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71 "failed" Incubation Trying To Get Chesa, Been Trying Since U17 Launch


Adaptor-Face
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I'm seriously starting to wonder if something is wrong with their random number generator at this point, we could potentially have another Asheron's Call situation where some players have seeds which are much better than others. It seems more and more likely as I play the game and interact with other players. I have friends who are the "lucky" ones and those who can't ever seem to get anything. 

 

We know that the drop tables are weighted, and that very rarely does DE ever give us fair chances on new things. But even considering that, the amount of times I've run void missions and gotten the same drops in the same order over and over again, and the screen shots and stories I see and hear from other players makes we wonder if they actually have a really bad PRNG or just a terrible implementation.

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so many things in this game are awfully rigged, im 100% sure neurode drops got stealth nerfed, and we all know the chance for a chesa is abysmal even if you were to spend 5k plat

 

seeing how baro is turning into primed uselessness and prisma disappointment, multishot changes which will break the entire game, im starting to feel really driven away

 

the latest syndicate primaries were not really an amazing move if you are steel/arbiters/suda

(i kinda like my simulor) but i feel cheated with this useless garbage :(

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Welp. After an exciting hour and a half of farming for my last egg I'm logging for the day. I guess if you were really serious I'll catch you some other time in-game. I give up on trying to beat RNG so it'll be sitting there for a long time.

At least farming Void RNG gives me ducats~ I'm tired of running hundreds of earth captures for nothing but a credit/time sink: Just too frustrating. Really hope they improve this system instead of releasing Kavats into something so poor.

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10 - 15 trys, all different types, some Lotus, no Chesa.

 

Actually having to try several times not bother me too much, I can always buy prints if I choose to give up.

The credit cost for one incubation does seem a tad insane though.

 

What actually bothers me:

- not being able to use another Kubrow in the meantime (Carrier P scrub here)

- not being able to hunt for eggs when I want to (also I had 3 eggs drop in one mission once... haha... gg)

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Drop tables are bad? RNG generator is bad?

Answer is very simple:

RNG _by_desing_ is BAD.

It is simple mechanic, easy to implement and use.. and it's overused in many games (not only mmo).

Lets do some math:
Assume that:
- we have perfect RNG generator
- each incubation is completely random (e.g. does not depends on previous incubations)
- all 5 kubrows have same chance (20%). (yeah.. right.. it's probably <5% :P)

Now.. what is chance of getting Chesa kubrow:
- in 1 incubation: 20% (thats obvious)
- in 2 incubations: 1-(1-0,2)^2 = 0,36 (36%) (that's less obvious - many people think "40%")
- in 3 incubations: 1-(1-0,2)^3 = 0,488 (48,8%)
- in 10 incubations: 1-(1-0,2)^10 ~= 0,8926 (~89,26%)
- in 30 incubations: 1-(1-0,2)^30 ~= 0,99876 (~99,876%)

You may think, that 99,876% is very big chance.. its almost sure that you get chesa..
and.. you are right.

But.. put this numbers in context.
Chance 99,876% means that.. per 10'000 players.. there will be 12 unlucky ones that do not get chesa in 30 incubations!
Even if every kubrow has same chance, and it is quote big: 20% per incubation!

But what if chance is lower (10%)? (it probably is)
Result: 95,761% chance for chesa in 30 incubations.. so per 10'000 players.. ~424 will be unlucky.

With 5% chance: 78,536% in 30 incubations.. 2146 unlucky players per 10'000
It is also: 99,408% chance in... 100 incubations!.. that means 59 per 10'000 players will so unlucky that will not get this kubrow.. after 100 incubations!

And.. you must realize.. that 5% chance.. is.. big! In good-old-days when drop tables were not encrypted, you can see some void drops with 0,5%.
According to wiki DE still has very bad habit to use extremally small chances (see http://warframe.wikia.com/wiki/Nightmare_Mode and drop chance of some nightmare mods: 0,670%. LOL).
So.. I won't be suprised, that chesa has lower chance that 5%.

But.. as I already said: EVEN with 20% chance, some unlucky players won't get it after 30 incubations.
And.. with such large playerbase (certainly larger than 10'000 used in those examples), such bad thing will happens.. BY DESIGN!
 

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