Lyravain Posted July 23, 2017 Share Posted July 23, 2017 35 minutes ago, RAZORLIGHT said: yeah well guys... Suppose there are 10 balls in a bucket numbered as follows: 1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 4, 4, 5, 6, and 6. A single ball is randomly chosen from the bucket. What is the probability of drawing a ball numbered 1? There are 2 ways to draw a 1, since there are two balls numbered 1. The total possible number of outcomes is 10, since there are 10 balls. The probability of drawing a 1 is the ratio 2/10 = 1/5. http://www.mathleague.com/index.php/about-the-math-league/mathreference?id=81 Go to a random dice-rolling app (or site) and roll a 1D10 (that is, a single dice with ten sides). See the space between 10s (or any other arbitrarily-chosen number). While the chance each time you roll remains 1 out of 10 (10%) you might very well NOT get any specific number once every 10 rolls. Heck, confirm this yourself with just one coin; flip it several times. It won't land once on heads and once on tails, repeating the pattern ad infinitum. Some times, it'll land 4 times in a row on heads before getting a tails. You are just using the wrong kind of math process for this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Navarc Posted July 23, 2017 Share Posted July 23, 2017 This is fitting for the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miser_able Posted July 23, 2017 Share Posted July 23, 2017 I got a question, for those that did the math. Is there a number of relics you can do where the probability would be about 100%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heckzu Posted July 23, 2017 Share Posted July 23, 2017 25 minutes ago, Miser_able said: I got a question, for those that did the math. Is there a number of relics you can do where the probability would be about 100%? Depends on how close to 100% that you consider as "about 100%", as it will never converge at 100%. To get at least a 99% chance to succeed at least once, you need log0.9(1-0.99) = 43.7... or 44 trials. To get at least a 99.9% chance to succeed at least once, you need log0.9(1-0.999) = 65.6... or 66 trials. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GLTHX Posted July 23, 2017 Share Posted July 23, 2017 2 hours ago, RAZORLIGHT said: So, today i opened 10! Axi A2 radiant relics and havent got a single Aklex Prime Link (radiant drop rate = 10%) If my math is correct i should have gotten atleast one aklex prime link guaranteed. Spoiler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chipputer Posted July 23, 2017 Share Posted July 23, 2017 Another example of someone not understanding RNG saying that the given rates are a lie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidJames Posted July 23, 2017 Share Posted July 23, 2017 Come back when you've opened 1000 of the same relic, then we can talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RAZORLIGHT Posted July 24, 2017 Author Share Posted July 24, 2017 sorry guys you are all right, after all that grind yesterday my brain was #*($%%@ up :> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raegbund Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 9 hours ago, RAZORLIGHT said: sorry guys you are all right, after all that grind yesterday my brain was #*($%%@ up :> The grind can drive anyone crazy. I know I was going nuts during the harrow farm. Sometimes feels like the game is against you, but you must sacrifice yourself to the fires of the RNG gods, and even then they may not be satiated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k05h Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 On 23.7.2017 at 9:11 PM, Heckzu said: It seems you have no comprehension of probability. He is not alone. I decided to build a small online calculator to calculate the probability of getting items. Would you mind checking the maths: http://wfsoc.larshaendler.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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