Warframe hit its yearly avg concurrent player number low in July

[Silligoose]

Last year Warframe hit 5-year lows on Steam in terms of avg concurrent player numbers, as well as peak concurrent player numbers for a month in November 2022 and October 2022 respectively. This year DE released Duviri - content that has been in development for over 4 years, received a lot of hype and despite that, the game has hit yearly lows in July 2023 in terms of avg concurrent player numbers according to Steam Charts.

Is Warframe going to hit new 5-year lows in 2023? Should DE start taking notes from Euro Truck Simulator 2, a game that is as old as Warframe, that even now is only about 12% and 20% all time concurrent avg and peak highs according to Steam Charts? Should DE instead try making an ARPG Warframe mode, since that seems to be the hot thing right now? 

Put down your pitchforks - this isn't a "ded game is ded" thread. While the game's avg concurrent player numbers are trending down based on data we have available (Steam Chart avg concurrent player data used), a lot of people are still playing and Warframe may be more profitable than ever!

[CephalonCarnage]

Profit isn't always a good thing, look at Apple charging you for stuff you don't need or want and forcing you to buy new stuff when the old gets grubby.

I noticed something from the charts that doesn't look good. July is traditionally a good month for DE, whether its holiday season or some fancy update that brings all the boys to Wisp's ... yard doesn't really matter. The difference in average players:

• Jul 2023: -5.5k
• Jul 2022: +2.5k
• Jul 2021: +12k
• Aug 2020: 'cos covid delayed things so August was the July that year: +20k
• Jul 2019: +13k
• Jul 2018: +20k

July tempts everyone back, but this year they stayed away. Big question is why so bad. Have we run out of content to bring players back, and not attracting enough new ones? The Duviri update didn't bring in 20k either, its a bit of a failure given the marketing spend on it. I have a feeling Duviri wasn't the great success for new players, and also wasn't enough to keep old players around. But that's just my hunch.

No matter the above though, DE should not chase whatever is du jour. ARPG is the hoit thing, well Elden Ring was the hot thing last month, and they chased that tail to mediocre success. If they chanse the Baldur's gate tail it'll be a huge expense for also limited success. DE has an IP they should chase. Ninjas in Space. There is nothing to compare to that unique selling point. DE must (IMHO) get back to its roots of doing the thing that made it popular in the first place. Forget other games.

[Cerikus]

52 minutes ago, Silligoose said:

Put down your pitchforks - this isn't a "ded game is ded" thread.

Damn... what a disappointment. I was ready to throw a tantrum.

[Circle_of_Psi]

1 hour ago, Silligoose said:

Put down your pitchforks - this isn't a "ded game is ded" thread.

Yet people will still treat it like once because they can't stand negativity about their precious game, you should've bothered with a thread like this Goose, you're gonna get proven wrong, even if your right.  

[Genitive]

2 minutes ago, Circle_of_Psi said:

Yet people will still treat it like once because they can't stand negativity about their precious game, you should've bothered with a thread like this Goose, you're gonna get proven wrong, even if your right.  

You could say that the OP is ...

Wait for it...

...

A silly goose!

Spoiler

I'll see myself out.

[trst]

As always the usual culprit is almost certainty content drought.

Duviri didn't release with a Syndicate grind, massive resource grinds, some raid boss that players need to optimize around some new gimmick, nor did it even have a lot of gear to grind for. All we really got was Drifter Intrinsics (which is a very fast grind to max out), one weapon part grind (also a fast grind), all but one resource from Duviri are trivial to get, and with the later update a weapon and frame added to a shop (also a very fast grind to finish).

The only actual grinds were Pathos Clamps and Genesis Adaptors while Clamps are only really a grind for those farming Adaptors. But we're also at the point where active players already have most of the Adaptors and the more casual players got the ones they wanted. Plus there's no incentive to get all of them as they don't even award mastery.

You could go and count Circuit grind for Arcanes but none of those were particularly eye catching and most players gave up on that grind immediately anyways once they saw how slow progress was.

