(Maths required) Which of these gives me the most slash procs?

[MrPing1000]

Playing around with the Tenet Flux rifle and I'm too dumb to figure this out.

Which of these results in the most slash procs?

61.8% chance of a slash proc when you proc with 138.4% status chance

or

49.1% chance of a slash proc when you proc with 161.8% status chance

It may be a moot point due to quite a big difference in actual hit damage but I'm curious.

[Tiltskillet]

Math isn't my forte, but I think it's just...

 

average procs per projectile * slash weight

1.384 * .618 = .856 slash procs per projectile average

vs.

1.618 * .491 = .794 slash procs per projectile average

 

 

[MqToasty]

@Tiltskilletis correct.  Here's a more detailed breakdown:

First Setup:

Odds of 2 Slash Procs: 0.618 * (0.384 * 0.618) = 14.7%
Odds of no Slash Procs: 0.382 * 0.616 + 0.382 * (0.384 * 0.382) = 29.1%
Odds of exactly 1 Slash Proc: 0.618 * 0.616 + 0.618 * (0.384 * 0.382) + 0.382 * (0.384 * 0.618) = 56.2%

Expected Slash Procs: 2 * 0.147 + 0.562 = 0.856

Second Setup:

Odds of 2 Slash Procs: 0.491 * (0.618 * 0.491) = 14.9%
Odds of no Slash Procs: 0.509 * 0.382 + 0.509 * (0.618 * 0.509) = 35.5%
Odds of exactly 1 Slash Proc: 0.491 * 0.382 + 0.491 * (0.618 * 0.509) + 0.509 * (0.618 * 0.491) = 49.6%

Expected Slash Procs: 2 * 0.149 + 0.496 = 0.794

Basically, the difference is nearly negligible but in the long run the first setup will definitely give you more.

[MrPing1000]

Thanks, I figured it'd be close.  I'll prob end up going for the lower procs option for chunkier actual hit damage.