"Should I Keep This Riven?" and "What Traits Do I Want"? Answered for Every Single Weapon and Trait (Trading)

[-ChaosNyx-]

Hey everyone!

I've created a handy spreadsheet to help you navigate the world of Riven trading in Warframe. Whether you're a new player or a seasoned trader, this tool is designed to make your life easier.

Check out the spreadsheet here:   🚀  📈 🚀  Warframe Riven Trading Spreadsheet   🚀  📈 🚀

Spreadsheet Last Updated: 07/10/2024
Current Status: Working. Some slight kinks here and there, but the vast majority is good.

Quick Guide for New Riven Traders:

Step 1: Start with the Rank
Look up your Riven’s weapon in the spreadsheet and check the “Rank” column. A lower rank means it’s more valuable and easier to sell. As a general rule, ranks between 1 and 100 are good indicators of a solid Riven.

Step 2: Traits Matter
Scroll to the right side of the spreadsheet to see the “Positive” and “Negative” traits. These are colour-coded and scored to show how desirable each trait is. This helps you understand what’s worth keeping and what’s not.

Step 3: Estimate the Price
You’ll see two main price columns: Avg List ($) and Avg Trade ($).

• Avg List ($): Predicted average listing price, calculated using a machine learning model, trained on the marketplace listings.
• Avg Trade ($): The actual average trade price from developer data.

Use these to get a base idea of your Riven’s value. If the Avg List ($) is lower than the Avg Trade ($), that might mean the weapon is undervalued, or that most successful trades are happening with better rolls than usual. If the Avg List ($) is higher than the Avg Trade ($), it could mean sellers are overestimating its worth, or that it’s a less desirable item on the market.

Step 4: Liquidity Check
The “Liquidity” column shows how popular the weapon is compared to the most traded weapon. Higher liquidity means the Riven is more likely to sell faster.

 

Understanding the Spreadsheet:

The spreadsheet is divided into two main sections:

Left Side – Weapon Overview:

• Name: The weapon's name.
• Group: The type of weapon (e.g., Rifle, Shotgun).
• Rank: Based on the average listing price; lower ranks are better.
• Avg List ($): Predicted average listing price from the machine learning model.
• Avg Trade ($): Actual average trade price from developer data.
• Liquidity: Popularity of the weapon relative to the most traded weapon. For example, 34% liquidity means it sells 34 times for every 100 times the most popular weapon sells. This also should be used to tell you how confident you can be about the Avg Trade ($) figure.
• Popular Variant: The most commonly used version of the weapon.
• Disposition: The Riven disposition of the most popular variant.
• Incarnon: Indicates whether the weapon has an Incarnon variant (True/False).

Right Side – Trait Analysis:

• Positive Traits:
  • Lists the desirable attributes your Riven can have.
  • Each trait has a score indicating its value—higher is better.
  • Colour-coded for easy reference.
• Negative Traits:
  • Lists the desirable attributes for the negative slot.
  • Also scored and colour-coded.

 

For Those Who Want to Dive Deeper:

• Machine Learning Model:

  • The model predicts Riven prices based on marketplace listings.
  • It assumes that the supply of Rivens corresponds directly to how they are generated in-game.

• Understanding Scores:

  • Trait scores are derived from how much they affect the Riven's market price.
  • This helps you identify which traits make a Riven more valuable.

• Disposition Matters:

  • A weapon's Riven disposition impacts how powerful the Riven can be.
  • Higher disposition means the Riven has a stronger effect on the weapon's stats.

• Market Dynamics:

  • Sometimes, results may defy common sense due to market trends.
  • For example, critical chance might still be highly valued on weapons where it's not as effective

 

Additional Resources:

• GitHub Repository:

  • Interested in the tools behind the spreadsheet? Want to get an actual value for your Riven? Python experience required.
  • Check out the GitHub repo here: Warframe Marketplace Predictor
  • Or checkout this forum post to get a glimpse: Tool Discussion and Demo

 

I hope this spreadsheet helps make your Riven trading easier and more profitable. If you have any questions or feedback, feel free to leave a comment. Happy trading!

