Question: Are Random Void Drops Really Random?

[DeadlyPeanutt]

As I've been playing the game more, and playing void almost exclusively to make frames to trade, I've noticed that the 'random' drops in specific  void missions seem far from random.  

 

For instance, in T3 D missions, wave 20 C rotation: there are 8 possible drops.  One of the drops is the Ash P BP ( a valuable drop), another is Wyrm P Cerebrum (a relatively worthless drop).  In playing that mission over 20-30 games, the number of Wyrm drops is at 80-90%.  

 

Is it possible that the random number generator is working against me in this instance? Surely.  But a random number generator that produces the same number 80-90% of the time is hardly random.  Anyone who knows math is aware that nothing is easier than to program a RNG to spit out a specific number very rarely (of course, that would not be a Random Number Generator at all, quite the contrary). 

 

other topics have addressed this, specifically:

https://forums.warframe.com/index.php?/topic/426276-void-rotation-c-drop-rates-remain-broken-something-still-needs-to-be-done/

 

My Question: Are the drop in the void (or in the game generally) actually random? Or are some drops more rare within those specific drop tables by design?

 

Of course, if the answer is that void drops are not random, then I'll stop playing those missions.  Also, we should stop referring to RNGs at all in regards to drops.  If some drops are designed to be rare and not random, then playing those missions becomes much less attractive.  For instance, if in a T3D mission, I have a 1-500 chance of getting an Ash BP, then I would not play the mission. 

 

Proof would be quite easy.... Start a topic and have players add data as they play the specific mission, when the data reaches 200-300 missions, the results should be fairly accurate.  

 

I ask the question, because this proof may already have been gathered.

 

Please refrain from responding with flames; this is a valid question which effects all players.  If the drops are NOT random, we should all know this in advance. 

 

TIA from a relatively new player :)

 

 

[Tesseract7777]

There is a degree of unpredictably, but the word random literally means without a definable pattern. If it has a definable pattern that is not "random". There is a difference between something unpredictable and something being random. 

 

If you found a pattern, then you found an example of something that isn't truly "random" in the first place... it just takes a long time and many occurrences for the pattern to appear. 

Edited February 10, 2016 by Tesseract7777

[(PSN)Cwellann]

Then, by your definition, literally nothing is random.  Not even things governed by the uncertainty principle, as there is a greater likelihood for the electron to be in a given area of its cloud.  You're making the term too strict.

[Tesseract7777]

Then, by your definition, literally nothing is random.  Not even things governed by the uncertainty principle, as there is a greater likelihood for the electron to be in a given area of its cloud.  You're making the term too strict.

 

Perhaps I am taking it a bit more literally than most would, but to make a point: I think most people are using the word too loosely, and as a result the widespread meme of "its rng" is confusing people. 

 

We can talk about all the layers behind the system, but just telling people "it's a random number generator" is not really accurate. Some parts of it may be technically accurate, but it certainly isn't an accurate explanation of what's going on behind the scenes in Warframe to just say "its rng". And it easily misleads people into not understanding how the system actually works, and it makes for more frustration for new players. 

 

Without explaining to them also that it is weighted, they will likely come out confused. 

Edited February 10, 2016 by Tesseract7777

[ZodiacShinryu]

If the drop rates are reasonable, why should they get backlash? And if they aren't reasonable, then why shouldn't they get backlash?

Reasonable is a subjective term.  People will mold what is reasonable based on what they want and from what I see online its not reasonable if you have to do more than 10 runs for any given item. Yet the system can't possible change its rate for everyone as they need nor does making everything equally likely make your chances any better especially as more items are put in the same table. For example, if you have 10 items in a table all equally likely to occur you have 10% chance per item. However if you want just one item you have collectively 90% chance to not get what you want. The game doesn't care what you got last time. You can potentially do the same amount of runs regardless of what the percentage actually is.  I can understand the desire to want to know what you are getting into but with the first couple of days of release its evident from user experience what tier they fall in.

 

As for reasons why they don't release such information could be to prevent manipulation of RNG. To say that DE has a true generator would be naive and as such if we know enough information you can reverse the process to figure out how to most likely to get what you want. True randomness is fairly rare if you know enough about the system and how it operates. Even chaotic systems involved in chaos theory can be predicted to certain degrees over certain timespans.

 

For people that played this game early on will surely remember the RNG failures of early defense.  People generated tables that could predict what mod you'd get and when you'd get it after wave 5 and increase the accuracy of the table the longer you went in defense. All this from knowing the percentages of the drops, how the system dealt with those percentages and how the system gave the initial value.

