How do you calculate how much Status Chance that Multishot gives a weapon?

[thewhitepanda1205]

I'm debating between two rivens right now since one gives 166.1% Multishot and the other gives 100.5% Status Chance.

I don't want to nerf my status chance on the weapon the riven is for, but I don't know how to do Multishot calculations to determine which is better for Status Chance. 

I have:

 

Edited March 12, 2017 by thewhitepanda1205

[Naftal]

Multishot doesn't add any status in reality. Arsenal just shows the chance of getting at least one proc among all the hits with multishot.

In my opinion it's always just best to watch the status value without any multishot mods on since that is the real chance per hit.

[thewhitepanda1205]

6 minutes ago, Naftal said:

Multishot doesn't add any status in reality. Arsenal just shows the chance of getting at least one proc among all the hits with multishot.

In my opinion it's always just best to watch the status value without any multishot mods on since that is the real chance per hit.

So which riven should I take then?

The multishot one made my Twin Wraith Vipers really great status weapons even with 5% base status chance with the displayed amount of 49% while emptying my magazine in 1 second giving a lot of status procs.

I just rerolled it and got the second one. 

I'm only mentioning multishot and status chance because those are the only effective stats on those two rivens.

 

[TruthArbiter]

Here is the math: Status Probability = 1 − (1 − Status Chance)^(1 + Multishot)

Edit: Ok for the the Twin Wraith you're better off with the multishot. The status chance one would increase you're status chance to 10% without other mods.

Edited March 12, 2017 by TruthArbiter

[thewhitepanda1205]

2 minutes ago, TruthArbiter said:

Without knowing which weapon we can't help any further.

Twin Wraith Vipers

[TruthArbiter]

Just now, thewhitepanda1205 said:

Twin Wraith Vipers

Just edited.

[Naftal]

I wouldn't say TWV is a great status weapon with any kind of riven. You may think that in a vacuum but when comparing it to actual status weapons, it won't be good.

Since stats are additive with other same ones, which one is better for status depends on the mods you already use for multishot and status chance.

I assume you're using at least Barrel Diffusion and most likely Lethal Torrent too. This makes 166.1% multishot bonus increase the amount of bullets you create by about 59%, which in turn means that on average you'll deal 59% more status procs.

If the 100.5% status mod is the only status mod you have, it'll increase your status by 100.5%. However it won't create extra bullets that don't only have extra status chance but also deal your weapon's full damage. I assume it's the only status mod you have since using status chance mods on 5% base status weapon isn't a good idea.

In my opinion you shouldn't concentrate on status procs when using TWV. Even if it feels good for that after plenty of multishot.

[Xzorn]

To calculate status you need to Status Trigger and Status proc weight.

The status weight for physical damage is x4 higher than elemental damage. So if you do 400 Corrosive and 400 Physical damage you'll have a 400 / 2000 or 20%.

Status Trigger is your expected avg status procs. To find your status trigger with multishot you need to calculate your status chance * number of pellets. So if you have a base 5% status with 166.1% multishot your Status Trigger would be 0.5 * ( 1 + 1.661 ) = 0.133. This number is not to be confused to probability which is what the UI shows you.

If you wanted to find your expected Corrosive Trigger using these stats you'd take the Status Trigger * Status Weight. 0.133 * 0.2 = 0.0266.