another thing, it's still a random generated number which is NOT weighted in any way, just how that number is used is.

 

besides, it's not really random  anyway if you think about it, it just takes a set of  last numbers from the processor clock, it's just unpredictable for us as mentioned by someone before

 

i.e. if you would take a regular clock: it might be 18:15 hours

more precise it could be 18:15:50

or 18:15:50.679402577305745375

now lets say the RNG takes the last 2 digits which are 75, although not random, it's totally random to us

and because of a delay in hardware and most notably internet connection, you will never be able to predict such a number from the server

Edited February 11, 2016 by BlackVortex

[DeadlyPeanutt]

So, I'm curious. Why exactly is DE against publicly releasing drop rate information? What harm is there in DE being transparent with players regarding drop rates?

 

 

Changing drop rates without notification to players has the effect of restricting the number of complete units that can be constructed.  If the drop rate of one component out of four is changed to make that component very rare, the number of complete units is reduced dramatically ( for example, if Ash Prime BP drops are made much more rare, the number of Ash Prime units is decreased at the same rate).

 

I'll leave it to you to deduce why DE doesn't release information.

 

On the other hand, if I know that I have a 1 in 1000 chance to get an Ash P BP in a given mission, I might be less frustrated if I don't get that drop... or I might just play another mission that I enjoy more and stop trying to farm.  So there is a positive aspect to DE sharing this information.  

[DeadlyPeanutt]

it is RNG, this is why:

 

they pick a random generated number between 1-100

item 1 has numbers 1-3

item 2 has numbers 4-10

item 3 has numbers 11-100

 

so if number 70 gets picked, you get item number 3

if number 7 gets picked, you get item number 2

 

item number 1 has 3% chance to drop

item number 2 has 7% chance to drop

and item number 3 has 90% chance to drop

lol, the system you describe is NOT random.

 

The programmed weightings have much more effect on the outcome than any other factor.

You describe a Weighted Number System.  Not random at all :)

 

Drops in WF are a Weighted or Tiered drop system, NOT a random system. Some drops are 'rare, common or uncommon.'  This is based on forum moderator comments in another thread and veteran player input.  

 

The missing information is which drops in the void are in each category (rare, uncommon, and common) and how each category is defined (does 'rare' mean 1 in 1000 chance to receive the drop, or 1 in 50 chance... a big difference).

 

People need to stop thinking of drops in WF as being Random Number Generated (RNG), because they are not. 

Edited February 14, 2016 by DeadlyPeanutt

[DeadlyPeanutt]

I really think it depends on what you're going after like ash helmet is easier to get than his systems and such 

 

Lets be clear here "Random" just means "unpredictable" not "equally possible".

 

It's a "weighted drop chance" the RNG is just as random as any game RNG (Hence actually pseudo random, but random enough for mere humans)

 

It's truly bizarre that people think that weighting drops are somehow "not random" It's like they've never seen a lottery before, where you have a higher chance of lower prizes and a lower chance of the higher prizes, yet it's all still very much "random".

 

If the weightings have more effect on the system than the RNG, the system is hardly random.  The lottery is not a random system.  Casinos are not random systems. 

 

In a 'random' system, with 10 possible outcomes and one desired outcome, the player has a 1 in 10 chance of receiving the desired outcome each time he/she plays.  That is simply not the case in WF.

 

Many players I play with become very frustrated when they run 20 or 30 missions and out of a drop table containing 5 drops they don't receive the one drop they desire.  However, the missing information is that in a 'weighted' system, the desired outcome may only drop 1 in 1000 times if it has been programmed as a rare drop (or 1 in 100, or 1 in 50... however rare is defined).  If these same players knew that they had a 1 in 1000 (or 1 in 50) chance to receive the part they want, they might be less frustrated or not play the mission at all, opting for a mission with a better drop rate. 

[BlackVortex]

lol, the system you describe is NOT random.

 

The programmed weightings have much more effect on the outcome than any other factor.

You describe a Weighted Number System.  Not random at all :)

 

Drops in WF are a Weighted or Tiered drop system, NOT a random system. Some drops are 'rare, common or uncommon.'  This is based on forum moderator comments in another thread and veteran player input.  