[(PSN)robertgk2017]

Honestly i think it should be complete random, everything has equal chance no matter what

[GoneBlank]

I'm pretty confident that if you asked a philosopher, a statistician, an engineer and a physicist what the word "random" means that you would get four quite distinct answers.

[ZodiacShinryu]

Honestly i think it should be complete random, everything has equal chance no matter what

What you said is two separate issues.

What if i told you the system now is completely random? If it is working as intended then it is.

Everything being equal chance is a weighted issue which is how they assign what a random number represents. A good generator doesn't assign a reward to a single value because that increases the chances of bias (simple intervals negate certain elements of variation). If you want equal chance then its as simple as assigning the same number of values.

 

NOTE! You should keep in mind that equal chance works against you as more things are pooled into the same table.

[OniDax]

Reasonable is a subjective term.  People will mold what is reasonable based on what they want and from what I see online its not reasonable if you have to do more than 10 runs for any given item. Yet the system can't possible change its rate for everyone as they need nor does making everything equally likely make your chances any better especially as more items are put in the same table. For example, if you have 10 items in a table all equally likely to occur you have 10% chance per item. However if you want just one item you have collectively 90% chance to not get what you want. The game doesn't care what you got last time. You can potentially do the same amount of runs regardless of what the percentage actually is.  I can understand the desire to want to know what you are getting into but with the first couple of days of release its evident from user experience what tier they fall in.

 

As for reasons why they don't release such information could be to prevent manipulation of RNG. To say that DE has a true generator would be naive and as such if we know enough information you can reverse the process to figure out how to most likely to get what you want. True randomness is fairly rare if you know enough about the system and how it operates. Even chaotic systems involved in chaos theory can be predicted to certain degrees over certain timespans.

 

For people that played this game early on will surely remember the RNG failures of early defense.  People generated tables that could predict what mod you'd get and when you'd get it after wave 5 and increase the accuracy of the table the longer you went in defense. All this from knowing the percentages of the drops, how the system dealt with those percentages and how the system gave the initial value.

 

The problem for most players isn't that the game is grindy. It's that it's rng-based grind. In other words, it's not that you have to do 100 or 1000 runs to get an item. It's that you can end up doing 100 or 1000 runs and not get anything at all. I believe that most players would be quite satisfied if they new upfront that they had to do a set number of runs to obtain a certain item, even if that number was 1000 runs, with the certainty that they'd get the item they desired after that amount of time (pretty much the way tactical alerts work). I have never seen someone complain about having to do 10 runs to get an item. Not only that, but you're not going to get a rare item in 10 runs unless you're extremely lucky, so that's probably not even a real complaint you've seen.

 

As for DE releasing the drop tables, all it indicates is how rare an item is compared to other drops. And what it does is let people know whether it's even worth their time to try to farm for something.

[Tesseract7777]

I'm pretty confident that if you asked a philosopher, a statistician, an engineer and a physicist what the word "random" means that you would get four quite distinct answers.

 

That may be the problem here lol. Some very different ideas of the word in this thread, based on people's backgrounds in various fields. 

 

@ZodiacShinryu

 

Having a random number generator that assigns a random value does not mean the system itself is truly random though. The number picked is random, but the system itself is not... the designed it to be weighted because they want people to have a higher or lower chance of getting certain drops. 

 

And that's the point I am trying to make here, that I think people are missing: 

 

Saying that it is rng is only half the story. If you don't explain the rest (how the weighting works), and how the random number is assigned, etc. in terms of reward (what we can glean without datamining of course), then new players will be confused. It's the reason we have this thread. Because new players are confused. That's why I am saying, that just telling them half the story is not enough, I think in general we should be more descriptive when explaining to to people. Most people don't even explain anything about it, they just post stalker memes for people. 

[OniDax]

What you said is two separate issues.

What if i told you the system now is completely random? If it is working as intended then it is.

Everything being equal chance is a weighted issue which is how they assign what a random number represents. A good generator doesn't assign a reward to a single value because that increases the chances of bias (simple intervals negate certain elements of variation). If you want equal chance then its as simple as assigning the same number of values.

 

NOTE! You should keep in mind that equal chance works against you as more things are pooled into the same table.

 

No system is completely random. It's all pseudo-random. Also, just to let you know, all items are assigned a particular percentage chance of dropping. How do I know? You can thank Reddit. Also, in Warframe, equal chance would make it more difficult to get common drops but easier to get rarer drops. As for my personal opinion, I don't think every item needs an equal chance to drop. I just think that the rare items need a higher chance to drop than what they seem to be. Something like 1% or 2% is too low, imo. Yes, rare items need to take longer to acquire. But farming should still be a viable means of acquiring rare items, and it seems like DE doesn't want farming rare items to be viable at all. Just seems like they want plat to be the only viable means of acquiring rare items.

