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collecting murmurs (36/60/84 after update 26.1)


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Currently, the numbers of thrall hunts are approximately  36/60/84 after Update 26.1.

You don't need to read whole story. I don't have a reference to these numbers but I tested them (Someone posted on wikia after update without a reference). The game is evolving so  expect changes to the numbers.

I also used "approximately" because, either bug or feature, the numbers will be off a few to complete a circle.

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Below is my original post and edits to search for the correct numbers. And my findings are at the end of it. I find the numbers are 40/65/90 murmurs for each requiem.

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Hey there [DE]s, and fellow Tennos,

Being a solo player most of the time, I try to understand the total number of murmurs to collect to open each requiem.

Last week, wikia pages had 30-30-70, then changed to 30-50-70. But either these values are not correct, or the system is bugged.

For example I have just finished 3 missions, collection 4-9-6 murmurs in each, the first circle did not even fill to the half (1,2 or 3 more to go). Few days ago, I tried to count numbers and in one of them I collected 74 murmurs in 3rd circle. After that I counted for a new lich, playing part solo part with a team, numbers were 37 for 1st, 45 for second and 61 for 3rd requiem.

So can someone please explain what is going on? If it is bug, can [DE]s please fix the numbers?

Edit: current hunt for 1st requiem ended at 40 (give or take 1), 2nd ended at 55 (give/take 1), seems a pattern to go 70 for 3rd but I am not sure. I give a night's break, so I will see to it tomorrow..

EDITS FOR MY LAST 2 HUNTS:

After Hunt Stats (give or take 1 on each):

  • 40 murmurs for 1st requiem

  • 55 murmurs + 1 failure for 2nd requiem

  •  81 murmurs + 1 failure for 3rd requiem

I started a new hunt:

  • 31 murmurs + 1 failure for 1st requiem

  • 1 failure after 55 murmurs carried over 2-4 murmurs to next wheel

  • 2 failures and 70 murmurs for 3rd

 

THOUGHTS AFTER THESE HUNTS:

It seems the numbers are 40, 65 (+25) and 90 (+25)  and trials gives +10 . This is not in the update notes. I accidentally read from region chat that they nerfed lich hunts for team hunts, possibly mentioned in dev streams.

Still the numbers don't seem to be exact values and off by 1-2 points somehow. Maybe they do not use integers in their codes (floating point problems in digital world)

There is also this annoyance that some missions has only 2-3 thralls but this is another story. I might have self answered this topic, but still it would be good to hear some more from [DE]s or other players

 

FINALIZING MY SEARCH:

The last thing GruntBlender said had me thinking: If [DE]s has included numbers in update notes, they why the hell the numbers 30/30/70 or 30/50/70 are not correct?

To be honest, as eyes searched for numbers, I never noticed this: "Instead of each Murmur requiring the same amount of Hints, the first Murmur requires 60%, second requires 100%, with the last Murmur requiring 140%" (PC Update Notes The Old Blood: Hotfix 26.0.4 + 26.0.4.1)

It seems this is the basis for 30/50/70 numbers, and hey no one is perfect. people seems just to prefer it 100% to be 50 with no one testing values. 

Guess what? 100% being the 65, then 60% is 39 and 140% is 91. the numbers I have found.

If you guys have any other reference to numbers, other than the quote I used, you are welcome.

 

EDIT FOR NEWCOMERS TO TOPIC:

I have a thought, like a theory, about the numbers. 8 mods in 3 slots have 336 different combinations. 1/5 of this number will be 67.2 which is real close to 65, the value I reached by trials. 60% of this will be 40.32, fine to be 40, but 140% of it is 94.08, little off from 90, my finding.

I decided to use 40/65/90 not just for simplicity, because they have a relation: 40+25=65 and 65+25=90. Better to the eye.

 

HUNT AFTER UPDATE 26.1

Numbers are changing. After seeing an edit on wikia, which was reasonable but just was un-referenced, I give it a try.

I hunted only Thralls, some converted by the Lich when she showed up. When she did, I let her to convert thralls and send away when no more enemies left around or she just stopped converting.

1st requiem: 37 total counts; 9 exterminate, 9 defense, 10 sabotage, 9 sabotage. 

