Relic RNG still bad.

[Dreez76]

Me and 3 other players decided to run a "flawless" group with Lith M1 Radiant Relics, they wanted the Mag Prime part while i was after Dakra, we ran the mission fast and was waiting for the much wanted reward..  And we got this..

http://images.akamai.steamusercontent.com/ugc/260465617080075946/5C3B9C340887A5FB66700643B84D348A28534AE3/

Now.. i don't care if the stars are aligned and a supernova happened that made universal laws change for a millisecond, THIS should not happen, PERIOD... 4 players rolling the EXACT SAME item out of 24 different rolls...

[maxedpotato]

whats worse, every time we will get a new prime acces we cant farm relics in advance. we'll get new relics.
i would like to add something else though. i used up ALL of my 46 relics to get a mag prime bp. didn't get one. and yes, i used a lot of void traces.

[bWild]

I would take that receiver if you ask me.

[LSG501]

this isn't the first time this has been 'reported'... could it be they messed up the fix to the 'different rng for different players' bug (each player got different set of 4 rewards) which we had before.

Mind you I wouldn't have minded the lex receiver, I need one for syndicates lol

[tifanator]

Well, the probability of all 4 people rolling the same thing is relatively low, so technically you could consider this good RNG.

[AEP8FlyBoy]

You should be lucky that we are able to change RNG at all. With 4 Radiant Relics you get a 25-30% chance for someone to roll what you are all searching for... (That's a rough estimate btw.)

Before the Relic system, we would have to farm countless keys to Rotation C, which was not only a huge time-killer. It was just all around no fun at all.
I'm happy that we can skew RNG to any degree, even if sometimes we still don't get what we want.

Some people will only be happy when they get exactly what they want, first run, and with little to no investment whatsoever.
Typical.

RNG is RNG, it is still very much a thing. Best get used to it, my friend.
Just be happy that we can change it at all, which in my opinion is a complete godsend.

Edited August 1, 2016 by AEP8FlyBoy

[Airwolfen]

19 hours ago, Dreez76 said:

Now.. i don't care if the stars are aligned and a supernova happened that made universal laws change for a millisecond, THIS should not happen, PERIOD... 4 players rolling the EXACT SAME item out of 24 different rolls...

well actually its 4 rolls with 1/5 chance of lex receiver with that refinement level. And it should happen... well... 0.16% of the time that is

Edited August 2, 2016 by Airwolfen
Dangit forgot to x100 so yay more chance

[SolaireTheSunWalker]

 

[Sovyul]

Well yesterday the entire party got forma. Just because the chances of happening are really low, it doesn't mean that it's impossible. And this happened only once since the new system for me.

Edited August 1, 2016 by Sovyul

[Dreez76]

I think you all misunderstand the meaning of my post. It's not because we didn't get the BP we wanted, its because all 4 players rolled exactly the same RNG-roll out of 24 possible rolls, or 6 each, and that is a chance that is almost non-existant, it shouldn't happen.

[Hopeisdead]

Just curious.

Why something with certain mathematical probability should not happen ? 

[Inarticulate]

10 minutes ago, Dreez76 said:

I think you all misunderstand the meaning of my post. It's not because we didn't get the BP we wanted, its because all 4 players rolled exactly the same RNG-roll out of 24 possible rolls, or 6 each, and that is a chance that is almost non-existant, it shouldn't happen.

You're saying that if I roll 4 dice, I should never be able to roll 4 1's?

[Dreez76]

11 hours ago, Inarticulate said:

You're saying that if I roll 4 dice, I should never be able to roll 4 1's?

Each Relic has a 6item table, so the odds of all 4 players rolling the very same item should be astronomically small. It's like you playing Russian Roulette with a 6chamber gun and only 1 empty chamber, then firing the gun 24 times and hitting the empty chamber each time... what would be the chances of that?.

[Airwolfen]

1 hour ago, Dreez76 said:

Each Relic has a 6item table, so the odds of all 4 players rolling the very same item should be astronomically small. It's like you playing Russian Roulette with a 6chamber gun and only 1 empty chamber, then firing the gun 24 times and hitting the empty chamber each time... what would be the chances of that?.

No. that is FAR from correct.

With that level of refinement each common drop has a 20% (So 1/5 not 1/6) drop chance and you still only roll 4 times. No Idea where you got the 24 from but it is outright wrong.

It is not 24 possible rolls. it is 6 items 4 separate times.

Edited August 2, 2016 by Airwolfen

[(PSN)DesecratedFlame]

It's like playing a game with a die where you have to roll higher than a three to win. You should theoretically have a 50-50 shot at it, but DE doctored the die so that 5 of the six sides have a one on them and only the side with the six is left untouched. Sure, you can still win via RNG, but the fact that your chance of winning is now only 1 in 6 instead of 1 in 2 is NOT random. It is something DE did deliberately.

This is why I always chuckle when people start screaming RNG in response to threads like these.

[ScribbleClash]

Being able to get the same reward from identical relics shouldn't be a thing imo. I know this would severly cut the grin, but it would promote coordinated squads and reward planning ahead.

