Crazy sentient ephemera drop rate.

[Harkonnenn]

Just who in DE came up with such an idea? You wanted us to  find red caches? Here you are. All of them are scenes. Whats the point of making the same drop list as for yellow caches, except for adding epemera with stupidly low chance...

 

Spoiler

 

Edited January 11, 2020 by Harkonnenn

[actuallyVile]

I've been exceptionally frustrated about this as well...and I haven't even found a red one yet. But I just know there's going to be a captura scene in there when I do. The RNG lately is absolutely overkill. 

[Umbriellan]

Except the 1st & 2nd pictures which appear to be a duplicate ...
How in the world did you met NINE time this red sentient thing ?!

+60 missions in the anomaly and I only saw 2 yellow chests... 😭

[(PSN)Hikuro-93]

The same person who waltzed in office, nerd glasses blazing, scruffy hair and coffee stains on shirt, screaming:

"I cracked the code! I know the answer to replayable content, and how to make players busier for longer! I got a bunch of awesome ideas involving grind and rng! The players will worship me beyond clemness!"

Edited January 11, 2020 by (PS4)Hikuro-93

[Harkonnenn]

16 minutes ago, Umbriellan said:

Except the 1st & 2nd pictures which appear to be a duplicate ...
How in the world did you met NINE time this red sentient thing ?!

+60 missions in the anomaly and I only saw 2 yellow chests... 😭

Yeah, I got it. Copied the wrong url. Actually I found more than 11 red caches, just didnt take screenshots sometimes.

Edited January 11, 2020 by Harkonnenn

[DrakeWurrum]

I haven't even found the cache once...

 

What the hell happened to ephemera being a reward for skill?

Edited January 11, 2020 by DrakeWurrum

[actuallyVile]

19 minutes ago, Umbriellan said:

How in the world did you met NINE time this red sentient thing ?!

By having (clan)mates jump into the missions on invite only status, looking for a red one and inviting other (clan)mates when one is found so more people can potentially benefit from this rng horror. (Notice he's not the host in all of these screenshots, though most of them do seem to be from the same -very dedicated- host)

[Umbriellan]

il y a 8 minutes, Harkonnenn a dit :

 They are not duplicates. That spot is common. Actually I found more than 11 red caches, just didnt take screenshots sometimes.

Holy grakatas ...
 

il y a 1 minute, -AxHx-Vile a dit :

By having (clan)mates jump into the missions on invite only status, looking for a red one and inviting other (clan)mates when one is found so more people can potentially benefit from this rng horror. (Notice he's not the host in all of these screenshots, though most of them do seem to be from the same -very dedicated- host)

Reading your answer, and doing quick maths: it's 64% chance to meet the red-box if you can make 4 players doing runs (and with 8-runs/players made in the 29 minutes).
Even if this technic is giving burnout, at least it makes it "decent" to ... only meet the red cache (not even speaking of droping the ephemera).

[DrakeWurrum]

3 minutes ago, Umbriellan said:

Reading your answer, and doing quick maths: it's 64% chance to meet the red-box if you can make 4 players doing runs (and with 8-runs/players made in the 29 minutes).
Even if this technic is giving burnout, at least it makes it "decent" to ... only meet the red cache (not even speaking of droping the ephemera).

It's the only reliable method. Four people running separately, setting the match style to Friends Only (assuming they're on your list), and getting into voice chat together. Then when you find it, speak up in voice chat, everybody aborts and joins yours.

[actuallyVile]

4 minutes ago, Umbriellan said:

Reading your answer, and doing quick maths: it's 64% chance to meet the red-box if you can make 4 players doing runs (and with 8-runs/players made in the 29 minutes).
Even if this technic is giving burnout, at least it makes it "decent" to ... only meet the red cache (not even speaking of droping the ephemera).

Considering the amount of runs I've done, that sounds like a way too high % chance...show us the math behind this conclusion?

[Umbriellan]

il y a 10 minutes, -AxHx-Vile a dit :

Considering the amount of runs I've done, that sounds like a way too high % chance...show us the math behind this conclusion?

I heard the red-chest will appear with 2% chance in any Anomaly missions. (2%)
In the best condition, I'm able to join the Anomaly-run when remains 28min~ and then can do up to 8 runs for the remaining times = 2% * 8 = 16%
And IF you get a full squad (4 players) to do the exact same ammount of run as yourself = 16% * 4 (you (1) + (3) friends) = 64%

 

But if we have to look at the Ephemera drop chance:
2% chance to get a red-chest = > if there are 5 items droping from it, with an equal-chance to drop, you get 1/5 chance to get the ephemera (so 20%)
0.02 * 0.2 = 0.004 ; or 0.4% chance to get the ephemera in an Anomaly-run.

