I was talking to CoteCote(he wanted to be mentioned in this topic) today who was asking me about riven pricing. He asked me how I priced them and where he could find a tutorial with formulas. I can remember having seen something like that somewhere around here but after finding that topic I saw it was pretty basic without too much information and no formulas.
So after explaining the basics of my formulas, I decided to make a topic about it so people can understand better how to price Rivens.
Riven prices are based on the following:
1. Riven stat composition type
2. Which stats and what value they have
3. Preference and Synergy of Stats
4. Polarity and Rank
5. Rolls
6. The Market
In the first part I will handle the math part of rivens.
Lets look at the type of stat composition rivens can have: 2 Positives, 3 Positives, 2 Positives and 1 Negative, 3 Positives 1 Negative
For this example I use a Shotgun Riven with a neutral disposition, the percentages you see below apply to all different weapons, stats and dispositions.
The minimum and maximum stat (in this example MultiShot) The percentage of stat value compared to the minimum stat value The total minimum and maximum value of the positive stats combined The percentage of the total minimum and maximum value of positive stats combined compared to the lowest value of the total minimum of positive stats combined(the lowest total minimum combined value is always the 2 Positive stats total minimum combined value)
As seen above, the difference in total combined positive stats value between a 2 Positive stat riven and a 3 Positives 1 Negative stat riven is 42% more stat value for 3 Positives and 1 Negative.
The most of stat value can be gotten from a 3 Positives 1 Negative riven (142% - 173.5%), then a 2 Positives 1 Negative riven (124.9% - 152.7%) followed by a 3 Positives riven (113.6% - 138.9%) and lastly a 2 Positives riven (100% - 122.2%).
If chances of getting each stat composition are the same, we can order them and say that a 3 Positives 1 Negative has a 1/4 chance of being rolled, so its 4 times harder to get than any random type. Considering in most cases its better than a 2 Positives 1 Negative variant (there are certain exceptions though and for those this calculation doesn't count), we can say that it has a 2/4 chance of being rolled or getting a better variant (3 Positives 1 Negative).
In this flat calculation we could say a 3 Positives 1 Negative roll is worth double the amount of a 2 Positives 1 Negative roll.
A 3 Positives roll would be 3/4 chance and a 2 Positives would be a 4/4 chance (so the least valuable).
Next I will talk about the chances of getting specific stats on rivens.
In this example I will use a 3 Positive stats riven for Vulkar Wraith.
This is how I see the usefulness of the stats for the Vulkar Wraith and this is subjective, other people might feel different about which stats fits their needs better., but Im trying to use a most general distribution.
These are all the different stats we can roll on a positive value, 24 different stats with:
Top Stats,Good Stats,Ok Stats,(Near) Useless Stats and Bad Stats(stats you want to avoid)
Damage - Multishot - Critical Chance - Critical Damage Electric Damage(most popular out of the elements because you can build both Corrosive and Radiation with it) - Heat Damage - Toxic Damage - Cold Damage - Impact Damage Status Chance - Status Duration - Fire Rate (x2 for Bows) - Magazine Capacity - Damage to Grineer - Damage to Corpus - Damage to Infested - Reload Speed Puncture Damage - Slash Damage - Punch Through - Weapon Recoil - Ammo Maximum - Projectile Flight Speed Zoom
For Top Stats we calculate: Top Stat Possibilities / Total Possibilities (for the first roll 4/24)
For Good Stats: (Top Stats + Good Stats) / Total Possibilities (for the first roll 9/24)
For Ok Stats: (Top Stats + Good Stats + Ok Stats) / Total Possibilities (for the first roll 17/24)
and so on.
For negatives we have:
Top Stats, Negligible Stats, Reasonable Stats, Bad Stats and Breaking Stats(stats that will make your riven near useless)
Zoom Slash Damage - Weapon Recoil - Ammo Maximum - Flight Speed Puncture Damage - Status Chance - Status Duration - Magazine Capacity - Reload Speed Impact Damage - Damage to Grineer - Damage to Corpus - Damage to Infested - Fire Rate (x2 for Bows) - Critical Chance - Critical Damage Damage - Multishot
The same form of calculation applies to Negatives as to Positives, but in ultimate riven calculation it always depends on the person whether they hold the same value for a negative as for a positive stat. Also a Breaking negative can make your whole riven worthless, think of -160% Finisher damage on a dagger, or -200% range on a Scoliac.
