Why Warframe is declining, and people quit for boredom.

[Joezone619]

IMO too much soulframe testing. We're here for WARframe.

[Silligoose]

34 minutes ago, -Krism- said:

If you're asking this question, it means you haven't really been watching what's going on here

I have been watching.

I watched numerous people look at data showing a decline in avg concurrent players on Steam for the last 5 years or so and showing an overall decline in avg peak concurrent numbers per month. I see players looking at this data which shows, in 2022, Warframe hit a 5-year low in the avg monthly concurrent number of players as a well as 5-year low in the peak concurrent numbers yet despite all this, they want to perpetuate this incorrect notion that the game isn't in decline, looking to high-five one another as they back their own bias instead of the actual data. 

I know I tend to expect too much from people, but I honestly thought people would be able to look at a graph and spot the trend. I thought they'd be able to look at the data and see the numbers are showing a decline. I suppose the fluctuating nature of player numbers, the two spikes in peak concurrent players from 2020 and 2021 respectively and bias just makes it a little too hard to view the data objectively. I actually had a little hope as players identified this game is seasonal - there are inter-year trends based on content releases afterall, amongst other things, and that these people would be able to notice that, hey, the seasonal content has not been doing so great in a relative sense either. Even the spikes in concurrent numbers 2020 and 2021 was so poor in retention the overall avg concurrent numbers were down. Releases after those two didn't manage to pique the interest of players to the same degree again. The game hit its peak in late 2018 and has been in a decline ever since. It is a slow decline, but it is there.

Now, we can say that since the 5-year lows in 2022, Warframe has had a bit of a resurgence in players numbers. 2023 has been looking better, at least if looked at superficially, but then we do have to account for the numbers again approaching numbers similar to that of last year around this time. We do have to account for the seasonal nature of the game's releases. We do have to account for the fact that this year's peak is as a result of content that was initially teased 4 years ago, started development even before that, yet still failed to breach peaks achieved from 2021 and prior.

This isn't a "ded game is ded" post, because I don't think it is, but it is declining. Whether or not that is a bad thing for DE, their bottom line, their ROI, that we don't know. Maybe lower player numbers and lower quality content. with more reused assets is the formula to success.

While it isn't a surprise to see fanboyism on display in these forums and see some people be wilfully blind to facts, it is a little sad to see to what degree it extended in this thread.

[PublikDomain]

8 hours ago, SneakyErvin said:

How it is different? We are talking "platforms" here as in inter-PC launcher options, not platforms overall which includes consoles.

These days, is there really a meaningful difference? It's like saying there's some huge difference between people who use Intel vs AMD chips. Why would there be? Launcher preference is as irrelevant as mouse/gamepad preference. The button you click or machine you boot up to play the game doesn't matter when it's the same game and the same content played together by the same people.

8 hours ago, SneakyErvin said:

And regarding Tennogen, you arent locked to Steam by purchasing tennogen.

You aren't locked to owning it, but if you want to view or purchase TennoGen you have to use Steam - or a non-PC platform. You cannot view or purchase TennoGen on EGS. There's no reason to use a less-featured PC platform and thus the number of people using the other PC launchers is "likely very small" just like you say it is for Destiny. There's simply no reason to use the standalone launcher, much less EGS, when Steam offers the same things and more and when all of them can be run from literally the same installation.

8 hours ago, SneakyErvin said:

It would likely have even more negative effect on WF since it would suddenly turn a F2P game into B2P after 10+ years.

And you know this would be negative because...? If you're not allowing yourself to compare games, how can you prove that it would be bad? Maybe it would be great? DE would make so much more money if you had to pay to play. Or we could compare games even if they're a little bit different because that's a normal and perfectly valid thing to do and see that nah, it probably wouldn't be good.

3 hours ago, Silligoose said:

I have been watching.

I watched numerous people look at data showing a decline in avg concurrent players on Steam for the last 5 years or so and showing an overall decline in avg peak concurrent numbers per month. I see players looking at this data which shows, in 2022, Warframe hit a 5-year low in the avg monthly concurrent number of players as a well as 5-year low in the peak concurrent numbers yet despite all this, they want to perpetuate this incorrect notion that the game isn't in decline, looking to high-five one another as they back their own bias instead of the actual data.

Related, since Steamcharts doesn't show average CCU on the graph, only peak CCU (which is not a very useful stat):

The trendline since 2018 has been negative. IE a decline. On Steam, the only platform that has statistics that can be referenced, Warframe is declining (slowly) and has been for several years. It's a factual statement.