With 8 runs = 3.2% chance to get the ephemera || with a full squad = 12.8% to get it.

Edited January 11, 2020 by Umbriellan

[DrivaMain]

30 minutes ago, DrakeWurrum said:

What the hell happened to ephemera being a reward for skill?

They likely scrap that idea unfortunately and just let RNG do it’s thing. IMO, any drop rate that is below 5% is unacceptable for me.

[DrakeWurrum]

14 minutes ago, Umbriellan said:

In the best condition, I'm able to join the Anomaly-run when remains 28min~ and then can do up to 8 runs for the remaining times = 2% * 8 = 16%
And IF you get a full squad (4 players) to do the exact same ammount of run as yourself = 16% * 4 (you (1) + (3) friends) = 64%

That's not how probability works, and not how the caches work.

You have to first realize that the 2% chance means that anywhere a container spawns, there's a 2% chance it will be a red chest, if a chest spawns there to begin with.

But let's pretend you only have a flat 2% chance per mission for the sake of easy math.

There's a 98% chance that it won't spawn for that single run. For each additional run beyond that, there's a 98% chance it won't spawn. So it goes like this.

1. 98%
2. 96.04%
3. 94.1192%
4. 92.236816%

And so on.

So if you only had a flat 2% chance to see a red chest per mission, in 4 separate runs, there's actually a 7.8% you will see it once.

If you do 8 total runs before the ship despawns, there's a 14.93% chance you will see it exactly once.

If you have 4 separate people doing 8 runs each, so 32 separate 2% chances to see the red chest, there's a 47.62% chance of you seeing it once.

Where X is the decimal chance of something happening (i.e. 2% is 0.02), and y is the number of runs/drops/chances/etc, the formula for the probability is such:

1 - ( ( 1 - x ) ^ y )

Edited January 11, 2020 by DrakeWurrum

[Harkonnenn]

6 minutes ago, Umbriellan said:

I heard the red-chest will appear with 2% chance in any Anomaly missions. (2%)
In the best condition, I'm able to join the Anomaly-run when remains 28min~ and then can do up to 8 runs for the remaining times = 2% * 8 = 16%
And IF you get a full squad (4 players) to do the exact same ammount of run as yourself = 16% * 4 (you (1) + (3) friends) = 64%

 

But if we have to look at the Ephemera drop chance:
2% chance to get a red-chest = > if there are 5 items droping from it, with an equal-chance to drop, you get 1/5 chance to get the ephemera (so 20%)
0.02 * 0.2 = 0.004 ; or 0.4% chance to get the ephemera in an Anomaly-run.

With 8 runs = 3.2% chance to get the ephemera || with a full squad = 12.8% to get it.

16? 64? It doesnt work that way.

 Plus, there are 5 captura scenes, apart from ephemera.

[actuallyVile]

14 minutes ago, Umbriellan said:

In the best condition, I'm able to join the Anomaly-run when remains 28min~ and then can do up to 8 runs for the remaining times = 2% * 8 = 16%
And IF you get a full squad (4 players) to do the exact same ammount of run as yourself = 16% * 4 (you (1) + (3) friends) = 64%

I'm afraid that's not how probability math works. The formula for it is 1 - ( ( 1 - drop chance ) ^ nr of runs ). If we go by a chance of 2% (which I'm not sure is the actual spawn chance, but let's go with it), then 10 attempts would give you a 1 - ( ( 1 - 0.02 ) ^ 10 ) = 18,29% chance to find the red container. Having four people do that isn't simply multiplying the % by 4, though in this situation you're not extremely far off, but still. 40 attempts would give a 1 - ( ( 1 - 0.02 ) ^ 40 ) = 55,43% chance of a red container being found.

However, I feel like the 2% chance may be incorrect. Would love to see the source for that (which is hopefully DE).

EDIT: Sidenote, a nice simple website you can use to do some calculations is https://en.calc-site.com/probabilities/drop_item

Edited January 11, 2020 by -AxHx-Vile

[DrivaMain]

26 minutes ago, Umbriellan said:

I heard the red-chest will appear with 2% chance in any Anomaly missions. (2%)

You are incorrect on that one, it seems DE uses the same formula of Reinforced container in normal missions. According to some sources the probability of 1 reinforced sentient container spawn is actually around <1%. 

Edited January 11, 2020 by DrivaMain

[Danwich.]

One more...

Sentient pool scene

Спойлер

 

[(XBOX)Kuhl MC]

Nice, now I know at least, how these containers look like... Never saw any of those yet. Great job DE, putting a desirable reward behind a time gate, abysmally low spawn rates and a convoluted loot pool full of useless filler crap (=Captura scenes)... I'll pass on that one until someone at DE is finally struck by a lightning bolt of sanity.