Rng Seed Bound To Account?

[PnOyLeeT]

my theory is that "RNG is a spinning wheel"

 

once u enter and the mission start that wheel will start spinning and once u extract that will also stop.

 

thats why in farming Prime Parts i sometimes hear people say "LATENCY"

 

which they wanna dictate what time they wanna extract or even let the timer expire itself

 

i see this happened and came out successful

like farming that annoying Trinity System all we keep getting was Boltor Barrel

then this one guy delayed the extract and we got it 

 

[atom]

time played 90d, 3h, 29m ... is that enough to notice it? it was for me

[Tio_do_Sam]

It reminds those times when I played solo on Intercep IV just to get 5 fusion cores as reward. ha ha

[Buff00n]

what do you mean by four seeds? only the host's seed matters for drops

I guess that would be one way of reconciling it.  

 

But still, it's easier to just use the default RNG and not seed it explicitly.  You get the same statistical result with much less work.  Typically, unless they're working at the operating system level, the only time a programmer explicitly seeds a pseudo-RNG is when they want to be able to repeat the exact same random sequence more than once.  There are times that's necessary, but this is not one of them.

[Aggh]

DE does alter loot tables drop rates per account, see the following warframe wiki page:

 

http://warframe.wikia.com/wiki/Seer, specifically this portion:

 

"The Seer's components used to have the same drop algorithm as the Cronus blueprint; every subsequent visit to Tolstoj used to decrease the drop rate. This has since been fixed."

 

They have precedent and motive. 

Cronus has a decreasing drop rate because it's supposed to be a drop for beginners to replace skana with, but in early beta people were grinding cronus BPs for credits.  They gave it a decreasing drop rate so people would play other content instead of just grinding vor for cronus BPs all day.

 

time played 90d, 3h, 29m ... is that enough to notice it? it was for me

No, it's still anecdotal evidence at best.

Edited October 16, 2015 by Aggh

[atom]

I don't think you understand how RNG works.

The thing about RNG (not that its ever truly 100% balanced) is that you are just as likely to have consistent horrible luck as you are consistent good luck, or even a decent mix.

Correlation does not always equal causation, not to mention you would need a much larger sample size and sufficient supporting evidence, which you don't have, to make such a conclusion even remotely more accurate.

 

By contrast my luck with RNG (I'm mostly solo so no changes in seeds are relevant) regularly fluctuate from good to band and all thing inbetween.

How does that fit into your theory?

you can't have consistent bad luck most of the time and precisely one week of amazing luck coinciding with a promo code and plat spending and call it random ... its fishy at the very least

 

that's why i made this topic to get a larger sample size with other player's experience

 

maybe there are tiers of seeds? with one end being out of luck and the other basking in all it's glory? maybe if you don't play so much it's not as noticeable?

[Konga]

This would explain 1.5k hours and never getting a Hate..

[atom]

I guess that would be one way of reconciling it.  

 

But still, it's easier to just use the default RNG and not seed it explicitly.  You get the same statistical result with much less work.  Typically, unless they're working at the operating system level, the only time a programmer explicitly seeds a pseudo-RNG is when they want to be able to repeat the exact same random sequence more than once.  There are times that's necessary, but this is not one of them.

i agree with you there except the results i have in all this time support the seed/account theory

[SolidBeer]

Dang!  I should have invested my money in tin foil.

[StinkyPygmy]

you can't have consistent bad luck most of the time and precisely one week of amazing luck coinciding with a promo code and plat spending and call it random ... its fishy at the very least

 

that's why i made this topic to get a larger sample size with other player's experience

 

maybe there are tiers of seeds? with one end being out of luck and the other basking in all it's glory? maybe if you don't play so much it's not as noticeable?

Actually, you can have consistent bad luck and then suddenly good luck after spending plat etc. Thats how pseudo-RNG (kinda) and real RNG work.

I repeat: Correlation does not always equal causation. 

Its, potentially fishy yes, but then how do you account for all the people with the opposite experience?

I know of examples where spending money/plat has not alleviated streaks of bad RNG.

I've personally had terrible RNG after buying a fair amount of plat myself.

You would need much more solid evidence for your theory to hold any weight.

 

My point is that for as many examples of your situation there are just as many contradictory examples.

