May 15Th: Hot Feedback Topics

[aa342256728]

May 18, about eleven fifty-eight, I xini brush Banshee Helmet drawings, but returned to the desktop of the game but did not get, I am very angry, this is my continuous efforts to get several days.Server actually ventilation directly to brush me gone

[ReiganCross]

Alright since nobody is understanding where I'm coming from I'll try to explain this in a much more simple manor.

 

Kid's will cry about anything. They sign up for a PvP match (even with consent), if they get 1-2 hit by an ult or by a hek or whatever, they will get frustrated. Without thinking they will try again therefore causing more frustration. The cycle will become never ending. I'm not saying that mature people will go off and cry about how OP something is, sure it could happen, but I'm more worried about the younger players of warframe. The ones who cannot restrain themselves from a rematch or whatever. THIS is why I am slightly worried. Yes this PvP thing has great potential, but at the same time I can see a few things that can go wrong, as I've already mentioned.

 

One other worry I have is that once this is introduced, who is to say that people will want full squad based PvP? The people who do will push for it and that could become a reality as well. 

 

I'm not stating these will happen instantly. I'm talking about later down the road.

 

Let me make your worries more powerful and awesome!... I have seen, here on the forums, people organizing Tournaments on the PvP... People will play with what you give them the way THEY want, and they will assign the value THEY want to. Just like WoW, there will be a lot of dudes harassing you and then going all "Ok, let's settle this with a duel" and the taunting the other dude, calling him names and stuff because he's chickening out of a fight. Dueling don't need rewards to become a stigma of "A dude that duels a lot" and "That guy who sucks at duels." Neither are Ranking necessary for it to go out of control, since you can just as easy record and write down your own record of the duels, just as with anything.

 

The Tournament thing is even more awesomely broken and problematic. You see, some guilds might hold the dueling system as a way of implementing rank and responsability inside your dojo. By that way, maybe the leader could be an A****** but he's a "respected" A****** that has won every duel he fought. Other guilds might hold the dueling system as, hell, a way of assiduity check, so not only you need to contribute "that much", you need to hold about 20 duels because that would, suposedly, keep you ready if they ever expand the PvP.

 

You just gave us the ability to hit eachother in the face and with it comes a WHOLE NEW LEVEL of game interaction... You have, essentially, opened the can. You're just trying to keep the smell from coming out.

[LordAsmolicious]

*coughTranshumanismcough*

Nuh-uh In my fair and honest opinion i say that i think that every 'Frame has their own Tenno  i recall (Fuzzy but still) trough hearsay that the Tenno were meant to be displayed as...Champions?  and Also not related to the former. Doesnt the Lotus always say that the Jackal is a danger to Tenno in the field? While we can take it down easily. wouldnt that make our Tenno something of the Elite amongst the Tenno? so to say... the best of the best?

[RunNGun]

That's not probability.  As time approaches infinity, all non-zero probabilities approach 100%.  You're not saying anything important.

 

Attaching the BP to a RNG, like the glaive or the plasma sword or any of the other Alert only BP when you can buy it for Plat is close to pay to win because the probabilities of getting the BP you need is increasingly low.  At least with the Glaive it was only the one blueprint; now you must find three DIFFERENT blueprints.  If you're like most people, you only have a few hours a day you can give to warframe; I have a job, a family, a community, and all sorts of other demands for my time.  You can say 'well just buy it with Plat', but at the cost of what most Frames are in plat, that's insulting.

 

I'm not really upset because 1) I have plenty of other things I can do in Warframe and 2) I recognize that DE needs to continue having a revenue stream and that founder's pack purchases can't go on forever.  Rebecca also stated they'll be much more common than the glaive in how often they appear; we shall see.

 

Regardless, the blatant dismissal by some of how people feel this makes the game more Pay to Win is the antithesis of helpful; the product is still in Beta and now is the time to voice concerns or suggestions.  Instead of trying to shut them up, just state your own opinion and move on.

 

Warframe has a lot of life left in it still, but that's no reason people shouldn't try to tell DE where they think they're going wrong.  Like telling them they'd sell more stuff for Plat if the prices were more impulse-purchase sized, I think the criticism is helpful.

 

If that is not probability, then what is probability exactly? How do you define probability?

True, as time approaches infinity, the chance of obtaining anything is 100%.