[(PSN)Cwellann]

A good generator doesn't assign a reward to a single value because that increases the chances of bias (simple intervals negate certain elements of variation). If you want equal chance then its as simple as assigning the same number of values.

...Statistician?

 

Perhaps I am taking it a bit more literally than most would, but to make a point: I think most people are using the word too loosely, and as a result the widespread meme of "its rng" is confusing people. 

Fair enough.  Given the requests for data mined information earlier in this thread, I may have taken some of your comments as a bit of a lead in to setting up some straw man arguments.  

 

Saying that it is rng is only half the story. If you don't explain the rest (how the weighting works), and how the random number is assigned, etc. in terms of reward (what we can glean without datamining of course), then new players will be confused. It's the reason we have this thread. Because new players are confused. That's why I am saying, that just telling them half the story is not enough, I think in general we should be more descriptive when explaining to to people. Most people don't even explain anything about it, they just post stalker memes for people. 

The problem with this is explaining it in significant enough detail to actually provide a true and accurate picture of what's going on will get you a very good imitation of a medically induced coma more than 90% of the time.  Heck, explaining basic modding usually gets the eyes glazed over response.  "It's RNG, but these missions have these drop tables" is about as much as a newbie is going to be receptive to in most cases.  Gotta roadcone these things.

Edited February 10, 2016 by (PS4)Cwellann

[ZodiacShinryu]

The problem for most players isn't that the game is grindy. It's that it's rng-based grind. In other words, it's not that you have to do 100 or 1000 runs to get an item. It's that you can end up doing 100 or 1000 runs and not get anything at all. I believe that most players would be quite satisfied if they new upfront that they had to do a set number of runs to obtain a certain item, even if that number was 1000 runs, with the certainty that they'd get the item they desired after that amount of time (pretty much the way tactical alerts work). I have never seen someone complain about having to do 10 runs to get an item. Not only that, but you're not going to get a rare item in 10 runs unless you're extremely lucky, so that's probably not even a real complaint you've seen.

 

As for DE releasing the drop tables, all it indicates is how rare an item is compared to other drops. And what it does is let people know whether it's even worth their time to try to farm for something.

First I've seen and commented a number of threads with claims of RNG being broken with their numbers of runs being under 30. From frame parts from bosses to mod drops in spy to void drops. You'd be surprised at how quick people are to complain. One that I remember fairly well was about Covert Lethality and they did like 26 runs and talked about it they've wasted so much time.  And i can certainly see that people don't like RNG based grind but merely seeing percentages is a strange remedy to this problem because nothing actually changed for them, they are in essence coming at the grindwall wrong.  People fail to understand Probability only to be misguided that a percentage indicates a time frame or level of effort. Statistics can give you your odds but in the end it will happen when it happens statistical anomaly or not. As I put in another thread by this very OP on the same subject.  In FFXIV the crafting system has a success percentage on actions. I failed to successfully complete an action with 90% chance of success 12 times in a row. Was RNG broken? Probably not, based on my whole experience with the system it wasn't. Things just merely happen.

 

Secondly, a small amount of information can go a long way in understanding the system as whole especially if it is a simpler system over a complex one. If you can understand the whole system you might be able to exploit it. Id be careful not to reveal more than necessary (and conveying drop percentages just because is not necessary). Should DE want to add a denotation whether items are Common ©, Uncommon (U), Rare ® next to the items on the void prime page. That's fine just to express that there is a tier system (maybe even an interval like 1-10% in the system is noted Rare if they feel generous) but this is nothing that isn't known after the first couple of days of release.

 

 

@ZodiacShinryu

 

Having a random number generator that assigns a random value does not mean the system itself is truly random though. The number picked is random, but the system itself is not... the designed it to be weighted because they want people to have a higher or lower chance of getting certain drops. 

 

And that's the point I am trying to make here, that I think people are missing: 

 

Saying that it is rng is only half the story. If you don't explain the rest (how the weighting works), and how the random number is assigned, etc. in terms of reward (what we can glean without datamining of course), then new players will be confused. It's the reason we have this thread. Because new players are confused. That's why I am saying, that just telling them half the story is not enough, I think in general we should be more descriptive when explaining to to people. Most people don't even explain anything about it, they just post stalker memes for people. 

