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Is RNG outdated? - Number Shuffling System and Fail Safe System


Dark_Sp00n
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Good day to you, dear Development Team, dear Tenno.

Today, I want to talk to you about RNG, who knew, right?
I think the RNG system has shown its limits in many ways now. Even after the increase in riven drop chance, this is what my spaceship looks like already:

XaHgbTm.png

Give it 2 weeks and I'll cover the window as well. Also, you haven't seen the lower part of my ship... Not to mention that I still have plenty of space for riven mods. I actually dropped more before the increase in drop chance than I do now.
Let's not even start talking about my 1001 tries with Harrow systems and many other items that became a legend as soon as they were released. (I'm still convinced Harrow systems don't exist.)

 

How does a Random Number Generator work usually?
As far as I know, the game calculates your reward every time you go through a mission. So if the letters are runs, and the numbers are rewards, they could look like this:
ABCDEFGH
1213548763

Just as much as they could look like this:
ABCDEFGH
11113111141

Or this:
ABCDEFGH
8878888882

Now let's say 8 is the rare drop and 1 to 7 are common drops. you may get that rare drop 8 times in a row or never in your whole lifetime.

What could we do to avoid the "never getting the item" part?

Introducing, here and just for you: 

 

----------------The Number Shuffling System (NSS)----------------                   

poppin1.gif                   

Let's say 1,2,3,4,5 are common drops, 6 and 7 are uncommon drops and 8 are rare drops.

You insert those 8 numbers into your system and all it does is decide if it's 12387654 or 81237654. It doesn't chose the numbers you'll get, just in what order you get them. This means everyone WILL get the reward in the end, by still keeping the luck part. Now, the problem with this system is the optimization: when you have an item with a 0.06% drop chance you get a list of numbers that will look like this:

Spoiler

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Now imagine doing it for every single tenno AND every single item, considering there are items with a much lower drop chance. This would lead to 2 things: DE setting higher drop chances to avoid losing too much money for data storage and players actually dropping things. The problem being the data storage part. This systems costs A LOT compared to the RNG system. So it's really just up to DE whether they can and want to do this or not, putting the emphasis on "can".

Thanks for reading, now pardon me, but I have to leave for my 1002nd run. :satisfied:

Have a nice day!

Edit: After discussing with another Tenno, we also had the idea of a Failsafe system.

----------------The Fail Safe System (FSS)----------------                   

Maybe a combination of two failsafe systems would be a valid solution to this RNG problem.
On one hand, repeating a mission would increase your chances at getting an item by increasing the droprate and on the other hand we could have a safety cap, which means that once you run the same mission x times, the game gifts you a copy of the farmed rare item instead of your reward if you didn't drop it yet. Again: if you run it 2*x times, the game will gift you one if you didn't drop a 2nd one already.

Combining both would mean they would push the safety cap much further if they increase the chances, meaning that if you still reach that cap without dropping the item, it would mean that luck really wasn't on your side so far and it's basically the game admitting it's flaws by saying: dude, here, have your item. You tried hard, my system ain't perfect and I know it, so have your consolation prize.

Edit2: Most recently, the idea of the token system was introduced in the comments down below.

Edited by Dark_Sp00n
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49 minutes ago, Dark_Sp00n said:

You insert those 8 numbers into your system and all it does is decide if it's 12387654 or 81237654. It doesn't chose the numbers you'll get, just in what order you get them. This means everyone WILL get the reward in the end, by still keeping the luck part.

Could you explain how your system is more profitable for DE than the current system? (Because that's what matters in the end)

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26 minutes ago, WhiteMarker said:

Could you explain how your system is more profitable for DE than the current system? (Because that's what matters in the end)

The community being more satisfied, increasing the number of players, decreasing the amount of quitting players. This doesn't mean they make it easier to acquire ingame items, it means they make it guaranteed that some day, you will get them, being true to the moto "ninjas play free", as for now, I really feel like RNG is set out to enver give me harrow systems and I simply will "have" to buy him for plats.

Edited by Dark_Sp00n
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5 minutes ago, Dark_Sp00n said:

it means they make it guaranteed that some day, you will get them

Technically that's what we have already.

Let's be real here:
This new system will do nothing.
I wont know, when I will get the wanted item. I only know that I will get it some day. This could mean, I have to play for 1000 days before getting the wanted item. That's no difference to the current system. Right now I also don't know, when I will drop something. I just keep on trying and farming until I get it.
So if people quit, because they don't like the current system, they will also quit with the new system.
Nothing will change.
So the question remains: How is this new system more profitable than the current one?

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45 minutes ago, WhiteMarker said:

Technically that's what we have already.

