100% Status Shotguns: buff or nerf?

[xarvh]

Per last Dev Stream, the 100% status shotgun singularity is going to get fixed.
With it, I understand status chances for shotguns will be tripled.

As a proud owner of a 100% status Kohm, I was curious about what this actually means.

Before every single pellet would proc, which for the Kohm means 12 pellets = 12 procs per shot.

I'm not sure what happens after the changes.

With tripled status, the Kohm can hit above 300% status, but... that has to be divided by the pellets?
Does this mean that I can /expect/ 3 procs per shot instead?
In this case it's a massive nerf.

Am I doing the math right?

 

Quote

Shotguns have a unique Role here based on a very patch-work history with how they interact with Status Chance. A Shotgun that shoots 99% Status Chance would give you 35% (roughly) status per pellet. 100% Status Gives you 100% Status per pellet. This huge jump in performance happens with just a 1% gain - why? Well, to answer that we have to look at our choice to make what the UI conveys reality. It would feel broken to shoot a Shotgun with 100% Status and not see a perfect spread of Effects. In reality, to make Status consistent we have to treat Shotguns as a special case.

Shotguns as a special case means we have buffed the Status Chance of all Shotguns by x3 or greater. The UI now behaves to show the reality that you are determining Status Chance per pellet. 

In further additions, previously unstackable Status Effects (Puncture, Cold, Magnetic, Radiation, Viral) will now have stacking effects. We’ll have more information on this later as it develops!

 

[XaoGarrent]

Yeah, you got it right. Any status shotgun that's not an automatic shotgun is probably going to be D tier after this change.

[WhiteMarker]

8 minutes ago, xarvh said:

Does this mean that I can /expect/ 3 procs per shot instead?
In this case it's a massive nerf.

I'm obviously stupid, as I'm asking the following:
Why would that be a nerf for the Khom, if you were to get more procs?

[xarvh]

7 minutes ago, XaoGarrent said:

Yeah, you got it right. Any status shotgun that's not an automatic shotgun is probably going to be D tier after this change.

LOL, I can't see how Kohm dispo could get any higher. XD


 

 

Just now, WhiteMarker said:

I'm obviously stupid, as I'm asking the following:
Why would that be a nerf for the Khom, if you were to get more procs?

Right now, I'm getting a lot of procs.
After the changes take effect, I /think/ I will get a lot less procs.
After the changes Kohm will become quite useless.

[(NSW)Sniperfox47]

Do keep in mind that while yes, status chance will be lower, you no longer need to S#&$face your shotgun with all 4 60/60 mods. That means you can do more to get the status you want to proc.

 

Just counting elemental damage, if the proc per pellet is only 50% but you're 2 times as likely to proc the status *you actually want* because you can toss in the 90% mods, you're flat with where you were. And you're doing more damage. And you're likely getting better damage bonuses.

 

Edit: obviously not the case for the Khom but does help some of the single shot shotguns.

 

6 minutes ago, WhiteMarker said:

I'm obviously stupid, as I'm asking the following:
Why would that be a nerf for the Khom, if you were to get more procs?

Before it got 1 proc per pellet (i.e. 12 procs per shot) now it gets 1 proc per 4 pellets ( i.e. 3 procs per shot)

Edited February 29, 2020 by (NSW)Sniperfox47

[kwlingo]

Well from what I heard you can go over 100% so possible 2proc/ pellet and if your  at 300% status your can do 3proc/ pellet. This is no going to give Condition overload a fighting chance vs Blood Rush hopefully

[Jokie155]

Here's hoping Kuva Kohm has it's range ungimped now that the 100% breakpoint is no longer a deciding factor.

Edited February 29, 2020 by Jokie155

[(NSW)Sniperfox47]

3 minutes ago, kwlingo said:

Well from what I heard you can go over 100% so possible 2proc/ pellet and if your  at 300% status your can do 3proc/ pellet. This is no going to give Condition overload a fighting chance vs Blood Rush hopefully

You'd have to get to over 1200% percent status on the Khom for it to have over 100% status per pellet.

 

The Tigris might be possible, you only have to hit 800% status chance and it'll start with 90%, but even then you won't get much above 100% per pellet.

 

Where shotguns will be even more useful for is clusters... Which is what they were supposed to be useful for currently. May get less procs but they'll be more consistent in their type.

 

 

[WhiteMarker]

11 minutes ago, xarvh said:

Right now, I'm getting a lot of procs.
After the changes take effect, I /think/ I will get a lot less procs.
After the changes Kohm will become quite useless.

