Corrupted Holokey need a drop rate increase.

[Lancars]

You already have a time gate on Ergo's stock. I don't wanna run 10 missions and get no keys (which has happened)

[Cerikus]

6 minutes ago, Lancars said:

You already have a time gate on Ergo's stock. I don't wanna run 10 missions and get no keys (which has happened)

While what you say it's possible, with such a high drop rate (37.5%) it's very unlikely. Are you sure you are running voidstorm missions?

[Lancars]

10 minutes ago, Cerikus said:

While what you say it's possible, with such a high drop rate (37.5%) it's very unlikely. Are you sure you are running voidstorm missions?

Yes i am doing the veil one so i can get 10. I been running that mission many times and i get it some times but it doesn't feel like 37%. RNG is most games is a lie. I've had one game where i had 90 to 95% success rate and i failed it more times then i succeeded. I don't trust any games % numbers as they can easily lie or make a mistake in the code somewhere and break it.

[quxier]

34 minutes ago, Cerikus said:

42 minutes ago, Lancars said:

You already have a time gate on Ergo's stock. I don't wanna run 10 missions and get no keys (which has happened)

While what you say it's possible, with such a high drop rate (37.5%) it's very unlikely. Are you sure you are running voidstorm missions?

37.5% doesn't mean that you will get it every ~3rd mission. No. It means, more or less, that 37.5% of drops would be THE DROP. It can be in first 38 mission from 100 or from 400+ doing 1000.

I've seen many claims that people have low drop of Holokeys. So I guess there is some issue.

[Lancars]

5 minutes ago, quxier said:

37.5% doesn't mean that you will get it every ~3rd mission. No. It means, more or less, that 37.5% of drops would be THE DROP. It can be in first 38 mission from 100 or from 400+ doing 1000.

I've seen many claims that people have low drop of Holokeys. So I guess there is some issue.

Yea cause its not a ramp up each time. You can go many missions and not get a drop or you can get lucky and get many. Its random that can be good or completely waste your time.

[Cerikus]

17 minutes ago, quxier said:

37.5% doesn't mean that you will get it every ~3rd mission. No. It means, more or less, that 37.5% of drops would be THE DROP. It can be in first 38 mission from 100 or from 400+ doing 1000.

With a chance of 37.5% and 10 attempts there is 99.0905% chance OP already got the drop at least once.
With 38 attempts it would be 99.9999982%
With 100 attempts it would be 99.9999999%

As I said, it's possible that OP is the unluckiest player out there, but it's quite improbable. All I wanted was to clear up a possible misunderstanding, because I've already ran into players that didn't realize they need to do void storm.

[quxier]

3 minutes ago, Cerikus said:

26 minutes ago, quxier said:

37.5% doesn't mean that you will get it every ~3rd mission. No. It means, more or less, that 37.5% of drops would be THE DROP. It can be in first 38 mission from 100 or from 400+ doing 1000.

With a chance of 37.5% and 10 attempts there is 99.0905% chance OP already got the drop at least once.
With 38 attempts it would be 99.9999982%
With 100 attempts it would be 99.9999999%

And again, it's chance not 100% certain that you get it. It's like you have N balls colored red & blue. There is 37.5% red balls. You pick 1 ball and put it back. Everytime the chance is still 37.5% to pick red ball.

And you are assuming that system is not bugged. I've been doing Zariman bounties for 2 weeks, hours daily, without single drop. I heard that servers can get bugged so it gives you same/similar drop (hence no drop you want).

10 minutes ago, Cerikus said:

As I said, it's possible that OP is the unluckiest player out there, but it's quite improbable. All I wanted was to clear up a possible misunderstanding, because I've already ran into players that didn't realize they need to do void storm.

Sure, make sense.

[Cerikus]

8 minutes ago, quxier said:

And again, it's chance not 100% certain that you get it. It's like you have N balls colored red & blue. There is 37.5% red balls. You pick 1 ball and put it back. Everytime the chance is still 37.5% to pick red ball.

