How many Litch's you need to kill to get all weapons - The Numbers

[Ady88]

I thought I would calculate how many Kuva Litch's you would need to kill to get all weapons. Rather than guessing, I thought I would use the same calculations the Wiki uses to give players and expected value, and a nearly guaranteed value. Given there are 13 kuva weapons, the chance of your next Litch having a weapon you don't yet have drops for each weapon you gain (of course).

Full Calculations here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16J691BkMyAcxF281HfxtvDIskYREBljs0Hjoi8dIcII/edit?usp=sharing

Therefore to get all Kuva weapons you would need:

Expected Litch Kills (65% chance) : 43 Kills
Nearly Guaranteed (99% chance) : 160 Kills

Please feel free to correct me if my calculations are wrong.

Edited November 5, 2019 by Ady88

[lukinu_u]

What's about required kills to get all weapons with +85% bonus ? (not asking for each element since you just have to repeat this with different frames)

[Ady88]

1 minute ago, lukinu_u said:

What's about required kills to get all weapons with +85% bonus ? (not asking for each element since you just have to repeat this with different frames)

I was looking at this more from a MR gain perspective, not sure what the chances are of an +85% bonus on the weapon.

[DrivaMain]

8 minutes ago, Ady88 said:

Nearly Guaranteed (99% chance) : 160 Kills

If we multiply that by 4 hours (My experience of grinding the murmus + mods to kill one lich) we would get... 640 hours of grinding.... assuming RNG isn't totally screwing you up. If you are killing 1 lich per day that will take more you more than a year to get all of the weapons you wanted.

 

[Ady88]

10 minutes ago, DrivaMain said:

If we multiply that by 4 hours (My experience of grinding the murmus + mods to kill one lich) we would get... 640 hours of grinding.... assuming RNG isn't totally screwing you up. If you are killing 1 lich per day that will take more you more than a year to get all of the weapons you wanted.

I've been averaging 2-3 hours, but yea my first few were about 4 hours (excluding farming the requiem mods). I got lucky with one Litch and did in less than an hour.

[Genoscythe]

il y a 11 minutes, DrivaMain a dit :

If we multiply that by 4 hours (My experience of grinding the murmus + mods to kill one lich) we would get... 640 hours of grinding.... assuming RNG isn't totally screwing you up. If you are killing 1 lich per day that will take more you more than a year to get all of the weapons you wanted.

 

DE: This is fine.

[Ady88]

4 hours ago, Genoscythe said:

DE: This is fine.

Why do you need free time when you have all those weapons to forma?

[DrBorris]

I did not want to know this. 

[Genoscythe]

il y a 10 minutes, Ady88 a dit :

Why do you need free time when you have all those weapons to forma?

Looking at the recent hotfix, they seem to listen, which is very commendable.

[Ady88]

9 minutes ago, Genoscythe said:

Looking at the recent hotfix, they seem to listen, which is very commendable.

Thanks for pointing me to actually read the notes, looks like some good improvements there.

[(PSN)TONI__RIBEIRO]

5 hours ago, DrivaMain said:

If we multiply that by 4 hours (My experience of grinding the murmus + mods to kill one lich) we would get... 640 hours of grinding.... assuming RNG isn't totally screwing you up. If you are killing 1 lich per day that will take more you more than a year to get all of the weapons you wanted.

 

Content🤣 

Terrible content I mean

Edited November 5, 2019 by (PS4)TONI__RIBEIRO

[Educated_Beast]

I wish there was no RNG on weapon damage, normalized across board for each weapon type (maybe even linear increase each time forma added), then allow us to trade them like syndicate weapons.  

Some people may be fine with 160 runs, I'm not.  I haven't even gotten my first 8 mods yet and haven't spawned a single lich.  

I'd support the DE economy buying them if possible.  We shouldn't have random stats anyway, remember, STORAGE SPACE ON SERVERS!  Why are we paying for riven slots to keep data low, then have more random data.  

