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Cash Shop Prices: How Much Should Things Cost? An Economic Analysis


MJ12
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Let's talk the cash shop. Right now, buying weapons and most Warframes with Platinum is hugely uneconomical and will only be done if you have Plat to burn or if you're really really anti-grinding for some reason. As in "you want X frame, you make high-five digits income, and you don't have much gaming time".

The prices for weapons are even more out there. This can be fixed by lowering prices across the board and giving everyone who spent Platinum back some of their Platinum. But what prices need to be lowered, and by how much?

That's a good question, isn't it?

Basic Pricing

At a basic level, you'd ideally want buying guns/warframes with cash to be at least as appealing as buying it with ingame money or crafting them ingame. So you want the cost of the weapon in Platinum to have the same opportunity cost, more or less, to the time taken to grind for the credits/resources to build the weapon.

Thus, Platinum cost is going to be, more or less "15 x USD Cost in time to grind for money x USD cost in time to grind for resources".

Some Assumptions

I'm going to assume that Sony's F2P guys are roughly on the ball as to what the ideal price for shortcuts is and their number is somewhere around $.40 per hour. I'll increase this to ~$.66 per hour (10 platinum/hr) because unlike SOE, DE is a smaller company and probably can't rely on huge mass sales, and because it's fairly cheap.

I'm going to assume that time spent waiting for something to craft is far less valuable as you can do other things then. At 50 Plat to rush a Warframe, it's apparently valued at roughly 1 Plat = 1.5 hours of wait time by DE. I'll keep that assumption for now.

I'll also assume that Orokin Reactors/Catalysts being undervalued for game time (due to their luck-based nature) is intentional to make them extra-appealing cash shop items and not use them as a guide to price. Same with Starter Warframes.

Note that this sets an upper, not a lower limit on Warframe/weapon costs. Ideally the costs will be lower to encourage people to buy things with Plat instead of credits.

Credit Gain/Hour

Right now, my experience with running through levels at a normal pace (vs speedrunning, which is a 'powergamer' thing and thus going to skew the numbers a bunch) gets you something like 2,000 credits a mission on average, with a mission taking around 10-15 minutes, for roughly 8-12,000 credits an hour. Average that and call it 10,000 credits an hour of gaming.

Resource Gain/Hour

This is much thornier but I haven't had to spend more than 3-4 hours grinding resources for weapons, and maybe twice that for Warframes. Admittedly I'm not starting from a clean slate and I'd love people to give me test data on how long they take to grind out the plates, rubedo, and other stuff needed for a Warframe/weapon for more precise feedback, but I'll assume a Warframe takes 8 hours and weapons take 4 hours.

Basic Pricing Formula

Given these assumptions we're looking at buyable weapons having a Plat cost of 20 (Catalyst) + (credit price/1,000).

Buildable weapons have a Plat cost of 20 (Catalyst) + (blueprint cost/1000) + (crafting cost/1000) + 40 (resource grind time).

Warframes have a Plat cost of 20 (Reactor) + (blueprint cost/1000) + (crafting cost/1000) + (component crafting cost/1000) + 80 (resource time).

Warframe Prices

Each component takes 15,000 to build (15 Plat), and the blueprints generally cost 35K with a 25K build cost (50 plat total). As such, the non-starter Warframes should all cost 20 + 35 + 25 + (3 * 15) + 80 = 205 Platinum. Now, notably, this means Rhino and Ash are ridiculously overpriced (375 vs 205) and most other Warframes are overpriced slightly (225 vs 205).

Now, this admittedly doesn't take into account the difficulty of bosses but Rhino drops from one of the earliest bosses in the game and Ash's boss isn't terribly hard either (and making them harder just so the prices are more 'worth it' would be kind of bad for the game as a whole).

My suggestion is to drop non-starter Warframe prices to around 200-150 (with frames whose bosses are accessible early, like Ember/Rhino, getting the lower prices) and refund anyone who's bought them at the current prices. At 175, buying a Warframe is just 10 bucks, which is still (barely) in impulse-buy territory. Whereas at 375, you're looking at the ability to buy an on-sale game with that money.