 

However, I maintain that the 1% cutoff line will happen before someone puts in 100 hours of playing time. You have to remember that the curve is a normal distribution, meaning that the vast majority of people will obtain all three BPs at some finite point in time, whether that be 30 hours, 50 hours, etc.

 

When I say time logged in, I mean total time logged in. Doesn't matter if you can only play 2 hours a day, you will eventually hit that 30 hour, 50 hour, or even 100 hour mark, although much later than say, someone who plays 4-6 hours a day.

 

You can take a look at the Glaive. Within the few weeks, it has dropped 3 times, i think, at three different times of the day. If a person has 4 hours of free time and checks twitter every 29 min or so, it is very likely that that person has already gotten the Glaive.

Vauban BPs will drop mroe frequently, but you have to have all three, so i claim that the chances of getting a Vauban would be the same as getting a glaive.

 

Edit: On your point about criticism, I agree that intelligent criticism is necessary, but misinformed criticism is the absolute worst.

 

i'm not bashing people for making criticism. I'm bashing them for not understanding these concepts before they blurt out their misinformed opinions.

 

Of course, I don't mean to say they're stupid, or worthless. It's just that they simply don't understand a concept they probably just never took the effort to learn.

 

I would like to believe that everyone is capable and deserving of respect.

Edited May 17, 2013 by RunNGun

[SilverBones]

Nuh-uh In my fair and honest opinion i say that i think that every 'Frame has their own Tenno  i recall (Fuzzy but still) trough hearsay that the Tenno were meant to be displayed as...Champions?  and Also not related to the former. Doesnt the Lotus always say that the Jackal is a danger to Tenno in the field? While we can take it down easily. wouldnt that make our Tenno something of the Elite amongst the Tenno? so to say... the best of the best?

 

Champions and Heroes they may be, that does not mean that they are vanilla humans under that beautifully engineered carapace.

 

I could go on about Tenno Transhumanism for daaaaayyyyyys, but your idea is just as viable as mine :)

 

EDIT: I should note in DevStream #4, they talked about how what laid beneath the Tenno exterior is not set in stone yet. It's all free game to speculate, sir!

Edited May 17, 2013 by SilverBones

[GTG3000]

Champions and Heroes they may be, that does not mean that they are vanilla humans under that beautifully engineered carapace.

 

I could go on about Tenno Transhumanism for daaaaayyyyyys, but your idea is just as viable as mine :)

 

EDIT: I should note in DevStream #4, they talked about how what laid beneath the Tenno exterior is not set in stone yet. It's all free game to speculate, sir!

 

They are vanilla tenno. ^^

 

And lotus is certainly an AI.

Edited May 17, 2013 by GTG3000

[Furyoushounen]

7.The Dojo! 1v1 Duels! PVP?

No, no Tenno. The Dueling Room in the upcoming Dojos is for 1v1 spars between clan members, a friendly duel. If a clan feels up to it, they can impose their own rules (i.e no powers, melee only!) , we will not be balancing any PvE elements of the game for this.

 

THANK GOD!!!!!!

 

[Judibigo]

When the friday update's come?

[GTG3000]

When the friday update's come?

 

Early sunday.

[Lumireaver]

I've been under the impression that the hostages in Rescue Missions are Tenno too. Tenno without 'frames wearing the same inner-suits we must be wearing to interface with our armor. If Tenno aren't being captured and studied then how are our powers being copied by Grineer and Corpus engineers? It also stands to reason that Tenno bear some kind of powers in addition to their 'Frames considering the hostages are kept alive after their "second skin," as I've heard it referred to by some Grineer boss, is removed.

 

All this stuff about Tenno mind-jacking robotic suits kind of conflicts with the whole "waking up from a cryopod" thing, not to mention the countless number of times the Warframes are referred to as suits or costumes by various bosses.

Edited May 17, 2013 by Lumireaver

[Juncboks]

If that is not probability, then what is probability exactly? How do you define probability?

True, as time approaches infinity, the chance of obtaining anything is 100%.

 

However, I maintain that the 1% cutoff line will happen before someone puts in 100 hours of playing time. You have to remember that the curve is a normal distribution, meaning that the vast majority of people will obtain all three BPs at some finite point in time, whether that be 30 hours, 50 hours, etc.