[Tsukinoki]

DE does alter loot tables drop rates per account, see the following warframe wiki page:

 

http://warframe.wikia.com/wiki/Seer, specifically this portion:

 

"The Seer's components used to have the same drop algorithm as the Cronus blueprint; every subsequent visit to Tolstoj used to decrease the drop rate. This has since been fixed."

 

They have precedent and motive. 

They implemented that for the Cronus (and accidently for the seer as that was a bug the bug being that they applied it to all of Vors BP drops instead of just the Cronus) because back before they did it everyone would grind Vor for Cronus drops to get credits quickly.

They decided that instead of just making the Cronus super rare and hard to get when it is supposed to be a tennos first step up from the skana DE decided to make it so that the more Cronus drops for you the less chance you'll get it again to curb abuse.

That is why the Cronus has special rules on it that nothing else does.

 

you can't have consistent bad luck most of the time and precisely one week of amazing luck coinciding with a promo code and plat spending and call it random ... its fishy at the very least

 

that's why i made this topic to get a larger sample size with other player's experience

 

maybe there are tiers of seeds? with one end being out of luck and the other basking in all it's glory? maybe if you don't play so much it's not as noticeable?

And that is called confirmation bias.

And that's all it is.

You spent plat and saw you were getting good drops.

I've done the same and got nothing special before.

You got lucky for a week it happens and doesn't mean anything.

Don't let confirmation bias blind you.

Edited October 16, 2015 by Tsukinoki

[StinkyPygmy]

i agree with you there except the results i have in all this time support the seed/account theory

They don't support really anything even remotely conclusive.

Hence players that have contradictory experiences to you.

Your situation is anecdotal at best and needs more (much more) to hold weight.

Edited October 16, 2015 by StinkyPygmy

[Buff00n]

you can't have consistent bad luck most of the time and precisely one week of amazing luck coinciding with a promo code and plat spending and call it random ... its fishy at the very least

Yeah it's fishy, but the plural of anecdote is not data.  Also, this is likely to be a biased sample since I'm guessing you played more than your usual amount to make the most of the resource boost and whatever else you bought.  Maybe you're just remembering the good luck and forgetting the bad?

 

maybe there are tiers of seeds? with one end being out of luck and the other basking in all it's glory? maybe if you don't play so much it's not as noticeable?

Again, a pseudo-RNG seed does not affect probability.  You're talking about drop rates, the actual probability, and not an RNG seed.  Are drop rates different for different people?  Again, doubtful, but that at least is the correct question to be asking.

[Pyus]

I'm 99% sure that was a bug. 

It was a while ago.

Either way it was fixed and DE have very little reason to rig the drop rates on a per account basis. 

 

 

 

They implemented that...

 

Just providing confirmation that DE has in the past altered drop rates by account. I do not care WHY they did it, they have the ability to, and they have. 

[Lynxh]

you can't have consistent bad luck most of the time and precisely one week of amazing luck coinciding with a promo code and plat spending and call it random ... its fishy at the very least

 

that's why i made this topic to get a larger sample size with other player's experience

 

maybe there are tiers of seeds? with one end being out of luck and the other basking in all it's glory? maybe if you don't play so much it's not as noticeable?

 

The problem with this is that the only way for this to be even remotely true is if you can consistently reproduce this effect. Which I can already personally say is not the case(or rather if it were I would have been affected by this along with my mates, which isn't the case in the slightest). There is no reason to believe anything fishy is going on until you have consistent proof of this besides "it feeling fishy". Nothing you mentioned can qualify as an even remotely adequate sample size.

 

So far it just comes across as conspiracy theory, aka making dots where there are none simply "because", while lacking any form of objective proof. Correlation doesn't equal causation, if plat actually caused anything to happen, we would have seen this happen consistently over the years. Unless you can provide actual evidence of this you have nothing. Your experience proves nothing since it's all completely plausible within a RNG system, and a lot of experiences counter yours. 

[atom]

Actually, you can have consistent bad luck and then suddenly good luck after spending plat etc. Thats how pseudo-RNG (kinda) and real RNG work.

I repeat: Correlation does not always equal causation. 

Its, potentially fishy yes, but then how do you account for all the people with the opposite experience?

I know of examples where spending money/plat has not alleviated streaks of bad RNG.