Let's be real here:
This new system will do nothing.
I wont know, when I will get the wanted item. I only know that I will get it some day. This could mean, I have to play for 1000 days before getting the wanted item. That's no difference to the current system. Right now I also don't know, when I will drop something. I just keep on trying and farming until I get it.
So if people quit, because they don't like the current system, they will also quit with the new system.
Nothing will change.
So the question remains: How is this new system more profitable than the current one?

You missed what OP tried to show us with RNG you have a chance to never get a certain item with number suffling you have a guaranteed chance to get it in X runs.

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1 minute ago, Fallen_Echo said:

You missed what OP tried to show us with RNG you have a chance to never get a certain item with number suffling you have a guaranteed chance to get it in X runs.

So I trade the chance of never getting an item (this chance doesn't exist, because we all know how probabilities work...) for a guaranteed item-drop after maybe multiple years.
That sounds great.

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@Dark_Sp00n

How about another much better system the failsafe rng?

In the failsafe rng you get your drops the same way as before but with an increasing chance toward rare drops as time moves.

2 minutes ago, WhiteMarker said:

So I trade the chance of never getting an item (this chance doesn't exist, because we all know how probabilities work...) for a guaranteed item-drop after maybe multiple years.
That sounds great.

Well blame DE for that if an item has 0.1% droprate that means you need to do 1000 runs for one drop but with RNG you have a chance to never get it since the system uses the same rarity numbers every time.

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Just now, Fallen_Echo said:

Well blame DE for that if an item has 0.1% droprate that means you need to do 1000 runs for one drop but with RNG you have a chance to never get it since the system uses the same rarity numbers every time.

No, you don't need 1000 runs to get the item. And no, there is no chance of never getting the item.
Please don't spread false information. Just check how probabilities work.

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24 minutes ago, WhiteMarker said:

No, you don't need 1000 runs to get the item. And no, there is no chance of never getting the item.
Please don't spread false information. Just check how probabilities work.

Yes, this is how probablity works, except it isn't.

You are right: Most people will get it before a thousand attempts.

You are wrong: Despite increased chances for Riven mods, I still only get ayatans, and I am not the only one in this situation.

Here is the thing: "Most"

And this is our issue here. The minorities. You seem to have had a lot of luck with your runs lately, but it isn't the case for all players. Hell, it ain't the case for the majority of players. This system doesn't reduce your chances at getting an item, apart from getting it multiple times so you can sell it for platinum to other players (which is a very greedy attitude), it increases it for other players. In that way, this forum thread doesn't really concern you, except for one scenario: If being one of the rare players who could acquire an item through simple luck is a privilege to you, and you feel like this privilege is not going to stay one, because other players will get it as well, then your messages are but the reflection of your ego, because you want to stay "that special player", in which case you are either welcome to go play SAO and become the one player with the dual-wielding skill, or you are welcome to stay and brag on, but in the latter scenario, I will simply ignore you.

 

25 minutes ago, Fallen_Echo said:

@Dark_Sp00n

How about another much better system the failsafe rng?

In the failsafe rng you get your drops the same way as before but with an increasing chance toward rare drops as time moves.

Well blame DE for that if an item has 0.1% droprate that means you need to do 1000 runs for one drop but with RNG you have a chance to never get it since the system uses the same rarity numbers every time.

I actually thought about the failsafe system as well, in a much more "safe" way: A safety cap. 
After 200 tries, if you didn't get it already, you drop the item. And you get it at 400 as well if you didn't drop it a second time yet. The thing is, knowing exactly when it's coming means you sacrifice some of the luck part that makes this system so interesting to the players. The anticipation of whether you'll get something or not is what makes people stay. That's why I chose to talk about the NSS, rather than failsafe or "safe failsafe".

Because increasing probability, as the failsafe does, wouldn't fix the issue of the computer just not giving you an item because he'd rather give you the other numbers.

Because having a set cap that you just have to reach, as my "safe" failsafe implies, would kill the fun of the luck and anticipation.

Edited by Dark_Sp00n
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@Fallen_Echo Maybe a combination of both failsafe systems would be a valid solution to this problem... Increasing chances AND a safety cap?
Meaning they would make increasing chances, but as a result, the safety cap would be much harder to reach. That way, the safety cap feels much less like a way to cheese the item, knowing you'll soon have it. It would much more feel like a consolation prize. Sounds good to me. :laugh:

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1 hour ago, Dark_Sp00n said:

@Fallen_Echo Maybe a combination of both failsafe systems would be a valid solution to this problem... Increasing chances AND a safety cap?
Meaning they would make increasing chances, but as a result, the safety cap would be much harder to reach. That way, the safety cap feels much less like a way to cheese the item, knowing you'll soon have it. It would much more feel like a consolation prize. Sounds good to me. :laugh:

Could work, all it needs is a steadly rising chance to get an item and an actual safety cap at lets say 90-110 runs so we could be finally free from the nonsense like "I burned 30 radiant relics in a rad run with 4 players and the rarest reward still not dropped".

