Noticed pity systems were added to various farms since I last played, is it time to add a pity system to rerolling rivens?

[TARINunit9]

2 hours ago, PublikDomain said:

Forgot to reply to this - they list Total Online and Traders Online, not offline users.

Not what I meant

Market claims as of this writing, 18k traders online. Compare to SteamCharts 36k players online

If Market really does have half of Warframe's entire playerbase using its system right now, that would be VERY impressive. But there's an alternative theory that makes it very unimpressive: that the vast, vast majority of those 18k traders aren't active traders. They signed up for Market months or years ago for a single trade and haven't used it since, and Market continues to count them as "traders" anyway to inflate its numbers.

I find this theory more likely because of that very same Arcane Guardian example you posted. Of the two four six... 29 people supposedly trading Arcane Guardian right this very minute, a whole bunch of them have their offers listed at very old prices, not adjusted for years of gentle inflation. On top of that, there are hundreds of Offline offers for accounts that DO play Warframe actively, but very obviously haven't traded a single item in years, further implying Market has very bad user retention compared to the game itself.

2 hours ago, PublikDomain said:

Right, Scott's balance stance. We can't have stat-locking on Rivens because they'd be too powerful. 16:33-ish? But it's a self-defeating stance and always has been. God rolls already exist. Game-breaking Rivens already exist. Anyone can get one whenever they want via trade. Disposition already exists, and the entire point of that mechanic is to counter Rivens being too powerful. And Scott's "what we'd have to create to actually fight against that" that would be "absolutely insane" is already in the game in the form of mechanics like Damage Attenuation. Which has failed to be a successful balancing tool and is soon to be adjusted again - because you cannot balance with RNG. The randomness doesn't "keep the balance in check" like Scott suggests, it makes the balance harder - if not impossible.

These are all very good concerns, and if the topic of debate was game balance I would be very much in agreement with you. Indeed, OP's original topic was regarding pity systems specifically to balance Rivens

You and I however are debating a partly-related question: "do Rivens represent a significant source of DE's revenue?" I argue they do not.

My thesis continues to be: Rivens are a very difficult sell because they can't even be accessed until late in the game's progression system; and when they are accessed, there are multiple layers of separation between the trading of Rivens and money actually being deposited into DE's wallet. I find it very likely Rivens are a marginal source of income at best; I believe the hypothetical player who says "I want to trade for rare end-game items, therefore I will buy large quantities of platinum" is vanishingly rare. I find it more likely that Prime Packs, Heirloom Packs, Beginner's Packs, deluxe skins, and partnerships with Amazon (via Twitch) and Epic Games represent a much more substantial part of DE's income

Presenting this thesis was literally the only reason I joined this thread. Among the people who DO believe Rivens are lucrative, they also argue Rivens are badly-balanced (overpowered) and inconvenient (lacking stat-locking and pity systems) on purpose to drive more sales. I argue this notion is absurd. On top of my disagreement Rivens are lucrative, I subscribe to the alternative theory why Rivens are badly balanced and inconvenient: it was a mistake. DE aren't deliberately building a market around Rivens to fleece players of money, they just have this one instance of bad game design that whales built their own economy around

Edited October 1, 2023 by TARINunit9

[(XBOX)Deputy Facepain]

I can’t see it happening. Rivens will always be a crap shoot. I’d like an option for getting Kuva back out of rolled rivens that never became anything good. I don’t need endo, its too easy to get these days. But I doubt even that will ever happen either. 🤷🏻‍♂️

[PublikDomain]

3 hours ago, TARINunit9 said:

But there's an alternative theory that makes it very unimpressive: that the vast, vast majority of those 18k traders aren't active traders. They signed up for Market months or years ago for a single trade and haven't used it since, and Market continues to count them as "traders" anyway to inflate its numbers.

Then you're more than welcome to prove it. Back your assertions up.

Until then, the stats provided by a trusted and well-established community-run site are more than adequate to see that yes, ingame trade is big.

3 hours ago, TARINunit9 said:

You and I however are debating a partly-related question: "do Rivens represent a significant source of DE's revenue?" I argue they do not.

