150 Vault Runs (With Statistics)

[(PSN)SancticuS]

I have now done 150 vault runs and I thought I share some statistics with you guys so you might get a heads up before you enter the vaults looking for treasures.

 

Vault Mod    Received    Percentage
Blind Rage               5          3,33
Fleeting Expertice    9          6,00
Narrow Minded         5          3,33
Overextend             10         6,67
Critical Delay            5         3,33
Heavy Caliber           6         4,00
Vile Precision          11         7,33
Tainted Mag              7         4,67
Burdened Mag         10         6,67
Vicious Spread        12         8,00
Tainted Shell             9         6,00
Hollow Point              9        6,00
Magnum Force         10        6,67
Tainted Clip                5        3,33
Spoiled Strike           26      17,33
Corrupt Charge         11        7,33
Total Runs              150      100%

 

Key Used                  32   
Key use percentage   21,33%   

 

Runs before Heavy Caliber     40    
Runs before Blind Rage         76  

 

Since I might use different keys each time I did not keep track of which key got used most frequent. I also made a note of how many runs I did before I got Heavy Calibre and Blind Rage as they were the mods I wanted most before I started.

 

Some of you might remember my previous post at 100 runs:

 

https://forums.warframe.com/index.php?/topic/241226-100-vault-runs-with-statistics/

 

Blind Rage and Critical Delay both were the least frequent after 100 runs and still are at 150 but now they are joined by Tainted Clip and Narrow minded.

 

A interesting fact is that Overextend was the next most frequent drop after Spoiled Strike with 10% after 100 runs. The following 50 runs yielded 0 Overextended thus knocking it down to the 5th most common drop. So RNG truly is a fickle mistress.

 

I also saw a guy in recruting today posting "Doing vault runs until I get Blind Rage" and thought to myself, that might take longer than you think. But who knows, he maybe got it on his first run :)

 

 

[Mazrim]

Stop researching. DE doesn't like it when you research stuff. >:/ Look what happened when the drop tables were unencrypted and were data mined!

 

Seriously though. Good work.

[rangeless]

nice.....always knew some of the powerful rank 10s were hard to get

[kscott190]

I did 3 runs today and all 3 times the vault required decaying to be opened

[Ryokuzaki]

Amazing work!

[WERElektro]

Interesting.

 

Does the Wiki have statistics like this one? It should!

 

 

I'd say that, based on this statistic, the drop rates seem to be okay to me. - There is nothing overly rare.

 

Funny enough, the only corrupted mod I'm missing is Magnum Force.

Edited July 27, 2014 by WEREsandrock

[Yaerion]

Interesting. Thanks a lot for sharing! Could be used for the Wiki.

 

Recasted from General Discussion.

[Vyrn]

It is called rng. Although they were rare for you, Critical Delay is by far the most common one for me, followed by Tainted Mag. I also seem to get Vicious Spread fairly often. After those, the rest seem to drop at about the same rate.

Anyways, good job. I doubt I'd be able to do 150 vault runs in one sitting or even in a week lol

[Nijuroku]

Did 3 solo runs with extinguished, all vaults were bleeding. Next run I bring a bleeding, the vault was decaying. Fff. I need to play with others more. :/

[(PSN)SancticuS]

I did 3 runs today and all 3 times the vault required decaying to be opened

 

Yeah I did 5 successive runs once and the 3 first times I had to use my Hobbled key. Which reminds me of this classic Dilbert strip.

 

 

Which is actually spot on to how random number generators should behave. Humans have a very hard time comprehending that and a very interesting read is this article regarding the subject.

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/moslive/article-1334712/Humans-concept-randomness-hard-understand.html

 

As it points out if you ask humans to generate random numbers and compare them to computers that do the same task it is very easy to spot which are done by whom since humans will not put down successive runs of same number.

 

This causes people to claim all sorts of tinfoil hat theories specially since humans always try to find a pattern.

 

"I played right after a patch and got X so therefore you have to do that to get it"

"You have to reconnect until you connect to a secret loot server IP then you will get X"

"If you play with someone who has not gotten X you will get it"

"If you have received X you will not get it again"

"I got X several times in a row, RNG is rigged and not random"

 

etc etc etc etc

[ZodiacShinryu]

I like the statistics and its a big plus that this goes to 150 runs contrasting from people complaining that they don't have the mod they are looking for after 5 runs (now that's a joke to try to assume statistics off of).

