Is it true that Vauban Prime Chassis only drops after wave 40?

[PLSdontKillMeee]

I've confirmed with other players that the drop chance of Vauban Prime Chassis is 5%. But there are people like me who did T4D more than 50 times and still don't get the chassis, so I am starting to believe that the rumors are true. Come to think of it, I got the systems at the 40min mark as well. So, "Rotation C" is excluding wave 20 now, huh? The fact that R5 fusion cores are in the Rotation C drop table is already cancerous enough.

EDIT: I did not come up with this question, this is a question raised by many people I met in recruit chat, so I began to wonder about the truth. If you are here to pour salt instead of providing an answer and preferably some proof, then your voice is not very welcomed here.

Edited May 25, 2016 by PLSdontKillMeee

[kubbi]

Solo run.

Spoiler

 

[(PSN)IIIDevoidIII]

No. Rotation C is Rotation C. Vauban Prime Chassis can drop on any 20 Wave mark.

[(PSN)obsidiancurse]

Got mine on 20

[MasterBongHere]

i got mines at wave 20

[ranks21]

it drops on c (20 mins) I got 1 after around 10 keys.

[(PSN)IIIDevoidIII]

2 minutes ago, PLSdontKillMeee said:

Ok, but what are the chances of not getting the chassis after that many tries. It would be pure RNG if it was just me, but my friends and my other clan members have been farming for the chassis for days.

 

If you've completed 50 T4D keys to Wave 40, and if the drop chance is 5%, the chance of not receiving the part is 0.6%.

Though, still, this is statistical. No matter how many times you run it the drop chance is the same each time.

[Roboplus]

6 minutes ago, PLSdontKillMeee said:

Ok, but what are the chances of not getting the chassis after that many tries. It would be pure RNG if it was just me, but my friends and my other clan members have been farming for the chassis for days.

Buddy, me and our clan leader teamed up the day Volt Prime came out and had every part 4 hours after release.

Two weeks later we were the only ones in our 30+ member clan that had him and didn't buy Prime Access. I can't tell you how many runs I did just trying to help others get it.

You don't have a gradually increasing chance of getting something just because you've done it a bunch of times. Each attempt is independent. If it's a 5% chance, it's a 5% chance every time.

[Skaleek]

22 minutes ago, PLSdontKillMeee said:

I've confirmed with other players that the drop chance of Vauban Prime Chassis is 5%. But there are people like me who did T4D more than 50 times and still don't get the chassis, so I am starting to believe that the rumors are true. Come to think of it, I got the systems at the 40min mark as well. So, "Rotation C" is excluding wave 20 now, huh? The fact that R5 fusion cores are in the Rotation C drop table is already cancerous enough.

Actually statistically improbable, i think its more likely you've done about 20 runs, and it feels like 50. I'm not calling you a liar, buuut the stats are. Yeah the R5's are a giant middle finger to all of us, but that's just how DE's been doing business for the past few years.

Edited May 24, 2016 by Skaleek

[Me.KayOh]

The answer to the question is, no.

but you can go ahead and believe whatever you want to believe. you've created a thread, asked a question and when you've received an answer you do not want to hear, you make that a problem. It begs to ask, why you've created the thread on the basis of a question in the first place.

And after you convince yourself by whatever means, the answer will still be no.

Also just for clarification, Random Number Generation cannot be determined by Confidence Intervals and Confidence Levels.

[PLSdontKillMeee]

I am convinced now that the rumors are wrong. 

This is my first time posting in the Warframe Forums. I am very grateful for all the fast replies to my question.

However, there are people who don't seem to understand that I am simply asking a question, not making a statement. I did not mean to start any keyboard fights, but I did defend myself to the very end when I was called a liar, as it is against my faith to lie.

Edited May 25, 2016 by PLSdontKillMeee

[Dobermann92]

I don't have the chassis nor the systems, so RNG hates me as usual. Not to mention about other prime parts. (I got my first Saryn Prime chassis 2 days ago though.)

Edited May 24, 2016 by Dobermann92

[PLSdontKillMeee]

3 hours ago, Skaleek said:

Actually statistically improbable, i think its more likely you've done about 20 runs, and it feels like 50. I'm not calling you a liar, buuut the stats are. Yeah the R5's are a giant middle finger to all of us, but that's just how DE's been doing business for the past few years.

That is exactly why I started this thread. STATISTICALLY IMPROBABLE stuff is happening to me right now. But no, I for sure went through 50 C rotations, 17-18 keys of my own were used, the rest were either from friends or recruit chat. The day when Vauban Prime came live, I had near zero ducats, now I have enough for manymanymany baros to come. In fact, I went and did T4D all day today after posting this thread, still no chassis.