Edited 8 hours ago by -ChaosNyx-
yet another overhaul

[kulfii]

omg im so early 

 

[Zakkhar]

11 minutes ago, -ChaosNyx- said:

Hope this alleviates a lot of stress, particularly for new players who I see constantly asking these questions.

It doesnt and it wont. There are similar tools to this available online eg. Semlar, but that would require investing some time & energy and getting a little bit knowledge to understand what information is given and what it means. Making a thread and asking is much easier. This way someone will always do all the work for them.

[dwqrf]

il y a 13 minutes, -ChaosNyx- a dit :

 machine learning model

Is it based on the actual individual weapon performance or the average pricing for such stats ?

[Zakkhar]

2 minutes ago, dwqrf said:

the actual individual weapon performance or the average pricing for such stats

Neither. Trade chat stat popularity. So basically garbage.

18 minutes ago, -ChaosNyx- said:

he model is trained on marketplace listings, some results might go against common sense. For example, Critical Chance and Critical Damage still rank at the top for the Nukor. It’s a funny little example of the difference between the riven's practicality and dogmatic trading philosophy (i.e. crit always good).

 

[dwqrf]

il y a 1 minute, Zakkhar a dit :

Neither. Trade chat stat popularity

Right.

Wouldn't trade chat stat popularity also reflect somehow the ideal stats for weapon performance to some extent ?

Considering a really high sample...

[-ChaosNyx-]

5 minutes ago, dwqrf said:

Is it based on the actual individual weapon performance or the average pricing for such stats ?

I grabbed 200,000 auctions from the Warframe Marketplace. I trained an ML model on these auctions directly. This means the model is exposed to the individual listings, the name of the weapon, the traits, re rolls, etc and of course the price they listed it for.

[Traumtulpe]

You could just say, apart from niche exceptions, guns want multishot, crit chance and crit damage, and melees want critical chance, critical damage, attack speed and range.

Base damage is always nice to have but not a priority.

Elements are hit or miss, you have to decide yourself whether or not the given elements on your riven work for you or not.

[kulfii]

yall dont get the point of the sheet, also if you dont like it then theres no need to use it if "theres better options" no need to hate on someone whos experimenting and trying to help

[Zakkhar]

2 minutes ago, Traumtulpe said:

melees want critical chance, critical damage, attack speed and range.

Crit chance is highly overbudget/overrated on most melees considering there is already Blood Rush, Sac Steel and Melee Animosity. Also Melee Influence builds completely ignore it.

5 minutes ago, Traumtulpe said:

Base damage is always nice to have but not a priority.

Base damage is also highy overbudget due to CO, gun CO and arcanes. TTo the pointt many Primary builds complete drop Serration.

I think in order to appraise a Riven properly you need to 1. Know the most meta build(s) of the weapon 2. Know whether riven goes in flex slot or has to replace one of the mandatory slots. 

 

[-ChaosNyx-]

7 minutes ago, Zakkhar said:

Neither. Trade chat stat popularity. So basically garbage.

 

I can understand your immediate reaction to calling it garbage. However, when you look through the auctions one by one… they're still garbage, haha. However, this is because it's the result of countless people operating in a speculative market. The model aims to capture the underlying patterns and in turn reduce the noise. In so few words, while any small sample of listings is usually ridiculous, if you get enough, then useful patterns emerge which reveal how people tend to value rivens in the market.

[Zakkhar]

Just now, kulfii said:

no need to hate on someone whos experimenting and trying to help

Nobodyy is hating on the person. All am saying is that it doesnt reflect actual useful stats and most people who could  use it, wont.

[kulfii]

the sheet is made for making plat selling what people want not really for using the rivens, and yes calling it garbage instead of trying to talk first is kinda hating ngl

[-ChaosNyx-]

I have updated the title as there may have been a discrepancy in what I was discussing. My guide is in reference to people who are trying to make money off rivens. This is definitely (somehow) a wildly different thing to what actually is a good riven.

