Every Friggin' Time

[MystiKasT]

THAT IS 5 DAYS IN A ROW I'VE GOTTEN THE SCULPTURE AS MY SORTIE REWARD

DECREASE THE CHANCES THIS IS FRIGGIN' NUTS I'D LOVE TO SEE THE LOOT TABLE

[DeMonkey]

[MystiKasT]

I'd love for someone good in statistics to tell me the probability of me having got those 5 sculptures 5 times in a row.

[(PSN)LeBlingKing]

13 minutes ago, MystiKasT said:

I'd love for someone good in statistics to tell me the probability of me having got those 5 sculptures 5 times in a row.

A sortie a day. 

For each day, you have a 28% chance of getting a sculpt.

That's 28/100.

Getting the same sculpt for the next 5 days?

That's 28/500.

A 5.6% chance.

You are lucky, just in the worst possible way.

_{EDIT: Might have done the math wrong, someone confirm all this.}

Edited December 14, 2017 by (PS4)LeBlingKing69

[PhotriusPyrelus]

24 minutes ago, DeMonkey said:

Melee Riven twice?  O.o  Also, whoever made that needs to learn to sort their data set.  Lastly, Resource drop *chance* booster?  Super lame.

 

EDIT:

Just now, (PS4)LeBlingKing69 said:

A sortie a day. 

For each day, you have a 28% chance of getting a sculpt.

That's 28/100.

Getting the same sculpt for the next 5 days?

That's 28/500.

A 0.056% chance.

You are lucky, just in the worst possible way.

_{EDIT: Might have done the math wrong, someone confirm all this.}

Isn't it .28 ^5?  Or .1721%  Still incredibly lucky.

Edited December 14, 2017 by PhotriusPyrelus

[DeMonkey]

Just now, PhotriusPyrelus said:

Melee Riven twice?  O.o  Also, whoever made that needs to learn to sort their data set.  Lastly, Resource drop *chance* booster?  Super lame.

Eh, blame DE. It's from their official site.

[Entharias]

17 minutes ago, MystiKasT said:

I'd love for someone good in statistics to tell me the probability of me having got those 5 sculptures 5 times in a row.

0.17%

[DeadlyGrub]

6 minutes ago, (PS4)LeBlingKing69 said:

A sortie a day. 

For each day, you have a 28% chance of getting a sculpt.

That's 28/100.

Getting the same sculpt for the next 5 days?

That's 28/500.

A 5.6% chance.

You are lucky, just in the worst possible way.

_{EDIT: Might have done the math wrong, someone confirm all this.}

The math is incorrect on this thats the math for a 5.6% chance on a single day to get the percent chance  it's astronomically low then again I got endo 12 times in a row so yeah :P

The math for the correct percent is 28/100^5 which is 0.1721%

Edited December 14, 2017 by DeadlyGrub
decimal error

[Sablesword]

8 minutes ago, PhotriusPyrelus said:

Melee Riven twice?  O.o  Also, whoever made that needs to learn to sort their data set.  Lastly, Resource drop *chance* booster?  Super lame.

I believe that one is a standard melee riven and the other is a Zaw melee riven. 

I could be wrong about this, but I think the Resource Drop Chance booster can affect sentient core drops. At least, I remember getting a lot more cores from the same amount of killing when I had a booster. 

[phoenix1992]

12 minutes ago, Sablesword said:

I believe that one is a standard melee riven and the other is a Zaw melee riven. 

I could be wrong about this, but I think the Resource Drop Chance booster can affect sentient core drops. At least, I remember getting a lot more cores from the same amount of killing when I had a booster. 

Zaw rivens drop from melee rivens =.=.

And here is the thing towards OP and others....

You see if you are in a squad you all get the same reward, yeah?
Can you be sure that everyone in the squad is eligible for rivens (aka has free riven slot)?

Play solo for the last sortie and you will see less anasa.