If we are looking for a riven with 3 top stats, assuming that every stat has the same amount of chance to be rolled, we will apply this calculation:
For the first stat: 4 Top stats out of 24 possible stats, so 4/24.
For the second stat: 3 Top stats left out of 23 possible stats, so 3/23.
For the third stat: 2 Top stats left out of 22 possible stats, so 2/22.
In this calculation we can see that the chance of getting 3 Top stats is (4/24)*(3/23)*(2/22) = 24/12144 = 1/506 = 0.2%
So getting 3 top stats on average means you need to roll your riven around 500 times to get these stats.
The way I value rivens is to compare this number to a 3 Positive stats riven to a random riven with any (bad) stats meaning (24/24)*(23/23)*(22/22) = 1/1 = 100%
With this I can say that the roll of the 3 Top stats riven is worth 500 times more than the roll of the random 3x Bad stats and 84.3 times more than the same type of riven with 1 Top stat and 2 Bad Stats ((3/23)*(2/22) = 6/506(1/84.3) = 1.19%).
Now what the price is of a roll, is very subjective, it could be anywhere in between 0.1p and 2p. A normal roll on a 10 rolled riven is 3500 Kuva, which is ~6 Kuva Siphons, or ~3 Kuva Floods, or ~1.5 Kuva Floods with a booster etc. I generally think that on average a player wastes about 15 minutes on getting Kuva for one roll, so I would say getting about 1p per roll is a pretty fair payout.
Then there's always a minimum and maximum value for a stat to take into account for calculating riven prices.
In example a 3 Positive stats riven with all 3 positive stats at their maximum value(138.9%), can halve almost the same amount of stat value as a 3 Positive and 1 Negative stat riven with all 3 positive stats at their minimum (142%). In this case if the 3 Positive and 1 Negative stat riven has a Bad Negative stat, the 3 Positive Stats riven might be better, but if i.e. it has a Negative Zoom, then it will be far better for a Vulkar(or any other sniper) since its actually a good stat to have(if you have this preference).
Certain combination of stats might also increase the value or decrease the value of the riven. In example if you have a +Status Chance and +Status Duration on the riven it might increase the value significantly or if you have +Status Duration and -Status Chance, it will in most cases nullify the first positive stat making it less valuable.
Obviously preference is also a really important part of pricing, but usually just applies to the person you are selling to or a small group of people. If you have a weapon which has a potential of having either a Crit build or a Status build, it depends on whether people prefer the one over the other if you can ask more or less for it. It all depends on in which group you put certain Stats (Top,Good,Ok etc.). For this I usually just go with what 90% of the community is looking for or you are going to have a hard time selling a weapon for a specific group of people for the price you want.
Another example of preference is when it comes to melee rivens. For rivens like for the Scoliac, people prefer to get as much Range and Crit on slide as possible. So for these rivens, a 2 Positive + 1 Negative stat is preferable over 3 Positive + 1 Negative, since you will get higher values on those 2 stats.
Riven Polarity matters a bit usually when people still need to roll the rivens, because its better to start off with a riven with a V polarity over a riven with a D polarity. But if someone is selling a perfect riven (3 Top Stats + 1 Top/Good Negative) then that becomes less of an issue in pricing. I personally ask around 20p more for a V polarity over a D polarity on an unrolled riven. I also calculate around 40p more for a maxed out riven because of the endo and credits used in the process.
The amount of rolls can also change the price, but this usually doesn't matter if you don't expect it ever to be rolled again. The first 9 rolls on an unrolled riven will cost you 16450 Kuva, instead of 31500, saving you 15050 Kuva. So lets say you can almost roll 2 unrolled Rivens 9 times for the same price as one Riven with 10 or more rolls on it.
The thing that probably matters most for pricing rivens is the market. Sure you will always be able to find some person looking for a perfect(3 Top Positive + Top Negative Stats) niche riven who is willing to pay 5K platinum for an unpopular weapon, if you look long enough. But in general you will want to lower your price for those weapons a lot.