[Airwolfen]

18 hours ago, Airwolfen said:

well actually its 4 rolls with 1/5 chance of lex receiver with that refinement level. And it should happen... well... 0.0016% of the time that is

Stupid me forgot the x100. so the chance of all 4 members getting the same drop at that level is 0.16%

[Icymountain]

You do understand that no matter how good the RNG is, this can and will still happen eventually, right? It's basic probability. 

Edited August 2, 2016 by Icymountain

[-Sandman]

1 hour ago, (PS4)DesecratedFlame said:

It's like playing a game with a die where you have to roll higher than a three to win. You should theoretically have a 50-50 shot at it, but DE doctored the die so that 5 of the six sides have a one on them and only the side with the six is left untouched. Sure, you can still win via RNG, but the fact that your chance of winning is now only 1 in 6 instead of 1 in 2 is NOT random. It is something DE did deliberately.

This is why I always chuckle when people start screaming RNG in response to threads like these.

Sometimes I wonder the same thing. It's clear that a large portion of the community don't understand how statistics works. 

Given a large amount of rolls the drop rates will resemble the actual proportions allocated. So the reason why the drop rates feel impossible after many runs is not because it's simply random, it's because the probability is extremely low. If DE would publish the stats on what was actually awarded we would see the real drop chance. 

Edited August 2, 2016 by -Sandman

[Airwolfen]

1 hour ago, -Sandman said:

Sometimes I wonder the same thing. It's clear that a large portion of the community don't understand how statistics works. 

Given a large amount of rolls the drop rates will resemble the actual proportions allocated. So the reason why the drop rates feel impossible after many runs is not because it's simply random, it's because the probability is extremely low. If DE would publish the stats on what was actually awarded we would see the real drop chance. 

But why base a claim statistics if there are no statistics. What we do have however is the data mined chances of each rarity at each refinement level. So we can calculate the average amount of runs a player needs to gain X item.

The forums are a bad place to take those statistics from btw. as people usually only come to complain about about the drops and those who are lucky just move on.

If Warframe support wanted a statistical reading of who has problems and who do not. Could they look purely at the tickets and would they get a accurate reading of problems VS no problems?

[-Sandman]

4 minutes ago, Airwolfen said:

But why base a claim statistics if there are no statistics. What we do have however is the data mined chances of each rarity at each refinement level. So we can calculate the average amount of runs a player needs to gain X item.

The forums are a bad place to take those statistics from btw. as people usually only come to complain about about the drops and those who are lucky just move on.

If Warframe support wanted a statistical reading of who has problems and who do not. Could they look purely at the tickets and would they get a accurate reading of problems VS no problems?

What? I was talking about the law of large numbers and statistics in general. That's why I said if they showed the data of the actual drops for the entire community then we would see the actual drop percentages which will be close to whatever they set it to IF it is purely dice rolls and not doctored. 

[Airwolfen]

7 minutes ago, -Sandman said:

What? I was talking about the law of large numbers and statistics in general. That's why I said if they showed the data of the actual drops for the entire community then we would see the actual drop percentages which will be close to whatever they set it to IF it is purely dice rolls and not doctored. 

sorry meant to be more general about it, as a lot of people seem to take the forum complaints as statistics

[-Sandman]

Just now, Airwolfen said:

sorry meant to be more general about it, as a lot of people seem to take the forum complaints as statistics

Got ya.

Well my post was merely to remind people that a low drop rate over a wide data set simply means that the drop rate is that low and not just because its random. 

[crafturtoemc]

Wait, the update if new Prime Access come out we will have to specifically farm for new RELIC that contains the drop table?

 

Yeah nice, rip 1100+ Relics.

[Inarticulate]

9 hours ago, Dreez76 said:

Each Relic has a 6item table, so the odds of all 4 players rolling the very same item should be astronomically small. It's like you playing Russian Roulette with a 6chamber gun and only 1 empty chamber, then firing the gun 24 times and hitting the empty chamber each time... what would be the chances of that?.

7 hours ago, (PS4)DesecratedFlame said:

It's like playing a game with a die where you have to roll higher than a three to win. You should theoretically have a 50-50 shot at it, but DE doctored the die so that 5 of the six sides have a one on them and only the side with the six is left untouched. Sure, you can still win via RNG, but the fact that your chance of winning is now only 1 in 6 instead of 1 in 2 is NOT random. It is something DE did deliberately.

This is why I always chuckle when people start screaming RNG in response to threads like these.

Going by the data in the wiki, the chances with a Radiant Void Relic are 16.7% for each of 3 common items, 20% for each of 2 uncommon items, and 10% for the 1 rare item. This is effectively a slightly weighted 6-sided die. With 4 identical relics, this is equivalent to 4 rolls of this slightly weighted die.

Any board game enthusiast can tell you that "RNG" is no different than a dice roll. Uneven chances are no different than rolling a D20 and saying 1-2 means one thing, 3-10 means another thing, and 11-20 means something else.

Edited August 2, 2016 by Inarticulate