According to quantum mechanics there is non-zero probabilty that if you run into a wall all your atoms will quantum tunnel past all the atoms of the wall and you will get through unharmed. The probability of that not happening is not 100%, there is a very small chance. Go try it.

The probability math is very exact and undisputable. Here. I've run a simulation:

As you can see your scenario is represented. There was one case, when it took 30 runs, but vast majority of players would get it in 1.53 runs. If you are really unlucky 4.92 runs, if you are the unluckiest 9.84 runs. So my points still stands, if OP did 10 runs and didn't get the drop, they are very very unlucky, hence I surmised there may be some other reason for not getting the drop.

[quxier]

4 minutes ago, Cerikus said:

24 minutes ago, quxier said:

And again, it's chance not 100% certain that you get it. It's like you have N balls colored red & blue. There is 37.5% red balls. You pick 1 ball and put it back. Everytime the chance is still 37.5% to pick red ball.

According to quantum mechanics there is non-zero probabilty that if you run into a wall all your atoms will quantum tunnel past all the atoms of the wall and you will get through unharmed. The probability of that not happening is not 100%, there is a very small chance. Go try it.

Quote

“The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy says that if you hold a lungful of air you can survive in the total vacuum of space for about thirty seconds. However, it does go on to say that what with space being the mindboggling size it is the chances of getting picked up by another ship within those thirty seconds are two to the power of two hundred and seventy-six thousand seven hundred and nine to one against.”
― Douglas Adams, The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy

 

25 minutes ago, Cerikus said:

As you can see your scenario is represented. There was one case, when it took 30 runs, but vast majority of players would get it in 1.53 runs. If you are really unlucky 4.92 runs, if you are the unluckiest 9.84 runs. So my points still stands, if OP did 10 runs and didn't get the drop, they are very very unlucky, hence I surmised there may be some other reason for not getting the drop.

So 90% people get drops within 4.92 runs (~5). Say, 10 000 users playing it, that means 1000 people would get it within 5 runs. 100 people would get it in 10 runs.

And you are assuming that PRNG is the same and there are not bugs. That's wrong. Math alone won't says if OP is unlucky or not.

[Cerikus]

27 minutes ago, quxier said:

And you are assuming that PRNG is the same and there are not bugs. That's wrong. Math alone won't says if OP is unlucky or not.

1) People keep using "pseudo RNG" but don't really understand what it is and why devs use it.

When you use pseudo RNG, the results appear random, but when you analyze the results you find out they are distributed equally among all possible values, which is something you actally need in a video game, because true RNG can do trully random stuff and the values can be unevenly distributed. When you have droptables, you NEED the results to be equalized. If you have 50% to drop, you need 50% of people to get it and you can reliably achieve that with pseudo RNG, but not with true RNG.

2) Bugs. If there are bugs, they are with the droptables. And since most people have no problems, the reason for OPs lack of holokeys is either bad luck or mistunderstanding the system.

Edited December 16, 2023 by Cerikus

[quxier]

29 minutes ago, Cerikus said:

56 minutes ago, quxier said:

And you are assuming that PRNG is the same and there are not bugs. That's wrong. Math alone won't says if OP is unlucky or not.

1) People keep using "pseudo RNG" but don't really understand what it is and why devs use it.

When you use pseudo RNG, the results appear random, but when you analyze the results you find out they are distributed equally among all possible values, which is something you actally need in a video game, because true RNG can do trully random stuff and the values can be unevenly distributed. When you have droptables, you NEED the results to be equalized.

And yet you don't understand it.

Randomness means unpredictability. That means that if you pick 1, 100 or even thousands of numbers you won't know what next number is. Pseudo RNG tries to achieve randomness because it's much easier (hence it takes much less time to perform, so it costs less money) using computers using some formulas. There has been developed many formulas. They all different characteristic (e.g. faster to compute, less memory etc).