 

When I say time logged in, I mean total time logged in. Doesn't matter if you can only play 2 hours a day, you will eventually hit that 30 hour, 50 hour, or even 100 hour mark, although much later than say, someone who plays 4-6 hours a day.

 

You can take a look at the Glaive. Within the few weeks, it has dropped 3 times, i think, at three different times of the day. If a person has 4 hours of free time and checks twitter every 29 min or so, it is very likely that that person has already gotten the Glaive.

Vauban BPs will drop mroe frequently, but you have to have all three, so i claim that the chances of getting a Vauban would be the same as getting a glaive.

 

Edit: On your point about criticism, I agree that intelligent criticism is necessary, but misinformed criticism is the absolute worst.

 

i'm not bashing people for making criticism. I'm bashing them for not understanding these concepts before they blurt out their misinformed opinions.

 

Of course, I don't mean to say they're stupid, or worthless. It's just that they simply don't understand a concept they probably just never took the effort to learn.

 

I would like to believe that everyone is capable and deserving of respect.

I agree with his post completely. I would also like to say that the Glaive BP has actually dropped around 5 times... I have it and three BPs of it and missed one while I was out working. My hours of work are about 7 a day everyday, except the weekend. The Glaive Alerts happened at rather various times spread across the week and I was simply aware enough to grab them when I had the opportunity. I wasn't on every hour of every day, I have a job and a social life beyond that. If I'm able to gain something so easily I can't imagine someone else who is vigilant (because they actually WANT to get the item) will not also have the same luck at least with even just one of those Glaive BPs. It doesn't take playing for half the day every day, but simply about being vigilant to what you want and taking it the moment you can. And the Glaive was only out for a couple weeks; that's a lot of drops... especially if Vauban is going to be even less rare.

Edited May 17, 2013 by Juncboks

[ArsVampyre]

If that is not probability, then what is probability exactly? How do you define probability?

True, as time approaches infinity, the chance of obtaining anything is 100%.

 

However, I maintain that the 1% cutoff line will happen before someone puts in 100 hours of playing time. You have to remember that the curve is a normal distribution, meaning that the vast majority of people will obtain all three BPs at some finite point in time, whether that be 30 hours, 50 hours, etc.

 

When I say time logged in, I mean total time logged in. Doesn't matter if you can only play 2 hours a day, you will eventually hit that 30 hour, 50 hour, or even 100 hour mark, although much later than say, someone who plays 4-6 hours a day.

 

You can take a look at the Glaive. Within the few weeks, it has dropped 3 times, i think, at three different times of the day. If a person has 4 hours of free time and checks twitter every 29 min or so, it is very likely that that person has already gotten the Glaive.

Vauban BPs will drop mroe frequently, but you have to have all three, so i claim that the chances of getting a Vauban would be the same as getting a glaive.

 

Edit: On your point about criticism, I agree that intelligent criticism is necessary, but misinformed criticism is the absolute worst.

 

i'm not bashing people for making criticism. I'm bashing them for not understanding these concepts before they blurt out their misinformed opinions.

 

Of course, I don't mean to say they're stupid, or worthless. It's just that they simply don't understand a concept they probably just never took the effort to learn.

 

I would like to believe that everyone is capable and deserving of respect.

Probabilities are estimates of potential occurrence   They're useless over an indeterminate number of instances so great that the 'curve' approaches a single flat plane where everyone has reached the event being measured.  I do understand your estimation, based on nothing, that by 100 hours of playtime 99% of people will have the three required blueprints.  Since we have nothing more than 'not as rare as reactors/catalysts' to go by, and as far as I know none of us know the probability of that occurring (though we could guess if someone went back and did the work on the alerts once they went to twitter) you really can't know.  You can't.  You're just spouting it out of nothing.

 

More to the point, people are more likely to measure their success in obtaining an item based on their time in real life spent waiting, not play time.  If it takes me 100 days to play 100 hours, that's a long wait.  If I am the sort of person with no job, out of school or work, who sleeps, then plays warframe 16 hours a day, that same 100 hours might be done in a week or two.  And worse, the blueprints might not occur during that time.  To my memory, it was at least a week or two before the first glaive opportunity; if these are as rare as that, it could be a significant amount of REAL time before people looking to make the frame could possibly do so, especially if the blueprints repeat rather than come up uniquely, which any truely random system is more likely to do (6/27 possible outcomes for the right order to get all three blueprints on the first three availabilities, assuming you don't miss any, means roughly 22% chance it'll even be possible before the blueprints repeat).