Weapon Prices

If Warframes are overpriced, weapons are criminally overpriced. Take the Braton. It costs 10,000 credits or 75 plat. Under the formula I'm using, it should cost 30 platinum. That's a markup of one hundred fifty percent.

The Gorgon or Latron? 50,000 credits or 225 Plat. It should cost 20 + 50 = 70 Platinum. The markup in this case is two hundred twenty percent of its 'fair' value to most gamers.

The buildable weapons are somewhat more fair but still overpriced. The Scindo and Fragor cost 150, but should cost (20 + 15 + 30 + 40) 105. Round down to an even 100. I think only the Viper manages to have a reasonable price, costing 75 Plat to buy (whereas it costs 100 Plat under my equations).

So cut down all buyable weapon Plat costs a bunch, cut down buildable weapon Plat cost in general by about 33%, and leave the Viper where it is is about my recommendation.

I hope this number-crunching analysis of why the cash shop's stuff is too overpriced is enlightening.

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I can't even count how many Saryns and Banshees I've seen right after they came out. Clearly somebody pays for this stuff.

Saryn/Banshee cost only 225 Plat, which is almost around the reasonable level (again, I figured it to be 200). The eregrious offenders Warframe-wise are Frost, Rhino, and Ash.

Edited by MJ12
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I believe 60k credits are purchasable for 90 platinum in the market. The Gorgon, for instance, costs 50k credits flat if you buy it without its super charge. If you spent 90 platinum on the credits, then 20 platinum for the super charge, you would get the same Gorgon for 120 platinum rather than 225 platinum. It's my opinion that the platinum costs in the store right now are fundamentally arbitrary and 'eye-balled' for value, since they seem to contradict.

Edited by GrimCerberus
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I believe 60k credits are purchasable for 90 platinum in the market. The Gorgon, for instance, costs 50k credits flat if you buy it without its super charge. If you spent 90 platinum on the credits, then 20 platinum for the super charge, you would get the same Gorgon for 120 platinum rather than 225 platinum. It's my opinion that the platinum costs in the story right now are fundamentally arbitrary and 'eye-balled' for value, since they seem to contradict.

They removed plat-for-credits (thankfully). And those were also too low. Under my napkin numbers here, it should be at least 1,000 credits per plat.

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They removed plat-for-credits (thankfully). And those were also too low. Under my napkin numbers here, it should be at least 1,000 credits per plat.

They did?... So they did. Must have done it in advance of trading or something. That was practically saying; "We don't care about the economy."
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Good analysis, the stuff that gets me in particular are the 375 platinum prices on a few warframes(which is like a $25 value?), and the platinum prices on the buyable weapons. I'd never pay five dollars for a weapon that costs 10000 credits, even if it starts with a catalyst, nor would I pay $15 for 50000 credit price weapons.

What they need to do, is create a good standard formula to follow like the OPs, and stick to it. The point of microtransaction based games is to keep them micro, not stuff that costs $15 to $25. Then start adding more stuff like the weapon skins and keep their price relatively low, low enough that anyone who sees them and likes the look might consider dropping a few bucks on them right there. The point of this stuff is impulse buying, and right now I can honestly say the only things I'd even consider buying are warframe slots, and maybe colour palletes and weapon slots. Incidentally, those all can only be aqquired with platinum, but also have pretty reasonable prices, though the colour palletes might still be a tad high considering most of the colours are barely different from eachother and you usually only get them for a few good colours at most.

Oh, and an extra little note on warframes. Until they start to actually be unique, and not thrown together with cookie cutter abilities for the most part(especially AoE blast ubers), I see little reason to spend money on them, nevermind the price of a game's worth. Take Ember for instance, blast someone with fire, AoE fire DoT, AoE fire ring DoT, big AoE fire DoT, and due to resource costs, you have no reason to use more than one of them. Or Mag, where your first three skills are pretty much useless and you are just a walking AoE uber. Work on the warframes and cut the prices a bit, and you'd see people start buying them.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Wrong assumption.

The weapons and warframes aren't overpriced, they are too easy to get.

 

Yes, kill me for that statement but here it is. Guns for example are ridiculously cheap in credits.

I swim in credits, I have credits coming out of my ears.

There isn't a good enough credits sink atm.

 

15k for a weapon is lol, a relatively new player can get one in under a week.