 

So really there wasn't a whole lot for players to keep engaged with regarding Duviri.

[Cerikus]

4 minutes ago, trst said:

As always the usual culprit is almost certainty content drought.

Duviri didn't release with a Syndicate grind, massive resource grinds, some raid boss that players need to optimize around some new gimmick, nor did it even have a lot of gear to grind for. All we really got was Drifter Intrinsics (which is a very fast grind to max out), one weapon part grind (also a fast grind), all but one resource from Duviri are trivial to get, and with the later update a weapon and frame added to a shop (also a very fast grind to finish).

The only actual grinds were Pathos Clamps and Genesis Adaptors while Clamps are only really a grind for those farming Adaptors. But we're also at the point where active players already have most of the Adaptors and the more casual players got the ones they wanted. Plus there's no incentive to get all of them as they don't even award mastery.

You could go and count Circuit grind for Arcanes but none of those were particularly eye catching and most players gave up on that grind immediately anyways once they saw how slow progress was.

 

So really there wasn't a whole lot for players to keep engaged with regarding Duviri.

Slow down partner! It seems you've used common sense and logic. Sorry to say, but

[SneakyErvin]

37 minutes ago, CephalonCarnage said:

Profit isn't always a good thing, look at Apple charging you for stuff you don't need or want and forcing you to buy new stuff when the old gets grubby.

I noticed something from the charts that doesn't look good. July is traditionally a good month for DE, whether its holiday season or some fancy update that brings all the boys to Wisp's ... yard doesn't really matter. The difference in average players:

• Jul 2023: -5.5k
• Jul 2022: +2.5k
• Jul 2021: +12k
• Aug 2020: 'cos covid delayed things so August was the July that year: +20k
• Jul 2019: +13k
• Jul 2018: +20k

July tempts everyone back, but this year they stayed away.

Because we didnt have a big update in July this year.

July 2022 = NW release.

July 2021 = Sisters of Parvos

Duviri on the otherhand was released late in April and saw the player increases there and the month after. Which adds up to roughly the same numbers as SoP did in 2021.

Not sure what increased the numbers in 2019 though. Wukong rework in June then Prime release in July? No idea.

[MaxTunnerX]

I dont really think WF is that profitable. For at least a year it has been following the same pattern I saw in older MMOs that died, Desperately trying to grab a branch to pull themselves up somehow. Quantity over quality, variety over polishing, power creep, buff creep, stuff like that. When the game developers of the other MMOs Im speaking about were done with their games, the games didnt even look like what they started as, some even changed the business model. Like just keep calm and do your job properly, no need to do weird experiments and stretch content so thin its full of holes. Players wont like it anyway. Stay true to your original concept that people loved, and in the worst case scenario die with honor as a game people loved and played or even still play today by various means. But yeah, theres no way for anyone to know until they decide to show us the financial records, but then again, that usually only happens after the game is done or too far gone to save.

[TeaHands]

One could guess Mr. "Steal yo Player" aka Baldur's Gate 3 is still grabbing a lot of attention atm. Like Elden Ring did. I'm sure we'll see something inspired from BG3 in an upcoming update lol.

 

Side note, I have not seen Destiny 2 this low in player count in a while. Don't know what happened but I hope DE doesn't take any notes from Bungie.

[Circle_of_Psi]

43 minutes ago, Genitive said:

You could say that the OP is ...

Wait for it...

...

A silly goose!

  Reveal hidden contents

I'll see myself out.

Godammit..

[Corvid]

1 hour ago, MaxTunnerX said:

Like just keep calm and do your job properly, no need to do weird experiments and stretch content so thin its full of holes. Players wont like it anyway. Stay true to your original concept that people loved, and in the worst case scenario die with honor as a game people loved and played or even still play today by various means.

Well, I guess the game's been dying since 2013, because DE's experimentation with Warframe's gameplay started all the way back then (if not before).