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1 minute ago, Fallen_Echo said:

Could work, all it needs is a steadly rising chance to get an item and an actual safety cap at lets say 90-110 runs so we could be finally free from the nonsense like "I burned 30 radiant relics in a rad run with 4 players and the rarest reward still not dropped".

Actually, I'd prefer the NSS for relic runs, but independat from the item as they have all the same drop chance.

Edited by Dark_Sp00n
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1 minute ago, Fallen_Echo said:

I just used it as an example, i could have said my 26 runs for the harrow systems each with 4 C rotations.

Yeah, but I adressed the relic case specifically^^
In any case, the NSS should not be client based, or people could exploit it to know when they'll drop the super rare item and run useless relics until it's their turn to get that special item. Also, 4 C rotations, you are a madman. Always going only for 2 rotations, except for 1 endurance run I did once... my worst day ever.

Edited by Dark_Sp00n
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6 hours ago, Dark_Sp00n said:

et's say 1,2,3,4,5 are common drops, 6 and 7 are uncommon drops and 8 are rare drops.

You insert those 8 numbers into your system and all it does is decide if it's 12387654 or 81237654. It doesn't chose the numbers you'll get, just in what order you get them. This means everyone WILL get the reward in the end, by still keeping the luck part.

So basically turn random chance into a guaranteed number set...
I could see this being more frustrating.

For example, say you need multiples of the rare item.  Once you get it with your system you now know that you wont be getting the second for gods knows how long until you run through all the numbers in the system all over again!  Good luck getting the two drops you need quickly as now its you get one and then you have a guaranteed period of waiting weeks to get the next one!
That would fee so much better, wouldn't it? /s

The other issue with with sorties.
Everyone in your group in sorties share the same drop.
So how would this system work with it at all?  Whose drop would take control?
Or would we go back to "Everyone gets random rewards so one of the group may get the riven and everyone else gets nothing..." which would feel worse for the rest of the team.

IN short I actually see your system feeling far worse than the previous system and replacing an RNG wall with an insurmountable time wall.

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54 minutes ago, Tsukinoki said:

IN short I actually see your system feeling far worse than the previous system and replacing an RNG wall with an insurmountable time wall.

That's because of your lack of imagination.^^
Also, "insurtmountable"? Really? Provided the evidence above, this is the only system that guarantees you an item you long farmed for and you call this one specifically "insurmountable"?

54 minutes ago, Tsukinoki said:

For example, say you need multiples of the rare item.  Once you get it with your system you now know that you wont be getting the second for gods knows how long until you run through all the numbers in the system all over again!  Good luck getting the two drops you need quickly as now its you get one and then you have a guaranteed period of waiting weeks to get the next one!
That would fee so much better, wouldn't it? /s

Why the hell would you need multiple copies of a rare item, except to greedily sell it for platinum? This will just make you work for your platinum instead of getting it strictly out of luck.

In the case of dual weapons or syndicate rank up requirements, you just add in 2 numbers for the rare item into that rotation. For example, you make 24 numbers and 22,23 and 24 are the rare drops, keeping the proportion of 1 rare for 2 uncommons for 5 commons that I presented above. That way you still may go through the whole 24 numbers to get all you need, but you know you WILL get it. And if your luck is still the same, you may get them in the first 3 tries. In exchange for that, your luck will cost you 21 runs of common and uncommon drops. This just means equal chances for everyone. Again, the only reason I could see why you would not like this system, is that you would lose the privilege your luck has provided you so far, unless, maybe you can provide another explanation?

Also, the discussion has evolved and is now also about introducing failsafe systems, do you have an opinion on those?^^

Edited by Dark_Sp00n
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We just need a token system like every other major MMO out there. After X number of runs you know that you'll have enough tokens to get at least one of Y item. It gives players a goal to work towards knowing that no matter how badly RNG is against them they'll eventually get what they're after. I know there was talk about this already, just no idea when it will be implemented, but it can't be soon enough.

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3 minutes ago, True_Naeblis said:

We just need a token system like every other major MMO out there. After X number of runs you know that you'll have enough tokens to get at least one of Y item. It gives players a goal to work towards knowing that no matter how badly RNG is against them they'll eventually get what they're after. I know there was talk about this already, just no idea when it will be implemented, but it can't be soon enough.