My thesis continues to be: Rivens are a very difficult sell because they can't even be accessed until late in the game's progression system; and when they are accessed, there are multiple layers of separation between the trading of Rivens and money actually being deposited into DE's wallet. I find it very likely Rivens are a marginal source of income at best; I believe the hypothetical player who says "I want to trade for rare end-game items, therefore I will buy large quantities of platinum" is vanishingly rare. I find it more likely that Prime Packs, Heirloom Packs, Beginner's Packs, deluxe skins, and partnerships with Amazon (via Twitch) and Epic Games represent a much more substantial part of DE's income

Presenting this thesis was literally the only reason I joined this thread. Among the people who DO believe Rivens are lucrative, they also argue Rivens are badly-balanced (overpowered) and inconvenient (lacking stat-locking and pity systems) on purpose to drive more sales. I argue this notion is absurd. On top of my disagreement Rivens are lucrative, I subscribe to the alternative theory why Rivens are badly balanced and inconvenient: it was a mistake. DE aren't deliberately building a market around Rivens to fleece players of money, they just have this one instance of bad game design that whales built their own economy around

And I would generally agree with you here, with a few exceptions:

• Rivens can be acquired right after TWW, which nowadays isn't even halfway in. You can begin to access Rivens before you've even completed the Starchart. They are not difficult to access.
• Bad Rivens are difficult to sell, but that's only because few people buy bad Rivens. If you have a good Riven and are flexible with your pricing, selling Rivens is trivial and very lucrative. They are not difficult to buy or sell (though the lack of good trade tools certainly hasn't helped).
• "Rivens do/don't make DE money" are true statements at face value, but both are gross oversimplifications and ignore the role trade has in the ingame economy. Rivens are one important part of the larger ingame economy, and that economy serves a very important role in DE's overall monetization.

I don't even disagree with the idea that DE is reluctant to change them for balance reasons. It's one or the other or maybe a little bit of both. Either:

• DE won't touch Rivens because they don't want to risk changing the economic activity these items produce.
  and/or
• DE won't touch Rivens because they think balancing them with RNG is good enough.

But both are flawed. The former because it assumes that any change will immediately result in economic doom, and the latter because DE has tried relying on RNG to balance the game and has failed and failed and failed and failed some more. DE opting to leave "bad game design" in place instead of turning it into good game design would be even worse.

Edited October 2, 2023 by PublikDomain

[TARINunit9]

2 hours ago, PublikDomain said:

Rivens can be acquired right after TWW, which nowadays isn't even halfway in. You can begin to access Rivens before you've even completed the Starchart. They are not difficult to access.

"Halfway" is proportional, but the hours required don't decrease

The two paragraphs below that though, we've definitely reached a consensus. You articulated a position I don't disagree with very well. 

Spoiler

2 hours ago, PublikDomain said:

Then you're more than welcome to prove it. Back your assertions up.

I mean...

6 hours ago, TARINunit9 said:

Of the two four six... 29 people supposedly trading Arcane Guardian right this very minute, a whole bunch of them have their offers listed at very old prices, not adjusted for years of gentle inflation. On top of that, there are hundreds of Offline offers for accounts that DO play Warframe actively, but very obviously haven't traded a single item in years, further implying Market has very bad user retention compared to the game itself.

...I think I already did

 

[PublikDomain]

1 hour ago, TARINunit9 said:

"Halfway" is proportional, but the hours required don't decrease

It's like what, 6-8hrs in? In a game where people regularly play for thousands?

1 hour ago, TARINunit9 said:

...I think I already did

I don't think "people don't always have low prices" is really proving anything other than that prices on the market aren't fixed. The highest price right now for a Guardian is 600p for an R5, which is ~28 ea. That's high, but is the seller some offline account that hasn't traded in years? No, the seller is an L3 with rep as recently as August. And sure enough, they're online right now.

And like you know that to show as Online In Game you need to be online and in the game, right? It checks your Steam profile to see if you're actually online and ingame. You can try it yourself to see. If you're not it'll set you back to Offline. It'll even say the last time you were seen online.

Edited October 2, 2023 by PublikDomain

[TARINunit9]

4 hours ago, PublikDomain said:

And like you know that to show as Online In Game you need to be online and in the game, right?

My point is, does Market have any way to prove they players it lists as "online" are actually TRADERS? And didn't just sign up to throw one WTS five years ago that never got any hits, never touched the site again, but still get listed on Market's website?

I know that question sounds loaded, but I promise I'm like 60% sincere with it because being proven wrong would be interesting, it would involve some interesting mechanics on Market's part

4 hours ago, PublikDomain said:

It's like what, 6-8hrs in?

