It's just "Bad RNG" is another way of saying highly improbable.

[(PSN)NightmoonStalker]

If a player gets to a point in a game where the explanation given is its just bad RNG as to why something hasn't happened, to me its like saying something improbable is happening.

I have given up on getting the Ivara neuroptics to go and get all of the parts for Harrow.  I'm trying to collect all of the non prime warframes and that is my sole focus.

So the wiki for defection tier 2 says there are 9 possible items that can drop from rotation C (8 squads rescued)  of those 9 items, 2 of them have a slightly higher chance to drop (Harrow systems and enduring strike mod) - link --> https://warframe.fandom.com/wiki/Defection/Rewards#Tier_2

The number in parenthesis is the amount I have in inventory so I have 58 attempts

Harrow Systems Blueprint 11.28% (0)
Enduring Strike mod 11.28% (2)
Neo B7 Relic11.06% (2 but i have used more)
Neo N13 Relic11.06% (12)
Neo N14 Relic11.06% (7)
Neo N15 Relic11.06% (7)
Neo P2 Relic11.06% (10)
Neo T2 Relic11.06% (13)
Neo Z7 Relic11.06% (5)

Since the probability to get the blueprint is 11.28% the probability of not getting the blueprint is 100% (1.00) - 11.28% (.1128) which results in any 1 attempt you have a 88.7% chance of not getting it.  The probability of not getting it after 2 attempts is (.887x.887) which is 78.7%. With each additional attempt, your odds decrease of not getting the blueprint.  So the probability table for this is below.  The formula for consecutive attempts and not getting 1 particular item in this case is .8872^n where n is the number of attempts.  By attempt 6 the odd are in your favor of getting the item and every attempt after that.  So every time you/I don't get a part you are beating the odds with every additional attempt.

Let's put the below chart into perspective.  Please note my number of attempts above (58).  Imagine playing Russian roulette a revolver with 9 chambers and one 1 round in one of the chambers and spinning the cylinder after every pull of the trigger.  How many of you would feel comfortable with "bad RNG" to get you to 58 attempts and still be alive?

If you were in a casino and this type of "bad RNG" happened either the casino would stop the game because your bad event never happened your they would be shut down because the house never lost.

%	n	CHANCE of not getting blueprint
0.8872	1	88.7%
0.8872	2	78.7%
0.8872	3	69.8%
0.8872	4	62.0%
0.8872	5	55.0%
0.8872	6	48.8%
0.8872	7	43.3%
0.8872	8	38.4%
0.8872	9	34.1%
0.8872	10	30.2%
0.8872	11	26.8%
0.8872	12	23.8%
0.8872	13	21.1%
0.8872	14	18.7%
0.8872	15	16.6%
0.8872	16	14.7%
0.8872	17	13.1%
0.8872	18	11.6%
0.8872	19	10.3%
0.8872	20	9.1%
0.8872	21	8.1%
0.8872	22	7.2%
0.8872	23	6.4%
0.8872	24	5.7%
0.8872	25	5.0%
0.8872	26	4.5%
0.8872	27	3.9%
0.8872	28	3.5%
0.8872	29	3.1%
0.8872	30	2.8%
0.8872	31	2.4%
0.8872	32	2.2%
0.8872	33	1.9%
0.8872	34	1.7%
0.8872	35	1.5%
0.8872	36	1.3%
0.8872	37	1.2%
0.8872	38	1.1%
0.8872	39	0.9%
0.8872	40	0.8%
0.8872	41	0.7%
0.8872	42	0.7%
0.8872	43	0.6%
0.8872	44	0.5%
0.8872	45	0.5%
0.8872	46	0.4%
0.8872	47	0.4%
0.8872	48	0.3%
0.8872	49	0.3%
0.8872	50	0.3%

[Uhkretor]

... I just split the droplist into 3 parts - Common, Uncommon, Rare... And for those that have the same percentages, I just stick them all into the same classification and just assume that the %% value is the classification %% value, and then assume that once that percentage hit then its 100% chance of giving a reward from that classification... before dividing those 100% by the number of items within that same reward class...

Let suppose that its a mission reward, and its 100% chance for a reward.

50% for common reward, 36% for uncommon and 14% for a rare reward... Now, Common has 20 items, uncommon has 10 and rare has 35 items... You basically split the 50% of the common classification by 20, the 36% of the uncommon by 10 and the 14% of the rare by 35... You'll get really small %% rates whenever each classification is chosen. So, its 2 RNG layers working...

 

... If you look at it like this, it might actually help understand better why people say "bad RNG"...

[Leqesai]

I mean... RNG is RNG. You have a nice explanation of how you expect things to work but RNG is RNG. Even if the drop chance is 99% there is potential for someone to not get it.

It is very unlikely to hit "lose" as much as you have but it is also very unlikely for someone to win the lottery. Winning the bad-luck lottery happens and you should just accept it and move on. Eventually you will get what you're looking for.

[(PSN)NightmoonStalker]

@Leqesai - and probability is probability.  Tell me something, would bugs in a program be reported if we just accept it and move on?  Can you infact prove that "RNG" that is programmed be free from being affected by other programming?

[-AncientWarrior-]

54 minutes ago, (PSN)NightmoonStalker said:

@Leqesai - and probability is probability.  Tell me something, would bugs in a program be reported if we just accept it and move on?  Can you infact prove that "RNG" that is programmed be free from being affected by other programming?

Now this is a great point, and I always wondered about certain "RNG" factors, for example the Affinity Buff of the Smeeta, RNG really bad consistantly over years of use or controlled by programming to be less activated than the others..  I know when I used the Smeeta over the years the affinity buff was activating way less than the others.. and if you didnt take a gun the reload buff didnt trigger.. therefore its affected by a programmed response to supposed "RNG".  But its a mute point anyway as it DE's method and its up to them how they programme their game, and I doubt we will ever know as transparency has never been a strong point with DE even though they say it is.. we know its not.  Therefore we do just accept it as RNG and .. playball!

[Kevinoid_Ken]

Hi there! Do go through this thread, would be very helpful....

6 minutes ago, Kevinoid_Ken said:

Since past few days I have been running Defection missions for "Harrow Systems", may have done atleast 10 runs including few 16 squad ones.

I may not be the first one to point this out and I'm not here to cry against RNG.

 

My questions are simple:

1) Is Harrow Systems still obtained from defection missions? (Would be good if someone shared proof, not drop table from fandom or official ones)

2) Are you sure there isn't any bugs?

3) If anyone got/farmed Harrow systems recently (in 2021), please share your expertise.