Blueprints and farming for them is exactly as lol.

 

That being said, the prices are still beta and I've seen pricing change drastically once a game launches.

 

PS: In your calculation you forgot (?) to include that Rhino is Mastery Locked at Rank 2, and Gorgon is Mastery Locked at Rank 3.

Rank 3 takes approx ~20h to get to, thats why its expensive in Plat.

 

PPS: I don't know where you get your numbers for SOE. If you are getting them from Planetside 2, stop and choose another example, because PS2 is so massively overpriced its not even funny.

Edited by Mietz
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Um no offense, but even though you don't need someone with professional or high level education training in economics to say this (although I do), you realize that any type of price analysis any of us attempt to do will be utterly pointless due to the fact that the prices aren't set on "what's fair" or "what's right" but rather the developing studio's business model and cost/profit ratio which we will never see unless you decide to initiate a bid to buy the studio?

 

Your reasoning is fascinating OP, although I disagree with many of your points, but regardless it's all just speculation and a trivial pursuit with the lack of the afore mentioned base data of what and how they make money.

 

It's the basic rule of the free market economy. If I am selling apples, just because their perceived worth is 1$ per apple, that doesn't stop me from selling them at 100$ an apple or 50cents an apple, if my costs, consumer willingness to pay, regulation, production and about a bajillion other factors justify it. 

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~$10 for a warframe with weapons costing around half as much does sound about right when considering "how much would I pay?" independently of their time/credit value.  But I'm not going to buy them because, as meitz points out, these things are easy enough to acquire that there's not a lot of incentive to pay money for them.

Edited by Effusion-
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Um no offense, but even though you don't need someone with professional or high level education training in economics to say this (although I do), you realize that any type of price analysis any of us attempt to do will be utterly pointless due to the fact that the prices aren't set on "what's fair" or "what's right" but rather the developing studio's business model and cost/profit ratio which we will never see unless you decide to initiate a bid to buy the studio?

 

Your reasoning is fascinating OP, although I disagree with many of your points, but regardless it's all just speculation and a trivial pursuit with the lack of the afore mentioned base data of what and how they make money.

 

It's the basic rule of the free market economy. If I am selling apples, just because their perceived worth is 1$ per apple, that doesn't stop me from selling them at 100$ an apple or 50cents an apple, if my costs, consumer willingness to pay, regulation, production and about a bajillion other factors justify it. 

 

No kidding. Prices are based on what people are willing to pay, not some weird money per hour formula.

 

OP, try googling "demand curve".

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Um no offense, but even though you don't need someone with professional or high level education training in economics to say this (although I do), you realize that any type of price analysis any of us attempt to do will be utterly pointless due to the fact that the prices aren't set on "what's fair" or "what's right" but rather the developing studio's business model and cost/profit ratio which we will never see unless you decide to initiate a bid to buy the studio?

 

Your reasoning is fascinating OP, although I disagree with many of your points, but regardless it's all just speculation and a trivial pursuit with the lack of the afore mentioned base data of what and how they make money.

 

It's the basic rule of the free market economy. If I am selling apples, just because their perceived worth is 1$ per apple, that doesn't stop me from selling them at 100$ an apple or 50cents an apple, if my costs, consumer willingness to pay, regulation, production and about a bajillion other factors justify it. 

 

Sure, you can sell your stuff at whatever the market can bear. But if you sell it at too high a price, nobody is going to buy it. On every thread about Warframe I visit everyone says "don't buy weapons or warframes with platinum you morons" or some variant of this statement. If people are constantly banging on the idea that weapons/warframes are overpriced and should never be purchased with plat, the cash shop has fundamentally failed.

 

As I pointed out in the OP, there is a reason I did this numbercrunching, because I was using SOE's data estimates (and SOE runs a ton of F2P RPGs) on how much money people are willing to pay on average to bypass an hours' worth of grind. That number is about 40 cents. Unless you can prove Warframe's audience is massively richer than say, PS2 or DCUO's, I'm reasonably sure SOE's estimates are good. Since you know, their life depends on it and all.

 

So sure, you can sell Warframes at the price of 25 bucks a pop. Just don't be surprised that only a tiny fraction of people ever, who generally have spent tons of money in the game (like Founders packages and all), buy them.