 

The missing information is which drops in the void are in each category (rare, uncommon, and common) and how each category is defined (does 'rare' mean 1 in 1000 chance to receive the drop, or 1 in 50 chance... a big difference).

 

People need to stop thinking of drops in WF as being Random Number Generated (RNG), because they are not. 

you do not understand why it is, I have tried to explain that there is a random generated number, but you are either incapable of, or unwilling to comprehend this

 

there is a number randomly generated here(at least random to us)

 

how that number is being used is another thing

but in essence it's still random, just heavily biased

 

look at it like a dice, you throw a 6 and you win, throw anything else, you lose

whether you win or lose is still random, but your possibility to win is much lower than to lose.

I hope this explains it better

if not, I give up trying to explain

 

p.s.

random does not mean equal probabilities, because I think that's where your logic is hitting a wall

Edited February 15, 2016 by BlackVortex

[ragingdeamon]

If the weightings have more effect on the system than the RNG, the system is hardly random.  The lottery is not a random system.  Casinos are not random systems. 

 

In a 'random' system, with 10 possible outcomes and one desired outcome, the player has a 1 in 10 chance of receiving the desired outcome each time he/she plays.  That is simply not the case in WF.

 

Many players I play with become very frustrated when they run 20 or 30 missions and out of a drop table containing 5 drops they don't receive the one drop they desire.  However, the missing information is that in a 'weighted' system, the desired outcome may only drop 1 in 1000 times if it has been programmed as a rare drop (or 1 in 100, or 1 in 50... however rare is defined).  If these same players knew that they had a 1 in 1000 (or 1 in 50) chance to receive the part they want, they might be less frustrated or not play the mission at all, opting for a mission with a better drop rate. 

 

random does not mean equal chances. otherwise we would say "random" instead "equal chances" since it's shorter. 

go look up a definition of random. and also, look up how random number generators work on computers, cause those aren't true random. 

[DeadlyPeanutt]

p.s.

random does not mean equal probabilities, because I think that's where your logic is hitting a wall

 

the system you describe is a weighted system which is random within weighting bands.  

The important thing is that, in this system, weighting bands have MUCH more effect on the drop probabilities than the random 'roll the dice' aspect inside the bands.

 

calling the void drop tables a random system is misleading because the weighting bands have much more effect on the outcome than the random system within bands.  call it what it is, a weighted system with certain drops rarely dropping.

 

also, as i've pointed out, important information is missing on what drops are rare, uncommon and common, and how those terms are defined.  for instance, does rare mean a 1 in 10,000 chance to drop or a 1 in 50 chance to drop?

[DeadlyPeanutt]

random does not mean equal chances. otherwise we would say "random" instead "equal chances" since it's shorter. 

go look up a definition of random. and also, look up how random number generators work on computers, cause those aren't true random. 

definitions aside, we're still lacking important information on WHICH drops within each drop table are rare, uncommon and common.  And how often these drop.  

 

These documents give the impression that there is an equal chance for any of these drops in a given mission to occur, which is false.

http://warframe.wikia.com/wiki/Orokin_Void/ByMissions

https://forums.warframe.com/index.php?/topic/486215-prime-gear-drop-locations/

 

Hypothetically a desired drop, such as Ash prime BP, Nova prime BP or Trinity Chassie  has a 1 in 1000 chance of dropping instead of a 1 in 9 chance.  That's important information to all players who are seeking these drops.  

 

Ironically, information on which mods and resources are rare, uncommon and common is easy to find.  My question is, where is the equivalent information on void drops, and why is the information that is readily available misleading?

[DeadlyPeanutt]

look at it like a dice, you throw a 6 and you win, throw anything else, you lose

whether you win or lose is still random, but your possibility to win is much lower than to lose.

 

 

A weighted system like void drops is NOT the same as a dice throw.  A dice throw has an EQUAL chance of any of 6 outcomes happening.   

A weighted system is like crooked dice, where the winning number 6 comes up only 1 time in 1000, and 3 comes up in 50% of the throws.

 

so in a weighted system when i play a void mission with 6 possible drops, i may be looking for the prime BP, but it only drops 1 in 1000 times.  However, the forma BP drops 50% of the time.  It's like the dice is crooked. 

