Trinity Frame Blueprint Grinding Completely Bollocks

[Blatantfool]

Will inquire about this a bit later today and see if I can't come back here with some info about it.

[Aerensiniac]

Coin toss probability is explored here with simulation.
When asked the question, what is the probability of a coin toss coming up heads, most people answer without hesitation that it is 50%, 1/2, or 0.5
we get this probability by assuming that the coin is fair, or heads and tails are equally likely
The probability for equally likely outcomes is:
 

Number of outcomes in the event ÷ Total number of possible outcomes
 

For the coin, number of outcomes to get heads = 1
Total number of possible outcomes = 2
Thus, we get 1/2
However, if you suspect that the coin may not be fair, you can toss the coin a large number of times and count the number of heads
Suppose you flip the coin 100 and get 60 heads, then you know the best estimate to get head is 60/100 = 0.6
This way of looking at probability is called the relative frequency estimate of a probability
The interesting thing with this is that the more you flip the coin, the closer you get to 0.5
If you have a computer, you can simulate coin toss probability with different numbers of coin tosses, the result might be a table like this.
 

For 10000 flip, the probability is close to 0.5
Try the same experiment to get the coin toss probability with the following coin flip simulation.
After you have flipped the coin so many times, you should get answers close to 0.5 for both heads and tails

Edited May 15, 2013 by Aerensiniac

[Aerensiniac]

Have you flipped this particular coin 10k times? No? Then you don't have a sample size large enough.

RNG is RNG

Implying that you have to toss the coin 10k times to see whether its RNG or not.

Thank you for bolstering my point: Ppl in this thread have no idea how RNG works.

 

Please go to http://www.basic-mathematics.com/coin-toss-probability.html

At the bottom of the page you will find an RNG with statistics display.

Call us please once you have managed to get 10 tails/heads in a row. Thats the probability of getting 20 BPs without any of them being systems.

 

Good luck. Have fun.

Edited May 15, 2013 by Aerensiniac

[AXCrusnik]

The smaller the amount of rolls, the higher the chance of deviations.

The higher the amount of rolls, the closer you get to balance. In terms of coin flips, its entirely possible to get 3 heads in succession. Does this mean that the chance of a tails happening is 0%?

At 10'000 flips the ration of tails and heads is roughly 49.7%

 

So thank you for your straw man, but systems are clearly not on RNG distribution.

Clearly, huh? Where's your proof. (Hint: Chance percentages for coin flips/RNG =/= proof, neither is explaining what happens when you average out the flips/RNG) Why don't you show me all these people who don't have systems on some spread sheet, because right now I only see a handful complaining about it, a loud minority if you will. On top of that correlation does not imply causation. I had no trouble finding systems for frames and neither did the majority of my clanmates. When I helped them farm for their desired frames it was for helmet/chassis not for systems.

 

Straw man argument or not, neither of us has shown hard evidence for our points.

 

Coincidentally, the majority of my frame blueprints are systems, others say they have TWICE as many systems as chassis.

 

I'm still sticking with RNG is RNG is RNG is RNG until proven otherwise.

[Firebat86]

Shoot my buddies and I were farming for neurodes lsat night, not Trin, and yet we ended up with 2 of each bp and an extra 4-5 of chassis and system.  Kicker is out of all the runs we did 15-20 or so we only got 5 neurodes! >.< 

 

It does suck and can get discouraging, but when you do get it and you throw that part and frame in the oven it sure tastes good coming out!!

[Drakontis]

Implying that you have to toss the coin 10k times to see whether its RNG or not.

Thank you for bolstering my point: Ppl in this thread have no idea how RNG works.

 

Please go to http://www.basic-mathematics.com/coin-toss-probability.html

At the bottom of the page you will find an RNG with statistics display.

Call us please once you have managed to get 10 tails/heads in a row. Thats the probability of getting 20 BPs without any of them being systems.

 

Good luck. Have fun.