[Zakkhar]

2 minutes ago, -ChaosNyx- said:

The model aims to capture the underlying patterns and in turn reduce the noise. In so few words, while any small sample of listings is usually ridiculous, if you get enough, then useful patterns emerge which reveal how people tend to value rivens in the market.

Not really. People in general have no idea about rivens and just pretend to know or take someone else word for it. The aim of the auctions is not to sell best rivens, but to make most plat on them. That is why shiny stats like crit and %dmg are so popular. 

[Traumtulpe]

1 minute ago, Zakkhar said:

Crit chance is highly overbudget/overrated on most melees considering there is already Blood Rush, Sac Steel and Melee Animosity. Also Melee Influence builds completely ignore it. [...] Base damage is also highy overbudget due to CO, gun CO and arcanes.

Critical chance is an excellent stat for heavy attacks, wheras attack speed is an excellent stat for light attacks. Due to Tennokai you can use both at the same time. Anyhow, crit is *not* overbudgeted, in part because crit can ignore certain types of damage attenuation.

Melee Influence builds do not ignore crit (except in niche exceptions).

You are not going to proc every enemy up for CO, having base damage on your weapon comes in handy to keep the trash killing effective. Also gun CO is oftentimes multiplicative to base damage. Having some is never bad, though not a priority either, just like I said.

[Zakkhar]

7 minutes ago, kulfii said:

yes calling it garbage instead of trying to talk first is kinda hating ngl

Not hating and not on the author. There is nothing to talk, I see what he wrote, I can see the stats resulted from that. I can judge for myself checking some popular weapons and the listed stats prio for them, considering I happen to know the meta builds.

Also It (at least i did not notice) doesnt list most iomportant thing, of how good/popular is the weapon, what is the current dispo, which strongly affect the riven price. You can get a god roll for niche weapon/with low dispo and it will still be harder and cheaper to sell than any roll for meta weapon/high dispo. 

Edited September 19 by Zakkhar

[dwqrf]

il y a 1 minute, kulfii a dit :

the sheet is made for making plat selling what people want not really for using the rivens, and yes calling it garbage instead of trying to talk first is kinda hating ngl

That wasn't hate toward the OP or the post, though. He just corrected my wrong understanding with a meaningful word I could understand straight away, which I did.

The post refer to plat making, and not riven power on specific weapon. From a point of view a of theorybuilder, yes, it's not really interesting. From a point of view of a Riven flipper, it will work just fine.

[-ChaosNyx-]

19 minutes ago, Zakkhar said:

Not hating and not on the author. There is nothing to talk, I see what he wrote, I can see the stats resulted from that. I can judge for myself checking some popular weapons and the listed stats prio for them, considering I happen to know the meta builds.

Also It (at least i did not notice) doesnt list most iomportant thing, of how good/popular is the weapon, what is the current dispo, which strongly affect the riven price. You can get a god roll for niche weapon/with low dispo and it will still be harder and cheaper to sell than any roll for meta weapon/high dispo. 

I must reiterate:

25 minutes ago, -ChaosNyx- said:

I have updated the title as there may have been a discrepancy in what I was discussing. My guide is in reference to people who are trying to make money off rivens. This is definitely (somehow) a wildly different thing to what actually is a good riven.

To address your points.

I found the popularity of the weapon, which is available from the developers, to be less useful than the calculated expected value (which is how the weapon names are sorted). Granted, I could add it as some additional liquidity metric.

It is intuitive that the quality of the weapon as well as its disposition should influence the price of the rivens. I suppose I would say that the advantage of a model training on the entire market is you are assuming it picks up on these underlying patterns as well as many more that you may not consider. Meaning that these qualities get baked into its predictions (which is what derives the statistics).

I am more than happy to explain myself further or hear any more points you have.

[-ChaosNyx-]

46 minutes ago, Traumtulpe said:

You could just say, apart from niche exceptions, guns want multishot, crit chance and crit damage, and melees want critical chance, critical damage, attack speed and range.

Base damage is always nice to have but not a priority.

Elements are hit or miss, you have to decide yourself whether or not the given elements on your riven work for you or not.