 

If you can't understand a weighted system, I give up also. tyvm

[(PSN)CoolD2108]

It is random, the chance just isn't even but intentionally low. Even lower on fresh released stuff.

[(PSN)CoolD2108]

Wow - we're on page 4 now. I think this touches on something Tesseract raised - namely, that there is a strong desire by the community to get a better understanding of these issues/concepts - it would serve to lower the frustration felt by a lot of players.

I find it curious that people can consider the word "random" and state its meaning with such conviction.

"random" is a fluffy airy word that means different things to different people.

Personally, coming from more of a statistical background I tend to think of it as denoting a draw (observation) from a particular probability distribution.

A philosopher would think of it along the lines of that which is not expected.

The physicist would tend to think of it as set of properties defined in a certain space.

There is no right or wrong - it is simply that certain levels of specificity are required for certain levels of problem/discussion.

Apologies for what is probably something of a deviation from the OP's query - it's just I found the discussion quite interesting.

The concept is profit. Why would anyone buy prime access if you had a fair chance to get to stuff? Buy platinum if it would get much better? Mod packs if the rarity had any meaning? Why would anyone call it a scam sheme as long as it dropps at all? DE is a company. Companys aim for profit. This is a truth evryone here should accept before questioning unclear clarifications...some may be random but i'd bet money on the option that most in this game is set intentionall.

And on a sidenote, danielle, why would someone have to mine data to get a grasp of something that is stupid obvious? Thanks for the confirmation tho.

Strategical note: the moment it becomes that obvious is usually the moment where one can row back to calm the masses or loose it all by pissing off the community. Might me worth a mention on your next meeting.

Edited February 16, 2016 by (PS4)CoolD2108

[BlackVortex]

A weighted system like void drops is NOT the same as a dice throw.  A dice throw has an EQUAL chance of any of 6 outcomes happening.   

A weighted system is like crooked dice, where the winning number 6 comes up only 1 time in 1000, and 3 comes up in 50% of the throws.

 

so in a weighted system when i play a void mission with 6 possible drops, i may be looking for the prime BP, but it only drops 1 in 1000 times.  However, the forma BP drops 50% of the time.  It's like the dice is crooked. 

 

If you can't understand a weighted system, I give up also. tyvm

you are just... lost

what you are saying is not true, you have failed to understand what has been told to you here many times

 

I give up trying to explain, you will never understand

I just... give up

[Apokeipo]

On 16.2.2016 at 8:04 PM, BlackVortex said:

you are just... lost

what you are saying is not true, you have failed to understand what has been told to you here many times

 

I give up trying to explain, you will never understand

I just... give up

While I started reading this thread I actually wanted to give an explanation that would be similar to yours. But now my hope, that the OP would understand, is converging to zero. I try anyway and I try another approach to this.

 

@DeadlyPeanutt (and everyone with difficulties in understanding this)

Before we can talk about "randomness", we should understand what "random" means. Random events are such events that have no predictable pattern. This means that there is not a single method to predict the outcome of such an event with exactly 100% probability.

Given a mission M with the rewards A and B and given the drop probabilities p(A)=0.01=1% and p(B)=0.99=99%.

Under your understanding of "random", this wouldn't be random at all and you'd say it is a "weighted" system (opposing to "random"). Now let's use basic science methods here to prove that you are right. We have the correct definition of random above. So we have to find a method, that can predict the outcoming rewards with 100% correctness. Can you? Because I can't. In fact: science can't. There is no way. You now that you will almost always get item B. That is the key word here: almost. The chance to get item B is close to 100%, but it is not equal to 100%. So if there is no way to predict the outcome, this means that this event is indeed random. It is also weighted, those two systems do not exlude each other. In fact: the only weighted systems, that are not random, are those, that consist only of probabilities equal to 0 and 1 (0% and 100%), because those are the only predictable probabilities.

 

Let's dig a little deeper into that topic. How does a program calculate randomness, if randomness is not calculable? Good Question. In fact: It can't. How do random rewards, random drops, critical chances, proc chances and other random events in software work then?

You probably have heard about so called RNG or "random number generator". People are throwing this term around but what is this? To use some sort of randomness mathematicians came up with methods that produce sequences of numbers that look as random as possible. But in fact they aren't. They are called "pseudo random". But they can be used as random ones for programming purposes.