I'm calling BS

[NotGustavoM]

As someone who has gotten the same shieldeg for four times in a row... your post alleviates my pain -and- is the final nail in the coffin for me, regarding liches. At least until DE makes the grind less RNG-dependant.

[CephalonSolo]

On 2019-11-05 at 1:13 PM, Ady88 said:

I thought I would calculate how many Kuva Litch's you would need to kill to get all weapons. Rather than guessing, I thought I would use the same calculations the Wiki uses to give players and expected value, and a nearly guaranteed value. Given there are 13 kuva weapons, the chance of your next Litch having a weapon you don't yet have drops for each weapon you gain (of course).

Full Calculations here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16J691BkMyAcxF281HfxtvDIskYREBljs0Hjoi8dIcII/edit?usp=sharing

Therefore to get all Kuva weapons you would need:

Expected Litch Kills (65% chance) : 43 Kills
Nearly Guaranteed (99% chance) : 160 Kills

Please feel free to correct me if my calculations are wrong.

Of course if u consider every weapon have the same chance to spawn , maybe dunno archgun have only the 2%. XD 

[(PSN)segulibanez65]

15 minutes ago, CephalonSolo said:

Of course if u consider every weapon have the same chance to spawn , maybe dunno archgun have only the 2%. XD 

Wait, are there different weapon "drop" chances?  All I want is that rifle with the 50% crit chance, which is hard enough to get in a 1/13 chance.  If there are "rares" in this system that would be a nightmare.  Surely they all have the same chance... I hope

[CephalonSolo]

Just now, (PS4)segulibanez65 said:

Wait, are there different weapon "drop" chances?  All I want is that rifle with the 50% crit chance, which is hard enough to get in a 1/13 chance.  If there are "rares" in this system that would be a nightmare.  Surely they all have the same chance... I hope

Muahauahuah

[Ady88]

10 minutes ago, (PS4)segulibanez65 said:

Wait, are there different weapon "drop" chances?  All I want is that rifle with the 50% crit chance, which is hard enough to get in a 1/13 chance.  If there are "rares" in this system that would be a nightmare.  Surely they all have the same chance... I hope

I don't believe there is any evidence to suggest there are different weightings for weapons.

[(PSN)segulibanez65]

1 minute ago, Ady88 said:

I don't believe there is any evidence to suggest there are different weightings for weapons.

The only reason I'm starting to wonder is the amount of duplicates being spoken of, usually involving the karak, brakk, seer, quartakk.  I've done 3 lich's on my pc acct and gotten the brakk 2x myself, the other a karak.  There's a thread up currently of someone getting 3 karak in a row, so...

Still telling myself this is just normal rng shenanigans and they are all equal in their chance to show up until there is sufficient sample size to say otherwise, but I am starting to have some doubts

[trst]

And yet this is more or less exactly what the forums have been asking for since we were waiting for Fortuna to drop.

People don't like having nothing to do between updates or that they can finish an entire update within a week of it's release? Well enjoy a system that'll take the average player months to "finish". The best part is that if this system has consistent engagement after it goes awhile without direct updates to it then we can only expect more such systems.

[Lachann]

On 2019-11-05 at 1:24 PM, DrivaMain said:

If we multiply that by 4 hours (My experience of grinding the murmus + mods to kill one lich) we would get... 640 hours of grinding.... assuming RNG isn't totally screwing you up. If you are killing 1 lich per day that will take more you more than a year to get all of the weapons you wanted.

 

Where are you getting "more than a year" from? If the expected number of kills is 43 and the "nearly guaranteed" number is 160, at 1 kill per day it'll take you 6 weeks to reach the expected number, and less than half a year to reach 99% chance.

[Educated_Beast]

12 minutes ago, Lachann said:

Where are you getting "more than a year" from? If the expected number of kills is 43 and the "nearly guaranteed" number is 160, at 1 kill per day it'll take you 6 weeks to reach the expected number, and less than half a year to reach 99% chance.

That is unrealistic for the mass majority of humans.  At best, I see people taking 3 hours to kill a lich, not including farming mods (I still don't have all 8).  