Yeah, totally agree, and that philosophy did serve me quite well for a while. However, I did notice that there were still niche exceptions as you say, and an anxiety that persisted not only for me, but definitely also for other people wanting to sell their rivens. The spreadsheet aims to fill in those gaps and give back some confidence. So that if you are holding any riven you can immediately get back A) What is its expected value, both absolutely and also in relation to every other riven and B) What exactly is the order of trait value, and are things like elementals desired or not for this weapon. This trait valuing is especially true for the negative, which a lot of new players struggle with.

[-ChaosNyx-]

51 minutes ago, dwqrf said:

Right.

Wouldn't trade chat stat popularity also reflect somehow the ideal stats for weapon performance to some extent ?

Considering a really high sample...

I'd say to some extent yes. However, in trading, other factors like player enjoyment, hype, and such can play a massive role. So this is why when it came to predicting value in trading, I used actual listed trades rather than any more 'objective' measurement such as gun performance.

1 hour ago, Zakkhar said:

It doesnt and it wont. There are similar tools to this available online eg. Semlar, but that would require investing some time & energy and getting a little bit knowledge to understand what information is given and what it means. Making a thread and asking is much easier. This way someone will always do all the work for them.

Was this comment made under the knowledge the spreadsheet is targeted at trading and not gun performance?

[-ChaosNyx-]

43 minutes ago, Zakkhar said:

The aim of the auctions is not to sell best rivens, but to make most plat on them.

Which is also this goal, and hence why the data is relevant.

[(PSN)Madurai-Prime]

Thanks for making these, I'm also tired of seeing the same questions asked lol. 

"Is this riven good?"

"Why would +puncture +status duration -crit chance be any good?!" Lol

[Voltage]

This is a noble cause, but the thing you need to wrestle with is that auctions are all the Rivens that haven't sold. There is also no time limit on auctions, so players will just wait things out until the price reaches that predetermined price they had in their head that they were too insecure listing it for originally. There are also "fake" listings where players list their collection for a weird value and then some nonsense like "124356 = not for sale" on their profile. Lastly, Riven Mods will remain speculative as long as the nature of their randomization stays the same.

Finding out how optimal Riven value is worth is moreso being "in the know" with the Riven game. What I mean by this is being connected to other people so that before you list something, you get some speculative feedback before throwing your dart on the board for others to see. There are also the "Unrolleds" and "Grades" of Rivens to consider when pricing up stats. If you want to know whether the weapon you rolled the stats for is good, you should do your homework on what is the current meta, upcoming Prime Access, recently released content, or leaks for augments/weapons. What drives up price from a select weapon is because the item is new, established, or upcoming and yet to be revealed.

This chart is just a bunch of numbers, and it's not useless information, but it's not helpful for the kinds of questions you aim to answer. Riven Mods and their value are based mostly on "feel", and that's because of how the community has driven prices on things. The only thing datasets can show players for Riven pricing is what weapons are worth flipping unrolleds with to be quite honest.

And again, I think your posts as of late are interesting, but this approach doesn't address broader questions or issues players have with Riven Trading.

Edited September 19 by Voltage

[Karyst]

2 hours ago, -ChaosNyx- said:

Hello again… again,
 

Long story short, here ya go:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/137p81PRMbNJolNJMafDc5AsJ33JSfJgLE2v6phCbZSg/edit?gid=1019652886#gid=1019652886

The values come from a machine learning model, so while “multishot” isn't an actual attribute for Reaper Prime, the model had the freedom to pretend it was (makes you think, though). You can just ignore any erroneous entries like that as it does not impact the results. Also, since the model is trained on marketplace listings, some results might go against common sense. For example, Critical Chance and Critical Damage still rank at the top for the Nukor. It’s a funny little example of the difference between the riven's practicality and dogmatic trading philosophy (i.e. crit always good).

Hope this alleviates a lot of stress, particularly for new players who I see constantly asking these questions.

Here is a link to the GitHub, which houses all the tools used to generate the spreadsheet:
https://github.com/cjtho/warframe_marketplace_predictor

 

Price check https://imgur.com/a/O1VscPi