Relics should not give duplicate rewards.

[Demon.King]

The only thing that should be done is prevent all 4 drops from being identical. Give at minimum 2 different choices, or the relic system is meaningless considering that it happens more often than math would suggest due to how warframe calculates its RNG...

Edited August 25, 2016 by Demon.King

[Sebrent]

@Demon.King They practically have done that. Again, you have a less than 0.5% chance of this happening. If there is only one choice in such a small number of instances, I'd say it's not really a problem.

As far as what's-his-name's sense of entitlement ... yes, it is a sense of entitlement when you think you deserve something.

[rockscl]

1 hour ago, Sebrent said:

@Demon.King They practically have done that. Again, you have a less than 0.5% chance of this happening. If there is only one choice in such a small number of instances, I'd say it's not really a problem.

As far as what's-his-name's sense of entitlement ... yes, it is a sense of entitlement when you think you deserve something.

Lol, when i said "reward", i was imagining a slot machine where you got that small chance of popping all the same, i was thinking it would be fun to get an extra from that,but clearly in your small childish imagination you assumed that your self projection onto my idea was actually the only possible origin for it, the thing you see is so far from me that i wonder what kind of deep problems you have to have such a laser level focus onto your own perception of things that you cant even discuss the idea, instead of going for "senses", two post already and no one discussing the actual idea, only talking about your own imaginations, good one.

[Sebrent]

@rockscl

You got 4 Forma because getting 4 of a kind in Warframe doesn't mean a thing except that's your only option.

You then stated that you wanted it to give you more because of that.

We should be at least "rewarded if this happens", like converting the repeated one into ENDO and giving it to the players as an extra.

That's entitlement.

Feel free to continue with the insults. I'll stick with the facts :-)

As far as talking about the actual post ... please see the math I did for them. Thank you for reading.

Edited August 25, 2016 by Sebrent
Added quote.

[rockscl]

 

16 minutes ago, Sebrent said:

 

You got 4 Forma because getting 4 of a kind in Warframe doesn't mean a thing except that's your only option.

You then stated that you wanted it to give you more because of that.

My suggestion is literally about making it a thing, because it is not, so your post is a repetition of the starting point, thus its a trivial thing to say ;)

16 minutes ago, Sebrent said:

That's entitlement.

Again, instead of discussing my idea, you do the guessing of why am i saying that, being your guess terribly far fro me, thus a self projection of yourself, i even explained the real origin of my idea, and you seem to rather ignore it, why?

16 minutes ago, Sebrent said:

 

Feel free to continue with the insults. I'll stick with the facts :-)

Sorry, where did i insult you?

 

Mi idea is about turning that horrible little chance of 4 formas into an interesting rewards, please, discuss that and not my mental background.

Edited August 25, 2016 by rockscl

[Sebrent]

 

8 minutes ago, rockscl said:

My suggestion is literally about making it a thing, because it is not, so your post is a repetition of the starting point, thus its a trivial thing to say ;)

Again, instead of discussing my idea, you do the guessing of why am i saying that, being your guess terribly far fro me, thus a self projection of yourself, i even explained the real origin of my idea, and you seem to rather ignore it, why?

Here was your original suggestion:

3 hours ago, rockscl said:

We should be at least "rewarded if this happens", like converting the repeated one into ENDO and giving it to the players as an extra.

Perhaps the mistake was in your wording, but "should be at least" implies that a bare minimum of what "should be" is not being met and the bare minimum you set forth in this post is additional rewards ... hence where "entitlement" came from.

Also, just to be clear, whether or not you feel entitled to such rewards is independent of whether or not that entitlement is justified.

 

8 minutes ago, rockscl said:

Sorry, where did i insult you?

Well ,let's look at those other posts of yours.

3 hours ago, rockscl said:

Im sorry little genius, but the sense of entitlement comes only from your self projection on my words, what a disgusting way of questioning other peoples suggestions, good job.

 

28 minutes ago, rockscl said:

Lol, when i said "reward", i was imagining a slot machine where you got that small chance of popping all the same, i was thinking it would be fun to get an extra from that,but clearly in your small childish imagination you assumed that your self projection onto my idea was actually the only possible origin for it, the thing you see is so far from me that i wonder what kind of deep problems you have to have such a laser level focus onto your own perception of things that you cant even discuss the idea, instead of going for "senses", two post already and no one discussing the actual idea, only talking about your own imaginations, good one.