Seriously, if you look at footage from when Warframe first entered open beta, it's almost unrecognisable compared to today. So if you're trying to argue that DE trying out new things is somehow a symptom of the game's downfall, you're going to have to explain why it's been going strong for ten years despite showing that "symptom" since the very beginning.

[MaxTunnerX]

15 minutes ago, Corvid said:

Well, I guess the game's been dying since 2013, because DE's experimentation with Warframe's gameplay started all the way back then (if not before).

Seriously, if you look at footage from when Warframe first entered open beta, it's almost unrecognisable compared to today. So if you're trying to argue that DE trying out new things is somehow a symptom of the game's downfall, you're going to have to explain why it's been going strong for ten years despite showing that "symptom" since the very beginning.

Theres a big difference between experimenting in beta or close after release and doing it 5-8 years later.

[Tiltskillet]

2 hours ago, CephalonCarnage said:

noticed something from the charts that doesn't look good. July is traditionally a good month for DE, whether its holiday season or some fancy update that brings all the boys to Wisp's ... yard doesn't really matter. The difference in average players:

• Jul 2023: -5.5k
• Jul 2022: +2.5k
• Jul 2021: +12k
• Aug 2020: 'cos covid delayed things so August was the July that year: +20k
• Jul 2019: +13k
• Jul 2018: +20k

No idea how big a factor it is, but Tennocon happens in July normally.  Exceptions being 2020 (01 Aug) and this year.

[SneakyErvin]

1 hour ago, MaxTunnerX said:

I dont really think WF is that profitable.

Except their revenue reports have stated otherwise over the years. And Leyou getting bought by Tencent for billions mostly in order for them to obtain the WF IP also indicates otherwise. The IP that was also Leyou's most profitable one. Even during 2019 which was their worst year WF was the top seller on Steam for F2P games. During that same year they also increased their revenue over the previous year. Not by the same amount as the years prior to that, but still an increase none the less.

6 minutes ago, Tiltskillet said:

No idea how big a factor it is, but Tennocon happens in July normally.  Exceptions being 2020 (01 Aug) and this year.

Likely a big factor, though I'd assume the years with the interactive relays have been the most impactful in that regard. It would also explain the huge player increase in Aug 2020 since tennocon was 5 days in and Deimos released 5 days prior to the end of the month. If it was just Deimos that impacted the count it wouldnt have showed a 20k increase for the month in just 5 days.

[MaxTunnerX]

4 minutes ago, SneakyErvin said:

Except their revenue reports have stated otherwise over the years. And Leyou getting bought by Tencent for billions mostly in order for them to obtain the WF IP also indicates otherwise. The IP that was also Leyou's most profitable one. Even during 2019 which was their worst year WF was the top seller on Steam for F2P games. During that same year they also increased their revenue over the previous year. Not by the same amount as the years prior to that, but still an increase none the less.

Ah, good to know. I was really getting scared. Sadly this takes away my go to explanation as to why things look the way they look in the game. Nevermind.

[Metalgearfox]

2 hours ago, Silligoose said:

the game has hit yearly lows in July 2023 in terms of avg concurrent player numbers according to Steam Charts.

Does this make perfect sense to anyone else?
My backlog is like; Tears of the Kingdom, Baldurs Gate 3, Final Fantasy 16, Remnant 2, rogue legacy 2, dead cells castlvania dlc... AND THAT'S JUST THIS YEAR.

I need like... a year off of work to just play steam games. 

[SneakyErvin]

3 minutes ago, MaxTunnerX said:

Ah, good to know. I was really getting scared. Sadly this takes away my go to explanation as to why things look the way they look in the game. Nevermind.

Even if the experimentation doesnt impact their sales as far as we can see since the revenue gain has been up, up, up, I still agree with you that they should cut down on the experimentation. I'd like to see them flesh out all the current systems we've gotten due to their extreme experimentation over the years. Improvements to RJ, Mechs, Archwing, more content for Duviri, Liches, Sisters and so on along with core gameplay additions. Maybe some reworks of old modes turned into new ones so the old are still there for players that enjoy them, right inline with Pablo's reasoning regarding why they dont like to reworks and replace things and instead prefer to make new modes.