Couple-a WEEKS, dude. Weeks real-time, at least; the game actively fights against you going from Vor's Prize to War Within in a single sitting (Ceres junction alone used to have an 80 hour timegate). Even if you're getting taxi'd, Trinity specter can add several days worth of grind to the newbies

Like I'm looking at the list of missions and junctions between a new customer and Rivens. If you, as in you personally were on a brand-new account with your clone running your normal account to taxi yourself through everything, I could see you beating War Within after six hours.

But I don't think someone who can do that is a new customer

[(XBOX)ECCHO SIERRA]

20 hours ago, Hobie-wan said:

Says the person who wrote:

Ok then.

Also, asking trade chat for a 'value' of something is laughable.

 

>asking trade chat for the value of something is laughable 

Okay so you act like rivens arent useful or worth anything if the dispo is low or might get lowered and when i point out that isnt true, your response is "no i dont wanna hear it my mind is made up"?

[Hobie-wan]

2 minutes ago, (XBOX)ECCHO SIERRA said:

>asking trade chat for the value of something is laughable 

Okay so you act like rivens arent useful or worth anything if the dispo is low or might get lowered and when i point out that isnt true, your response is "no i dont wanna hear it my mind is made up"?

Look, I said that people advocating for locking a stat would be shooting themselves in the foot because it would end up causing the disposition to be lowered. Sure they might be useful still, but if they'll be more special and useful if they aren't lowered. I'm not sure why you seem to want them to not be as good.

Note that I just play what rivens I get. I roll them a little bit, but not tons like people obsessed with "god rolls". If I get one and I can make it worth slotting over a normal mod, great. If not, not big deal. I'm always sitting at the max of 180 rivens and sometimes just melt ones I'm probably never going to use to make space instead of going through the hassle of trying to guess a value and then spend hours trying to sell them in trade chat. I don't care about the plat and it's not a good use of my time. But when I do get one for a weapon I actually use, it'd be nice if it's more useful if I get a roll that includes a useful stat. I'd rather it's better when one does show up than watered down because I was able to lock something down.

But anyway, clearly your mind is made up too so this is pointless. And DE isn't going to lock anything down anyway.

[(XBOX)ECCHO SIERRA]

3 hours ago, Hobie-wan said:

Look, I said that people advocating for locking a stat would be shooting themselves in the foot because it would end up causing the disposition to be lowered. Sure they might be useful still, but if they'll be more special and useful if they aren't lowered. I'm not sure why you seem to want them to not be as good.

Note that I just play what rivens I get. I roll them a little bit, but not tons like people obsessed with "god rolls". If I get one and I can make it worth slotting over a normal mod, great. If not, not big deal. I'm always sitting at the max of 180 rivens and sometimes just melt ones I'm probably never going to use to make space instead of going through the hassle of trying to guess a value and then spend hours trying to sell them in trade chat. I don't care about the plat and it's not a good use of my time. But when I do get one for a weapon I actually use, it'd be nice if it's more useful if I get a roll that includes a useful stat. I'd rather it's better when one does show up than watered down because I was able to lock something down.

But anyway, clearly your mind is made up too so this is pointless. And DE isn't going to lock anything down anyway.

"But the dispo would be lowered if you could stat lock" doesnt hold any water whatsoever when you consider that many weapons are already at bottomed out dispo. 

Nevermind that:

1) Riven dispo is always subject to being lowered regardless

2) being minimum dispo doesnt make a riven unusable or bar it from being valuable

3) that you cant even tell me with any certainty whatsoever that stat locking would lower any dispo for any particular weapon because you would be able to do this for every weapon, if you could only stat lock idk, say tiberon rivens and nothing else you might have a point but that isnt the case

4) on top of that, youre ignoring the layers upon layers of RNG that get in the way of a good roll now vs what wed be able to do if we were to have some sort of pity system or stat lock. Do you have 2 buffs or 3? Do you get a neg? What buffs, are they actually useful or irrelevant or actively bad like + zoom? What neg if you get a neg at all? Oh what are the grades? 

 

I dont give a rip about how "special" they are. Just because something subjectively feels "special" doesnt mean the system couldnt be better designed. 

 

You could roll a riven 300 times and still have a mid to trash roll. I dont see a reason it has to be that way.

 

[Qriist]

On 2023-09-30 at 7:03 PM, TARINunit9 said:

Visiting their website, I'd like to know how their numbers are being calculated.

Presumably it's people who have an active data connection to the site on the left followed by the subset of people who have active posts on the right. It probably doesn't count people who have set themselves to invisible.

 

[TARINunit9]

31 minutes ago, Qriist said:

Presumably it's people who have an active data connection to the site on the left followed by the subset of people who have active posts on the right.