 

 

No kidding. Prices are based on what people are willing to pay, not some weird money per hour formula.

 

OP, try googling "demand curve".

 

Considering that DE has never adjusted prices, you can't say they're based on "what people are willing to pay". They are completely arbitrary. Like Rhino. Rhino is the easiest Warframe to farm. He costs 375 plat. Prices for Warframes are utterly arbitrary and make no logical sense. This isn't "people are willing to pay a lot more than what Sony's model would imply and DE's prices reflect that", this is "these prices have no relation to the perceived value of time and only make sense if the majority of Warframe's paying audience are top-tier law firm or investment company workers who have average starting salaries of 200,000 a year and 1 hour of free time a week to play".

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Wrong assumption.

The weapons and warframes aren't overpriced, they are too easy to get.

 

Yes, kill me for that statement but here it is. Guns for example are ridiculously cheap in credits.

I swim in credits, I have credits coming out of my ears.

There isn't a good enough credits sink atm.

 

15k for a weapon is lol, a relatively new player can get one in under a week.

Blueprints and farming for them is exactly as lol.

 

That being said, the prices are still beta and I've seen pricing change drastically once a game launches.

 

PS: In your calculation you forgot (?) to include that Rhino is Mastery Locked at Rank 2, and Gorgon is Mastery Locked at Rank 3.

Rank 3 takes approx ~20h to get to, thats why its expensive in Plat.

 

PPS: I don't know where you get your numbers for SOE. If you are getting them from Planetside 2, stop and choose another example, because PS2 is so massively overpriced its not even funny.

 

So "someone can get a new weapon without playing for ages" is "too easy" now? I understand that there is a significant minority of "full time" F2P gamers who are willing to effectively spend enough hours that grinding in f2p is a second job for them. This does not mean that most players will have the same experience. Getting a new weapon in a few hours may be 'blazing fast speed' for someone who basically does full-time f2ping, but for someone who has multiple games, or has other responsibilities, that could be several days of gaming. So no, I reject your assertion as blatantly absurd on its face. Furthermore, Rhino the Warframe is rank locked too, the only way to bypass that is by buying the bundle AFAIK. Same with the Hek/Gorgon, you couldn't buy them with plat unless you got to the proper rank, so their prices being higher due to their rank lock is utterly absurd. You are already at the necessary rank. The time grinding for rank is irrelevant. Finally, If PS2 is so massively overpriced this would mean my numbers should be way lower. None of the evidence you use to support your assertion that the prices are fine actually supports your point. In fact, most of it actually supports the opposite.

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So "someone can get a new weapon without playing for ages" is "too easy" now? I understand that there is a significant minority of "full time" F2P gamers who are willing to effectively spend enough hours that grinding in f2p is a second job for them. This does not mean that most players will have the same experience. Getting a new weapon in a few hours may be 'blazing fast speed' for someone who basically does full-time f2ping, but for someone who has multiple games, or has other responsibilities, that could be several days of gaming. So no, I reject your assertion as blatantly absurd on its face. Furthermore, Rhino the Warframe is rank locked too, the only way to bypass that is by buying the bundle AFAIK. Same with the Hek/Gorgon, you couldn't buy them with plat unless you got to the proper rank, so their prices being higher due to their rank lock is utterly absurd. You are already at the necessary rank. The time grinding for rank is irrelevant. Finally, If PS2 is so massively overpriced this would mean my numbers should be way lower. None of the evidence you use to support your assertion that the prices are fine actually supports your point. In fact, most of it actually supports the opposite.

 

Way to misread what I wrote and adjust it to your narrative.

 

I did not say the game is too easy, its too easy compared to the prices presented in the shop. Its a problem of perception, not a problem of pricing, thats why I said you are working under the wrong assumption.

 

Full disclosure: I am not a "full time F2P gamer" (whatever that is)

I have 35 hours of game-time logged and I started in closed beta (check my registration date) thats around 0.3 hours per day, not very "hardcore"

 

In my 35 hours of game time I have acquired (without paying a dime):

 

13 weapons (I sold 4 of them)

2 Warframes (3rd now in construction, ill claim it when i buy the slot or get bored of one of the others)

2 Special helmets

1 Sentinel (paid with free plat)

10 catalysts

2 reactors

6 of my weapons are fully maxed lvl30 with semi-maxed mods

I have 100.000cr just laying around

 

At this pace I have -zero- incentive to buy anything from the store except slots.