3 hour playtime is 3 days for me.  I have a job and kids.  So we are up to 18 weeks by your estimate!  Then, forget doing sorties, running kuva floods, farming for forma / traces, or generally just playing a sandbox style game I enjoy (well, used to more). 

Your estimate turns this into a job.  This is a rediculous amount of RNG and doesn't account for bad rolls or alternate builds.

Your also talking to a guy that required 120 8-wave missions to get all of khora.  Now I hate the frame and I never go to onslaught. 

This grind will kill the game, definatley turn most normal people off this mini quest / side game (I say that because it is not integrated with the rest of Warframe and not possible to passively farm while playing).  Your playtime is going to give you hemmoroids and other medical issues.  Seriously, turn it off after an hour.  

The solution is simple, remove random stats, make them normalized per weapon, make them tradable like syndicate weapons.

Edited November 6, 2019 by Educated_Beast

[Lachann]

It's not my estimate, the person I'm citing specifically mentioned "1 kill per day". I'm just pointing about that the numbers don't add up.

[DLOArceus]

5 minutes ago, Educated_Beast said:

That is unrealistic for the mass majority of humans.  At best, I see people taking 3 hours to kill a lich, not including farming mods (I still don't have all 8).  

3 hour playtime is 3 days for me.  I have a job and kids.  So we are up to 18 weeks by your estimate!  Then, forget doing sorties, running kuva floods, farming for forma / traces, or generally just playing a sandbox style game I enjoy (well, used to more). 

Your estimate turns this into a job.  This is a rediculous amount of RNG and doesn't account for bad rolls or alternate builds.

Your also talking to a guy that required 120 8-wave missions to get all of khora.  Now I hate the frame and I never go to onslaught. 

This grind will kill the game, definatley turn most normal people off.  Your playtime is going to give you hemmoroids and other medical issues.  Seriously, turn it off after an hour.  

The solution is simple, remove random stats, make them normalized per weapon, make them tradable like syndicate weapons.

Ok but no one cares. If people with a job and kids, which certainly aren't the majority of the playerbase considering that in a few days there were around 60000 liches created, wants these weapons so much then they'll get them via trading, but i'm sure you already knew that option is coming right?

Edited November 6, 2019 by DLOArceus

[Remedyheart]

On 2019-11-06 at 3:26 AM, (PS4)TONI__RIBEIRO said:

Content🤣 

Terrible content I mean

Free content. That you opted into...and somehow don't want it. So don't do Lich Hunts my man. The weapons are well worth it and even getting the ones you don't want have been immensely enjoyable for many. Maybe you might have some with them? Consider the other 100s of weapons in the game.

13 feels like a small chunk but they are undoubtedly all top tier weapons. But granted...you don't need Kuva weapons to have a good time. I'm a collector myself and find the challege very rewarding and fruitful in the endeavor needed to get them all. Allready spent close to 2000 hours anyways.

[(PSN)segulibanez65]

52 minutes ago, trst said:

And yet this is more or less exactly what the forums have been asking for since we were waiting for Fortuna to drop.

People don't like having nothing to do between updates or that they can finish an entire update within a week of it's release? Well enjoy a system that'll take the average player months to "finish". The best part is that if this system has consistent engagement after it goes awhile without direct updates to it then we can only expect more such systems.

People want SUSTAINABLE content that doesn't burn them out after 10hr because it is built right on top of an old system that many people either a) have played to death b) hate the kuva siphons/floods in the first place c) both.

If I could just farm all the mods and never have to touch the relics again that would be a huge boon to the system.  But even if that were to happen, there is still only 1 weapon I want.  So if I get that weapon on my 5th lich, why would I ever touch the system again?  These aren't fun like eidolons, nor do you have the chance at getting highly sought-after rewards for your efforts like you do with eidolons.  What am I going to do with a kuva brakk?  Sure, its better than the old one, but it still feels bad to use.  

We'll have to see how DE handles it in the coming weeks.  I'd love to WANT grind this system for months of enjoyment, but in its current incarnation that is just not the case for myself and many others