If it isn't as clear as day, I'm sorry, we have nothing left to speak of on this subject.

Might I suggest you take after a popular Disney theme song and "let it go".

 

I believe the original OP's issue with it even being possible has already been covered ... the math for it even being given.

Others have chimed in as well that that is just bad luck sometimes ... especially give the extremely low probability.

 

If people want it to give some sort of "joke" reward like a slot machine ... have at it ... but I don't think it is something that, at bare minimum, should be done. It is something that could be done ... though I'm sure people would then complain about what the reward is/isn't, that devs spent/wasted too much/little time on it, and whatever else people come up with to complain about.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[(PSN)Deception_Pharo]

7 hours ago, TheScytale said:

So what do you suggest? make forma available in only one relic or...?

Increase the rarity of your relic.

[TheScytale]

@kubbi Sebrent did say that the highest chance of it happening is 0.41%.

Take a look at your screenshot: The formas are not even common (the setting that Serbent used in his math section). In your particular situation, the chance of getting that "again" ranges from 0.16% to ~0.015% depending on the quality of relics. That's... 625 to 6830 fissure runs with 4 people having the same relic. Honestly I and many others would rather have the devs focus on a problem that is more important and common, rather than "fix" an ultra rare occurrence (which is only an issue for you because you rolled 4 forma) and risk breaking something else in the process.

2 hours ago, (PS4)Deception_Pharo said:

Increase the rarity of your relic.

If you mean tweak the odds of getting some reward, that will solve nothing. And if you want to remove duplicates from reward screens, it's just not reasonable. That would make you get at least one uncommon in one run, and increase the rare drops' chances up to twice what they are. The current "rare" are common enough as they are.

[(PSN)Deception_Pharo]

11 hours ago, TheScytale said:

If you mean tweak the odds of getting some reward, that will solve nothing. And if you want to remove duplicates from reward screens, it's just not reasonable. That would make you get at least one uncommon in one run, and increase the rare drops' chances up to twice what they are. The current "rare" are common enough as they are.

By adding another rarity which cost a lot more.

[(PSN)salovel1991]

21 hours ago, Sebrent said:

Because it's only a "problem" because you are labeling it a "problem".

Because you claim "it's not even that uncommon" when I just proved to you that it is quite uncommon ... statistically less than 1 out of 243 runs.

If you're going to complain about something or even talk about something ... realize what is simply your opinion ... and get your facts straight.

It's not as uncommon as you think. I ran a whole squad of Radiant relics for Akstilleto 3 times and got Braton barrels across the board 3 times. Talk about wasted time. Also has happened 2 times with Fragor head. I'm not saying to implement everyone gets something different but it's still pretty common. I only run a few fissures here and there except today. Still quite common. 

[Sebrent]

@(PS4)salovel1991

Are you trolling?

You have essentially said ... "Hey, I'm ignoring the math that proves that this is rare and telling you this anecdote that allows me to ignore it."

Does the newest generation of gamers not understand math? statistics? The meaning of "anecdote"? "fact"?

./facepalm

[ZabbaHead]

On 8/25/2016 at 8:12 AM, Sebrent said:

@kubbi Fine ... let me do the math for you.

The highest chance of getting 4 formas is going to come from getting 4 Common Formas from Intact Relics.

• You have a 76% chance of getting a common drop from an intact relic. So 0.76⁴ = 0.3336 = 33.36% chance that all 4 players get a common drop.
• You have a 1/3 chance of of getting a particular common drop. So, assuming a common drop for all, the chance that all 4 get the same common drop is (1/3)⁴ = 0.012345679... ~1.23%
• So the chance that all 4 players with intact relics got the same uncommon forma drop is 0.3336 * 0.012345679 = 0.0041 = 0.41% chance

That is a less than 1% chance of this happening. I think you can deal with that.

But, perhaps you seem to think that less than half of 1% if "not even that uncommon" :-p

 

4 hours ago, Sebrent said:

@(PS4)salovel1991

Are you trolling?

You have essentially said ... "Hey, I'm ignoring the math that proves that this is rare and telling you this anecdote that allows me to ignore it."

Does the newest generation of gamers not understand math? statistics? The meaning of "anecdote"? "fact"?