2nd requiem: 60 total counts; 20 rescue (over the said limit of 15), 11 exterminate, 6 capture, 17 rescue, 6 spy. (In this hunt, I quit and repeat last mission and had 6-7-7-7-9-8 hunts to reveal requiem)

3rd requiem: 84 total counts; 14 mobile defense, 5 sabotage, 8 extermination, 4 capture, 7 defense, 3 spy, 6 interception, 9 capture, 4 spy, 14 rescue, 10 survival (quit and repeated last and had 10-10-11 to reveal requiem)

repeating the last missions showed different results, few extra hunts to completion. This is either a bug, or intended feature. If someone has a reference from [DE]s or if they read this post, I will be happy to hear. (btw, for very last hunt, I prepared to try on my Lich, and lucky I had the correct combination.)

 

Edited by yilmazdurmaz
numbers changed after update 26.1
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Haven't tested it myself, but from what you describe it sounds as if it's a random number centred around 30/50/70 for each of them. Now, getting the distribution would be a really tough job from testing. From what you describe, it sounds like the standard deviation is somewhere around 5-15.

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13 hours ago, yilmazdurmaz said:

do you have something more to add/share?

Did a run last night, set to Friends Only, playing alone. First requiem was around 35, second was around 60, didn't get the third as was lucky on the stabbing. Numbers might be a couple off. Didn't have any failures so those bonus murmurs aren't muddying the numbers.

Edit: did one more lich, set to Solo this time. First one was 38, second was 50 + 2 tries at the lich, third was at least 71 +  2 tries, but wasn't quite maxed as I guessed on the lich correctly. I could have miscounted by a couple, and lich attempts averaging around 7-8 murmurs would make both my liches fit more with 40/65/90 than 30/30/70. That's a hefty difference.

Edited by GruntBlender
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I am collecting data for murmure count too, but I find counting murmures in mission to be unreliable, so I rather collect the approximate percentages at the end of a mission, calculate what it should be with the expected number of murmures for the current requiem, and correct depending on what I feel I gathered in the mission.


First thing is indeed that 30/30/70 is wrong, and it feels more like 30/50/70.

Second thing is that failed lich kill attempts doesn't give 10 murmures.

For your data I'd like to know how you count the murmures you gather.

 

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8 minutes ago, MBouh said:

Second thing is that failed lich kill attempts doesn't give 10 murmures

They do, not personal trial but also trial of team members add +10.  30/50/70 feeling comes from failed attempts.

8 minutes ago, MBouh said:

For your data I'd like to know how you count the murmures you gather.

"Playing solo" means counting each kill one by one. I really did count two full hunts manually.

 

13 hours ago, GruntBlender said:

The wiki was changed to 40/65/90, was that you?

I did on fandom wikia, 

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18 minutes ago, MBouh said:

I am collecting data for murmure count too, but I find counting murmures in mission to be unreliable, so I rather collect the approximate percentages at the end of a mission, calculate what it should be with the expected number of murmures for the current requiem, and correct depending on what I feel I gathered in the mission.


First thing is indeed that 30/30/70 is wrong, and it feels more like 30/50/70.

Second thing is that failed lich kill attempts doesn't give 10 murmures.

For your data I'd like to know how you count the murmures you gather.

 

30/50/70 is the official number. The Nov. 6 update notes said 30/30/70, but were edited on the 10th to say 30/50/70. Most people, myself included, missed the edit.

For my data, I count the number of thralls I mercy per mission, record that, then add them up when the circle is filled and flashing. 

You find counting unreliable, but approximating and correcting based on how you feel is? That doesn't make sense. What matters is how many thralls we have to stab to find out what mod to use, counting is the best method without the UI having a number.

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19 minutes ago, yilmazdurmaz said:

They do, not personal trial but also trial of team members add +10.  30/50/70 feeling comes from failed attempts.

"Playing solo" means counting each kill one by one. I really did count two full hunts manually.

 

I did on fandom wikia, 

You cannot tell whether the number of murmures required is X or the lich try murmure given is Y. Unless you measured X with only thralls and then counted again with a lich kill. But if any of them is random, you'll need way more than two counts to make any hypothesis.

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2 minutes ago, MBouh said:

You cannot tell whether the number of murmures required is X or the lich try murmure given is Y. Unless you measured X with only thralls and then counted again with a lich kill. But if any of them is random, you'll need way more than two counts to make any hypothesis.

that is why I had 2 hunts included: 40 murmurs without failure and 30 murmurs and a failure for first requiem, and then 80 murmurs and a failure, and 70 murmurs and 2 failures for 3rd requiem. oh and also the wheel shows up filling after lich trials. so yep, that is enough for me.

plus , before making my final thoughts I played my next hunt in a team, and checked the lich trials. they definitely do increase the total value.