So usually look at it this way, for 3 Top Positive + 1 Top/Good Negative rivens people are willing to pay around:
Meta weapons: 10-20K (i.e. Opticor, Scoliac, Lenz)
Popular weapons: 5K (i.e. Lanka, Kohm, Sicarus)
Unpopular weapons: 1-3K (i.e. Viper, Karak, Bo)
Are they ever used weapons: ???? (i.e. Convectrix)
these numbers are taken from my experience in what I've seen getting sold here on the forum, in the trade chat and from my own and friends trades. You can alter these numbers to your own likings, but usually when there are only few godlike rivens, the guys with the big wallets are willing to invest massive amounts of platinum to get them.
So from those number I usually calculate downwards, in example a riven worth 5K, where 1 of the Top Positive stats is replaced by a Useless stat, I calculate its worth around 10 times less so around 500p.
or
2 Top stats are replaced by 2 Good stats which means its worth around half for the first stat and about a bit less than half for the second stat, so around 5 times less, making it worth around 1000p.
Obviously these numbers are highly influenced by supply and demand, if many people are offering rivens with the same stats, prices go down, but if no one is selling them, prices go up.
Now people can say that a riven is never worth 10000p, but think about the chance to get a perfect riven, which is about 1/5000, and there is a group of people in this game with a lot of platinum willing to invest that amount for the perfect riven, it might take a while, but never let anyone tell you that your riven isn't worth more than 200p when you have perfect or almost perfect stats, they usually say this because they want to get that riven you have for as cheap as they can get and yes, I've encountered lots of these people and once they know you are not going to sell it at the price they want, they will either insult you or laugh and ignore you. Unfortunately there are many people like that in trade chat.
In the end prices always depend on whatever the buyers want to pay for it, but if you have the patience, chances are high you will be able to sell your riven for the price its worth for the people who are just looking for that riven.
Im sure I still have left some stuff out, I might add or change things later, because typing all of this has already cost me a lot of hours.
I'm also open to corrections and suggestions to better complete this guide.
I hope I can give some newer players(and perhaps some clueless players) a better insight of riven price calculations.
Question
BlackVortex
W.I.P.
I was talking to CoteCote(he wanted to be mentioned in this topic) today who was asking me about riven pricing. He asked me how I priced them and where he could find a tutorial with formulas. I can remember having seen something like that somewhere around here but after finding that topic I saw it was pretty basic without too much information and no formulas.
So after explaining the basics of my formulas, I decided to make a topic about it so people can understand better how to price Rivens.
Riven prices are based on the following:
1. Riven stat composition type
2. Which stats and what value they have
3. Preference and Synergy of Stats
4. Polarity and Rank
5. Rolls
6. The Market
In the first part I will handle the math part of rivens.
Lets look at the type of stat composition rivens can have: 2 Positives, 3 Positives, 2 Positives and 1 Negative, 3 Positives 1 Negative
For this example I use a Shotgun Riven with a neutral disposition, the percentages you see below apply to all different weapons, stats and dispositions.
The minimum and maximum stat (in this example MultiShot)
The percentage of stat value compared to the minimum stat value
The total minimum and maximum value of the positive stats combined
The percentage of the total minimum and maximum value of positive stats combined compared to the lowest value of the total minimum of positive stats combined(the lowest total minimum combined value is always the 2 Positive stats total minimum combined value)
2 Positives : 2x 106.7 - 130.4 = 132.1% - 161.4% = 213.4 - 260.8 = 100% - 122.2%
3 Positives : 3x 80.8 - 98.8 = 100% - 122.2% = 242,4 - 296,4 = 113.6% - 138.9%
2 Positives 1 Negative : 2x 133.3 - 162.9 = 165% - 201.6% = 266,6 - 325,8 = 124.9% - 152.7%
3 Positives 1 Negative : 3x 101.0 - 123.4 = 125% - 152.7% = 303 - 370.2 = 142% - 173.5%
As seen above, the difference in total combined positive stats value between a 2 Positive stat riven and a 3 Positives 1 Negative stat riven is 42% more stat value for 3 Positives and 1 Negative.
The most of stat value can be gotten from a 3 Positives 1 Negative riven (142% - 173.5%), then a 2 Positives 1 Negative riven (124.9% - 152.7%) followed by a 3 Positives riven (113.6% - 138.9%) and lastly a 2 Positives riven (100% - 122.2%).
If chances of getting each stat composition are the same, we can order them and say that a 3 Positives 1 Negative has a 1/4 chance of being rolled, so its 4 times harder to get than any random type. Considering in most cases its better than a 2 Positives 1 Negative variant (there are certain exceptions though and for those this calculation doesn't count), we can say that it has a 2/4 chance of being rolled or getting a better variant (3 Positives 1 Negative).