Right, so how do they define "active"?

[Qriist]

12 minutes ago, TARINunit9 said:

Right, so how do they define "active"?

Probably people with the page open in a browser and/or online via Alecaframe.

[TARINunit9]

47 minutes ago, Qriist said:

Probably people with the page open in a browser and/or online via Alecaframe.

Certainly possible, I won't deny, but don't forget: the site links to Steam accounts. I find it equally possible "Online" just means "logged into Steam"

[PublikDomain]

17 hours ago, TARINunit9 said:

My point is, does Market have any way to prove they players it lists as "online" are actually TRADERS? And didn't just sign up to throw one WTS five years ago that never got any hits, never touched the site again, but still get listed on Market's website?

If they're logged in to the site then yeah I think they're traders? It even separates people by traders and by people just online. If you threw one WTS five years ago and never used it again you'd be marked offline (and not be included in the "online" tallies, y'know since you're not online) and your profile would say you were last seen 5 years ago. So yes, they're quite clearly tracking these stats. And either they just count the number of people online and stick it in the site footer because it's a neat stat, or there's some grand conspiracy afoot to artificially inflate their numbers in order to... whatever it is you're suggesting.

17 hours ago, TARINunit9 said:

Couple-a WEEKS, dude. Weeks real-time, at least; the game actively fights against you going from Vor's Prize to War Within in a single sitting (Ceres junction alone used to have an 80 hour timegate). Even if you're getting taxi'd, Trinity specter can add several days worth of grind to the newbies

Like I'm looking at the list of missions and junctions between a new customer and Rivens. If you, as in you personally were on a brand-new account with your clone running your normal account to taxi yourself through everything, I could see you beating War Within after six hours.

But I don't think someone who can do that is a new customer

 

That's not weeks of active, dedicated effort. It's weeks of mostly doing nothing while timers tick down. Though I double-checked my recorded NPE playthrough and I was wrong, my bad, it took me 16 total hours to complete TWW not 8. That's grinding specters, grinding Prosecutors for two hours, doing all the crafting, doing everything solo, with no taxis or outside help or money spent. So yes, it would take you WEEKS to get there if you only played the game an hour a day. And in a game that's been around for ten years, a few weeks is nothing. Rivens aren't endgame items anymore and haven't been for years.

[TARINunit9]

2 hours ago, PublikDomain said:

If they're logged in to the site then yeah I think they're traders? It even separates people by traders and by people just online. If you threw one WTS five years ago and never used it again you'd be marked offline (and not be included in the "online" tallies, y'know since you're not online) and your profile would say you were last seen 5 years ago. So yes, they're quite clearly tracking these stats. And either they just count the number of people online and stick it in the site footer because it's a neat stat, or there's some grand conspiracy afoot to artificially inflate their numbers in order to... whatever it is you're suggesting.

OK so here's my logic:

I've checked a list of "online" vs "offline" people for certain arcanes, and the game DOES hide traders who haven't played the game in more than seven days. It even tells you how long since the person has logged into Warframe. The reason for this is obvious and benign, they don't want to clog the page with people who haven't signed onto Warframe since 2018

What Market does NOT tell you, is how old the trade offer itself is. This is a very conspicuous omission. Even if you get a person who last logged in two hours ago, you get no guarantee they haven't already sold the item four days ago (if everything is on the level) or gave up on selling it four weeks/months/years ago (if they're padding their numbers with idle accounts)

 

2 hours ago, PublikDomain said:

That's not weeks of active, dedicated effort. It's weeks of mostly doing nothing while timers tick down. Though I double-checked my recorded NPE playthrough and I was wrong, my bad, it took me 16 total hours to complete TWW not 8. That's grinding specters, grinding Prosecutors for two hours, doing all the crafting, doing everything solo, with no taxis or outside help or money spent. So yes, it would take you WEEKS to get there if you only played the game an hour a day. And in a game that's been around for ten years, a few weeks is nothing. Rivens aren't endgame items anymore and haven't been for years

Again, you're a veteran. New players aren't going to know the fastest way to get War Within done.

More importantly, weeks isn't a long time to a veteran player. But it's an eternity to a customer in the context of a sale. DE doesn't target their sales to be made weeks after someone starts playing, they target them to players still downloading the game

Edited October 3, 2023 by TARINunit9

[Goldenrice]

the game is 10+ years old.

 

Imo, the rerolling aspect of rivens is long overdue for a change.

 

Give the players a progress bar.  Let's not leave all of it up to the RNG gods.  

 

I