I've personally had terrible RNG after buying a fair amount of plat myself.

You would need much more solid evidence for your theory to hold any weight.

 

My point is that for as many examples of your situation there are just as many contradictory examples.

i don't have evidence for any of this it's just my extensive experience. and tbh i think it's more tied to that promo code i used rather than money spent.

what i'm trying to determine here is if there's a seed/account system in place and if so i call it unfair and wish it be changed to something better for everyone.

[Thumper3]

Where's my tinfoil hat????!!

WHERE!?!?!?!?!?!

Oh god, I just flipped a coin 4 times and it ALWAYS CAME UP TAILS!! The government must be rigging coins by bank account.

Seriously folks, random is random, you can parade out anecdotal experiences as "evidence" all you want but it's pointless and proves nothing. Anecdotal fallacies do not prove anything.

Someone get a copy of the code for drops showing a value for "account RNG multiplier" and you've got proof. Until then, "I ran so many runs and never got anything, then I joined a friend and we got it in the first run!!" is meaningless. How do you know you wouldn't have gotten that part on your next solo run?

Here you go for anecdotal hyperbole.

Been running missions for the Lex P receiver for over a week, I only get keys, cores, and the same Ankyros part over and over. I did over 3 dozen ODD runs to get the Ember P BP before it was gone, never saw it once. Sounds like my account has a "bad seed" huh? Yet last night I did one run of T3Sab.....and got the Trinity P Chassis.

Random is just random, and there's nothing that says you can't just plain have bad luck with random.

[Tsukinoki]

Just providing confirmation that DE has in the past altered drop rates by account. I do not care WHY they did it, they have the ability to, and they have. 

Drop rates =/= RNG Seed

It doesn't matter that the drop rate for the cronus lowers the more you get it.

Why?  Because that does not affect your RNG at all.

It is in no way like DE goes through and says "This account gets 40% lower drop rates!" or "This account gets 5% better drop rates!"

Drop rates don't relate to the RNG seeds of accounts in any direct way.

So your statement is kinda extraneous and adds nothing to the conversation besides fear mongering.

[atom]

The problem with this is that the only way for this to be even remotely true is if you can consistently reproduce this effect. Which I can already personally say is not the case(or rather if it were I would have been affected by this along with my mates, which isn't the case in the slightest). There is no reason to believe anything fishy is going on until you have consistent proof of this besides "it feeling fishy". Nothing you mentioned can qualify as an even remotely adequate sample size.

 

So far it just comes across as conspiracy theory, aka making dots where there are none simply "because", while lacking any form of objective proof. Correlation doesn't equal causation, if plat actually caused anything to happen, we would have seen this happen consistently over the years. Unless you can provide actual evidence of this you have nothing. Your experience proves nothing since it's all completely plausible within a RNG system, and a lot of experiences counter yours. 

i can prove my bad "luck" if you want common cores, pressure point and common sentinel mods run a mission with me as host anytime.

[atom]

Where's my tinfoil hat????!! WHERE!?!?!?!?!?! Oh god, I just flipped a coin 4 times and it ALWAYS CAME UP TAILS!! The government must be rigging coins by bank account. Seriously folks, random is random, you can parade out anecdotal experiences as "evidence" all you want but it's pointless and proves nothing. Anecdotal fallacies do not prove anything. Someone get a copy of the code for drops showing a value for "account RNG multiplier" and you've got proof. Until then, "I ran so many runs and never got anything, then I joined a friend and we got it in the first run!!" is meaningless. How do you know you wouldn't have gotten that part on your next solo run? Here you go for anecdotal hyperbole. Been running missions for the Lex P receiver for over a week, I only get keys, cores, and the same Ankyros part over and over. I did over 3 dozen ODD runs to get the Ember P BP before it was gone, never saw it once. Sounds like my account has a "bad seed" huh? Yet last night I did one run of T3Sab.....and got the Trinity P Chassis. Random is just random, and there's nothing that says you can't just plain have bad luck with random.

it seems to me to be something other than random because across a long time played i noticed certain patterns. like if the mods dropped by mobs are rare you will probably get a rare reward as well and vice versa.

[Tsukinoki]

it seems to me to be something other than random because across a long time played i noticed certain patterns. like if the mods dropped by mobs are rare you will probably get a rare reward as well and vice versa.