Most RNGs need a seed. A number that manipulates the outcome, basically. But for equal inputs you have equal outputs. Think of a function, that needs one (or more) numbers as an input. If you always use the same number, you will always get the same output.

Simple example: Given the function f(x)=x².

If you use x:=2 as an input, you get f(2)=2²=4 as an output. Set x:=3 and you get f(x)=9. Now if you use x:=2 again (same input as the first one) you get f(x)=4 again.

This, of course, is not a RNG. A RNG has not a single output but gives a sequence of numbers, that have to look as random as possible, as said above. Now to let the output look even more random, you have two change the seed once in a while. When I started programming with random numbers in Object Pascal, I had the problem that, whenever I started my program, it always gave me the same sequence of "random" numbers. They looked random at the first start, but after every restart the same sequence popped up. This happened because I did not change the seed. I had to call the function randomize(). I believe that it used the system clock as a seed for the RNG but I'm not sure about this.

What did we learn? Random events in a piece of software are never really random but pseudo random. But how can we use some numbers, that are totally not random and treat them as random anyway? Because those RNGs have been tweaked over years and if you'd show anyone a sequence of RNG generated numbers, he or she would probably say "man, those are just a bunch of random numbers". And because you practically cannot predict those numbers (which again is crucial for the definition of "randomness"). In theory you can, if you now what RNG the developers used in their code and which seeds had been generated for your session and how many numbers of the generated sequence already have been used. Good luck in finding that out.

So because it is nearly impossible to predict pseudo randomness and it works just as well as "real" randomness in a video game, we can treat it as "real" randomness. It is also more intuitive to call something "random" rather than "pseudo random".

 

I hope that you now understand, that those rewards are, casually speaking, indeed random, because you practically cannot predict them, as long as their drop chances are greater than (but not equal to) 0 and smaller than (but not equal to) 1. No matter if it's 99% or 99.9999999%, it is both random and weighted.

Whether this is fair or not is a whole other question, which I do not want to talk about. But you need to know the correct definitions of words and understand how the system works, before you can make (false) statements like "it is not random but weighted".

 

Edited February 28, 2016 by Apokeipo
corrected some typos

[DeadlyPeanutt]

3 hours ago, Apokeipo said:

 

@DeadlyPeanutt (and everyone with difficulties in understanding this)

Before we can talk about "randomness", we should understand what "random" means. Random events are such events that have no predictable pattern.

 

Void drops are highly predictable... In certain missions, you can be sure that you'll get 20 bo prime BPs in any 25 missions (or forma bp, or vectus receiver bp).  Therefore void drops are hardly random.

Anyone who plays void missions regularly knows that drops are not random at all.  Experience trumps semantics, I always say. 

My point, which I've made repeatedly, is that weighting has a much bigger effect on a player's chances of receiving a given drop than randomness.  Therefore void drops should be labeled as what they are, a weighted system where the game makers do not share the weightings or the chances of receiving any given desired drop (strangely, game makers do share which mods and resources are rare, and what their drop rates are).

I can't count the numbers of players I've encountered that are frustrated with void drops.  I chatted with some today.  Lack of information is a major cause, imho.  Players would be much less frustrated if they were not only given information on what missions prime parts drop into, but what the chances of receiving that drop (hypothetically 1 in 100, or 1 in 1000).  If a player goes into a mission knowing he has a 1 in 1000 chance of receiving a specific drop, he would be less frustrated at not receiving it.  On the other hand, if a player enters a mission believing that he has a 'random' chance of receiving a desired drop, frustration is likely to occur if he plays 30 mission and gets 25 bo prime bp and 5 forma bp (for example).  This player might well consider void drops, 'rigged' or feel he is being 'cheated.'

I don't dispute that randomness is a factor in void drops:  however, randomness is a trivial factor (that is, unimportant).  

The carefully programmed weighting system that causes desired drops to be very rare is a much larger factor in how often players receive desired drops. 

So call the system what it is... a programmed weighted system.  And you may consider asking for information on what the weightings are and what your chances are of receiving them. 

[(PSN)Onder6099]

1 hour ago, DeadlyPeanutt said:

 

So call the system what it is... a programmed weighted system.  And you may consider asking for information on what the weightings are and what your chances are of receiving them. 

