Jump to content

Drop Rates, Datamines, and Digital Extremes (DDD).


Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, IronWolfSaber said:

What are the odds of getting two receivers in a row?

That can easily be calculated and is 0.02= 0.0004 or equivalently 0.04%

now assuming that you don't care when you get them but you're only interested in getting 2 receivers. To find the number of tries required we model it as a Negative Binomial distributed random variable we get:

Expected number of tries = 2 / 0.02 = 100 tries

Variance around the expectation = 2(2+1)/0.022  = 15000 (~112 when taking square root)

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Kurambik said:

That can easily be calculated and is 0.02= 0.0004 or equivalently 0.04%

now assuming that you don't care when you get them but you're only interested in getting 2 receivers. To find the number of tries required we model it as a Negative Binomial distributed random variable we get:

Expected number of tries = 2 / 0.02 = 100 tries

Variance around the expectation = 2(2+1)/0.022  = 15000 (~112 when taking square root)

 

Well this was more in response of it actually happening to me I just wanted to know the odds. 

 

speaking of which got my 3rd out of 25 keys I started with (still have 12 more ish)

Edited by IronWolfSaber
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Kurambik said:

That can easily be calculated and is 0.02= 0.0004 or equivalently 0.04%

now assuming that you don't care when you get them but you're only interested in getting 2 receivers. To find the number of tries required we model it as a Negative Binomial distributed random variable we get:

Expected number of tries = 2 / 0.02 = 100 tries

Variance around the expectation = 2(2+1)/0.022  = 15000 (~112 when taking square root)

Just out of curiosity, how long does a single run take to complete?

Link to post
Share on other sites

IMPERATOR vandal drops should be equal even if the total rate for each is lower, this is why we have dataminers. 2 percent when everything else is 11 percent is not fair for those that dont have the money to trade or the time to farm for the resources and build the keys to run the balor fomorian sabatoge to have an unequal chance at getting all the parts.

Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Darkvramp said:

IMPERATOR vandal drops should be equal even if the total rate for each is lower, this is why we have dataminers. 2 percent when everything else is 11 percent is not fair for those that dont have the money to trade or the time to farm for the resources and build the keys to run the balor fomorian sabatoge to have an unequal chance at getting all the parts.

Orcus relay is enough to block a lot of people out along with archwing. 

Edited by IronWolfSaber
Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, (PS4)abbacephas said:

Just out of curiosity, how long does a single run take to complete?

IDK but about 3 times as long as it takes to load into the game. Meaning that one forth of the time dedicated to farming the Imperator Vandal is spent staring at the loading screen.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, [DE]Taylor said:

Quoting Balor Fomorian drop tables for visibility. 

Probability is not my friend currently.

After 60 missions

> 5 Barrels

> 5 Blueprints

> ~20,000 endo

>100% tears

Even after ~70% chance of getting it after that many iterations. Just looking for attention. I'm sad. :(

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Darkvramp said:

IMPERATOR vandal drops should be equal even if the total rate for each is lower, this is why we have dataminers. 2 percent when everything else is 11 percent is not fair for those that dont have the money to trade or the time to farm for the resources and build the keys to run the balor fomorian sabatoge to have an unequal chance at getting all the parts.

Why do we need dataminers right now for vandal drop rates when DE just gave us the information out right? What you said doesn't make any sense. 

Plus, it's not like I ever needed a dataminer to be able to tell me that the receiver was a lot rarer than the other two imperator parts, and that fusion cores were by far the most common reward. It was very obvious to me and everyone else already. 

It's supposed to be rare as it was a previous earned event weapon, earned in full already built. And you can keep fighting the Fomorian again every few months and trying again for that that last piece. 

I got the blueprint and barrel over the course of a couple Fomorians, I did it casually. Who knows, it may be a couple more appearances before I get the receiver, but I'm not that worried about it. It's a cool weapon, but my Knux and Grattler serve me well enough already. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, [DE]Taylor said:

Quoting Balor Fomorian drop tables for visibility. 

Time-Sensitive PC Drop Table for the Balor Fomorian
400 ENDO                                            75%
IMPERATOR VANDAL BARREL           11%
IMPERATOR VANDAL RECEIVER        2%
IMPERATOR VANDAL BLUEPRINT     11%

For those concerned as to why this only equals "0.99", it is because they are rounding it too strictly. There are definitely decimals that come after those. The following information has been calculated based on my previous analysis on Warframe Random Number Generation:

Time-Sensitive PC Drop Table for the Balor Fomorian
400 ENDO                                            75.88%
IMPERATOR VANDAL BARREL           11.055%
IMPERATOR VANDAL RECEIVER        2.01%
IMPERATOR VANDAL BLUEPRINT     11.055%

Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, Operative_Shift said:

 

you never fought Activision for taking down your stuff.. so I guess we now know why lol

So your account sharing, "we"... (Hey, your logic!). And yes, the bans your mod's handing out for mentioning % figures in WF chat is exactly your tactics, I completely agree. Transparently so.

Don't worry, I won't ever help anyone in chat in the future.

 

Anyway -

atom? Rockstar did that. DE?

Edited by DawnFalcon
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, [DE]Taylor said:

Quoting Balor Fomorian drop tables for visibility. 

Intresting to see its the same as it was before then. 

Perhaps the next pass on your droptables you could clarify that the difficulty level in your drop tables is the following:

easy level 1-15

medium level 16-25

hard level +26

you used the same spread when it came to ivaras drop table after all. People had to consult the wiki to find the ranges back then as well. 

The % chances wont change but it will be clearer to your players where they should focus their attention if they are after certain relics like in the case with this unvaulting. 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...