The quoted 12.50% drop rate for Damaged Necramech Engines/Pods from the Wiki don't seem quite right to me.

[onilink888]

For the past 2 weeks-ish, I've been running nothing but T3 Iso Vault bounties, and I've noticed that the drop rates on the Wiki don't reflect what I've gotten in 120+ runs, as shown here:

I've seen a bunch of other people saying they were drowning in Casings and Weapon Pods too, but me and 5 other people would only be anecdotal. However, there's a much bigger sample pool to draw from, and that's Warframe Market. See, if you go there, you'll see there's a supply of Casings and Weapon Pods that's just as disproportionate as what you've seen above. They go for a single plat, whereas the Engines and Pods go for 7-10. I can't see this as purely coincidental and think the abundance of the former 2 parts and the relative scarcity of the latter 2 reflect the lopsided drop rates.

For further anecdotal evidence, I contacted 8 traders to confirm if they were seeing results like I am, and they said they were. What's more, I spent about a half a day scouring trade chat to see if anyone wanted to trade Casings/Weapon Pods for Engines/Pods. Not a single person wanted to. It was either Casings for Weapon Pods (or vise-versa) or Engines for Pods (or vise-versa).

If you looked at the wiki, you'd think they'd be equal trades, but the real world just doesn't point to that being the case.

So.

Has anyone else done copious amounts of Iso Vault runs? What were your results? And can anyone explain the disparity I'm experiencing as well as the stock and value disparities existing in the markets to reconcile the supposedly equal drop rates between these parts?

Edited August 31, 2023 by onilink888

[(PSN)jaggerwanderer]

There is no bad luck protection. Just so it doesn't screw over the results, after each run you should sell the part so none exist in your inventory. Or trade it to a mule account. You'll start to notice the drop rate listed is accurate. Do note how those percentage are calculated. Because we sure don't know how DE got those numbers.

[Leqesai]

This is just how RNG works. 

My numbers look like this:

47 casings
9 engines
9 pods
37 weapon pods
0 barrels
1 stock

12.5% chance for something to drop means 87.5% that it won't. If you run the numbers a million times you'd have a much more accurate representation of the percentage. 120 runs is simply not enough to give a fair representation of percentages if you're trying to make qualitative sense of it through quantitative data. 

Edited August 31, 2023 by Leqesai

[BroDutt]

Wait till you start farming Damaged Necramech Weapon Part

[(PSN)Unstar]

Could be bad luck.  Unfortunately, that's the thing with probability: while it's unlikely that you'll roll a dice 100 times and never see a certain value, it is always possible.  And given enough people, it's nearly guaranteed that some of them will experience this unlikely luck in aspects of their experience.

That said, it could also be that the wiki is wrong.  It's a community-created wiki, after all, and the drop rates for the parts in question do not appear to be listed in the officially exported drop tables.

[onilink888]

24 minutes ago, Leqesai said:

12.5% chance for something to drop means 87.5% that it won't. If you run the numbers a million times you'd have a much more accurate representation of the percentage. 120 runs is simply not enough to give a fair representation of percentages if you're trying to make qualitative sense of it through quantitative data. 

I've said that my experience was anecdotal though and pointed to a far bigger sample size in Warframe Market where you see the same disparity. How is it that this many people, yourself included, are being screwed by RNG in the exact same way? That points to the figure being wrong rather than this being RNG shenanigans, no?

Here's my loot from the Wolf of Saturn Six Recall event:

Did 1100~ runs back then and these numbers accurately represent what's on the Wiki (3.948% for the BP and Motor and 13.552% for the Handle and Head). Had about 17 Motors more than I had BPs (which I traded), which I would attribute to RNG.

From what I've experienced, the people I've talked to, as well as what I'm seeing on WM, I think the numbers are just wrong here.

Edited August 31, 2023 by onilink888

[Leqesai]

11 minutes ago, onilink888 said:

I've said that my experience was anecdotal though and pointed to a far bigger sample size in Warframe Market where you see the same disparity. How is it that this many people, yourself included, are being screwed by RNG in the exact same way? That points to the figure being wrong rather than this being RNG shenanigans, no?

Here's my loot from the Recall event:

Did 1100~ runs back then and these numbers accurately represent what's on the Wiki (3.948% for the BP and Motor and 13.552% for the Handle and Head). Had about 17 Motors more than I had BPs (which I traded), which I would attribute to RNG.

From what I've experienced, the people I've talked to, as well as what I'm seeing on WM, I think the numbers are just wrong here.

I wouldn't call these numbers "screwed".

The numbers might be wrong but does it really matter? You know you're going to have to farm the thing, so either do it and use your own numbers to your satisfaction or don't do it and farm something that gives you more pleasure. Like the other person said, the official drop tables don't include the data for these things so the wiki absolutely could be wrong. 

I just don't care one way or the other though. If I know the thing does drop I'll continue to farm it.

At the end of the day these drop numbers are sooooooo much better than drop rarity from old MMOs I played like PSO.

The Sealed J sword in PSO has a 1/12603 drop chance....
That is 0.0079%

 

So in my mind... anything with even a 1% drop chance is way better than the crazy low chances of that game.

[onilink888]

7 hours ago, Leqesai said:

I wouldn't call these numbers "screwed".