 

If they're only as rare as artifacts, that's likely not going to be too bad.  If they're as rare as weapon blueprints, then there's a substantial chance if you are available and get EVERY blueprint that you'll take a month or more for the necessary component blueprints.  It's not just that you need three blueprints, it's that you need three different blueprints. 

 

When so many people already have problems with the way the alert system works, is it really a good idea to make something as anticipated as this, which is being released supposedly to appease people waiting on update 8 who expected it by today dependant on that system with such likely rarity?  Worse, after the backlash over the unavailability of the frost-prime blueprints, and the glaive, does this show that DE really learned from the experience?  There's a reason DERebecca tweeted a picture of DEScott apologizing for making her job hard, and that's because they anticipate community backlash over this.

 

I want to make it clear; I am not advocating they change their decision. I would prefer another method, or higher probability than I expect for the release of the blueprints necessary, but I'm not going to stop supporting them or their game over it, and I'm not really complaining.  What I'm saying is that the complainers have a valid point of view, based on the same information available to you, that's just as likely as your own take (perhaps moreso, IMO) and that you're being dismissive of VALID and NECESSARY criticism.

 

I am not defending the opinion that the way this is being released is bad so much as I'm defending the need for people who feel that way to be able to say so without someone coming in and white-knighting for DE. I'm not defending anyone who's taking it or making it personal, but I haven't seen that.  I do freely admit that I can't possibly find the time to read every post, though.

 

And I do like a good debate. ;)

[pdxdubin]

 

7.The Dojo! 1v1 Duels! PVP?

No, no Tenno. The Dueling Room in the upcoming Dojos is for 1v1 spars between clan members, a friendly duel. If a clan feels up to it, they can impose their own rules (i.e no powers, melee only!) , we will not be balancing any PvE elements of the game for this.

 

 

 

 

Rebecca in the community a good idea has gone around, to balance the system.

 

 

Due to most frames having 1000 or so health on average.

 

some frames can just 1 shot us making the game unfun.

 

And some weapons could just kill us in seconds.

 

 

I think a way to make it "fun" without balancing anything.

 

Maybe we could change the % health we start out with in the duel?

 

Or maybe you could just make duelists have 10k health each in the match..

 

This way Excaliburs and ash's can have fun jumping around the map for more then 1 second before the enemy dies.

[LordAsmolicious]

Champions and Heroes they may be, that does not mean that they are vanilla humans under that beautifully engineered carapace.

 

I could go on about Tenno Transhumanism for daaaaayyyyyys, but your idea is just as viable as mine :)

 

EDIT: I should note in DevStream #4, they talked about how what laid beneath the Tenno exterior is not set in stone yet. It's all free game to speculate, sir!

That they arent fully Human i could understand. Genetically engineered Warriors?  Say modifying  certain amount of babies still in the womb so long ago to create children capable of feats normal children cant and then train them to be The Tenno, Masters of the WarFrame and from those Tenno a new generation of "Pure" Tenno came thus basically creating a "sub" Human race (or Sub Orokin race if thats what you prefer.)

[RunNGun]

Probabilities are estimates of potential occurrence   They're useless over an indeterminate number of instances so great that the 'curve' approaches a single flat plane where everyone has reached the event being measured.  I do understand your estimation, based on nothing, that by 100 hours of playtime 99% of people will have the three required blueprints.  Since we have nothing more than 'not as rare as reactors/catalysts' to go by, and as far as I know none of us know the probability of that occurring (though we could guess if someone went back and did the work on the alerts once they went to twitter) you really can't know.  You can't.  You're just spouting it out of nothing.

 

More to the point, people are more likely to measure their success in obtaining an item based on their time in real life spent waiting, not play time.  If it takes me 100 days to play 100 hours, that's a long wait.  If I am the sort of person with no job, out of school or work, who sleeps, then plays warframe 16 hours a day, that same 100 hours might be done in a week or two.  And worse, the blueprints might not occur during that time.  To my memory, it was at least a week or two before the first glaive opportunity; if these are as rare as that, it could be a significant amount of REAL time before people looking to make the frame could possibly do so, especially if the blueprints repeat rather than come up uniquely, which any truely random system is more likely to do (6/27 possible outcomes for the right order to get all three blueprints on the first three availabilities, assuming you don't miss any, means roughly 22% chance it'll even be possible before the blueprints repeat).