Yes and No. True randomness even in nature is implied solely on a situation bases because most things can be predicted given enough information and a defined window of time. You have to pick your parameters that you want to denote what random is.  I understand the semantics behind your argument however there isn't a very easy way to convey this to people that make assumptions about a system they don't know anything about. Yes there is a non random element to how rewards are given but to expect pure rng (in its truest sense) is naive to expect from any human (who have made the system). But at the same time to say "weighted rng" is just as misleading for people that don't understand in the first place. DE isn't "scaming" you by making the RNG give you common stuff on a whim. The weight comes from how the value of the random number is applied to the reward.  People need to understand that most every game uses (at least) a two layered system to loot with RNG.  The random number generation which only has to be random enough to not be biased (but can be and ideally is purely random). Then the value assignment to the number that gives you the reward which doesn't have to be random (and usually isn't).  Even when all items have equal chance they go through the same process the only difference being that the assigned value of the number generated is equal between all items.

[ZodiacShinryu]

No system is completely random. It's all pseudo-random. Also, just to let you know, all items are assigned a particular percentage chance of dropping. How do I know? You can thank Reddit. Also, in Warframe, equal chance would make it more difficult to get common drops but easier to get rarer drops. As for my personal opinion, I don't think every item needs an equal chance to drop. I just think that the rare items need a higher chance to drop than what they seem to be. Something like 1% or 2% is too low, imo. Yes, rare items need to take longer to acquire. But farming should still be a viable means of acquiring rare items, and it seems like DE doesn't want farming rare items to be viable at all. Just seems like they want plat to be the only viable means of acquiring rare items.

I'm well aware of the limitations of randomness. I'm also well aware of the drop percentages I've not only said it multiple times throughout this thread but in replies to your posts.  The bigger question is not whether they exist but how the system uses that data as it pertains to RNG.  I won't say that how I've given my examples of how it takes those percentages to spit out rewards is exactly how Warframe runs it right now but it is in fact how Warframe use to run in back in U7 (also thanks to dataminers and Reddit).

 

You've taken the wrong message out of my note. Easier to get rares in comparison commons in an equal chance pool depends on the pool. Small pool... Sure. But as the pool gets larger even getting a certain use to be "common" is rare while comparisons to rares now stay the same. That's all because the collective odds are against you at all times. If we are generous and say a given rare is 4-5% now then a pool of 20-25 items simulates the same thing in equal chance. While most pools sit around 10 items there are some places where upwards of 20 items sit. And things get pushed into old existing pools all the time. This is part of the reason for removing items from the void to vault as more parts get put in (it messes with desired percentages on all sides).

 

Ultimately if you want to think about it simplistically you can make a weighted system into equal chance simply by adding more copies of the same reward. You have 10 items at 10% each but you have 9 copies of a common reward in the table. There you go you have a common and a rare with all equal chance of being drawn!

[Kihana]

Ducat prices seems good enough way to determine what is rare.

 

Hardly. I can get 50D Nyx Prime parts (and others) to drop with monotonous regularity, but can't get an alternative part I need to drop no matter how much farming.

 

Ducat price appears to have little to do with rarity. That's one players opinion based on long term data.

[Grobbus]

Hardly. I can get 50D Nyx Prime parts (and others) to drop with monotonous regularity, but can't get an alternative part I need to drop no matter how much farming.

 

Ducat price appears to have little to do with rarity. That's one players opinion based on long term data.

Well I found some old data-mined information which just proves my speculations the lowest drop-chance items were worth 50 ducats.

[SilentMobius]

Perhaps the term "weighted random number generator" would be more appropriate. Random implies spontaneous and unpredictable, but if something is classed as common you already know the most likely outcome (though when you do happen to find that one uncommon/rare drop you always wanted it just means luck was in your favour, it's just down to % chances)

 

Lets be clear here "Random" just means "unpredictable" not "equally possible".

 

It's a "weighted drop chance" the RNG is just as random as any game RNG (Hence actually pseudo random, but random enough for mere humans)

 

It's truly bizarre that people think that weighting drops are somehow "not random" It's like they've never seen a lottery before, where you have a higher chance of lower prizes and a lower chance of the higher prizes, yet it's all still very much "random".

Edited February 10, 2016 by SilentMobius

[TennoSimons]

I'm sorry, but weighted drops are not random.  Saying that they are weighted and listing the chances of obtaining a drop is more accurate (ie, in my example: T3D, C rotation, ash p bp: 1-500).

 

Weighed and random are not mutually exclusive. 

 

The winner(s) of a given lottery are random - but the odds are weighed heavily against them.