 

 

Except it doesn't have just 2 options. There are 4 options. Systems, Chassis, Helm, and none. And while the RNG may be slightly weighted towards none, it doesn't necessarily affect the chance of getting a certain part. I've had decent and sometimes a small amount of luck regarding parts. I've also accidentally made some duplicate parts. But I know that at least eventually, I'll get what I need/want. And even if it is weighted towards some parts rather than others, there is nothing truly in your way. Weighted RNG's may be a pain, but they're not unfair, either, unless it gets to the point to where it's broken, and obviously this system is NOT broken because people are able to get what they want. 

 

But as they say, the squeaky wheel gets the oil. 

[Aerensiniac]

Clearly, huh? Where's your proof. (Hint: Chance percentages for coin flips/RNG =/= proof, neither is explaining what happens when you average out the flips/RNG) Why don't you show me all these people who don't have systems on some spread sheet, because right now I only see a handful complaining about it, a loud minority if you will. On top of that correlation does not imply causation. I had no trouble finding systems for frames and neither did the majority of my clanmates. When I helped them farm for their desired frames it was for helmet/chassis not for systems.

 

Straw man argument or not, neither of us has shown hard evidence for our points.

 

Coincidentally, the majority of my frame blueprints are systems, others say they have TWICE as many systems as chassis.

 

I'm still sticking with RNG is RNG is RNG is RNG until proven otherwise.

You have already been proven wrong.

There is the OP, there is me, there are 3 of my friends with which i have spent a week on hunting systems.

So for starters, i have 6 people with the same issue.

 

6 people which managed to get more than 10 heads on a coin flip in line.

Passing the ball mate. How about YOU proving US that its RNG, cause seemingly you are the lucky exception here.

Statistically, its impossible for systems to be on an RNG drop table. This much i have proven.

[Aerensiniac]

Except it doesn't have just 2 options. There are 4 options. Systems, Chassis, Helm, and none. And while the RNG may be slightly weighted towards none, it doesn't necessarily affect the chance of getting a certain part. I've had decent and sometimes a small amount of luck regarding parts. I've also accidentally made some duplicate parts. But I know that at least eventually, I'll get what I need/want. And even if it is weighted towards some parts rather than others, there is nothing truly in your way. Weighted RNG's may be a pain, but they're not unfair, either, unless it gets to the point to where it's broken, and obviously this system is NOT broken because people are able to get what they want. 

 

But as they say, the squeaky wheel gets the oil. 

Wrong. There are 3 options and not 4.

Getting no drop means that the coin was not flipped at all.

Exactly because there are 3 options, i have asked the folks in here to get me 10 heads in success and not 20. Thats the chance of getting 10-10 chassis-helm and 0 systems.

 

But you are right.

Its always easier to wind up with some witty punch line like "the squeaky wheel gets the oil" and implying that the opposition has 0 point.

Edited May 15, 2013 by Aerensiniac

[Amistyrja]

I've been playing Warframe for a while now and after experiencing what Mag has to offer, I wanted to try something different like a healing class. Trinity appealed to me in this way, so I asked around and looked up what I had to do to get the Trinity warframe short of paying for platinum. After a few days, I got my first chassis and my first helmet and built both, then bought the blueprint. It's been at least a week and a half of playing since then, and well...

 

 

Yeah. This isn't RNG anymore. There's something wrong.

 

I am NOT paying 20 United States Dollars for a frame I have two/thirds completed.

Why are you complaining when you have only 7 Chassis and 5 Helmet BPs lol.

 

 

But yep I made Trinity, Saryn, Nyx and Ember. The last three always had their Systems BPs drop last after collecting idk how many damn chassis and helms. I guess systems really do have a much lower chance of dropping or its being transformed into Orokin Cells somehow.

[Kattefjaes]

6 people which managed to get more than 10 heads on a coin flip in line.