In this flat calculation we could say a 3 Positives 1 Negative roll is worth double the amount of a 2 Positives 1 Negative roll.
A 3 Positives roll would be 3/4 chance and a 2 Positives would be a 4/4 chance (so the least valuable).
Next I will talk about the chances of getting specific stats on rivens.
In this example I will use a 3 Positive stats riven for Vulkar Wraith.
This is how I see the usefulness of the stats for the Vulkar Wraith and this is subjective, other people might feel different about which stats fits their needs better., but Im trying to use a most general distribution.
These are all the different stats we can roll on a positive value, 24 different stats with:
Top Stats, Good Stats, Ok Stats, (Near) Useless Stats and Bad Stats(stats you want to avoid)
Damage - Multishot - Critical Chance - Critical Damage
Electric Damage(most popular out of the elements because you can build both Corrosive and Radiation with it) - Heat Damage - Toxic Damage - Cold Damage - Impact Damage
Status Chance - Status Duration - Fire Rate (x2 for Bows) - Magazine Capacity - Damage to Grineer - Damage to Corpus - Damage to Infested - Reload Speed
Puncture Damage - Slash Damage - Punch Through - Weapon Recoil - Ammo Maximum - Projectile Flight Speed
Zoom
For Top Stats we calculate: Top Stat Possibilities / Total Possibilities (for the first roll 4/24)
For Good Stats: (Top Stats + Good Stats) / Total Possibilities (for the first roll 9/24)
For Ok Stats: (Top Stats + Good Stats + Ok Stats) / Total Possibilities (for the first roll 17/24)
and so on.
For negatives we have:
Top Stats, Negligible Stats, Reasonable Stats, Bad Stats and Breaking Stats(stats that will make your riven near useless)
Zoom
Slash Damage - Weapon Recoil - Ammo Maximum - Flight Speed
Puncture Damage - Status Chance - Status Duration - Magazine Capacity - Reload Speed
Impact Damage - Damage to Grineer - Damage to Corpus - Damage to Infested - Fire Rate (x2 for Bows) - Critical Chance - Critical Damage
Damage - Multishot
The same form of calculation applies to Negatives as to Positives, but in ultimate riven calculation it always depends on the person whether they hold the same value for a negative as for a positive stat. Also a Breaking negative can make your whole riven worthless, think of -160% Finisher damage on a dagger, or -200% range on a Scoliac.
If we are looking for a riven with 3 top stats, assuming that every stat has the same amount of chance to be rolled, we will apply this calculation:
For the first stat: 4 Top stats out of 24 possible stats, so 4/24.
For the second stat: 3 Top stats left out of 23 possible stats, so 3/23.
For the third stat: 2 Top stats left out of 22 possible stats, so 2/22.
In this calculation we can see that the chance of getting 3 Top stats is (4/24)*(3/23)*(2/22) = 24/12144 = 1/506 = 0.2%
So getting 3 top stats on average means you need to roll your riven around 500 times to get these stats.
The way I value rivens is to compare this number to a 3 Positive stats riven to a random riven with any (bad) stats meaning (24/24)*(23/23)*(22/22) = 1/1 = 100%
With this I can say that the roll of the 3 Top stats riven is worth 500 times more than the roll of the random 3x Bad stats and 84.3 times more than the same type of riven with 1 Top stat and 2 Bad Stats ((3/23)*(2/22) = 6/506(1/84.3) = 1.19%).
Now what the price is of a roll, is very subjective, it could be anywhere in between 0.1p and 2p. A normal roll on a 10 rolled riven is 3500 Kuva, which is ~6 Kuva Siphons, or ~3 Kuva Floods, or ~1.5 Kuva Floods with a booster etc. I generally think that on average a player wastes about 15 minutes on getting Kuva for one roll, so I would say getting about 1p per roll is a pretty fair payout.
Then there's always a minimum and maximum value for a stat to take into account for calculating riven prices.
In example a 3 Positive stats riven with all 3 positive stats at their maximum value(138.9%), can halve almost the same amount of stat value as a 3 Positive and 1 Negative stat riven with all 3 positive stats at their minimum (142%). In this case if the 3 Positive and 1 Negative stat riven has a Bad Negative stat, the 3 Positive Stats riven might be better, but if i.e. it has a Negative Zoom, then it will be far better for a Vulkar(or any other sniper) since its actually a good stat to have(if you have this preference).