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@MBouh @GruntBlender @Undeceiver

thanks for joining the discussion. 

The last thing GruntBlender said had me thinking: If [DE]s has included numbers in update notes, they why the hell the numbers are not correct?

To be honest, as eyes searched for numbers, I never noticed this: "Instead of each Murmur requiring the same amount of Hints, the first Murmur requires 60%, second requires 100%, with the last Murmur requiring 140%" (PC Update Notes The Old Blood: Hotfix 26.0.4 + 26.0.4.1)

It seems this is the basis for 30/50/70 numbers, and hey no one is perfect. people seems just to prefer it 100% to be 50 with no one testing values. 

Guess what? 100% being the 65, then 60% is 39 and 140% is 91. the numbers I have found.

If you guys have any other reference to numbers, other than the quote I used, you are welcome.

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11 hours ago, yilmazdurmaz said:

@MBouh @GruntBlender @Undeceiver

thanks for joining the discussion. 

The last thing GruntBlender said had me thinking: If [DE]s has included numbers in update notes, they why the hell the numbers are not correct?

To be honest, as eyes searched for numbers, I never noticed this: "Instead of each Murmur requiring the same amount of Hints, the first Murmur requires 60%, second requires 100%, with the last Murmur requiring 140%" (PC Update Notes The Old Blood: Hotfix 26.0.4 + 26.0.4.1)

It seems this is the basis for 30/50/70 numbers, and hey no one is perfect. people seems just to prefer it 100% to be 50 with no one testing values. 

Guess what? 100% being the 65, then 60% is 39 and 140% is 91. the numbers I have found.

If you guys have any other reference to numbers, other than the quote I used, you are welcome.

That is interesting. You may be right about those numbers then. I have not seen the 30/50/70 except from other users, but maybe it is in some patch notes somewhere?

And by the way, I have actually only killed 1 lich, and I was not counting the murmurs.

Edited by Undeceiver
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I processed my numbers again and your values of 40/65/90 seems to fit better than 30/50/70. It's more consistent with a lich try awarding 10 murmures at least.

For the 30/50/70 set, a lich would need to award 5 murmures for the data to be as consistent, but this becomes weird considering what's in the patch note.

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First I commend the OP's (and everyone else) commitment to figuring stuff out when DE gives us vagueries and progress circles rather than cold hard numbers. The stupid progress circle is infuriating.

I have a post where I denounced the notion of the 10 murmurs per failed lich attempt. The catch was, I assumed the 30, 50, 70 values were accurate. My methodology was to screenshot the progress circle and measure it in CAD. Plenty accurate and I didn't have to keep track of thralls across many missions. I jumped back into game and counted thralls in a single mission (no unknown parazon attempt murmurs) and reversed out the value of the third requiem reveal. I got 90 +/- 3 (not very accurate to back out a full circle from the 7 thralls I nabbed). I will gather some more data points.

In the meantime, I also went back through all my previously recorded data, and a lot of it still does not make sense. Remember all my data centered around a failed parazon attempt as that was what I was testing at the time. If I plug in your values for murmur requirements, I still end up with attempts that awarded 7 murmurs. I am not infallible, I could have miscounted by a thrall, but not 3 (we are talking a single mission here). So there sure feels like more skulduggery going on. Assuming the last circle is 90 murmurs, my measurement accuracy of the circle is +/-0.5 murmur so I could easily be off by one murmur there. This is of course dependent on how accurately the game renders the circle.

I find all of the patch notes intentionally vague. Like they chose their phrasing carefully to leave intentional room for error and did not give us an easy means to track and complain about it. Maybe some murmurs get dropped. Have to love those NOX thralls that you can never stab. Maybe they are constantly tweaking variables to adjust overall Lich progress. Ok, I am getting conspiratorial. Regardless of whether a 'fallibility cushion' exists, I just want numbers for the love of all that's holy so we can optimize our gameplay! Even with variability, a mean value and some std dev would allow me to make a good judgment call.

I also always gather my data solo.

Edited by timbo_james
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I have a thought, like a theory, about the numbers.