The numbers might be wrong but does it really matter? You know you're going to have to farm the thing, so either do it and use your own numbers to your satisfaction or don't do it and farm something that gives you more pleasure. Like the other person said, the official drop tables don't include the data for these things so the wiki absolutely could be wrong. 

I just don't care one way or the other though. If I know the thing does drop I'll continue to farm it.

At the end of the day these drop numbers are sooooooo much better than drop rarity from old MMOs I played like PSO.

The Sealed J sword in PSO has a 1/12603 drop chance....
That is 0.0079%

 

So in my mind... anything with even a 1% drop chance is way better than the crazy low chances of that game.

I have just about everything in the game, and I'm not complaining, mate. I'm only doing this for some easy plat pocket change as Voidrig sets have a relatively massive demand and a great SMA. It's in the process of farming them that I noticed the numbers might be borked. :P

Edited September 1, 2023 by onilink888

[Leqesai]

4 minutes ago, onilink888 said:

I have just about everything in the game, mate, I'm only doing this for some easy plat pocket change as Voidrig sets have a relatively massive demand and a great SMA. It's in the process of farming it that I noticed the numbers might be borked. :P

Gotcha. I figured that was the case. 

I'd just look at it like "well I'm going to be farming these anyway so the drop rate is kind of irrelevant" and just brainlessly zone out while I farm. I'd use time as my marker and just sell whatever I could get in like a week or something.

[(XBOX)TheWayOfWisdom]

1 hour ago, (PSN)Unstar said:

That said, it could also be that the wiki is wrong.  It's a community-created wiki, after all, and the drop rates for the parts in question do not appear to be listed in the officially exported drop tables.

From U30.9

Quote

Enemy Necramechs now have a 50% chance to drop a Necramech part across the board, evenly distributed.

https://forums.warframe.com/topic/1286070-update-3090-prime-resurgence/

So if it's not 12.5%, then it's likely a bug.

[Zekkii]

Look at the prices on warframe.market:

• Weapon Pod and Casing are 1 Platinum
• Engine and Pod are 6~8 Platinum

It's not a case of RNG, the drop rates are just off.

[onilink888]

1 minute ago, Zekkii said:

Look at the prices on warframe.market:

• Weapon Pod and Casing are 1 Platinum
• Engine and Pod are 6~8 Platinum

It's not a case of RNG, the drop rates are just off.

Yup yup.

[Leqesai]

10 minutes ago, (XBOX)TheWayOfWisdom said:

From U30.9

https://forums.warframe.com/topic/1286070-update-3090-prime-resurgence/

So if it's not 12.5%, then it's likely a bug.

Based on that info it definitely does look bugged. 

[(PSN)Unstar]

20 minutes ago, (XBOX)TheWayOfWisdom said:

From U30.9

Quote

Enemy Necramechs now have a 50% chance to drop a Necramech part across the board, evenly distributed.

https://forums.warframe.com/topic/1286070-update-3090-prime-resurgence/

So if it's not 12.5%, then it's likely a bug.

Oooh, nice find!

9 minutes ago, Leqesai said:

Based on that info it definitely does look bugged. 

Yep, this is probably worth someone making a bug report on so DE can look into it.

[Leqesai]

2 minutes ago, (PSN)Unstar said:

Oooh, nice find!

Yep, this is probably worth someone making a bug report on so DE can look into it.

[nslay]

41 minutes ago, Zekkii said:

Look at the prices on warframe.market:

• Weapon Pod and Casing are 1 Platinum
• Engine and Pod are 6~8 Platinum

It's not a case of RNG, the drop rates are just off.

That's a neat use of Warframe Market!

Would be cool if Warframe Market implemented something like a prediction market for things like drop rates. You have contracts for drop rate, in, say, increments of ten percentiles, and then Warframe players can bid on contracts for what they think is the predicted drop rate. After some time, the Warframe Market can look at its own loot trading prices to figure out the most likely correct drop rate.

[CephalonCarnage]

It is a bug. The wiki updates it drop tables from the warframe drop tables that are published by DE.

However, looklng at the 2nd Aug 2023 drop tables the necramech parts are not present. (I don't know why as they used to be there and DE says the droptables are auto-generated)

It definitely is that the drops are how you are seeing them. When it first came out the drop rate for pod and engine was something daft like 2%. I remember someone gave me the other 2 parts for free in a trade because they were as good as free back then.

 

HOWEVER!

I remember they changed the drop rates to an equal amount per item and I found the Update note. So something is broken in DE land. The wiki is right, but the game is wrong.

• Enemy Necramechs now have a 50% chance to drop a Necramech part across the board, evenly distributed. The battle required to defeat an enemy Necramech is not easy nor quick. This increased chance of getting a Necramech part helps to reduce the time investment  needed in order to gather the mandatory parts to build your first Necramech.

 

Found the original too. they used to be:

Necramech	Additional Item Drop Chance: 30.00%
	Damaged Necramech Casing	Common (38.72%)
	Damaged Necramech Weapon Pod	Common (38.72%)
	Damaged Necramech Engine	Uncommon (11.28%)
	Damaged Necramech Pod	Uncommon (11.28%)

	the drop tables lost the necramech drop chances between the 4th Nov and 20th Nov 2020 regeneration.

Edited September 2, 2023 by CephalonCarnage
added drop references

[onilink888]

50 minutes ago, CephalonCarnage said:

*snip*

Thanks for submitting the bug report.

Edited September 2, 2023 by onilink888