[(PSN)robotwars7]

2 minutes ago, phoenix1992 said:

Can you be sure that everyone in the squad is eligible for rivens (aka has free riven slot)?

you can still get a Riven with full slots, it just forces you to dissolve one of your current Rivens for Endo the moment you return to your ship. Literally did this today.

as for OP, RNG giveth and taketh away: yesterday I got nearly a full AkBolto Prime from my first relics, today I got nothing but a Mirage Prime Chassis, which was on someone else's relic. usually i find you'll have one day of great luck, then a week of bad luck, and a variable amount of neutral luck until you get lucky again and the cycle repeats itself.

[phoenix1992]

1 minute ago, (PS4)robotwars7 said:

you can still get a Riven with full slots, it just forces you to dissolve one of your current Rivens for Endo the moment you return to your ship. Literally did this today.

 

I have yet to see this situation on PC, while I have run sorties with full capacity a lot (by accident mostly).

[(PSN)robotwars7]

Just now, phoenix1992 said:

I have yet to see this situation on PC, while I have run sorties with full capacity a lot (by accident mostly).

it's true, I've done it twice now. first time I had to sacrifice a Glaxion Riven, this time my Detron Riven got axed (and replaced with a Furis Riven.. ugh.) it's best to only do Sorties when you have spare slots, but having full Rivens doesn't affect your drop chances for a veiled Riven reward at all. it's just you can't even view your new Riven without first dissolving an old one then and there.

[phoenix1992]

1 minute ago, (PS4)robotwars7 said:

it's true, I've done it twice now. first time I had to sacrifice a Glaxion Riven, this time my Detron Riven got axed (and replaced with a Furis Riven.. ugh.) it's best to only do Sorties when you have spare slots, but having full Rivens doesn't affect your drop chances for a veiled Riven reward at all. it's just you can't even view your new Riven without first dissolving an old one then and there.

Hey, I am not saying "it is not happening". 
From my experience - it has yet to happen, but dropping the pugs for the last sortie has upped my non anasa rewards in the long run. Now i get endo and kuva =.=

[(PSN)robotwars7]

1 minute ago, phoenix1992 said:

Hey, I am not saying "it is not happening". 
From my experience - it has yet to happen, but dropping the pugs for the last sortie has upped my non anasa rewards in the long run. Now i get endo and kuva =.=

I know, I think it's because I'm not too bad at getting Rivens. not bothered about endo, the Kuva is useful though.

[Buff00n]

Don't think about it as a 0.17% chance.  Think of it as about 1 chance in 580.  Given the fact that tens of thousands of players have been playing Sorties with Rivens since November of last year, there are probably thousands of players that have been as "unlucky" as you at some point.  I myself have seen 5 and 6 sculptures in a single week.

[PhotriusPyrelus]

Why are ayatan sculptures even on the drop table?  Endo is already there, and that's all the sculptures are good for.  Seems redundant to me.  In fact, ayatan sculptures in general seem redundant to me.  I'd rather they be extremely rare decorations for our ship than just another form of Endo.  But no one asked me so...

[(XBOX)Torminious]

Buff00n has the right idea.

 

A small chance of something occurring should not be looked at as evidence that it should not happen, but as a certainty that eventually it will happen.  Then you can celebrate that you were the one to witness this rare event.

Edited December 15, 2017 by (XB1)Torminious

[(XBOX)Moodster1986]

I have got kuva 2 days in a row so far with nothing to use it on sense i have no rivens atm if it makes ya feel any better

Edited December 15, 2017 by (XB1)Moodster1986

[TzXtetriC]

You complain about getting sculptures and I want more of them as reward. I see them as plat, you see them as annoying.

Tastes and opinions for all minions. 🎉🎉

[(XBOX)AyersyBears]

I hear you OP, for the last 7 days, I've had Endo/ Sculpture for 6 of them, and a Credit Booster for one.

[(PSN)kishteralt]

WAIT..are you telling me you can get other rewards from sorties than sculpture? Are you Frigging kidding me? 

[VoxGray]

Now I'm curious..what are the abysmal chances of my astonishing streak of 14 Ayatans in a row that I got a few months ago?