./facepalm

I don't think your math accurately reflects what actually happens in the game. This has happened to me several times as well; almost always with full radiant groups. I don't think I have even ran 100 fissures total and have experienced this garbage at least 5 times. So you 0.41% chance may be mathematically correct, but is invalid in my experience.

[ZabbaHead]

This has happened to me twice today.....in less than 10 fissures. Both times all radiant. 0.4% chance my arse. One time was all forma, the second all paris prime limb.

 

In the instance that this occurs, the RNG should re-roll one of the rewards so some element of choice is still present.

 

The math is a lie.

[Loswaith]

On 8/26/2016 at 0:12 AM, Sebrent said:

@kubbi Fine ... let me do the math for you.

The highest chance of getting 4 formas is going to come from getting 4 Common Formas from Intact Relics.

• You have a 76% chance of getting a common drop from an intact relic. So 0.76⁴ = 0.3336 = 33.36% chance that all 4 players get a common drop.
• You have a 1/3 chance of of getting a particular common drop. So, assuming a common drop for all, the chance that all 4 get the same common drop is (1/3)⁴ = 0.012345679... ~1.23%
• So the chance that all 4 players with intact relics got the same uncommon forma drop is 0.3336 * 0.012345679 = 0.0041 = 0.41% chance

That is a less than 1% chance of this happening. I think you can deal with that.

But, perhaps you seem to think that less than half of 1% if "not even that uncommon" :-p

While the chances are mathematically very low, it is amusing that I've personally seen this 4 times (with 4 person grps and alot more with 2/3 person grps) now  and I've done maybe 100 or so relics in total (if that).  This is the same thing as some players not getting a rare void part after 100 or so missions, which was just as statistically improbable (which is part of what inspired the change in the first place).

The prime hunt has always produced duplicates with its RNG rather frequently compared to what the mathematics is saying that frequency should be. So much so that I'm convinced its behavior is more akin to a semi random adjusted bell curve (per session) than a linear spread, even to the point that you could predict the exact reward with high accuracy (guessing about 7-8 correctly in 10 rewards) after seeing the first 2-3 rewards, despite a table of ~10 different rewards.

Edited August 27, 2016 by Loswaith

[Fugana]

I got Nekros Prime BP afer 3days farming almost nonstop at the days G G to me GG 

[Sebrent]

@ZabbaHead @Loswaith

That's fine if you don't think that's the mathematical model for it ... what do you think the model looks like then? I'm curious as I can't think of a way they could logically structure it that would make this event any more likely ... surely not "common".

Other than that one question, all you two have done as well is give more anecdotes and show that even more people playing this game don't properly understand math / statistics.

I'll try to simplify it for you ... over an extended period of time to eliminate reduce the effect of outliers (i.e. good/bad "luck"), you will experience numbers that resemble the statistic. Why is this required? Because even though I have a 50-50 chance of getting heads or tails on a coin, I could have a string of "luck" that skews it so that I've gotten heads 75% of the time. But if I flip that coin enough times, it will resemble 50-50 as those are the actual odds of it happening. This is basic 101 statistics material which borders on common sense.

Additionally, you are not the only ones running these relics. Out of the thousands of relics runs every day, that small percentage will experience this. If that happens to be you, sorry, you're experiencing a said outlier; or "bad luck". It's similar to having a 10% chance of getting a rare ... so 10 times should get it for you ... but sometimes it takes more than that ... sometimes it takes less.

@Fugana

And another anecdote ... lol.

Edited August 27, 2016 by Sebrent

[ShiraHagane]

sooo, you're complaining that you were really unlucky?

[(PSN)salovel1991]

10 hours ago, Sebrent said:

@(PS4)salovel1991

Are you trolling?

You have essentially said ... "Hey, I'm ignoring the math that proves that this is rare and telling you this anecdote that allows me to ignore it."

Does the newest generation of gamers not understand math? statistics? The meaning of "anecdote"? "fact"?

./facepalm

Perhaps I should facepalm myself. I simply stated that regardless of your "Math" the rewards doing what was in this screenshot regardless of intact, flawless, radiant is more common than not. If you know the drop chances of the items does that mean you've been reading data mined information? Regardless I was stating my experience, not trying to get into an argument.

ex·pe·ri·ence

ˌikˈspirēəns/

noun

1. 1.

   practical contact with and observation of facts or events.