Any weapon that is not mastery locked is easily obtainable from crafting.

In fact the only thing that is rather time intensive and feels right are warframes.

 

I'm not power gaming, in fact I probably play less than others do on average.

 

Your assumption is "make stuff cheaper".

Because you won't pay the price, or because there is no incentive to pay the price?

 

There is no demand to pay the price because the credit prices are too low, the crafting times and farming too fast paced.

Will I complain about this? Hell no, if they want it to function like this go ahead and be my guest, I won't look a gift horse in the mouth.

 

Remember CBT, orokin catalysts and reactors were exclusively available in the shop, people complained (me included), now they drop like candy.

Rumors are that slots will be obtainable with mastery ranks in the future, huzzah for me.

 

The problem isn't the pricing, the problem is the incentive model, especially the shop exclusive slots.

I will not buy a weapon from the shop because i'd need to additionally purchase a slot and the weapons are easily obtainable with cr/crafting.

I will not buy a frame because I'd need to additionally buy slots.

 

Making slots limited, limits purchase options for the things that go into these slots.

Very, very simple.

 

That being said, again, this is beta and I've seen other games change their payment model multiple time during release.

I'm very sure DE has some people with spreadsheets working on this as we speak.

Edited by Mietz
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Way to misread what I wrote and adjust it to your narrative.

 

I did not say the game is too easy, its too easy compared to the prices presented in the shop. Its a problem of perception, not a problem of pricing, thats why I said you are working under the wrong assumption.

 

Full disclosure: I am not a "full time F2P gamer" (whatever that is)

I have 35 hours of game-time logged and I started in closed beta (check my registration date) thats around 0.3 hours per day, not very "hardcore"

 

In my 35 hours of game time I have acquired (without paying a dime):

 

13 weapons (I sold 4 of them)

2 Warframes (3rd now in construction, ill claim it when i buy the slot or get bored of one of the others)

2 Special helmets

1 Sentinel (paid with free plat)

10 catalysts

2 reactors

6 of my weapons are fully maxed lvl30 with semi-maxed mods

I have 100.000cr just laying around

 

At this pace I have -zero- incentive to buy anything from the store except slots.

Any weapon that is not mastery locked is easily obtainable from crafting.

In fact the only thing that is rather time intensive and feels right are warframes.

 

I'm not power gaming, in fact I probably play less than others do on average.

 

Your assumption is "make stuff cheaper".

Because you won't pay the price, or because there is no incentive to pay the price?

 

There is no demand to pay the price because the credit prices are too low, the crafting times and farming too fast paced.

Will I complain about this? Hell no, if they want it to function like this go ahead and be my guest, I won't look a gift horse in the mouth.

 

Remember CBT, orokin catalysts and reactors were exclusively available in the shop, people complained (me included), now they drop like candy.

Rumors are that slots will be obtainable with mastery ranks in the future, huzzah for me.

 

The problem isn't the pricing, the problem is the incentive model, especially the shop exclusive slots.

I will not buy a weapon from the shop because i'd need to additionally purchase a slot and the weapons are easily obtainable with cr/crafting.

I will not buy a frame because I'd need to additionally buy slots.

 

Making slots limited, limits purchase options for the things that go into these slots.

Very, very simple.

 

That being said, again, this is beta and I've seen other games change their payment model multiple time during release.

I'm very sure DE has some people with spreadsheets working on this as we speak.

 

This is a very long-winded way to say "make things harder to get so people feel like it's worth $25 to buy a Rhino." Would you really want a game where grinding up one Warframe took 60+ hours of your time exclusively? That is to say, if you saved everything you got from 60 hours of gameplay, you could build 1 Warframe. Just one. Or hell, the Braton. You should need to grind for 5 hours. Just to buy a Braton. That's what you're saying.

 

Unless you're not actually saying that the problem isn't the prices, the problem is that it's too easy to buy them?

 

Wrong assumption.

The weapons and warframes aren't overpriced, they are too easy to get.