 

If they're only as rare as artifacts, that's likely not going to be too bad.  If they're as rare as weapon blueprints, then there's a substantial chance if you are available and get EVERY blueprint that you'll take a month or more for the necessary component blueprints.  It's not just that you need three blueprints, it's that you need three different blueprints. 

 

When so many people already have problems with the way the alert system works, is it really a good idea to make something as anticipated as this, which is being released supposedly to appease people waiting on update 8 who expected it by today dependant on that system with such likely rarity?  Worse, after the backlash over the unavailability of the frost-prime blueprints, and the glaive, does this show that DE really learned from the experience?  There's a reason DERebecca tweeted a picture of DEScott apologizing for making her job hard, and that's because they anticipate community backlash over this.

 

I want to make it clear; I am not advocating they change their decision. I would prefer another method, or higher probability than I expect for the release of the blueprints necessary, but I'm not going to stop supporting them or their game over it, and I'm not really complaining.  What I'm saying is that the complainers have a valid point of view, based on the same information available to you, that's just as likely as your own take (perhaps moreso, IMO) and that you're being dismissive of VALID and NECESSARY criticism.

 

I am not defending the opinion that the way this is being released is bad so much as I'm defending the need for people who feel that way to be able to say so without someone coming in and white-knighting for DE. I'm not defending anyone who's taking it or making it personal, but I haven't seen that.  I do freely admit that I can't possibly find the time to read every post, though.

 

And I do like a good debate. ;)

 

Oh ho! We have a smart one here. +1

I would like to start off by saying you have very valid points and are worth listening to. I have respect for you and what you say.

 

I am defending my client, DE, against accusations of unfair play and use of ?Alerts for the new Vauban Warframe. Take my points with a grain of salt. I am open to debate, counter-arguments, and intelligent criticism.

 

First, i will refute your easily-refutable arguments, then get into the meat of my argument.

 

Are you expecting the guy who plays 1 hour a day to obtain all the warframe part BPs from farming a boss the same amount of real-life time as a guy who plays 4 hours a day? Someone who puts in more time will accomplish more goals "faster" than someone who doesn't.

 

However, this isn't really a race to see who can get what the fastest. Everyone will get things at their own pace.

 

Yes, you are correct that I am completely fabricating estimates out of thin air. There are too many variables to really pinpoint anything. Drop rates, whether or not someone uses twitter, amount of free time can greatly vary. However, looking at current drop rates for the Glaive BP on ? Alerts, I believe I have made fairly educated guesses. Within several weeks of release, the Glaive has been made fairly obtainable by a good portion of the community. I personally have no qualms about the Glaive BP drop rate.

 

I agree with your first point about the definition of probabilities. "Estimates of potential occurrence". This is a rather vague definition and can entail a variety of things. Potential occurrence for what? One event? Several events? A chain of events? All are within the realm of probability. We can define obtaining a Vauban as a series of events, obtaining each of the Three different parts separately from different ? Alert missions. Obtaining multiple BPs for the same part does not count.

 

You seriously misunderstand the main concept. "They're useless over an indeterminate number of instances so great that the 'curve' approaches a single flat plane where everyone has reached the event being measured." I respectfully dissent. Allow me to educate you.

 

Let's define an event as an hour of gametime or freetime that you are not playing, but checking twitter for ?alerts. One event = 1 hour in which you could possibly accomplish a ? alert. Let's hypothesize that the chance of a Glaive dropping in that hour is 5%. The actual rate may be higher or lower. I don't know, but for the sake of argument, let's assume it's 5%.

What's the probability of a Glaive dropping in an hour? 5%. Now, what's the chance of it dropping over 10 hours, or 10 events? 50%? 25%? The answer is probably not what you think. 

We can rephrase this as "What is the chance that there will be one or more successes out of 10 tries, with a 5% chance of success each time?", when a success is defined as a Glaive BP ? Alert happening within the hour.

 

We're moving into the field of statistics now. This is called a Binomial Distribution. Wikipedia defines this well: In probability theory and statistics, the binomial distribution is the discrete probability distribution of the number of successes in a sequence of n independent yes/no experiments, each of which yields success with probability p.