I faintly remember hearing it once on a devstream. This would help a lot indeed. But I'd cry if they introduced the same as with Void Traces: a variable amount dropping every time. Please make those drop according to how we perform in missions. :crylaugh:

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15 hours ago, Dark_Sp00n said:

The community being more satisfied, increasing the number of players, decreasing the amount of quitting players. This doesn't mean they make it easier to acquire ingame items, it means they make it guaranteed that some day, you will get them, being true to the moto "ninjas play free", as for now, I really feel like RNG is set out to enver give me harrow systems and I simply will "have" to buy him for plats.

more satisfaction according to your theory is getting things faster. . equation would be :

getting things faster = easy game

easy game = bored player

bored player = leave game

leave game = not good for DE

not good for DE <  it will never happen

Edited by (PS4)fullblast35
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15 hours ago, Fallen_Echo said:

Well blame DE for that if an item has 0.1% droprate that means you need to do 1000 runs for one drop but with RNG you have a chance to never get it since the system uses the same rarity numbers every time.

 

15 hours ago, WhiteMarker said:

No, you don't need 1000 runs to get the item. And no, there is no chance of never getting the item.
Please don't spread false information. Just check how probabilities work.

Actually for a 0.1% drop chance, with 1000 runs still means you have about a 36.77% chance of not having gotten said item even once (going with sequential probability), thus actually only about 63.23% chance to have had it drop at-least once.  This means a bit over one third of the player wont get the item after 1000 runs (quite a significant amount).  While after about 3000 runs about 5% wont have gotten the item (if we presume a player base of 50,000 (its likely higher), that is 2500 players who didn't get the item after doing an activity 3000 times, that is presuming they all bother with 3000 runs in the first place).

There is always a chance of never getting an item with RNG, it just gets less and less likely every additional time you do trigger the chance.

 

9 hours ago, True_Naeblis said:

We just need a token system like every other major MMO out there. After X number of runs you know that you'll have enough tokens to get at least one of Y item. It gives players a goal to work towards knowing that no matter how badly RNG is against them they'll eventually get what they're after. I know there was talk about this already, just no idea when it will be implemented, but it can't be soon enough.

This was essentially the initial concept for Baro to be with prime parts, yet we can see what we got wasn't much like that at all.

Edited by Loswaith
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57 minutes ago, (PS4)fullblast35 said:

more satisfaction according to your theory is getting things faster. . equation would be :

getting things faster = easy game

easy game = bored player

bored player = leave game

leave game = not good for DE

not good for DE <  it will never happen

except the current equation is:

try to get a thing + keep trying to get thing after several years + still haven't gotten item = give up, get bored, leave.That for me is the case with a weapon known as the Hate, and is also what happened to me with the Latron Prime. In fact the RNG in this game has caused me to leave several times, only coming back every now and again with each major update and only if friends are playing.

I know the standard response to this is "blah blah blah some obscure Korean/Chinese/Whatever MMO is worse blah blah blah" but people forget that grind =! RNG. Grind is just something repetitive you have to do with a guaranteed result at the end of X attempts. RNG is pure luck. There's no skill involved, no grinding, just pure praying to RNGesus and hoping you get what you want. That isn't engaging. There's no sense of satisfaction at the end, just a sense of "thank f*cking god that's over with" which is not what you want in a game. The proposed system will at least give everyone equal footing and allow the unlucky such as myself to actually grind for items rather than just relying on pure luck. And as far as I understand it, the ones who are lucky will not be affected heavily by this change

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know it looked sarcastic, but my point was that it's the new order in gaming now : grinding and micro transactions.  this is the new formula for Game devs to make money, way more efficient than coming with a new episode of the game in between years.  I have a specific theory about warfare's rng but its my personal opinion.  To me something with absolute randomness cannot be created by mankind, it's in nature :)  whatever people are calling RNG is something elaborated by people.  Since it can be modified, since you can inject variables in it, it is not absolute. therefor it is not pure randomness.  A number generator acts on what it has,  so if you remove one item, as it is done manually you have to reconfigure the generator, either make it less random or dilute it.  and that's just one part of what i think, the other part has to do with certain times during the day.  you'd  to have played 20 hours in one day to catch up on that.  

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4 hours ago, Loswaith said:

There is always a chance of never getting an item with RNG, it just gets less and less likely every additional time you do trigger the chance.

For a finite amount of tries, yes. But probabilities are definite for an infinit amount of tries. And that's why there is no chance of never getting something.
Yes, that's not quite how reality works, but still.

The problem is, the OP fixes only the issue of never getting something. He doesn't fix the problem of getting multiple instances of an item. As someone already said, it will take forever to get multiple instances.
Right now we could get the same item back to back. With OP's system we will have to run through all those numbers over and over and over and over and over again.
If I want an item two times, I could get it back to back. One time as the last number in the line, and the seconde time as the first number in the line. But what if I want the item a third time? I have to run through the whole seconde line of numbers. And if I'm unlucky, the third item is again the last item in the line. So I have to run through 3 lines of all numbers, until I'm happy. Right now it COULD take this much time as well. But it also could take way less time.

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