   "he had already learned his lesson by painful experience"

    

Edited August 27, 2016 by (PS4)salovel1991

[Sebrent]

@(PS4)salovel1991 Lol. Please check out anecdotal.

an·ec·do·tal

ˌanəkˈdōdl/

adjective

 

1. (of an account) not necessarily true or reliable, because based on personal accounts rather than facts or research.

 

No one is questioning whether or not it happened / happens. The telling of if happening X times to you/others is anecdotal.

As far as the drop chances ... there's a wiki ... http://warframe.wikia.com/wiki/Void_Relics ... information is fed from those who do data mining.

 

[Loswaith]

2 hours ago, Sebrent said:

Additionally, you are not the only ones running these relics. Out of the thousands of relics runs every day, that small percentage will experience this. If that happens to be you, sorry, you're experiencing a said outlier; or "bad luck". It's similar to having a 10% chance of getting a rare ... so 10 times should get it for you ... but sometimes it takes more than that ... sometimes it takes less.

It is irrelevant if thousands are running it if the chance is the same for every individual, it shouldn't just show-up frequently for one person and not at all for another. (the frequency being the issue here)

If it does do that it shows it is a flawed seed for the RNG , because it simply isn't equal for all individuals, its just equal across all individuals.  For games you want the former not the latter because you aren't simply polling all individuals as the same number of instances, you have a variety of instances per player.  In essence those that have seen it really shouldn't see it again for a long time, but that simply isn't the case.  
Simple fact of the matter is if we both run the same number of missions and I have access only to results from 1 to 50, and you only have access to results from 51-100, it is clearly even across the 1 to 100 results both of us put together, but not even close to equal for either of us individually.

 

We can all only observe this anecdotally as we don't have any way to prove our data is any more legitimate than someone elses, and just because the drop chances are one way doesn't mean underlying selection RNG isn't the thing that is the issue.

Edited August 27, 2016 by Loswaith

[Sebrent]

@Loswaith For what you're talking about to actually be a concern, the RNG leveraged by the game would have to use some attribute(s) of a player in the generation of values. I highly doubt this is being done. You are grossly misunderstanding that part of what I said so I'll try to simplify it.

 

If I flip a coin 100 times and thousands of other people each flip a coin 100 times each, then we will have an extremely large number of coin flips in which we'll likely see a very close to 50-50 split between heads and tails. Despite the fact that the overall dataset shows 50-50 for heads-tails, my own piece of that overall set may be skewed because it is a much smaller dataset. I may have 80-20 for heads-tails. Another person may have 40-60. Yet another 10-90. Some may have 51-49.

It doesn't mean that the chances of heads vs tails isn't 50-50. It doesn't mean that there is something wrong with the RNG for a coin toss. It is simply how it turned out.

You have a better chance of being struck by lightning than winning the lottery ... it doesn't mean that people that win the lottery were also struck by lightning.

[Loswaith]

@Sebrent You can not be certain that it isn't that way, bugs get into code that developers miss.  Bugs in RNG are some of the hardest to actually find, becuse a slight bug can be seen as RNG working normally when it just isnt.

[Sebrent]

@Loswaith You are correct that, without seeing the actual code, I can't be certain about that.

However, speaking as a developer ... unless they aren't using any of the myriad number of available, vetted libraries for RNG available, have some amateur, hobbyist working on their RNG, and don't have any processes for code design and code review ... sure ... someone could design the RNG to take some attributes of the user and use those for generating the values.

I find that highly unlikely.

[Loswaith]

I doubt anyone is intentionally saying DE skews the results (I certainly don't think so), but plenty of cases give decent evidence for it to be bugged, and the only test DE has shared with us is a 50/50 RNG split.

Yet a bell curve will give a 50/50 split the same as a linear distribution will show a 50/50 split, despite the results actually being more frequent in the central values than the outlying ends where a linear distribution wont have that same factor.

While keep in mind, free to play games make their money by stringing out item acquisition (not saying I think DE would do so intentionally outside of low drop rates).

I'll put this here:

http://dilbert.com/strip/2001-10-25

Edited August 27, 2016 by Loswaith

[(PSN)Del-ProdigyT]

You mean to say quadruple rewards if duplicates weren't possible the coding on the rng of rewards drops would get very fickled and likely negate the reason we group for radiant relics. If two so the same weren't possible yet all radiant how should it process chances as advertised?  The math gets hard and de ends up make the drop chances higher then intended.