22 rounds of disruption: 0 Neo I1 relics

[Flying_Scorpion]

Disruption on UR is supposed to be 13%-14% based on B or C reward. I've gotten B or C reward EVERY time in 17 disruption rounds and I still haven't gotten the Neo I1. I could be wrong on my math but 0.86^17 = 0.07. Which means there is only a 7% chance that this would happen. Either I am unlucky, or something is wrong with the drop rate. I'll run a few more rounds. Maybe I can get that number down to 0.1. 

Edited December 26, 2019 by Flying_Scorpion

[Flying_Scorpion]

Just did 5 more runs. Still no I1 relic. That brings this down to roughly a 4% chance of this happening. Again, maybe I'm just unlucky. I have mostly been getting C tier rewards from this node, so perhaps I should intentionally focus on getting B tier instead.

[Skaleek]

To be fair i did 16 neo I1 radshares before i got ivara chassis. RNG is a pain. Was also a pain to farm said 16 neo i1 relics.

Edited December 26, 2019 by Skaleek

[Flying_Scorpion]

3 minutes ago, Skaleek said:

To be fair i did 16 neo I1 radshares before i got ivara chassis. RNG is a pain. Was also a pain to farm said 16 neo i1 relics.

What node did you farm them on? I think I'm throwing up the white flag on UR.

[Skaleek]

Just now, Flying_Scorpion said:

What node did you farm them on? I think I'm throwing up the white flag on UR.

I did ukko.

[Flying_Scorpion]

1 minute ago, Skaleek said:

I did ukko.

6.25% chance. Kill me now.

[Skaleek]

2 minutes ago, Flying_Scorpion said:

6.25% chance. Kill me now.

I need relics, 6.25% every 1m30s because fast captures.

In my mind whatever nets me the most gain to my character is the best choice for my time, even if i dont immediately get the neo I1 relics. Although I did get quite a few relics. Neo I1 included.

Edited December 26, 2019 by Skaleek

[Flying_Scorpion]

Just now, Skaleek said:

I need relics, 6.25% every 1m30s because fast captures.

Yeah I know. It is a fast mission, I just don't like going in and out through the loading screens. That's why I like disruption. I'm *supposed* to have a 13%-14% chance every round (which can be done very fast), without having to go through loading screens. But unless it's confirmed that the drop rate really is that high on rotation B and C for UR, I'm not going to potentially waste any more of my time. 

[taiiat]

at an average of a 14% Chance, i wouldn't even be concerned about Randomization until i was to hit about 28 failures. average samples to succeed Multiplied by 4 for a quick'n'dirty way to calculate for a value that has high/low confidence.

[Flying_Scorpion]

11 minutes ago, taiiat said:

at an average of a 14% Chance, i wouldn't even be concerned about Randomization until i was to hit about 28 failures. average samples to succeed Multiplied by 4 for a quick'n'dirty way to calculate for a value that has high/low confidence.

That would be a 98% chance that you would have obtained it by then. Consider that I'm already at a 96% chance to have gotten it already. Again...maybe I'm very unlucky. I'll just save my time for something else until I know for sure that it's dropping as intended.

[Xirka]

Do not misunderstand drop chance
One of the most common misconceptions about drop chance is taking the percentage for granted:

A 10% drop chance does not mean every 10th repetition.
A 10% drop chance does not mean 10 of 100 tries is a success.
A 10% drop chance only means that over a large enough sample size or number of tries – tens of thousands – roughly 10% of those tries will lead to success.
And because randomness is involved it is possible that with a 10% drop chance you fail 900 times before you succeed the next 100 times. That is the beauty of randomness.

[taiiat]

57 minutes ago, Flying_Scorpion said:

That would be a 98% chance that you would have obtained it by then.

that type of calculation is an abuse of Mathematics anyways, and should be avoided as it means little to nothing in reality.
the only goal i had in my Post was deciding roughly how many samples should fail before you start having suspicious thoughts. and then it'll be many samples after that before there is a reason to think something is actually broken.

[Flying_Scorpion]

28 minutes ago, taiiat said:

that type of calculation is an abuse of Mathematics anyways, and should be avoided as it means little to nothing in reality.
the only goal i had in my Post was deciding roughly how many samples should fail before you start having suspicious thoughts. and then it'll be many samples after that before there is a reason to think something is actually broken.

I don't want to risk wasting any more of time on UR unless I know for sure that it's actually dropping as intended on UR.

By the way I get the impression that the previous two posters don't understand how the math works on this. Unless I'm the one who is wrong on the math.

To figure out the chance of it dropping after so many attempts, you can first calculate the odds of it NOT dropping. For example if it has a 10% chance to drop, then it has a 90% chance to NOT drop. What's the chance of it dropping after 2 tries? Well, figure out the chance of it NOT dropping after two tries. How do you do that? Take 90% x 90%... or 0.9 x 0.9 = 0.81. That's an 81% chance of it NOT dropping...or in other words, a 19% chance of it dropping after 2 tries. How about 3 tries at 10% drop chance? Just keep doing the same math. 90% x 90% x 90%, and so on. So in my case...as I just GOSH DARN SAID, I am at a 96% chance of it dropping. Prove me wrong.

[taiiat]

2 hours ago, Flying_Scorpion said:

unless I know for sure that it's actually dropping

I am at a 96% chance of it dropping.

ok, it is. the Rewards are there in that Mission as they are suggested.

it's abusive mathematics not because it's wrong, but because it just doesn't translate into reality in any meaningful way. you're calculating the probability to be 'nearly guaranteed' of acquiring the desired result - but this calculation just doesn't mean anything in the real world.
why? because the confidence level in the probability has such huge margin for error by nature of what is trying to be attempted to be calculated that the result you get is essentially meaningless. you can have upwards of a 40% margin for error and that's just a ridiculously huge margin for what is intended to be an accurate calculation.

Edited December 26, 2019 by taiiat

[Flying_Scorpion]

Fair point. I agree that there is not enough data points to know for sure whether or not it's working. Maybe someone else who farmed the relics on UR can add their data here. Maybe tomorrow I'll do some more runs and see what happens. Maybe I was/am just unlucky.

[Flying_Scorpion]

I ran 4 more rounds and finally got one. I did two rounds with rotation B rewards and 2 rounds with Rotation C rewards. It dropped on a B rotation. I think it might be dropping correctly on Rotation B but not for rotation C because the majority of the 22 rounds I did before this were Rotation C rewards. Again. I could have just been very unlucky.