Passing the ball mate. How about YOU proving US that its RNG, cause seemingly you are the lucky exception here.

Statistically, its impossible for systems to be on an RNG drop table. This much i have proven.

 

No, you haven't. This is starting to read like debating with creationists.

[AXCrusnik]

You have already been proven wrong.

There is the OP, there is me, there are 3 of my friends with which i have spent a week on hunting systems.

So for starters, i have 6 people with the same issue.

 

6 people which managed to get more than 10 heads on a coin flip in line.

Passing the ball mate. How about YOU proving US that its RNG, cause seemingly you are the lucky exception here.

Statistically, its impossible for systems to be on an RNG drop table. This much i have proven.

Correlation does not imply causation.  I provided the same argument as you just did (which does not count as proof [read the first sentence in this response]). Just as before we are at an impasse. NEITHER is proven, but unlucky RNG whiners is more probable than it just not being on the RNG table at all.

 

The way the saying goes is INNOCENT until proven guilty, not GUILTY until proven innocent. The burden of proof is on your end, sir.

Edited May 15, 2013 by AXCrusnik

[Sebbo]

Its fun that you guys still go for the coin example (and yes, sure its RNG) which has 2 options (heads or tails). Even though that a coin is RNG aswell. you still have a 50% chance of getting something or 50% of getting nothing.

 

We have to deal here with a situation which has 4 options (1,2,3 and 4 (which will be no drop)) where the result can be more frustrating over time because you need 3 of the 4 options to reach the goal you set. If you get one of the three options the possibility of getting "nothing" (lets say we got a helmet) is getting even bigger and so on and so on. Have you ever flipped a coin sized like a tetrahedron? have fun with that thing.

 

As i said this over and over that i can live with it, but i am honestly not sure how this will affect my effort in the game. I already try to bring my focus on gathering ressources for the clan dojo (where i have no clue what ressources we do need) to keep myself away from the fact that i have a loki blueprint sitting in my foundry which has 2 out of 3 parts for weeks and weeks, casualy visiting Hyena and hope for the last drop.

 

P.S.: after 42 coin flips on this page, i had 21 heads, 21 tales.

Edited May 15, 2013 by Sebbo

[MoonicusMaximus]

People seem to be under the assumption that all three parts of the warframe blueprint drops have the same drop chances, when it has never been stated as thus.

 

Systems are the rarest of the three by a wide margin. I would assume this is because their drop chance is lowered.

 

But seeing as we were never actually officially led to believe the opposite, I don't see it as much of an issue. They are pretty rare. RNG will have to favor you to get one, but you will eventually get it.

[odin2993]

I happen to agree with this post i have built a warframe before rhino to be exact i have purchased frost volt loki i think i built rhino before or during update 6 since update 7 i have not found a single thing realted to constructing a warframe of any kind.

 

i have blueprints for ember mag and ash i also have the head pieces for ash and mag i have done all boss fights in one day one after another fed up of getting junk materials like polymer bundle for killing a lvl 50 boss i am very frustrated that i cant seem to construct more frames by myself i have capped out excalibur loki rhino frost doing volt now but after volt im stuck i have already spent enough platinum on this game in my opinion i am a founder i have bought platinum for new weapons and it seems to me im going to need to pay for warframes.

 

i will however say that i have constructed alot of weapons with ease but why make the warframes this difficult yes i know the game only profits from the buying of platinum and thats fine im not gonna go mad over paying a little cash however i have payed well over what i would have been expected to pay for this game either digital or on a shelf.

 

At this point i dare say i would not mind paying a subscription and make the grinding less tedious i have completed over 500 missions in this game and only have a rhino frame to show for it.

[Aerensiniac]

No, you haven't. This is starting to read like debating with creationists.

Correlation does not imply causation.  I provided the same argument as you just did (which does not count as proof [read the first sentence in this response]). Just as before we are at an impasse. NEITHER is proven, but unlucky RNG whiners is more probable than it just not being on the RNG table at all.