 

9 minutes ago, (NSW)Sniperfox47 said:

Before it got 1 proc per pellet (i.e. 12 procs per shot) now it gets 1 proc per 4 pellets ( i.e. 3 procs per shot)

but why do you think that? I read what DE posted. The said having a Status chance of 100% will result in 2 procs. Over 200% will result in 3 procs.
So having 300% status chances means that each pellet will get you 3 procs. You will get more procs with the change, not less.
So where are you getting that you will get less procs?

[(NSW)Sniperfox47]

No. Shotguns are staying how they are now, just the UI bug with status chance is being fixed.

 

Shotguns have status chance per pellet, but the UI currently multiplies that by the number of pellets.

 

So a shotgun with 30% status chance and 8 pellets (Tigris Prime) actually has a 3.75% chance of proccing status per pellet. The new system will multiply that by 3 and properly display status chance per pellet. In this case that's 11.25% status chance per pellet.

 

It's worth noting that the current build has a bug that's existed for a long time. If total status chance gets above 100% before multishot (i.e. 12.5% per pellet) it would give every pellet 100% status chance. That's being removed. A gun with 100% status chance total will now have the proper 12.5% chance per pellet.

 

@WhiteMarker they explained it better and in more detail in the devstream.

Edited February 29, 2020 by (NSW)Sniperfox47

[WhiteMarker]

5 minutes ago, (NSW)Sniperfox47 said:

 

@WhiteMarker they explained it better and in more detail in the devstream.

Maybe I will watch the stream later. But fact is the post is worded differently. The post tells us that Shotguns will get buffed just they way everything else will get buffed (when it comes to status)

I mean there is this one sentence: It would feel broken to shoot a Shotgun with 100% Status and not see a perfect spread of Effects.

This tells me that your fear is based in nothing.

Edited February 29, 2020 by WhiteMarker

[FRTE_Ret5o]

A buff and a nerf depends if the shotgun reached 100% or if it didnt.

100%-->nerf

1-99%-->buff

But i think that now we will see more status end game weapons

[kwlingo]

6 minutes ago, (NSW)Sniperfox47 said:

No. Shotguns are staying how they are now, just the UI big with status chance is being fixed.

 

Shotguns have status chance per pellet, but the UI currently multiplies that by the number of pellets.

 

So a shotgun with 30% status chance and 8 pellets (Tigris Prime) actually has a 3.75% chance of proccing status per pellet. The new system will multiply that by 3 and properly display status chance per pellet. In this case that's 11.25% status chance per pellet.

 

It's worth noting that the current build has a big that's existed for a long time. If total status chance gets above 100% before multishot (i.e. 12.5% per pellet) it would give every pellet 100% status chance. That's being removed. A gun with 100% status chance total will now have the proper 12.5% chance per pellet.

 

@WhiteMarker they explained it better and in more detail in the devstream.

Didn't watch stream but thanks for the info. So any pellet base weapons are nerfed now. Good bye favorite new Kuva weapon Brakk. But I guess this is their way of balancing Kohm and Mara Detron

Edited February 29, 2020 by kwlingo

[(NSW)Sniperfox47]

1 minute ago, WhiteMarker said:

Maybe I will watch the stream later. But fact is the post is worded differently. The post tells us that Shotguns will get buffed just they way everything else will get buffed (when it comes to status)

Yes. If you can get a shotgun to more than 100% status it will proc twice. There are very few shotguns you can get to over 100% status though, because even with a 3x buff to status chance most of the status heavy shotguns are actually around the 10% mark if you ignore the UI bug.

 

1 minute ago, kwlingo said:

Didn't watch stream but thanks for the info. So any pellet base weapons are nerfed now. Good bye favorite new Kuva weapon Brakk. But I guess this is their way of balancing Kohm and Mara Detron

I wouldn't say that so lightly.

It is a huge buff if status didn't hit 100%.

 

If the weapon hit 100% and got the benefits of the bug it's a mixed bag because while your status chance per pellet will be lower, you'll have more mod space to make that status chance actually matter, such as using the 90 damage mods of the element you want in place of the second set of 60/60 mods in order to weigh the proc chance towards the procs you actually want.

 

[kwlingo]

20 minutes ago, (NSW)Sniperfox47 said:

You'd have to get to over 1200% percent status on the Khom for it to have over 100% status per pellet.

 

The Tigris might be possible, you only have to hit 800% status chance and it'll start with 90%, but even then you won't get much above 100% per pellet.

 

Where shotguns will be even more useful for is clusters... Which is what they were supposed to be useful for currently. May get less procs but they'll be more consistent in their type.