Its called Pseudorandom number generator, which use an algorithm, mainly    a Linear congruenital generator, because in basic, WF is a computer program based on algorithms and depends on developers how the LCG will look like. Unfortunately for us, Steve is one od the best if not the best in that. 

[Apokeipo]

10 hours ago, DeadlyPeanutt said:

Void drops are highly predictable... In certain missions, you can be sure that you'll get 20 bo prime BPs in any 25 missions (or forma bp, or vectus receiver bp).  Therefore void drops are hardly random.

At this point I am not sure if you are trolling or just, excuse me, a "special kind of person". Did you even read my entire post? This is basic stochastic, which most people learn at school. I really advise you to read my posts and try to understand those basics.

If you are indeed not trolling, then I'll take your example. You seem to understand, that there are probabilities for each reward. You claim, that the rewards are highly predictable.

Fist off: If they are highly predictable: When you start such a mission, can you predict what reward you will get with 100% certainty? I doubt you can. You know there is a high chance in getting a bo prime bp, but you can't say for sure. You cannot predict the reward pattern for your 25 missions, therefore random per definition.

Let's calculate the empirical probabilities from your example then: Assuming you got 20 bo prime bps in 25 missions. The empirical probability for a bo prime bp would then be h("bo prime bp")=20/25=0.8=80%. Now you claim, that you will get 20 bo prime bps for sure. I'll take your words very literal here. Mathematically speaking this would mean, that there is a 100% chance in getting 20 bo prime bps in 25 missions. Let's try to prove this. we know (or atleast we assume), that the chance for a bo prime bp is 80%, this means there is a 20% chance in getting something different. Now because we have two possible events, namely "getting a bo prime bp" and "not getting a bo prime bp", we use the so called "binomial distribution" and it's formula, which is:

P(X=k) = (nCk) * p^k * (1-p)^n-k       where n is the total amount of missions run, k is the amount of bo prime bps we want to get,  p is the probability in getting it and (nCk) is the binomial coefficient, read as "n choose k". (I won't add the formula for the coefficient. You can look this up)

Now let's put our numbers in
n:=25 , k:=20 , p:=0.8

So we have to calculate

P(X=20) = (25C20) * 0.8²⁰ * 0.2⁵ ≈ 0.196

So there would be approximately a 19.6% chance to get exactly 20 bo prime bps in 25 mission runs. This is far away from your claim, that you will certainly get 20 of those in 25 runs. I actually made the graph for this distribution:

Spoiler

As you can see in the table left to the graph, you cannot even be 100% sure that you will get at least one bo prime bp in your example. There is still a real, but really small, probability that you wouldn't get a single bo prime bp in 25 missions. It is approximately 3.36*10^-18 = 0.000 000 000 000 000 003 36%. But it is not equal to 0, therefore not predictable, therefore random per definition.

What you can do though is an estimation. You can, for example, calculate the probability for getting at least 16 and at most 24 bo prime bps in 25 runs. This would be the sum of the affected single probabilities and it is approximately 94.9%. So you can estimate with 94.9% certainty, that you would get at least 16 and at most 24 per 25 runs.

But you cannot predict the sequence of rewards in 25 runs. You cannot even predict the total amount, that you would get. Therefore it is random per definition and as I tried to explain in my previous post, randomness and weighting do not exclude each other. You can only estimate.

 

Students at school always wonder, why you would need all those maths in your life. Here you go. This is one example.

[DeadlyPeanutt]

Random: b :  being or relating to a set or to an element of a set each of whose elements has equal probability of occurrence

Void drops do not have an 'equal probability of occurrence, therefore they are not random.

Void drops are weighted, not random... end of line. 

[Apokeipo]

1 hour ago, DeadlyPeanutt said:

Random: b :  being or relating to a set or to an element of a set each of whose elements has equal probability of occurrence

Void drops do not have an 'equal probability of occurrence, therefore they are not random.

Void drops are weighted, not random... end of line. 

When you quote something, you need to give the source.

Now let me give you some definitions:

1.

