Where is new Ivara Chassis Drop Location?

[Elarionus]

So I've ran through one of the missions that used to give Ivara chassis a little over 140 times now, and it still hasn't dropped...Based on the laws of percentages, that would mean that the chassis would have to have a drop rate of nearly .02% to have not gotten it by now. Where is the new chassis drop location? I've been playing Almetha on Jupiter.

[(PSN)Elctrcstel]

Best advice I can give you friend is this: stop wanting it.

Grind games have a Desire Sensor placed in them that link to your mind telekineticly. When it senses your desire to get or farm something, it shifts the odds in favor of the house so you have to spend more time playing. 

Jokes aside and tin foil hat put away, it's just a string of bad luck. Take a break from Ivara farming for a bit and move on. Forget that she is dropped on spy missions. Once you have forgotten that or stopped caring for the Ivara part, that is when you'll get it

I completely forgot that Vengeful Revenant was dropped by Sentiends. Was helping a friend get sentient kills for the junction and left that mission with Vengeful and a war piece. 

[(PSN)Elctrcstel]

Pulled from the Wiki

 

[Elarionus]

4 minutes ago, (PS4)Elctrcstel said:

Pulled from the Wiki

 

 

Yes, I saw that, but it's clearly wrong, as there is no possible way I shouldn't have it by now.

[(PSN)Elctrcstel]

Just now, Elarionus said:

Yes, I saw that, but it's clearly wrong, as there is no possible way I shouldn't have it by now.

[ashrah]

got main on ceres after lot of tryes...

[Inarticulate]

4 minutes ago, Elarionus said:

Yes, I saw that, but it's clearly wrong, as there is no possible way I shouldn't have it by now.

0.02% is not the same as 0%.

[Elarionus]

15 minutes ago, Inarticulate said:

0.02% is not the same as 0%.

So you think .02% is a fair drop rate? That's absurd.

[Inarticulate]

13 minutes ago, Elarionus said:

So you think .02% is a fair drop rate? That's absurd.

Where do I even begin?

First of all, I have no idea where you think I ever said 0.02% is a fair drop rate. Don't put words in other people's mouths.

Next, I have no idea where you pulled 0.02% from. Zero successes out of 140 is an estimate of [0 +/- 0.7]%. There is no way you could have possibly gotten a number more than one order of magnitude more precise than the experimental uncertainty unless you're doing something wrong.

On top of that, even if the estimate of 0.7% were accurate (it's probably not, but that's not the point), that would still give you a 37% chance of not getting a success after 140 tries. That's a far cry compared to "there's no possible way I shouldn't have it by now".

Hek, even if the actual drop rate were 5% (one in 20), you still have a 0.08% (one in 1,314) chance of not getting a success after 140 tries. One in a thousand is still nowhere near "never supposed to happen ever".

[DatDarkOne]

1 hour ago, (PS4)Elctrcstel said:

Best advice I can give you friend is this: stop wanting it.

Grind games have a Desire Sensor placed in them that link to your mind telekineticly. When it senses your desire to get or farm something, it shifts the odds in favor of the house so you have to spend more time playing. 

Jokes aside and tin foil hat put away, it's just a string of bad luck. Take a break from Ivara farming for a bit and move on. Forget that she is dropped on spy missions. Once you have forgotten that or stopped caring for the Ivara part, that is when you'll get it

I completely forgot that Vengeful Revenant was dropped by Sentiends. Was helping a friend get sentient kills for the junction and left that mission with Vengeful and a war piece. 

As crazy as it may sound, this is without a doubt one of the better ways to handle RNG.  Not just in this game, but in others also does this seem to work.  Ahh memories of chasing the elite armors in Dragon's Dogma: Dark Arisen come to mind.  :D

[Rawbeard]

First I tought OP wanted genuine help, but turns out he is just salty and lashes out at people who try to explain to him what is happening.

[(PSN)Elctrcstel]

34 minutes ago, DatDarkOne said:

As crazy as it may sound, this is without a doubt one of the better ways to handle RNG.  Not just in this game, but in others also does this seem to work.  Ahh memories of chasing the elite armors in Dragon's Dogma: Dark Arisen come to mind.  :D

Now that was an amazing game. Wish they came out with more. 

[Elarionus]

1 hour ago, Rawbeard said:

First I tought OP wanted genuine help, but turns out he is just salty and lashes out at people who try to explain to him what is happening.

That was uncalled for. I was just about to thank everyone for the advice actually, because it makes sense.

[Rawbeard]

you sure it was uncalled for after this little exchange?

22 hours ago, Inarticulate said:

0.02% is not the same as 0%.

22 hours ago, Elarionus said:

So you think .02% is a fair drop rate? That's absurd.

that was just someone explaining how S#&$ty RNG can be and you blew on them as if they personally set that chance this low.