 

I personally like to call this probability stacking. It's a probability of a probability. Probabilityception, if you will.

 

You can do this in Excel. http://www.graphpad.com/support/faqid/1311/'>http://www.graphpad.com/support/faqid/1311/ will teach you how! Because it's one or more successes I am using cumulative binomial distribution.

 

The correct answer is 8.6%. It doesn't sound like much, right? However, let's increase the number of events, or hours played, to 20. The chance that there will be one or more successes happening within 20 tries, or hours played, with a 0.05% chance of success, is now 26.4%.

 

Sounds much better, right? But it's still not probable that you'd get one. So let's increase the hours played to 30. The probability is now 44.6%

At 50 hours, you have a 72% of obtaining the Glaive. After 100 hours, you have a 96% chance of getting a Glaive.

Understand? There is a threshold where the majority of players can craft something from a ? Alert.

[Strudelhouse]

7.The Dojo! 1v1 Duels! PVP?

we will not be balancing any PvE elements of the game for this.

A PvE game that isn't balanced based on PvP?

 

I'm sold.

[ArsVampyre]

I wrote this long response and then realized my premise MUST be false. I collected data from the past week of ? alerts and did statistics based on that data as an estimate for average behavior and discovered that if the Voubon BP are as rare as a weapon BP like the Plasma sword, it will take roughly 20 weeks if you're available an average 8 hours a day to respond to the ? alert to obtain Voubon BP's for all three parts. Individual weapon BP appear to be more rare that potatoes, so based on DERebecca's note about the BP availability for Voubon, that's unlikely. The glaive appears to be much more likely (it's occurred an average of 1.25 times per week since release if what I read someone saying was true and it's been available 5 times so far) which is a much higher average than any other weapon BP. Still my calculations put the average likelihood of a Glaive BP occurring in an hour at 1.2%. I would suggest you rethink your estimates based on that. That also explains why it doesn't seem so rare; 1.2% chance per hour means 1.25 occurences per week, roughly. It's been 4 weeks, so 5 occurrences, and given a random distribution and availability of 8 hours per day every day since release, almost everyone who wanted one and had the entire map unlocked would have one by the end of the 3rd week. Even if the Voubon BP are that common (one occurring 1.25 times per week) That still means 3 weeks minimum, and more likely much more, because of the likelihood of repeated BP instead of unique BP AND also because most people simply can't be available 24/7 to respond to an ? alert.<br /><br />I don't have time to do any more math; I've already wasted too much time on this. Needless to say, I don't think your estimate of 100 hours is reasonable, even if people are available 8 hours a day, 7 days a week.<br /><br />I also find your use of hours played to be flawed. Alerts are completely independant of time played; playing more does not increase your chances of obtaining an ? alert other than unlocking more maps on which it can occur. Hours available to respond is a more reasonable use, and I think 1/3rd of hours available in a day is a highly conservative possible answer; most people won't have that available to them.<br /><br />Data collected: over the past week on twitter I counted the number of ? alerts, from Friday at Midnight to 5 PM today (Eastern time).<br /><br />There were 6 potatoes, one of which was forced and two of which occurred right together, so this seems likely to be a distortion of average that a wider sampling would remove. 6 were weapon BP of some time, two of those were Glaives BP, there were 9 helmet BP, and 32 Artifacts. I estimated an average of 30 minutes per alert and them all occuring one after the other, or two per hour, or 336 per week. 2/336*2 ~= .012 or my 1.2% per hour estimate. Individual non-glaive weapons occurred at 4/336*2 or 2.4% per hour, but you have to divide by 12 (the number of available weapons that aren't the glaive that are available by ? alert only) so an individual non-glaive weapon chance is .15% per hour. That means an individual non-glaive weapon happens about once every 4 weeks. If you're available 1/3rd of the hours in a day, every day, then 12 weeks to obtain the weapon you want if it's random. The glaive occurs an average of 1.25 times (based on the information I have) per week, or a 5 times more likely happening than the other ? alert weapons. So if the BP are as frequent as a glaive, then you should get a Voubon BP once every 2.4 weeks, so 7.2 weeks on average to obtain Voubon. If you're available 8 hours a day, 7 days a week, during that time to respond to the ? alerts.<br /><br />50 days. And that's assuming you don't get unlucky and get repeated blueprints during your availability, which is unlikely.<br /><br />Sorry, that's pay to win rarity IMO. It'll be rare enough for a reasonably dedicated player that it's roughly the equivalent of unobtainable before it's drastically alerted (by drastically altered, I mean nerfed ala the Rhino or Banshee).<br /><br />The glaive doesn't seem that rare because 2.4 weeks doesn't seem like a long time to wait by comparison; it's been available 4 weeks and you only need the one BP, so of course people can get it. At the same availability, it'd take 3 times as long or more (I don't want to do the probability of obtaining the correct blueprints and how many 2.4 weeks occurrences it takes before you're more likely to have the BP available to you than not) as the glaive.<br /><br />I'd think there'd be another major update out at the rate DE is going before most people have been able to get a Voubon without buying it with cash.<br /><br />I think the math sides with those who think it's unreasonable. One BP, like the Banshee helm (which occured twice this week, like the glaive) seems reasonable. At that sort of rate, roughly everyone who really wants one can get one in roughly 2.4 weeks. All three parts makes it ridiculously long.<br /><br />Or something random could occur and all three BP are available to someone right away, then not for a very long time. The chances of that are extremely small (though probably better than a lottery win).