Quote

Randomness is the lack of pattern or predictability in events. A random sequence of events, symbols or steps has no order and does not follow an intelligible pattern or combination. Individual random events are by definition unpredictable, but in many cases the frequency of different outcomes over a large number of events (or "trials") is predictable. For example, when throwing two dice, the outcome of any particular roll is unpredictable, but a sum of 7 will occur twice as often as 4. In this view, randomness is a measure of uncertainty of an outcome, rather than haphazardness, and applies to concepts of chance, probability, and information entropy.

Source: Wikipedia, article "Randomness"

 

2.

Quote

In probability and statistics, a random variable [...] is a variable whose value is subject to variations due to chance (i.e. randomness, in a mathematical sense). A random variable can take on a set of possible different values (similarly to other mathematical variables), each with an associated probability, in contrast to other mathematical variables.

Source: Wikipedia, article "Random variable"

 

3.

Quote

lacking any definite plan or order or purpose; governed by or depending on chance

Source: Wolfram Alpha, definition of "random"

 

4.

Quote

Probability theory is the branch of mathematics concerned with probability, the analysis of random phenomena.

Source: Wikipedia, article "Probability theory"

 

5.

Quote

Given a probability space (Ω, Σ, P) and a random variable X on Ω with values in a sample space (Ω', Σ'). The expression P_X(F):=P(X^-1(F)) for all F∈Σ' then defines a probability distribution on Ω', the so called "distribution of X".

Source: Chapter 5, theorem and definition "distribution of a random variable", "Analysis and Stochastic for computer scientists" lecture held by Dr. Schneider, summer semester 2015, University Mainz, Germany. (This is originally written and held in German. I translated it for you)

 

As you should see, the terms "random" and "probability" or "chance" go hand in hand in every mathematical definition and probabilities never have to be equal in random events in Mathematics.

I also managed to find the definition you used here. But you used only definition 2 b, because it fits your argumentation and you cut out definition 2 a of that dictionary, which is

Quote

a : relating to, having, or being elements or events with definite probability of occurrence

which does not claim, that the probabilities have to be equal.

 

If you still don't want to change your mind, then go ahead and tell the mathematicians, who work with this on a daily basis, that they have been living a lie.

 

Edited February 28, 2016 by Apokeipo

[KnaveOfSwords]

On 2016-02-06 at 10:53 PM, Tesseract7777 said:

RNG is actually a misnomer really. The meme when someone is talking about good or bad luck is to mention "rng" which stands for "random number generator". 

 

Having weighted percentages is absolutely not random at all. A number generator that has a strong weight to be picking certain numbers is not a random number generator, it is a weighted number generator varying by percentages. 

 

Many, many games use a similar system btw for their loot. Weighted drop chance percentages, so it's sort of random except it's not really random at all. It's a system designed for many games in order to be unpredictable, which gives the player a feeling of coming possible surprises and keeps them hooked, but I don't think any game has ever used a truly random system for their loot. 

You seem to be operating on a misconception or two about randomness and random number generators.  Hopefully I can help here.  (And I'll apologise now, as at least some of this will, no doubt, be simplified more than at least some of you are needing; I'm terrible at judging what is and isn't obvious to anyone who's not me.  Also, I'll go ahead and note that I haven't been doing any datamining, so specifics on how this works in Warframe are educated guesses (I'll try to point these out if they come up), while specific numbers are mostly pulled from various orifices.) 

First of all, to the best of my knowledge, most, if not all games (as well as virtually any program that needs a measure of chance involved in its workings) do use so-called "Random Number Generators."

Spoiler

Actually, the vast majority of programs use pseudo-random number generators.  Computers are incapable of generating true randomness without some external source of chaos, and instead use complex patterns that defy prediction and give results like those of actual randomness.  There's a few exceptions, mostly done through hooking the program up to sensors monitoring the decay of radioactive isotopes, but unless someone has really screwed up, you'll never be able to spot which is which from the output.

Most of these have, at their base, a method (subroutine - is subroutine an easier term for people who haven't done programming?) that generates a random floating-point number (decimal with potentially way more places behind the decimal than you want to deal with) between 0 and 1 every possible value within that range being equally likely.  Most of the interesting bits are, of course, what's done with these numbers after you get them.  For example, crits are - probably - determined by generating one of these random numbers and comparing it to what percentage of the time the current weapon should crit.  If our random number is less than the crit chance, it's a crit - and to determine red-crits, add 1 to our random number and check again - while if it's higher, then it's not a crit.