Now maybe other platforms and launchers have giga-chad users that never quit or get bored who are driving an unprecedented CCU boon that renders Steam's numbers obsolete and unusable.... A claim not only unproven, but one that cannot be proven because no available data exists to back it up... Or maybe the grass looks about the the same on both sides of the fence. 🤷‍♀️

Edited July 17, 2023 by PublikDomain

[(PSN)GEN-Son_17]

4 hours ago, Silligoose said:

I have been watching.

I watched numerous people look at data showing a decline in avg concurrent players on Steam for the last 5 years or so and showing an overall decline in avg peak concurrent numbers per month. I see players looking at this data which shows, in 2022, Warframe hit a 5-year low in the avg monthly concurrent number of players as a well as 5-year low in the peak concurrent numbers yet despite all this, they want to perpetuate this incorrect notion that the game isn't in decline, looking to high-five one another as they back their own bias instead of the actual data. 

I know I tend to expect too much from people, but I honestly thought people would be able to look at a graph and spot the trend. I thought they'd be able to look at the data and see the numbers are showing a decline. I suppose the fluctuating nature of player numbers, the two spikes in peak concurrent players from 2020 and 2021 respectively and bias just makes it a little too hard to view the data objectively. I actually had a little hope as players identified this game is seasonal - there are inter-year trends based on content releases afterall, amongst other things, and that these people would be able to notice that, hey, the seasonal content has not been doing so great in a relative sense either. Even the spikes in concurrent numbers 2020 and 2021 was so poor in retention the overall avg concurrent numbers were down. Releases after those two didn't manage to pique the interest of players to the same degree again. The game hit its peak in late 2018 and has been in a decline ever since. It is a slow decline, but it is there.

Now, we can say that since the 5-year lows in 2022, Warframe has had a bit of a resurgence in players numbers. 2023 has been looking better, at least if looked at superficially, but then we do have to account for the numbers again approaching numbers similar to that of last year around this time. We do have to account for the seasonal nature of the game's releases. We do have to account for the fact that this year's peak is as a result of content that was initially teased 4 years ago, started development even before that, yet still failed to breach peaks achieved from 2021 and prior.

This isn't a "ded game is ded" post, because I don't think it is, but it is declining. Whether or not that is a bad thing for DE, their bottom line, their ROI, that we don't know. Maybe lower player numbers and lower quality content. with more reused assets is the formula to success.

While it isn't a surprise to see fanboyism on display in these forums and see some people be wilfully blind to facts, it is a little sad to see to what degree it extended in this thread.

One note about the chart that others keep explaining is that the introduction of new gen game consoles, and the Switch, has a major influence over using Steam and an aging computer, for example. That chart is for one "console" of about seven...1/7th of the game's areas of population. In fact, four new systems were made available within that 5 year span...of which 3 are on par with newer PCs using Steam : PS5, XBox Series X, and Epic on PC. It's not too hard to lean towards the determination that those impacted Steam, once one of three options to now one of seven. 

Ultimately, there's a difference between fanboying, white knighting and all of those defender terms, and simply telling people the truth about things. The Steam argument was a weak one from jump, yet it's defended (fanboyed) as if there would be some sort of change if it were true. 

[PublikDomain]

24 minutes ago, (PSN)GEN-Son_17 said:

One note about the chart that others keep explaining is that the introduction of new gen game consoles, and the Switch, has a major influence over using Steam and an aging computer, for example.

🤦‍♀️

Ok, so when you chart that:

So either PS and Xbox being added have both increased the Steam population in 2013-2014 and again with the addition of EGS at the end of 2020, and NSW specifically has been the platform slowly sucking players away from Steam (even though account transfers ended only a few months after)... or there's not actually this supposed mass exodus causing Steam's numbers, and Steam's numbers only, to drain.

Edit: And did we even have PC → PS5/XSX account transfers?

24 minutes ago, (PSN)GEN-Son_17 said:

That chart is for one "console" of about seven...1/7th of the game's areas of population.

Which is why we have this handy dandy field of mathematics called "statistics".

Edited July 17, 2023 by PublikDomain

[Letter13]

Y'know, Doom & Gloom threads don't really make for good discussion. Just turns into a shouting match between the 'But Warframe is Dying!' and the 'Here are some charts showing why that's not true' camps. So I'm gonna lock the thread.

 

If you genuinely believe the game is dying, and no amount of statistics/charts will sway your firm convictions for what in your mind must surely be the truth... perhaps you should create a feedback thread in the appropriate feedback subforum detailing ways you think the game could be improved? That is, a feedback thread where the main 'clicking point' isn't 'The game is dying!' (because that would be clickbait and not constructive), but a quick, one phrase summary of the change(s) you think would, in your opinion, keep the game from dying.

 

 

Oh, also, the game isn't dying.