Edit: Oi, I put in paragraphs!

Edited May 17, 2013 by ArsVampyre

[ArsVampyre]

P.S. in Platinum currently, if you got your plat as a grand-master founder (best rate currently available) you will pay $8.45 for a Voubon warframe. Or you can spend upwards of 7 weeks minimum waiting to get it via BP.

Still think their criticism is unfounded?

[RunNGun]

Hrm. Very valid points.

Sorry, that block of text is really quite difficult to read. Please correct me if I misread something.

 

"I also find your use of hours played to be flawed. Alerts are completely independant of time played; playing more does not increase your chances of obtaining an ? alert other than unlocking more maps on which it can occur. Hours available to respond is a more reasonable use, and I tthink 1/3rd of hours available in a day is a highly conservative possible answer; most people won't have that available to them."

 

Alerts are also completely independent of hours available, too. Please read more carefully. I should've also been more clear.

 

I agree with you that hours available to respond is a more reasonable use. I mentioned this, although not very clearly, in my last post. 

 

Part of me feels like you completely skimmed over the important part of understanding binomial distribution. Although alerts are completely independent of hours available, there is still the probability that an alert will pop up during the hour available. My figures completely disregard the fact that alerts will appear when a player is not available. An event, as I defined before, is an hour that a player is available to respond. It does not include hours that a player is not able to respond.

 

However, I will clarify my case, which I did not state before. I am arguing that RNG is not an unfair way to distribute BPs in itself. It will depend on the drop rate. I apologize for the confusion.

If your 1.2% drop rate for the Glaive is true, then if a person is available for 100 hours (4 hours a day for 25 days), he/she will have a 33.78% chance of obtaining one or more Glaive BPs. Kind of really low, actually

 

Whether or not this new system is "unfair" will depend on the drop rate of the BPs. I hope the devs at DE know about Binomial Distribution.

[jessiegls]

And so it begins....why can't PvE games be strictly PvE ever? More often then not PvP ruins PvE based games...Firefall was a huge disappointment to me after they ruined all the battleframes so PvP would be "balanced." Not going to lie, this PvP thing has me worried.  I really don't want to lose another one of my favorite games due to PvP...

don't worry, myself I hate PVP and love PVE, but I think it's actually a great system to have a bit of PVP and it still keeps the PVE intact, it doesn't disrupte anything, just relax and have faith in the developers of the game, I'm sure they know what they are doing :)

[ArsVampyre]

Hrm. Very valid points.

Sorry, that block of text is really quite difficult to read. Please correct me if I misread something.

 

"I also find your use of hours played to be flawed. Alerts are completely independant of time played; playing more does not increase your chances of obtaining an ? alert other than unlocking more maps on which it can occur. Hours available to respond is a more reasonable use, and I tthink 1/3rd of hours available in a day is a highly conservative possible answer; most people won't have that available to them."

 

Alerts are also completely independent of hours available, too. Please read more carefully. I should've also been more clear.

 

I agree with you that hours available to respond is a more reasonable use. I mentioned this, although not very clearly, in my last post. 