In the case of loot tables, it's likely to look something like this:  if our random number is less than 0.2, you get a Bo Prime Blueprint.  Otherwise, if it's less than 0.5, you get a Wyrm Prime Cerebrum.  Otherwise, if it's less than 0.75, you get a Forma Blueprint.  If it's less than 0.9, you get Fusion Cores, and if it's greater than 0.9 you get an Ash Prime Blueprint.  (These numbers are almost certainly wrong, at least partly because I left out all 3 Braton parts that can drop here).  The end result is that while what prize you're getting after Wave 20 is random, it's also more likely to be a Wyrm Carapace (30% chance with the numbers that were orifice-pulled above), Forma (25%) or Bo BP (20%) than it is to be Fusion cores (15%) or Ash BP (10%).

[Apokeipo]

I tried to comprehend, what caused such a misconception of randomness and I found a linguistic case (with variations), where the use of the word "random" indeed implies equal probabilities. It has something to do with "picking a random object in a group of objects". For example "Pick a random number between 1 and 10" or "Pick a random card" and so on. Now if you are told to pick an object in a group of objects, which on first glance have no difference in quality, equal probabilities for the objects to be picked (but not for their qualitiy, when they are revealed) are implied. Also randomness, as stated in the wikipedia definition, can be used as a measurement instead of an absolute property. For people equal probabilities feel more random, casually speaking, and heavily weighted probabilities feel less random. Both are still random in this case though, but with a continuous growing quality assigned to it, where both bounds, namely 0 and 1, have no randomness. This "quality of randomness" is also important for creating and tweaking a RNG algorithm, because we want sequences, that feel the most random to people, implying that probabilities for every number seem equal. So the expression "generating a random number" would be the second case of absolute randomness with equal probabilities. (also: as @KnaveOfSwords stated, probabilities for things like loot tables are not created in the RNG itself. The RNG is never touched by the programmer. The programmer assigns ranges of numbers to possible events in the program. Greater ranges mean greater probability and vice versa.)

So there are different definitions of "randomness". In general "randomness" does not imply equal probabilities. You can use the expression "absolute randomness" to underline, that equal probabilities are implied but usually it's trivial in it's corresponding context. Apparently some people imply equal probabilities in every use of the word "randomness", which is wrong, especially in a mathematical context.

 

 

[BlackVortex]

On 28-2-2016 at 7:02 PM, Apokeipo said:

When you quote something, you need to give the source.

Now let me give you some definitions:

1.

Source: Wikipedia, article "Randomness"

 

2.

Source: Wikipedia, article "Random variable"

 

3.

Source: Wolfram Alpha, definition of "random"

 

4.

Source: Wikipedia, article "Probability theory"

 

5.

Source: Chapter 5, theorem and definition "distribution of a random variable", "Analysis and Stochastic for computer scientists" lecture held by Dr. Schneider, summer semester 2015, University Mainz, Germany. (This is originally written and held in German. I translated it for you)

 

As you should see, the terms "random" and "probability" or "chance" go hand in hand in every mathematical definition and probabilities never have to be equal in random events in Mathematics.

I also managed to find the definition you used here. But you used only definition 2 b, because it fits your argumentation and you cut out definition 2 a of that dictionary, which is

which does not claim, that the probabilities have to be equal.

 

If you still don't want to change your mind, then go ahead and tell the mathematicians, who work with this on a daily basis, that they have been living a lie.

 

just ignore him

Edited March 2, 2016 by BlackVortex

[DeadlyPeanutt]

21 hours ago, BlackVortex said:

just ignore him

lol, i am

[BlackVortex]

5 minutes ago, DeadlyPeanutt said:

lol, i am

you must be a troll, you cannot be this stupid to not realize I am talking about you

[DeadlyPeanutt]

9 minutes ago, BlackVortex said:

you must be a troll, you cannot be this stupid to not realize I am talking about you

i'm ignoring you too, btw :)

[BlackVortex]

1 minute ago, DeadlyPeanutt said:

i'm ignoring you too, btw :)

thats why you replied to me?... twice...

Edited March 3, 2016 by BlackVortex