 

Wait no that's exactly what you said. Also, you're 'swimming in credits'? Really? What did you do, sell everything resembling a mod and never attempt to fuse mods up to high levels? Because I have way more time than you do and I'm not even close to 'swimming in credits' because I have tons of stuff that I want to upgrade.

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I think prices are fine.  Little over a buck for a reactor/catalyst, inventory slots roughly the same, or less for weapons. 

 

I'm seeing zero mentions of weapons or Warframes here. Which is actually what I'm talking about, the cash shop prices for equipment.

 

Notice I said nothing about slots or reactors/catalysts.

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This is a very long-winded way to say "make things harder to get so people feel like it's worth $25 to buy a Rhino." Would you really want a game where grinding up one Warframe took 60+ hours of your time exclusively? That is to say, if you saved everything you got from 60 hours of gameplay, you could build 1 Warframe. Just one. Or hell, the Braton. You should need to grind for 5 hours. Just to buy a Braton. That's what you're saying.

 

Unless you're not actually saying that the problem isn't the prices, the problem is that it's too easy to buy them?

 

 

 

Wait no that's exactly what you said. Also, you're 'swimming in credits'? Really? What did you do, sell everything resembling a mod and never attempt to fuse mods up to high levels? Because I have way more time than you do and I'm not even close to 'swimming in credits' because I have tons of stuff that I want to upgrade.

 

A Braton is 10k credits.

With the current reward scaling and not rushing missions, playing on a chill setting, you can have one in an hour.

 

Let me repeat that.

 

AN HOUR.

 

 

Less than that if you play smart (not powergame, smart) by playing high reward alerts (3000cr+) which happen quite frequently (~ every 20-30 mins)

 

I don't know where you would get 5 hours from, wait no, i do, from your "calculations" (that are based on conjecture and an arbitrary perceived "fairness" of pricing)

 

-I'm saying the prices are out of whack, just like you are.-

 

Except I'm saying they are out of whack because the model is wrong.

You are saying they are out of whack because they are arbitrarily too expensive.

 

Do you understand the difference?

 

The Braton is 3.99$ (75 plat) -or- 10.000cr -or- an hour of playtime.

 

This relationship is -wrong- and you are focused -solely- on the first variable ($$$).

 

Even if you are correct and adjust for your calculated pricing to 30 platinum for the Braton, I STILL WOULDN'T BUY THE GUN, nobody would.

Because there is a threshold of -time- as a function of incentive to be reached before there is an incentive AT ALL to spend money. An hour is not past that threshold.

 

This is what I meant when I said they are "too easy to get".

 

The Warframes are the only ones that reach the time threshold to incentivise purchase.

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I'm seeing zero mentions of weapons or Warframes here. Which is actually what I'm talking about, the cash shop prices for equipment.

 

Notice I said nothing about slots or reactors/catalysts.

Weapons can crafted easily and quickly.  Frames are still easy, just take a while to farm.  I know, farming for frames sucks, but its all this game is.  Once you get the frame you farm for, you farm to level it, you farm to get mods, and you farm to get money... whatever.  If you don't want to farm for warframes, you might as well quit, Farming for one thing or another is all there is to do.  I only mentioned inv slots and orokin crap because they're really the only thing worth buying in order to save time.  Doing missions and daily login rewards takes a significant longer amount of time than farming for frame parts. 

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Weapons can crafted easily and quickly.  Frames are still easy, just take a while to farm.  I know, farming for frames sucks, but its all this game is.  Once you get the frame you farm for, you farm to level it, you farm to get mods, and you farm to get money... whatever.  If you don't want to farm for warframes, you might as well quit, Farming for one thing or another is all there is to do.  I only mentioned inv slots and orokin crap because they're really the only thing worth buying in order to save time.  Doing missions and daily login rewards takes a significant longer amount of time than farming for frame parts.

Um, what? That's my point! That's the entire point of the thread. Nothing besides inv slots and potatoes are really worth buying because everything besides inv slots and taters are overpriced like whoa.

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Got to agree, a lot of the stuff in this game is insanely overpriced. Although I'm assuming that's DE testing the waters since they've never done a F2P game before and are unsure of how to price equipment.

 

Fairly priced items are more attractive and will in the end garner more sales from more people.

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