 

Part of me feels like you completely skimmed over the important part of understanding binomial distribution. Although alerts are completely independent of hours available, there is still the probability that an alert will pop up during the hour available. My figures completely disregard the fact that alerts will appear when a player is not available. An event, as I defined before, is an hour that a player is available to respond. It does not include hours that a player is not able to respond.

 

However, I will clarify my case, which I did not state before. I am arguing that RNG is not an unfair way to distribute BPs in itself. It will depend on the drop rate. I apologize for the confusion.

If your 1.2% drop rate for the Glaive is true, then if a person is available for 100 hours (4 hours a day for 25 days), he/she will have a 33.78% chance of obtaining one or more Glaive BPs. Kind of really low, actually

 

Whether or not this new system is "unfair" will depend on the drop rate of the BPs. I hope the devs at DE know about Binomial Distribution.

Not so much glossing over it as being lazy.  I didn't want to do the work, and still don't.  I'm pretty willing to trust your analysis.

 

That's why I put up how I arrived at my figures; my original post that I deleted was about 4 times that length.  I saved it in Word just in case I ever wanted it but it's too long to post, IMO.

 

And, to be honest, I put in paragraphs as I wrote the giant block of text.  It shows in the html breaks.  I have no idea why it didn't render there but did elsewhere, but I didn't have the patience to go back and fix it.  

[OldJerseyDevil]

I don't have a problem with any of this.

 

I managed to get all three parts for Banshee within a day or two. Read the wiki to find the most likely spots they'd drop, same with the Orokin cells, Catalyst.Reactor BP's, Rubedo, Alloy Plate etc.For one of her BP's I had to solo Mercury Prime once. Ridiculously easy in hindisght, as I never like going solo. The BP's for Ash are posing a biger issue so I'm not really worried about the new model, yet.

 

The Dojo thing sounds really cool. I'll worry about the grind when I actually have people to help me with it. I have a clan of myself, four old friends who haven't bothered to log into the game in three weeks, and one new prospect who's asked to join after I posted a notice on the forum.

https://forums.warframe.com/index.php?/topic/45438-new-clan-needs-team-players/?p=455990

 

I agree the daily rewards have been less than stellar as of late. I used to get catalyst BP's lately all I get is shotgun ammo. I didn't even own a shotgun! Instead of getting upset I bought a Hek BP. Life gives you lemons, you make lemonade, right. I love my new Hek! It's very efficient at turning enemies into a juicy pulp at my feet!

 

If Update 8 takes longer it gives us more time to prepare!

 

So it's all good.

 

-OJD-

[OldJerseyDevil]

They are vanilla tenno. ^^

 

And lotus is certainly an AI.

 

Blasphemy!

 

;P

 

And my not-so-objective opinion on the Glaive. I bought it the moment I heard about it, I didn't even care about the cost in platinum. But it's very OP with the 2 polarity slots, way too quick to level and not as useful in so many situations. Could be I'm doing it all wrong. I just got tired of breaking the glass every single time I threw it near an exterior window!

 

Don't get me wrong, I still love it and will use it again eventually.

 

Oh and the BP's, I think that was the original question. I have one, would have two if the server hadn't crashed on me before the alert ended.. Wondering if the BP's will be trade-able eventually. Dumping them for coin is just heartbreaking.

 

-OJD-

-OJD-

Edited May 18, 2013 by OldJerseyDevil

[RunNGun]

Not so much glossing over it as being lazy.  I didn't want to do the work, and still don't.  I'm pretty willing to trust your analysis.

 

That's why I put up how I arrived at my figures; my original post that I deleted was about 4 times that length.  I saved it in Word just in case I ever wanted it but it's too long to post, IMO.

 

And, to be honest, I put in paragraphs as I wrote the giant block of text.  It shows in the html breaks.  I have no idea why it didn't render there but did elsewhere, but I didn't have the patience to go back and fix it.  

Aha, most forums use BB code, not HTML, but they usually take both. It's interesting how Warframe forums doesn't register both.

Well, the points are out. We gave a good show.

[Tsualla]

I really don't have any problem with 1vs1 clan PvP. It is, afterall and agreement between two people  to duel, not like real PvP when it is unexpected or whatsoever. And it's need no balancing by devs. You and Your partner both do the balancing. It isn't hard to ask you duelmate not to do certain action, and if the person agrees, then no problem :\

Edited May 18, 2013 by Tsualla