 

 

If they allow rivens and mods to reach this and Im all for it. Instead of 60/60 mods maybe they will be 60/250 mods. 4x250=1000% only having a riven could make it go over 1200%. We will see 🙂

 

Edited February 29, 2020 by kwlingo

[taiiat]

dramatically increasing the Status Chance Stat is an overall upgrade at both the low and high end of things. not to mention the new options for Status Mods too.
for a... Kohm, matching the same performance with the same Mods would only need a Status Chance of, well, the exact same Status Chance as now. if you were already pushing a Shotgun to 100% Status, the same amount of Status would push it to 100% after changing the Formula anyways, even if you didn't change the Status Chance Stat at all.

dramatically increasing it means less Mods needed to reach 100% or more likely meaning dramatically increasing the Status output. not that making Kohm apply like 50 Status Effects per Shot would actually be desirable, that would be a waste vs adding more Damage at that point.

 

14 minutes ago, kwlingo said:

This is no[w] going to give Condition overload a fighting chance vs Blood Rush hopefully

as if it wasn't already very good or better, and as if a good Melee Weapon in such a scenario wouldn't already have been using both anyways beacause it unquestioably was the most Damage to begin with.

2 minutes ago, (NSW)Sniperfox47 said:

No. Shotguns are staying how they are now, just the UI big with status chance is being fixed.

Shotguns have status chance per pellet, but the UI currently multiplies that by the number of pellets.

that's not a UI Bug, that's the UI representing how it actually works.

[WhiteMarker]

6 minutes ago, (NSW)Sniperfox47 said:

Yes. If you can get a shotgun to more than 100% status it will proc twice. There are very few shotguns you can get to over 100% status though, because even with a 3x buff to status chance most of the status heavy shotguns are actually around the 10% mark if you ignore the UI bug.

So you are agreeing with me that the Khom doesn't get nerfed. So what was that all about before when saying it gets nerfed?

[(NSW)Sniperfox47]

41 minutes ago, kwlingo said:

If they allow rivens and mods to reach this and Im all for it. Instead of 60/60 mods maybe they will be 60/200 mods. 4x250=1000% only having a riven could make it go over 1200%. We will see 🙂

 

The 60/60 mods are staying as is. At least for now.

41 minutes ago, taiiat said:

that's not a UI Bug, that's the UI representing how it actually works.

It definitely is not. Other than the rare edge case of 100% status, all of the shotgun statuses show a summed percent of all the projectiles. This is why multishot increases status chance.

 

A 30% status chance on the Tigris is actually 8 separate  3.75% chances of proccing

 

And if you know literally anything about statistics you'll know that 8 instances of a 3.75% chance does not give you a 30% chance of proccing because probabilities are multiplicative, not additive.

 

A theoretical sniper that currently displays a 100% status chance after applying a 100% multishot means that you're actually getting 2 instances of 50% status chance. That's actually a 75% chance to apply at least 1 status (not 100%) and a 25% chance to apply none.

 

They're removing the additive status on multiple projectiles and showing multishot as a separate stat now because that's what's *actually* happening.

Edit: Yes I know for Shotguns it's not strictly additive and is instead some ridiculous formula involving exponentiation. The additive method gives a decent approximation to prove the point and massively simplified the maths. Some of the numbers above may not be exact values, that doesn't change the end result.

32 minutes ago, WhiteMarker said:

So you are agreeing with me that the Khom doesn't get nerfed. So what was that all about before when saying it gets nerfed?

You *cannot* get the Khom to 100% status chance per projectile. It has a status chance of 2.08% per projectile. That's being trippled to 6.25% per projectile. You cannot get 6.25% to over 100% with mods.

 

The "all projectiles getting 100% status if total of projectiles hits 100%" bug is being fixed as stated in the workshop

"Shotguns as a special case means we have buffed the Status Chance of all Shotguns by x3 or greater. The UI now behaves to show the reality that you are determining Status Chance per pellet. "

And again they explained exactly what I've said above on the devstream. It's a quirk with how shotguns have worked for years, and is explained in perfect detail on the wiki if you don't trust me.

Edited February 29, 2020 by (NSW)Sniperfox47

[xarvh]

BTW, the 100% status thing is not a bug, it is inherent to the equation currently used to calculate chance per pellet.

Status Chance per Pellet = 1 − (1 − Status Chance)^{(1 ÷ Pellet Count)}

https://warframe.fandom.com/wiki/Multishot

If I understand correctly, this equation will simply become a linear relation.

[(NSW)Sniperfox47]

3 minutes ago, xarvh said:

BTW, the 100% status thing is not a bug, it is inherent to the equation currently used to calculate chance per pellet.

Status Chance per Pellet = 1 − (1 − Status Chance)^{(1 ÷ Pellet Count)}

https://warframe.fandom.com/wiki/Multishot

If I understand correctly, this equation will simply become a linear relation.

The fact that it inherently comes out of them using a flawed formula is exactly what makes it a bug... What do you think bugs are? They don't just appear out of nowhere. Most of them are unintended consequences of edge cases of otherwise intended algorithms...