1 hour ago, Cerikus said:

If you have 50% to drop, you need 50% of people to get it and you can reliably achieve that with pseudo RNG, but not with true RNG.

Sure, you cannot achieve any form of X% with true RNG, because it's about randomness.

However achieving X% reliably with PRNG WITHOUT any additions is not possible (or it's just... random). Here is 10 numbers, 1-100:

Quote

Random Integer Generator

Here are your random numbers:

35	72	91	70	80
16	46	91	96	67

Timestamp: 2023-12-16 15:32:21 UTC

There are 7 numbers above 50.

Of course you can get close to X% but you need to run it more times.

 

Devs try to achieve some "close enough" number of drops but they don't care about exact numbers. To achieve what you are talking about you need more than simple PRNG. They are doing something like this with Archons with increasing drop chance (you are guaranteed to get 1 Tau every 5 or 6 runs).

1 hour ago, Cerikus said:

2) Bugs. If there are bugs, they are with the droptables.

Yes, because machines are perfect... /sarcasm

1 hour ago, Cerikus said:

And since most people have no problems, the reason for OPs lack of holokeys is either bad luck or mistunderstanding the system.

Lots of people don't even complain. There are 20+ pages in HOlokeys workshop. I think there were more in some other topic.

[Cerikus]

1 hour ago, quxier said:

-

This conversation is a waste of time. Doesn't matter what you say, because at the end of the day my math is correct and PRNG is a reliable industry standard that provides exactly what software developers need. If OP did 10 runs there is 99.0905% chance they got their holokeys. Period. You can say what you want, but it won't change anything.

You are playing semantics and are trying to explain basic principles of software engineering to someone with a degree in the field.

Have a nice day. Don't respond.

[(PSN)iuvenilis]

7 hours ago, Cerikus said:

As I said, it's possible that OP is the unluckiest player out there, but it's quite improbable.

Given the size of the playerbase, that still leaves a lot of tennon in that "improbable" zone, unfortunately. That could still mean several thousand players in this horrible situation. 

The lower the drop %, the worse the variance e.g. the easier it is to get a bad run. It basically guarantees a bad experience for some players.

7 hours ago, Cerikus said:

10 attempts there is 99.0905% chance OP already got the drop at least once.

So while it's true that, in theory, they had a 99% chance to get at least one corrupted holokey drop, that's not really applicable at the individual player level. Using cumulative distributions has its uses (e.g. it can help understand the underlying distribution), but in this case, all it tells us is that Op was unlucky.

If you look across the entire playerbase, the distribution would look similar to the drop tables, however at an individual player level, it often won't.

I really wish DE would acknowledge the huge variance amongst the player's experience and how this impacts overall enjoyment. (Pity system for the archon shard missions, when...)

[Cerikus]

All you say is true, except for this:

26 minutes ago, (PSN)iuvenilis said:

If you look across the entire playerbase, the distribution would look similar to the drop tables, however at an individual player level, it often won't.

If the entire playerbase approx. matches the expected distribution then you as an individual have to be a part of that distribution, i. e. you are a representation of the table I posted above. That means that you either have the drop after you do 2 runs. or you are part of 90% of people that have it after 5 runs, or you are part of 99% of people have it after 10.

As you say there will be people with bad luck that need more. Which is what I said in the first response, that either OP is the unluckiest, or there may be an error on their side. That's all I said. I just wanted to check, if OP didn't make a mistake, because I've seen plenty of players make that mistake.

26 minutes ago, (PSN)iuvenilis said:

(Pity system for the archon shard missions, when...)

That's already in the game and has been for a long time.

26 minutes ago, (PSN)iuvenilis said:

I really wish DE would acknowledge the huge variance amongst the player's experience and how this impacts overall enjoyment.