8 mods in 3 slots have 336 different combinations. 1/5 of this number will be 67.2 which is real close to 65, the value I reached by trials. 60% of this will be 40.32, fine to be 40, but 140% of it is 94.08, little off from 90, my finding.

I decided to use 40/65/90 not just for simplicity, because they have a relation: 40+25=65 and 65+25=90. Better to the eye.

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It's going to take further consensus from individuals testing to determine these values since DE refuses to just tell us (assuming there is no weird variability happening). I will be tracking as accurately as I can from here on out. I still play pug sometimes, so those cases will be thrown out because it's impossible to count thralls if you join in progress. I'll keep using my 'circle measurement' technique over cases where I know the thrall count.

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On 2019-11-19 at 7:46 PM, yilmazdurmaz said:

To be honest, as eyes searched for numbers, I never noticed this: "Instead of each Murmur requiring the same amount of Hints, the first Murmur requires 60%, second requires 100%, with the last Murmur requiring 140%" (PC Update Notes The Old Blood: Hotfix 26.0.4 + 26.0.4.1)

It seems this is the basis for 30/50/70 numbers, and hey no one is perfect. people seems just to prefer it 100% to be 50 with no one testing values.

Because before patch, everybody tested it to be 50/50/50. I did that myself too. Assuming that DE hasn't changed it is reasonable.

Also, if you haven't noticed, that was edited four days after patch was launched, and in that time, two more patches are released.

1 hour ago, yilmazdurmaz said:

I decided to use 40/65/90 not just for simplicity, because they have a relation: 40+25=65 and 65+25=90. Better to the eye.

You can't just do that with numbers. If 100% is 65, then go with 39/65/91. Fudging numbers like that would hurt your credibility.

Besides, based on your reasoning, 39/65/91 would be even closer to 67.2 (65- 39 = 26, 91 - 65 = 26)

Edited by Renegade343
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3 minutes ago, Renegade343 said:

You can't just do that with numbers. If 100% is 65, then go with 39/65/91. Fudging numbers like that would hurt your credibility.

Because the numbers does not seem to be integers in the game, which also supported, I might say, by the patch notes: "roughly x10" . 39 murmurs might end up not filling the circle while 41 will do most possibly. I called 40 to be reasonable and 40 suits best with additions of 25 more to go next level.

I would rather really appreciate another player's hunt results then merely discussion on my findings. Please try if you have time.

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5 minutes ago, yilmazdurmaz said:

Because the numbers does not seem to be integers in the game, which also supported, I might say, by the patch notes: "roughly x10" . 39 murmurs might end up not filling the circle while 41 will do most possibly. I called 40 to be reasonable and 40 suits best with additions of 25 more to go next level.

Roughly x10 doesn't mean that there has to be floating points. Could be, say, x8, x9, x10, x11, as examples.

You know what would be the best way to test it? Just keep clearing nodes, stabbing thralls only, since clearing all nodes would still make the Lich rank up. Since Liches despawn after you down them three times, that's much more easier.

Edited by Renegade343
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34 minutes ago, timbo_james said:

I'll keep using my 'circle measurement' technique over cases where I know the thrall count.

Here is a quick tip: The line in the circle is 45 degrees exactly. I took a screen shot, zoomed in, and used protractor. Neat 😄

so when you reach this line at first hunt, it takes 1/8 of total. It is roughly 5 murmurs in first circle making the deduced 40. I say rough because of the thickness of the shapes. 7-8 is for 2nd circle and 10-11 is for last. Also completion from end to end of this line takes 1/2 so you can also take a shot of calculations there.

Eager to hear your results, good luck 😉

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6 minutes ago, Renegade343 said:

You know what would be the best way to test it? Just keep clearing nodes, stabbing thralls only, since clearing all nodes would still make the Lich rank up. Since Liches despawn after you down them three times, that's much more easier.

You missed this part in my original post 😄 I did (not since yesterday because I a mobile data player and haven't downloaded update yet.) Can you please get back to it and read the results of two hunts I had. This will clear some questions in your mind.

Edited by yilmazdurmaz
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1 minute ago, yilmazdurmaz said:

You missed this part in my original post 😄 I did (not since yesterday because I a mobile data player and don't downloaded update yet.) Can you please get back to it and read the results of two hunts I had. This will clear some questions in your mind.

Yeah, you stabbed the Lich twice before you got all murmurs. I'm saying never stab the Lich until you get all murmurs. That way, you have a base to work with.

Edited by Renegade343
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