[Madway7]

I'm okay with the idea of the change, but I'm not fine with the general x3 toward the current actual status chance.

I think it should instead be looked at on a per shotgun bases, like the Tigris Prime should be at least 20% base status/pellet seeing how few shots it gets off before needing to reload. 

 

 

 

 

[(PSN)robotwars7]

people gonna be doing math over shotguns like:

once again though, nobody here has mentioned that the pure status mod, Shotgun Savvy is getting a huge buff to 90%, so you would have to take hat into account as well. ultimately though we aren't gonna know for sure if it's a nerf/buff until it's released. 

[taiiat]

41 minutes ago, (NSW)Sniperfox47 said:

The fact that it inherently comes out of them using a flawed formula is exactly what makes it a bug... What do you think bugs are?

and whether or not one wants to think that way - it isn't a UI Bug, because the UI is following how it literally works. the UI isn't lying to you, that's a printed out result of the exact same way the Gun works when you go to actually shoot something with it.

[KingOfRisen]

8 minutes ago, (NSW)Sniperfox47 said:

explained in perfect detail on the wiki if you don't trust me

You should probably read the wiki yourself, since you're making a bunch of false statements. This is the relevant segment in the wiki.

 

41 minutes ago, (NSW)Sniperfox47 said:

Shotguns have status chance per pellet, but the UI currently multiplies that by the number of pellets.

False. What the UI shows you is the calculated probability of at least one pellet procing a status effect. This is not the same as simply multiplying the chance per pellet with the number of pellets. The UI uses the formula "1 - (1 -  Chance per Pellet)^{Pellet Count}". And just because it is flawed does not mean it suddenly calculates something completely different like "Status Chance = Chance per Pellet * Pellet Count" or whatever.

 

42 minutes ago, (NSW)Sniperfox47 said:

It's worth noting that the current build has a bug that's existed for a long time. If total status chance gets above 100% before multishot (i.e. 12.5% per pellet) it would give every pellet 100% status chance.

This is not a bug. The formula DE used is simply not the most suited for the job because it's behavior changes drastically when certain values are approached.

Again, the UI currently shows the chance of at least one pellet procing. Even if each pellet had 99% status chance, there's still that extremely rare case in which every pellet will roll "no proc". It might only happen once in a million shots, but you would not have a 100% guarantuee that every shot gives you at least one proc. So when the UI shows you a chance of 100% to proc at least once, every pellet needs to have 100% status chance itself to eliminate the possibility for that rare case to occur.

 

12 minutes ago, (NSW)Sniperfox47 said:

This is why multishot increases status chance.

The reason why multishot increases the displayed status chance is because increasing the amount of pellets in a shot means that more pellets have to roll "no proc" in a row for no proc to occur at all in that shot, which gets progressively less likely. This is completely different from just adding up the individual chance of more pellets.

 

To be fair, none of this information will really matter anymore pretty soon, since it gets changed anyway and we'll just have to see how exactly the new values and formulas will work out.

[(NSW)Sniperfox47]

13 minutes ago, KingOfRisen said:

You should probably read the wiki yourself, since you're making a bunch of false statements. This is the relevant segment in the wiki.

 

False. What the UI shows you is the calculated probability of at least one pellet procing a status effect. This is not the same as simply multiplying the chance per pellet with the number of pellets. The UI uses the formula "1 - (1 -  Chance per Pellet)^{Pellet Count}". And just because it is flawed does not mean it suddenly calculates something completely different like "Status Chance = Chance per Pellet * Pellet Count" or whatever.

 

This is not a bug. The formula DE used is simply not the most suited for the job because it's behavior changes drastically when certain values are approached.

Again, the UI currently shows the chance of at least one pellet procing. Even if each pellet had 99% status chance, there's still that extremely rare case in which every pellet will roll "no proc". It might only happen once in a million shots, but you would not have a 100% guarantuee that every shot gives you at least one proc. So when the UI shows you a chance of 100% to proc at least once, every pellet needs to have 100% status chance itself to eliminate the possibility for that rare case to occur.

 

The reason why multishot increases the displayed status chance is because increasing the amount of pellets in a shot means that more pellets have to roll "no proc" in a row for no proc to occur at all in that shot, which gets progressively less likely. This is completely different from just adding up the individual chance of more pellets.

 

To be fair, none of this information will really matter anymore pretty soon, since it gets changed anyway and we'll just have to see how exactly the new values and formulas will work out.

You do realize that you quoted a bunch of snippets from a post where I had already added an edit saying "yes, it's not truly linear. Yes, it is a more complicated exponential algorithm. No that doesn't actually matter because treating it as linear is a good enough approximation for any unmodded weapon which is what I am using as examples and massively simplifies the maths." Right?

Edited February 29, 2020 by (NSW)Sniperfox47