They did and they do. Where it matters they make huge improvements to grinds. My honest opinion is that important stuff needs pity systems, but more niche farms shouldn't. That's why most new Warframes since the new team took over have pity systems or are direct grinds.
Styanax - you buy the bps directly.
Voruna - if you don't get the drop, you can buy it directly from Yonta.
Citrine - same as Voruna.
Kullervo - you farm resource and buy it directly.
Dagath - same.
Qorvex - if he doesn't drop, his bps are at Bird 3.
Archon shards have pity system.
Duviri experience has no RNG for loot. You always get the same amount of pathos clamps and you decide what to do with them.
Circuit has RNG for available gear, but you yourself pick which incarnons/rivens you want to farm for.
Zariman grind is perfect and all resources you need to rank up can be directly found in mission.
Same goes for Cavia (so far..)

I think DE did great strides in diminishing the variance among players. It still can be better in certain places, sure, but I wouldn't say they don't acknowledge it.

Edited December 16, 2023 by Cerikus

[(PSN)iuvenilis]

3 hours ago, Cerikus said:

That's already in the game and has been for a long time.

The brand new mission, not the old ones.

3 hours ago, Cerikus said:

They did and they do.

If that were true, they would've learnt their lesson by now, and we wouldn't have a new archon shard missions which is both timegated and RNG. But yes, I do of course concede they do respond when RNG is blatantly horrid. Just be nice if they recognise the player impacts so we don't have to revolt to make change happen.

 

I can pretty much guarantee, there's thousands of players who's loot does not reflect the drop tables. That's how variance works. Only once you get into very large number of trials will your loot look closer to the drop tables.

3 hours ago, Cerikus said:

or you are part of 99% of people have it after 10.

(I think you mean part of the <1% that have to farm it 10 times for 1 drop)

The problem is that, everyone will find themselves in this situation (if you play long enough). So no matter what we're looking, whether it be corrupted holokeys, archon shards (which are already timegated), or relics, everyone will have a bad run of luck. Unfortunately, some people are extra unlucky and cop it more often. That's just how RNG works.

They've definitely made some improvements, but it always feels like DE take a long time to learn from their mistakes (and often repeat their mistakes several times). 

For stuff that can be traded, there already exists that sort of "pity system". But for everything else, they could make some improvements there. If we take the new archon shard missions as an example (I don't know the drop rates so I'm taking a guess here), if the intention is to have "on average" 2 extra shards per week, they could've just added stock as a guaranteed reward and added those two shards to chippers store. That way no one ever has to deal with sh*try luck, so now we don't have to feel like crap just cause RNG didn't bless us. The "good feeling" of (ocassionally) getting 3 shards from the new mission doesn't offset the sh*t feeling of getting none imho.

And so I extend that concept to corrupted holokeys. If the intention is, on average, to get 10 holokeys every 3-4 missions, just give 2-3 guaranteed every mission. Cuts down on all the BS. (Or make the ergo glast weapons tradeable)

Edited December 16, 2023 by (PSN)iuvenilis

[quxier]

13 hours ago, Cerikus said:

Zariman grind is perfect and all resources you need to rank up can be directly found in mission.

Meanwhile I have been farming for 2 weeks without single Gyre part in bounties since release:

To be more serious, except for Gyre, few untreadable (part) weapon(s) it's in the shop.

13 hours ago, Cerikus said:

13 hours ago, (PSN)iuvenilis said:

I really wish DE would acknowledge the huge variance amongst the player's experience and how this impacts overall enjoyment.

They did and they do. Where it matters they make huge improvements to grinds. My honest opinion is that important stuff needs pity systems, but more niche farms shouldn't. That's why most new Warframes since the new team took over have pity systems or are direct grinds.

You should be able to farm all things in reasonable time, at your own convenience (e.g. no hard time gates like 1 per week) OR it should be buyable/tradeable. I would say lots of things should be buyable/tradeable. If Tenet melees (+1 teneet gun) were buyable whole issue and posts that people post from time to time wouldn't occur (at least not very often).

13 hours ago, Cerikus said:

 

I think DE did great strides in diminishing the variance among players. It still can be better in certain places, sure, but I wouldn't say they don't acknowledge it.