[trst]

28 minutes ago, MaxTunnerX said:

Theres a big difference between experimenting in beta or close after release and doing it 5-8 years later.

Warframe's entire life has been experimentation after experimentation.

Conclave: 10 years old

Archwing: 9 years old

Prime Vault: 8 years old

Parkour 2.0: 8 years old

Operators: 7 years old

Plains of Eidolon: 6 years old

Nightwave: 4 years old

Railjack: 4 years old

Necramechs: 3 years old

Prime Resurgence: 2 years old

And now Duviri.

_{*+/-1 on dates as I'm ignoring the exact months these released for simplicity}

 

You might not like that they're still doing it but they're literally just continuing to do what they've been doing every single step of the way.

Edit: Also iirc the game is still in open beta anyways as you still need to agree to the open beta policy upon installing the game.

[Metalgearfox]

4 minutes ago, SneakyErvin said:

I still agree with you that they should cut down on the experimentation.

I just want harder content.

They should have randomized boss rushes, no revives, with affixes that you can upgrade like keys. The bosses should have additional mechanics instead of just falling over. 

Just use what you've already made in the game, modify it with some new mechanics, make it mythic+. 

[Corvid]

30 minutes ago, Tiltskillet said:

No idea how big a factor it is, but Tennocon happens in July normally.  Exceptions being 2020 (01 Aug) and this year.

They have gone on record saying that Tennolive's announcements lead to a bigger surge of new players than even the releases of the announced content, so there being a spike in player counts at Tennocon would make sense.

[SneakyErvin]

1 minute ago, Metalgearfox said:

I just want harder content.

They should have randomized boss rushes, no revives, with affixes that you can upgrade like keys. The bosses should have additional mechanics instead of just falling over. 

Just use what you've already made in the game, modify it with some new mechanics, make it mythic+. 

Heck if I could pick I would run SP eximus stronghold any day of the week, preferably with a similar Eximus to normal ratio as wave 3 of the new bonus portal defense in Duviri. I also wouldnt mind some actual boss content. For me Jackal added to undercroft was a good addition. It actually made it feel more boss-like than the current normal version, it felt a bit more like the OG Jackal.

I like the boss rush you mention, reminds me of Danger Room Chips in Marvel Heroes. Which managed to revitalize old bosses in the game in new content that was actually hard. WF could really make use of a similar system to Danger Room or Maps in PoE, with affixes that both increase the danger of the enemies and some that also reduces your power, like fully or nearly reducing your damage output from different damage sources to zero. Heat enemies that deal increased damage as heat while also being immune to heat themselves.

DE would just have to be willing to also increase the rewards similar to what was/is done in those games. More negative affixes, more/better loot aswell. Which in WF could be solved by allowing us multiple rolls per rotation and then we pick the one we want.

[MaxTunnerX]

15 minutes ago, trst said:

Edit: Also iirc the game is still in open beta anyways as you still need to agree to the open beta policy upon installing the game.

This might actually explain a lot :D But in any case its time to stop horsing aroun and increase quality of all the previous content before adding new one.

[MaxTunnerX]

 

[trst]

2 minutes ago, MaxTunnerX said:

This might actually explain a lot :D But in any case its time to stop horsing aroun and increase quality of all the previous content before adding new one.

But the problem with that is what defines and warrants "increased quality"?

Archwing has been neglected for sure but DE put it on the chopping block when one of the last mentions of it was deleting the stand alone nodes entirely.

Conclave doesn't get a lot of attention but it has always had low engagement and a lot of players are actively against PvP.

PoE has been updated multiple times. At what point is it, or anything similar, just "done" instead of needing more?

Railjack does everything that was promised (minus the single cutscene players wanted for some reason). It could use more content but again at what point is it "done"?

Then there's even the issue of requiring entirely new content to justify changes in the first place as players won't return to something they finished just because it's now "better". Plus there's already a precedent for low engagement on updated content as evident from frame reworks not doing much to usage numbers.