 

What the **** are you two on about?

We have more than one report of systems not appearing within 15-20 BP drops.

If this is RNG, then it means that 6 guys successfully rolled ~10 heads in a row, which has a chance of 1 in 1034.

 

If this is not statistical proof, then i agree. This is completely like arguing with creationists cause neither of you seem to have the slightest ducking idea what you are on about.

Edited May 15, 2013 by Aerensiniac

[Hezekiah]

Took me over 60 runs to get Rhino, I feel your pain, BUT i have gotten every other frame in under 20 runs, so hang in there.

[Aerensiniac]

People seem to be under the assumption that all three parts of the warframe blueprint drops have the same drop chances, when it has never been stated as thus.

Saying that its ruled by RNG is stating exactly this. That the 3 parts have the exact same 33% drop chance on the long run.

 

Systems are the rarest of the three by a wide margin. I would assume this is because their drop chance is lowered.

Exactly. This is what the talk is about.

Edited May 15, 2013 by Aerensiniac

[MoonicusMaximus]

Saying that its ruled by RNG is stating exactly this. That the 3 parts have the exact same 33% drop chance on the long run.

 

Exactly. This is what the talk is about.

 

Random numbers game doesn't intrinsically mean that all three parts of the blueprints drop at the same frequency. It just means their drop chances are random, not equally random in relation to one another.

 

It's a pretty common time-grind for free games to have critical items with low drop chances. The Monster Hunter franchise does it all the time, and people love that junk.

[Sebbo]

Saying that its ruled by RNG is stating exactly this. That the 3 parts have the exact same 33% drop chance on the long run.

 

Your forgot the possibility for no drop at all, which is also common. :)

[Aerensiniac]

Random numbers game doesn't intrinsically mean that all three parts of the blueprints drop at the same frequency. It just means their drop chances are random, not equally random in relation to one another.

 

It's a pretty common time-grind for free games to have critical items with low drop chances. The Monster Hunter franchise does it all the time, and people love that junk.

It means that the more times you do a roll, the closer you will get to 33%

Same with coin flipping.

4 flips - 1 heads - 0.25%

100 flips - 56 heads - 0.56%

1000 flips - 510 heads - 0.51%

10000 flips - 4988 heads - 0.4988%

 

So in a low amount of attempts, its true that they do not have the same fixed drop percentage.

This does not change the fact that the longer you farm, the closer you should get to 33%.

This is not the case in a bunch of people's experience, hence im saying that systems is not on RNG.

[Ryanshow]

And trolls are trolls.

Your example does not provide any clarifications towards the players who did not get a single systems from 20 or 30 drops.

 

IT provides clarification that the system is indeed not "rigged" and it is certainly possible to get all the pieces.

[Ryanshow]

Implying that you have to toss the coin 10k times to see whether its RNG or not.

Thank you for bolstering my point: Ppl in this thread have no idea how RNG works.

 

Please go to http://www.basic-mathematics.com/coin-toss-probability.html

At the bottom of the page you will find an RNG with statistics display.

Call us please once you have managed to get 10 tails/heads in a row. Thats the probability of getting 20 BPs without any of them being systems.

 

Good luck. Have fun.

 

A two sided coin flip ten times is the same probability for a 4 option system?

 

Thanks for bolstering the point that you don't know what you're talking about.

 

Also neither of us know the makeup of this system either 2 options.

 

First it determines whether anything drops then once it determines that something does it does a 3 sided die roll.

 

Option 2: It rolls against all 4 options at the same time.

 

I'd actually assume the first option, that's just how I'd instinctively program it. Its makes for simpler, more elegant code to do it that way IMO, and better suited towards refactoring.

 

Once you get two parts it stands to reason that you have less of a chance to get what you want.

 

It happens

 

[BadAimbot]

I got two sets of Trinity trying to get 6 Neurodes. Dat RNG, man.