Riven drop chance

[Iron-Phoenix]

Okay, so i've been playing warframe for nearly 850 days. That is not the topic for today, i am going to touch on rivens and their drop chance. I am currently sitting at a month (or so) of days worth of sorties with no riven dropped. That is nearly 30 drops and by the drop chance of the rivens i should have gotten at least 7, and i'm sitting at 0. I understand that rivens are meant to be rare but this is frustrating and it is really impacting my ability to have fun with the game. I would wish to have a way to consistently get rivens rather than rng.

[hellodownthere]

it can happen RNG is not kind to you sir; May RNGesus watch over you.

[Rinaldos]

It's not RNG, it's fake chances being displayed. Riven Mod is a bronze reward with a displayed chance of drop = 25.9% (according to wiki). With many many completed Sorties no matter how wonderful RNG is, the real chance should go towards displayed chance. But it's simply not true.

I suggest devs to recheck their code, because they already had a RNG mistake earlier (Arcane Modifiers drop chances).

Edited April 30, 2018 by Rinaldos

[(XBOX)R3d P01nt]

On 2018-04-30 at 1:00 PM, Rinaldos said:

It's not RNG, it's fake chances being displayed. Riven Mod is a bronze reward with a displayed chance of drop = 25.9% (according to wiki). With many many completed Sorties no matter how wonderful RNG is, the real chance should go towards displayed chance. But it's simply not true.

It is true though.  I suggest you actually start tracking your rewards.  Here's my list of rewards from the last 251 sorties that I've done and the percentage of drops:

Attempts	251
Anasa	71	0.282869
4000 Endo	29	0.115538
Lens	8	0.031873
Greater Lens	7	0.027888
6000 Kuva	13	0.051793
Rifle Riven	13	0.051793
Pistol Riven	17	0.067729
Melee Riven	36	0.143426
Shotgun Riven	1	0.003984
Forma	9	0.035857
Exilus Adapter	9	0.035857
Orokin Reactor BP	9	0.035857
Orokin Catalyst BP	4	0.015936
Affinity Booster	7	0.027888
Credit Booster	8	0.031873
Drop Chance Booster	9	0.035857
Legendary Core	1	0.003984

The formatting is a little off, since it's a copy pasta from Excel, but the first column of numbers is the number of drops I've gotten for that reward and the second is the percentage of the overall.  If you add up the rivens, it is just shy of 27%.

On 2018-04-29 at 3:57 PM, Iron-Phoenix said:

That is nearly 30 drops and by the drop chance of the rivens i should have gotten at least 7, and i'm sitting at 0.

That's not how RNG or percentage chances work.  You have to have a much larger sample size, and you should really be tracking your drops.

[sixmille]

I've seen people greatly exaggerating the alleged lack of riven drops but one month is clearly unbelievable. When you want to make a point, please don't do that. I for one would enjoy having LESS rivens. Namely less melee rivens. They're like melee weapons in this game, there are too many and most of them are uninteresting. My riven inventory has late stage cancer, too many metastasis melee rivens and most of them can't realistically be sold until they get a prime version, which isn't going to happen anytime soon.

If DE could also give us a break with new melee weapons and work on something else too at times it would be greatly appreciated.

Edited May 3, 2018 by sixmille

[Iron-Phoenix]

On 2018-05-02 at 8:58 PM, (XB1)R3d P01nt said:

It is true though.  I suggest you actually start tracking your rewards.  Here's my list of rewards from the last 251 sorties that I've done and the percentage of drops:

Attempts	251
Anasa	71	0.282869
4000 Endo	29	0.115538
Lens	8	0.031873
Greater Lens	7	0.027888
6000 Kuva	13	0.051793
Rifle Riven	13	0.051793
Pistol Riven	17	0.067729
Melee Riven	36	0.143426
Shotgun Riven	1	0.003984
Forma	9	0.035857
Exilus Adapter	9	0.035857
Orokin Reactor BP	9	0.035857
Orokin Catalyst BP	4	0.015936
Affinity Booster	7	0.027888
Credit Booster	8	0.031873
Drop Chance Booster	9	0.035857
Legendary Core	1	0.003984

The formatting is a little off, since it's a copy pasta from Excel, but the first column of numbers is the number of drops I've gotten for that reward and the second is the percentage of the overall.  If you add up the rivens, it is just shy of 27%.

That's not how RNG or percentage chances work.  You have to have a much larger sample size, and you should really be tracking your drops.

I did track them:

32 Sorties

Reward    / Drops / Chance
Anasa     / 12
Kuva      / 5
Catalyst  / 2
Endo      / 7
Affinity  / 2
Res Chance/ 1
Res Boost / 0
Cred Boost/ 1
Rifl Riven/ 0
Pist Riven/ 0
SG   Riven/ 0
Mlee Riven/ 0
Exilus    / 2
Leg Core  / 0

[(XBOX)R3d P01nt]

4 hours ago, Iron-Phoenix said:

I did track them:

32 Sorties

Reward    / Drops / Chance
Anasa     / 12
Kuva      / 5
Catalyst  / 2
Endo      / 7
Affinity  / 2
Res Chance/ 1
Res Boost / 0
Cred Boost/ 1
Rifl Riven/ 0
Pist Riven/ 0
SG   Riven/ 0
Mlee Riven/ 0
Exilus    / 2
Leg Core  / 0

32 is a small sample size.  You'll have to keep track for a much larger period.  My sample size is 250 or so, which is just starting to really be significant.

[Dueliest]

I too have had similar experiences. Displayed chances don't seem to reflect experience. If I didn't know any better I would say the roll system has a % chance of being a specific rarity then rolls them in the order they are listed, the first one drops, is the one you get! which means all the % chance in the world wont matter when it is a weighted probability.

[DreisterDino]

I feel you, a few weeks ago Sortie felt like "Maros Daily Anasa Hunt" for me 😉

in 20+ runs i got only that and 1 time one of the boosters. I know its frustating (especially when you are in an alliance where people start to post the great rivens they got from the sortie that day 😄 ) but R3d PO1nt make a valid point here, the bigger the sample size, the more likely your rewards will match with the percentages. Ofc some people will always be more lucky, but that will always be the case on something random. For example i put alot of time into riven-rolling, i did not get 3 good stats on a riven just once (didnt even wish for a negative to be on it) and then i see people that roll great rivens like this in 3 rolls over and over again 😄

[(XBOX)Artakka]

On 2018-05-04 at 12:29 AM, Iron-Phoenix said:

I did track them:

32 Sorties

Reward    / Drops / Chance
Anasa     / 12
Kuva      / 5
Catalyst  / 2
Endo      / 7
Affinity  / 2
Res Chance/ 1
Res Boost / 0
Cred Boost/ 1
Rifl Riven/ 0
Pist Riven/ 0
SG   Riven/ 0
Mlee Riven/ 0
Exilus    / 2
Leg Core  / 0

 

On 2018-05-04 at 4:50 AM, (XB1)R3d P01nt said:

32 is a small sample size.  You'll have to keep track for a much larger period.  My sample size is 250 or so, which is just starting to really be significant.

Yeah lol you're gonna have to do a little more than 30. 250 even still Is not enough of you want an absolute measure of said drop chances (although it's definitely not far off from accurate). I would say maybe 300 perhaps 350 for a complete result, but who has time for that.