I've had plenty of times going through missions, such as Spy or Void, getting through the map and going "Oh I've gotten a decent amount of R5 cores and other rare mods!" and then get Cores or Forma or Keys as a reward and nothing good.

I've also gone through and gotten crap drops through the match and gotten one of the rarer pieces at the end.

I've also had plenty of times of the opposite that match your observation.

But do those out-number the others so drastically that its obvious and actually related?  Hek no.

All of those situations happen roughly equally.

I've also gotten mediocre drops and rewards throughout.

Simple fact is:

The human brain is hard-wired to find patterns in things.  Even where they don't exist.

And that's what is happening here.

You're having bad luck and trying to figure out the reason.  Your brain is supplying these "patterns" and confirmation bias.

Edited October 16, 2015 by Tsukinoki

[(PSN)SancticuS]

I suggest you read this OP

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/moslive/article-1334712/Humans-concept-randomness-hard-understand.html

 

Also seeing that Warframe have 16,6m registerd users across all platforms do you really think they sit and program seeds for all those accounts instead of simply coding static drop rates for all items ?

[Pyus]

Not sure how to phrase this, but everything you said is incorrect. 

 

Drop rates =/= RNG Seed

The changing the rate at which an item drops, by definition, alters the RNG, this is by an account basis. 

 

 

 

It doesn't matter that the drop rate for the cronus lowers the more you get it.
Why?  Because that does not affect your RNG at all.

 

This is exactly what they did with the seer drop rates, I provided a historical source and your argument is "They would not do that"  

 

 

Drop rates don't relate to the RNG seeds of accounts in any direct way.

Source on this? I provided mine, let's see yours. 

 

 

 

 

Do you really think they sit and program seeds for all those accounts instead of simply coding static drop rates for all items?

 

For a programmer, it would be trivial to set an account seed system up. 

Edited October 16, 2015 by Pyus

[atom]

I've had plenty of times going through missions, such as Spy or Void, getting through the map and going "Oh I've gotten a decent amount of R5 cores and other rare mods!" and then get Cores or Forma or Keys as a reward and nothing good.

I've also gone through and gotten crap drops through the match and gotten one of the rarer pieces at the end.

I've also had plenty of times of the opposite that match your observation.

But do those out-number the others so drastically that its obvious and actually related?  Hek no.

All of those situations happen roughly equally.

I've also gotten mediocre drops and rewards throughout.

Simple fact is:

The human brain is hard-wired to find patterns in things.  Even where they don't exist.

And that's what is happening here.

You're having bad luck and trying to figure out the reason.  Your brain is supplying these "patterns" and confirmation bias.

not all rare mods are really rare "power throw" is a bad sign for example

 

i agree with the pattern way of thinking which is why this is all a theory. and i'm asking you all for your experience to get a better picture

Edited October 16, 2015 by ..atom..

[Tsukinoki]

The changing the rate at which an item drops, by definition, alters the RNG, this is by an account basis. 

Changing the drop rate does not alter the RNG.  They are different hings.

For example:

Say you have an item that drops 70% of the time, or 7/10.

Your RNG will generate a number between 1 and 10.  If it is 7 or lower you get the item.

Every time you get the item the drop rate lowers by 10%.

Your RNG is unaffected.  It still generates a perfectly random number between 1 and 10. 

The only difference is the goal number it has to roll under.

They are changing the drop chance not the RNG that determines whether you get the drop or not.

They are not directly related.

You are trying to tie two different things together far more tightly than they actually are.

Because if what you were saying is true then you are saying that they are instead doing this:

The item has a 70% drop rate the first time.

The first time you try getting it it generates a number between 1 and 10.

The item still has a 70% drop rate but now your RNG generates a number that is between 2 and 10.

So on and so on until you can't get under a 7.

That is completely different than what DE is doing.

That example would be changing the RNG, not the drop rate.

So yes, the drop rate =/= RNG.

They are related, but please don't try to make them out to be the same thing like you have been doing.

And do this:

Prove that DE does that drop rate (not RNG) change on a per account basis beyond the Cronus.

DO a large enough sampling with two accounts and prove that RNG is dependant on account and nothing else.

Or try to prove that they are changing the RNG and not the drop rate.

 

Edited October 16, 2015 by Tsukinoki