Profit exploiter - so many Shocking Step Ephemera... ( Edit : I'm just unlucky I guess )

[Bakahung]

So I'm doing a lot of profit exploiter lately , try to get some toroids and Ephemera .

But for some reason , all I get is shocking step ephemera .

according to wiki , when an ephemera drop , the drop chance for those two is 50/50 . 

It can just be me being super unlucky , but since the odd is way to low , I wonder :

Is there any bugs in this orb's drop table ?

 

Here is a picture for my ...record.

https://imgur.com/LvmQNXC

Edited April 12, 2020 by Bakahung

[Jiminez_Burial]

You're just unlucky.  There's no point asking if it's bugged if you don't have a significant amount of properly collected data that suggests otherwise.  You're just an outlier and there's nothing statistically wrong with that.

[Bakahung]

You're right...Maybe I should start documenting future attempts

I think a sample of 100 orbs should be enough?

[GnarlsDarkley]

Try running with this player

 

[Jiminez_Burial]

1 minute ago, Bakahung said:

I think a sample of 100 orbs should be enough?

Not 100 orbs, more like 100 ephemera.  Basically unless you either want to do nothing but kill the Exploiter Orb for the next 2 months, or set up a proper statistical study then it's just smart to put things down to being an outlier.  Any claim you make otherwise carries no statistical weight.

[Bakahung]

Man I hate RNG...

(By the way even it's only 5 samples , in the case that I drop an ephemera this is a 3.125%)

^I fell like these is something wrong with that statement , I'm bad as statistics0 _0

[Bakahung]

18 minutes ago, GnarlsDarkley said:

Try running with this player

 

Lol

Already replied.

But we probably live in different time zone , making us hard to play together.

[Jiminez_Burial]

1 hour ago, Bakahung said:

Man I hate RNG...

(By the way even it's only 5 samples , in the case that I drop an ephemera this is a 3.125%)

^I fell like these is something wrong with that statement , I'm bad as statistics0 _0

3.125% is correct.  The math is really simple since only one ephemera can drop at a time with there being 2 possibilities, and assuming we're only recording instances where either of the ephemera drop.  Keep in mind that we're looking just for Shocking Step.  You're just dividing your last % chance by 2. 

1)  100 / 2 = 50%

2)  50 / 2 = 25%

3)  25 / 2 = 12.5%

4)  12.5 / 2 = 6.25%

5)  6.25 / 2 = 3.125%

6)  3.125 / 2 = 1.5625%

I added a 6th time since according to your image you had one bp built meaning you got the ephemera 6 times.  This is also the % chance of getting 6 Freezing Steps in a row.

Edited April 12, 2020 by Jiminez_Burial
Added spaces either side of "/" symbol for formatting consistency.