[PLSdontKillMeee]

6 hours ago, GoneBlank said:

By my calculations, assuming a 5% drop chance, after 50 runs

number of runs until success = log(1 - 0.926)/log(1 - 0.05) - 1 = 50

So 92.6% of the population would have obtained the item after 50 runs. Hence, 7.4% of the population would still be unsuccessful after 50 runs. So OP I wouldn't exactly describe your current situation as rare. 

 

Thank you, I really do appreciate the math you've provided. Now I have motivation to do some more runs before I simply give up and wait for the price of the chassis to go down. I have up-voted you : ), keep up the good work! 

Edited May 25, 2016 by PLSdontKillMeee

[taiiat]

1 minute ago, PLSdontKillMeee said:

but drop the salt will ya.

you're the one that's making up unfounded lies because you're salty. 

i don't entertain psychological projection. good day.

[TheSteelRat]

22 Rotation Cs and I still don't have my vauban systems.  I am having fun calculation the odds of it happening, and the chance of it happening on the next run.  Planning on doing a solo run to see how long i can go, and if i can get it

[GoneBlank]

By my calculations, assuming a 5% drop chance, after 50 runs

number of runs until success = log(1 - 0.926)/log(1 - 0.05) - 1 = 50

So 92.6% of the population would have obtained the item after 50 runs. Hence, 7.4% of the population would still be unsuccessful after 50 runs. So OP I wouldn't exactly describe your current situation as rare. 

 

For background:

 

[PLSdontKillMeee]

Just now, kalikilic said:

The answer to the question is, no.

but you can go ahead and believe whatever you want to believe. you've created a thread, asked a question and when you've received an answer you do not want to hear, you make that a problem. It begs to ask, why you've created the thread on the basis of a question in the first place.

And after you convince yourself by whatever means, the answer will still be no.

Also just for clarification, Random Number Generation cannot be determined by Confidence Intervals and Confidence Levels.

Not to argue with you, but where exactly did you see me making a problem out of an answer I don't wanna hear? I made "No" the best answer to this thread, and when someone tried to judge me and label me, I still admitted the usefulness of the comment, see for yourself.

[Zhoyzu]

40 minutes ago, taiiat said:

[Citation Needed]

jumping to conclusions for no reason

coming up with lies for no reason

complaining the universe is out to get you because raisons

 

take your pick of any of those.
Digital Extremes has better things to do than to screw with Reward Pools constantly and make them nonfunctional. a Reward Pool is always the same pool.

loved that episode

[PLSdontKillMeee]

14 minutes ago, kubbi said:

Solo run.

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Thank you very much, this is all I needed to see. Answer and proof.

[PLSdontKillMeee]

6 hours ago, kalikilic said:

you've created a thread, asked a question and when you've received an answer you do not want to hear, you make that a problem.

 

Also, you seem to have misplaced the order of events, I asked a question, received answer and approved it. However when this man jumped in and tried to insult me, all I did was try to talk some sense into him before he could label me as a liar. Anyways, I have received the proof that I wanted to see and do not wish to bother with trouble makers, I have far better things to do. 

Edited May 25, 2016 by PLSdontKillMeee

[taiiat]

[Citation Needed]

jumping to conclusions for no reason

coming up with lies for no reason

complaining the universe is out to get you because raisons

 

take your pick of any of those.
Digital Extremes has better things to do than to screw with Reward Pools constantly and make them nonfunctional. a Reward Pool is always the same pool.

[PLSdontKillMeee]

1 minute ago, (PS4)IIIDevoidIII said:

If you've completed 50 T4D keys to Wave 40, and if the drop chance is 5%, the chance of not receiving the part is 0.6%.

Though, still, this is statistical. No matter how many times you run it the drop chance is the same each time.

Ah, there you go, some math backing up my concerns, I deeply appreciate it, my good sir.

[PLSdontKillMeee]

2 minutes ago, taiiat said:

you're the one that's making up unfounded lies because you're salty. 

i don't entertain psychological projection. good day.

There is nothing psychological here, I believe only in the statistics when it comes to drop chances. You, my good sir, are speaking in an irritating tone. You could have just cleared away my concerns by leaving only the useful part of your comment.

[PLSdontKillMeee]

7 hours ago, taiiat said:

you're the one that's making up unfounded lies because you're salty. 

Also, why are you essentially calling me a liar when all I did was ask a question? I did not insist on any statement.

Edited May 25, 2016 by PLSdontKillMeee

[PLSdontKillMeee]

2 minutes ago, (PS4)IIIDevoidIII said:

No. Rotation C is Rotation C. Vauban Prime Chassis can drop on any 20 Wave mark.

Ok, but what are the chances of not getting the chassis after that many tries. It would be pure RNG if it was just me, but my friends and my other clan members have been farming for the chassis for days.