[(PSN)Onder6099]

Well I found some old data-mined information which just proves my speculations the lowest drop-chance items were worth 50 ducats.

Hmmm, what about vaulted parts? Edited February 10, 2016 by (PS4)Onder6099

[unknow99]

No, it's PRNG.

 

Pur randomness doesn't seem to be implementable stricto sensu...

[(PSN)Lor-Enzo_1996_]

DeadlyPeanutt: technically speaking, anything that comes out of a standard computer is deterministic. Hence, when most computer science courses cover random number generators they refer to pseudo random number generators. {Perhaps quantum computers might be different??? Very curious if there are knowledgeable people out there on this topic.}

 

Standard coding (I have no idea what DE do) would be to use a (pseudo) random number generator of the uniform distribution on the unit interval (i.e., it will produce a value between 0 and 1). So let's say you have two items: A with a 10% drop chance and B with a 90% drop chance. Use the aforementioned random number generator: if the value is between 0 and 0.1 then you get A between 0.1 and 1 you get B. Now whether you describe that as random or not.....I'll leave that to you.

 

Note that mods are described as common/uncommon/rare; however, there are many instances where drop chances bare little resemblance to those labels. There are some rares that (e.g., power throw) that drop with more regularity than some uncommons.

 

At present the only real methods of finding out void drop rates: forums / trade chat. In short - sample observation.

 

I actually agree with the view of having much clearer labelling as to the common/uncommon/rare/ultra-rare(?) status of items. It would help people determine if they wanted to buy the items outright and promote more transparent pricing of said items in trade.

I was thinking about this too.

 

I think thats the way it is.

 

For example when a new prime comes out or any other new thing,the interval would probably be very very small and you'd basically get things you already have most of times,but you all already know how it works ^^

 

EDIT. So yeah,the initial generated number might be random,but you'll be more likely to get  things which have a bigger interval as the guy I quoted explained.

Edited February 10, 2016 by (PS4)Lor-Enzo_1996_

[Cat_Jam]

Lets be clear here "Random" just means "unpredictable" not "equally possible".

"Random implies spontaneous and unpredictable..."

 

You quoted me saying literally the exact thing you pointed out...

[(XBOX)KSI GreendayFox]

I really think it depends on what you're going after like ash helmet is easier to get than his systems and such 

[GoneBlank]

Wow - we're on page 4 now. I think this touches on something Tesseract raised - namely, that there is a strong desire by the community to get a better understanding of these issues/concepts - it would serve to lower the frustration felt by a lot of players.

 

I find it curious that people can consider the word "random" and state its meaning with such conviction.

 

"random" is a fluffy airy word that means different things to different people.

 

Personally, coming from more of a statistical background I tend to think of it as denoting a draw (observation) from a particular probability distribution.

 

A philosopher would think of it along the lines of that which is not expected.

 

The physicist would tend to think of it as set of properties defined in a certain space.

 

There is no right or wrong - it is simply that certain levels of specificity are required for certain levels of problem/discussion.

 

Apologies for what is probably something of a deviation from the OP's query - it's just I found the discussion quite interesting.

Edited February 10, 2016 by GoneBlank

[BlackVortex]

RNG is actually a misnomer really. The meme when someone is talking about good or bad luck is to mention "rng" which stands for "random number generator". 

 

Having weighted percentages is absolutely not random at all. A number generator that has a strong weight to be picking certain numbers is not a random number generator, it is a weighted number generator varying by percentages. 

 

Many, many games use a similar system btw for their loot. Weighted drop chance percentages, so it's sort of random except it's not really random at all. It's a system designed for many games in order to be unpredictable, which gives the player a feeling of coming possible surprises and keeps them hooked, but I don't think any game has ever used a truly random system for their loot. 

it is RNG, this is why:

 

they pick a random generated number between 1-100

item 1 has numbers 1-3

item 2 has numbers 4-10

item 3 has numbers 11-100

 

so if number 70 gets picked, you get item number 3

if number 7 gets picked, you get item number 2

 

item number 1 has 3% chance to drop

item number 2 has 7% chance to drop

and item number 3 has 90% chance to drop

[(PSN)Onder6099]

it is RNG, this is why:

they pick a random generated number between 1-100

item 1 has numbers 1-3

item 2 has numbers 4-10

item 3 has numbers 11-100

so if number 70 gets picked, you get item number 3

if number 7 gets picked, you get item number 2

item number 1 has 3% chance to drop

item number 2 has 7% chance to drop

and item number 3 has 90% chance to drop

^ This is exactly why its not RNG, imho Edited February 11, 2016 by (PS4)Onder6099