Certain combination of stats might also increase the value or decrease the value of the riven. In example if you have a +Status Chance and +Status Duration on the riven it might increase the value significantly or if you have +Status Duration and -Status Chance, it will in most cases nullify the first positive stat making it less valuable.
Obviously preference is also a really important part of pricing, but usually just applies to the person you are selling to or a small group of people. If you have a weapon which has a potential of having either a Crit build or a Status build, it depends on whether people prefer the one over the other if you can ask more or less for it. It all depends on in which group you put certain Stats (Top,Good,Ok etc.). For this I usually just go with what 90% of the community is looking for or you are going to have a hard time selling a weapon for a specific group of people for the price you want.
Another example of preference is when it comes to melee rivens. For rivens like for the Scoliac, people prefer to get as much Range and Crit on slide as possible. So for these rivens, a 2 Positive + 1 Negative stat is preferable over 3 Positive + 1 Negative, since you will get higher values on those 2 stats.
Riven Polarity matters a bit usually when people still need to roll the rivens, because its better to start off with a riven with a V polarity over a riven with a D polarity. But if someone is selling a perfect riven (3 Top Stats + 1 Top/Good Negative) then that becomes less of an issue in pricing. I personally ask around 20p more for a V polarity over a D polarity on an unrolled riven. I also calculate around 40p more for a maxed out riven because of the endo and credits used in the process.
The amount of rolls can also change the price, but this usually doesn't matter if you don't expect it ever to be rolled again. The first 9 rolls on an unrolled riven will cost you 16450 Kuva, instead of 31500, saving you 15050 Kuva. So lets say you can almost roll 2 unrolled Rivens 9 times for the same price as one Riven with 10 or more rolls on it.
The thing that probably matters most for pricing rivens is the market. Sure you will always be able to find some person looking for a perfect(3 Top Positive + Top Negative Stats) niche riven who is willing to pay 5K platinum for an unpopular weapon, if you look long enough. But in general you will want to lower your price for those weapons a lot.
So usually look at it this way, for 3 Top Positive + 1 Top/Good Negative rivens people are willing to pay around:
Meta weapons: 10-20K (i.e. Opticor, Scoliac, Lenz)
Popular weapons: 5K (i.e. Lanka, Kohm, Sicarus)
Unpopular weapons: 1-3K (i.e. Viper, Karak, Bo)
Are they ever used weapons: ???? (i.e. Convectrix)
these numbers are taken from my experience in what I've seen getting sold here on the forum, in the trade chat and from my own and friends trades. You can alter these numbers to your own likings, but usually when there are only few godlike rivens, the guys with the big wallets are willing to invest massive amounts of platinum to get them.
So from those number I usually calculate downwards, in example a riven worth 5K, where 1 of the Top Positive stats is replaced by a Useless stat, I calculate its worth around 10 times less so around 500p.
or
2 Top stats are replaced by 2 Good stats which means its worth around half for the first stat and about a bit less than half for the second stat, so around 5 times less, making it worth around 1000p.
Obviously these numbers are highly influenced by supply and demand, if many people are offering rivens with the same stats, prices go down, but if no one is selling them, prices go up.
Now people can say that a riven is never worth 10000p, but think about the chance to get a perfect riven, which is about 1/5000, and there is a group of people in this game with a lot of platinum willing to invest that amount for the perfect riven, it might take a while, but never let anyone tell you that your riven isn't worth more than 200p when you have perfect or almost perfect stats, they usually say this because they want to get that riven you have for as cheap as they can get and yes, I've encountered lots of these people and once they know you are not going to sell it at the price they want, they will either insult you or laugh and ignore you. Unfortunately there are many people like that in trade chat.
In the end prices always depend on whatever the buyers want to pay for it, but if you have the patience, chances are high you will be able to sell your riven for the price its worth for the people who are just looking for that riven.
Im sure I still have left some stuff out, I might add or change things later, because typing all of this has already cost me a lot of hours.
I'm also open to corrections and suggestions to better complete this guide.
I hope I can give some newer players(and perhaps some clueless players) a better insight of riven price calculations.
Edited by BlackVortexLink to comment
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