 

However, the key used statistic isn't very useful because if you have 150 vault mods that means 150 keys were used and even if you only count the 32 you yourself used out of your squad (which I assume that you had a full squad to open every time) but you also switched key types then information continuity is lost and it becomes less meaningful.

 

Also, always to note, that 150 runs is still a small drop in the ocean that is meaningful RNG statistics but a very nice start indeed.

[UltimateSpinDash]

It would be interesting if the game would actually do what you did for the entire playerbase. The rewards given for each run are recorded and the percentages can be seen in-game.

 

It might actually be interesting for the devs too, since they could see if an Item actually drops as often as it's supposed to. Flaws in the RNG would become more apparent.

[AtenAngel]

Very nice work.We thank you for your help

[(PSN)SancticuS]

However, the key used statistic isn't very useful because if you have 150 vault mods that means 150 keys were used and even if you only count the 32 you yourself used out of your squad (which I assume that you had a full squad to open every time) but you also switched key types then information continuity is lost and it becomes less meaningful.

 

d.

 

I specifically noted in the post that I did not keep track of which key got used since it will be switched around a lot. It is still a very useful statistics since it gives you a indications of how likely you are to use your key if you run in a full squad each time. Four keys and four people would mean that each would have a equal 25% chance to have to apply their key.  As you see I landed on 21.33% which is not that far off and I consider that rather useful information for people doing vault runs.

[(PSN)D-onlinekilla-4D]

Great post, OP +1.  

[GeneralArmchair]

Interesting. Thanks a lot for sharing! Could be used for the Wiki.

 

Recasted from General Discussion.

OP's info is nice, but I  think 150 runs is still a fairly small sample size for trying to accrurately reverse engineer the vault drop tables for a wiki.  It is  a great start though.

 

 

I'm curious if the OP has any info on which keys were used to unlock the vault.  That would be useful for people who want to open vaults solo because clanmates aren't on and they don't want to deal with radom pubs.   My personal experience is that extinguished is frequently the key, but I haven't done the type of necessary analysis to confirm or deny my suspicion.  I still doubt that DE set the vault keys at 25/25/25/25

Edited July 27, 2014 by GeneralArmchair

[(PSN)SancticuS]

 

 

I still doubt that DE set the vault keys at 25/25/25/25

 

Anything else would greatly surprise me. Why on earth would they make it uneven?

[Darzk]

Also, always to note, that 150 runs is still a small drop in the ocean that is meaningful RNG statistics but a very nice start indeed.

True. A sample size this small doesn't really tell us anything definitively. OP's results have like a +/- 5% confidence interval for each mod. Nonetheless it's a great report of that particular person's experience with RNG.

 

The only statement we can make from these results is that Spoiled Strike appears to have a fairly common drop rate compared to the average. Everything else is too close to tell. Blind Rage (3.33% +/- 3.78%) has no relevant difference in drop rate compared to Vicious Spread (8% +/- 5.71%). 

Edited July 28, 2014 by Darzk

[Naftal]

 

The only statement we can make from these results is that Spoiled Strike appears to have a fairly common drop rate compared to the average.

Yes, these results say so. I've however got only one Spoiled Strike ever and done dozens of runs, probably close to a hundred, and got multiple of all other mods.

 

And I think I've got Tainted Clip the most, while it's tied with the rarest one on these results.

[GeneralArmchair]

Anything else would greatly surprise me. Why on earth would they make it uneven?

Because they're DE and they have one of the world's worst track records with anything RNG.  They have completely forgotten to include mods and prime parts in drop tables on multiple occasions (and encrypted the drop tables because they got fed up with the community having concrete evidence when they called DE out on their BS with their "RNG is RNG, everything is working as intended" responses.)

 

If they feel that one key's debuff is least unpleasant and most likely to be used by a solo player, then reducing that key's liklihood of use is exactly the sort of thing they would do.

[Darealslenderman]

Nice Job very helpfull on the percentage of finding on corrupted mods.