Yeah, some recent(ish) grinds has this stuffs. Still wish they add it to old gear (frames/weapons) and void fissures (solo fissure is HORRIBLE).

9 hours ago, (PSN)iuvenilis said:

I can pretty much guarantee, there's thousands of players who's loot does not reflect the drop tables. That's how variance works. Only once you get into very large number of trials will your loot look closer to the drop tables.

*clap* +1

9 hours ago, (PSN)iuvenilis said:

And so I extend that concept to corrupted holokeys. If the intention is, on average, to get 10 holokeys every 3-4 missions, just give 2-3 guaranteed every mission. Cuts down on all the BS. (Or make the ergo glast weapons tradeable)

We have posted about guaranteed few holos per missions... we get guaranteed 1 holo per Sister. *laughs and cries a little*

Edited December 17, 2023 by quxier

[Lancars]

On 2023-12-16 at 7:35 AM, Cerikus said:

With a chance of 37.5% and 10 attempts there is 99.0905% chance OP already got the drop at least once.
With 38 attempts it would be 99.9999982%
With 100 attempts it would be 99.9999999%

As I said, it's possible that OP is the unluckiest player out there, but it's quite improbable. All I wanted was to clear up a possible misunderstanding, because I've already ran into players that didn't realize they need to do void storm.

Yea but you can still have moments where each run is 37.5% and still not get it over and over since its not a 37.5% over all. Again i've had games give me 90 to 95% success rate and i've happen times when i get several failures in a row. I've had 50% proc rates on things and i would sit their not a proc in sight for a good while or it would proc so much in a moment and there isn't a 50% balance in that as its per instance.

You could take an item that lets say has a 50% proc chance. Both items next to each other doing their thing. You may end up with vastly different outcomes because its not an overall percent but a percent per instance. Flip of the coin. And with a lower chance you could get the failed flips more or less.

[JaegerJock]

Chiming in because I've been trying to farm Holokeys today:

I just tried farming this for 3 hours on Veil Proxima Void Storm, an average of 13 minutes for each run, and did not receive any Holokeys at all. That's pretty wild. I would take 4 keys instead of 10 if it was guaranteed.

[Zakkhar]

On 2023-12-16 at 12:47 PM, Lancars said:

Yes i am doing the veil one so i can get 10.

You may want to consider changing strategy to instead do faster/easier missions that drop less keys. This way you flatten the curve and get less frustrated when undesired stuff drops.

29 minutes ago, JaegerJock said:

I just tried farming this for 3 hours on Veil Proxima Void Storm, an average of 13 minutes for each run, and did not receive any Holokeys at all. That's pretty wild. I would take 4 keys instead of 10 if it was guaranteed.

Would you consider the above? I do not understand what you guys see in Veil. I always pick Skirmish, whichever Proxima has it.

 

[Lancars]

On 2023-12-28 at 5:35 AM, Zakkhar said:

You may want to consider changing strategy to instead do faster/easier missions that drop less keys. This way you flatten the curve and get less frustrated when undesired stuff drops.

Would you consider the above? I do not understand what you guys see in Veil. I always pick Skirmish, whichever Proxima has it.

 

Surprisingly the missions go pretty fast. I can get through them easily if I'm prepared. So speed isn't the issue its the fact i will do them over and over, any mission and the chance to drop is low compared to what they say % wise. It's not an overall % otherwise i would statistically get keys but a per mission basis and you can go many missions without getting drops. Again almost every game seems to get these percents wrong at times. Again i've had games with low chance and you get stuff and games with near 100% chance and you get several failures in a row. I don't trust it either digitally due to the fact there are bugs that happen in games that can freeze or break chances so you can't even be sure.

Heck i can't fully remember when but there was a time when DE posted percent chances on drops only to find out it was false as the real chance had an extra zero making its drop chance so low no one would get the drop. I think it was the amalgam mods from the boss fight. So in the end i can't trust their drop rates to be correct and truthful.