Is Onslaught and Khora Blueprints Acquisition DE's worst move yet?

[Deimorne]

16 hours ago, sleepychewbacca said:

I spent a day on Warframe. 10 hours just running ESO back to back. I had pretty much everything in the game prior to that, so I was quite keen on the idea of new junk to mess about it. 

About the 9th hour, I finally completed the Vandals and Khora. Built them, sold some prime junk and rushed the build with plat. 

It was a huge mistake. In hindsight, I should have just casually grinded it for the focus and relics, and if something dropped, hey, there we go. Literally burnout prime. I've not logged in for the last 3 days, and I'll probably have to play something else before I feel like touching Warframe again. 

So I guess I'm trying to say too much of a chance to get something might be a bad thing. But it could definitely use a tweak to the drop chances. 

This is interesting to know.

 

So, you feel you obtained Khora too quickly? Even after a nine hour grind fest?

[SethCypher]

I think Hydroid release, Mesa and Nezha release were worse in terms of part acquisition.

[Deimorne]

2 minutes ago, SethCypher said:

I think Hydroid release, Mesa and Nezha release were worse in terms of part acquisition.

According to the math a previous community member posted back on page two, apparently not. He worked out Kora is by far the worst grind of them all.

[Ryim_Drykeon]

21 hours ago, Buff00n said:

On average it will take a player 22 runs to obtain Equinox, and for 90% confidence you need 33+ runs.  This is less than the 27-51+ runs Khora requires, and each run takes far less than 20 minutes.

 

55 minutes ago, Saratheia said:

According to the math a previous community member posted back on page two, apparently not. He worked out Kora is by far the worst grind of them all.

But the math posted is incorrect.

For Equinox, the drop chances for each component is 12.91% and the drop chances for each Aspect blueprint is 11.28%, with an expected 22-23 runs to obtain each component at least once and 160±40 runs to be nearly guaranteed each component at least once. Not the 33 alluded to.

Khora's math quoted is about right.

However, the times involved are not. Each run for Khora's drops are 5 minutes. You get rewarded for every other zone. So, even at the 51 runs, that equals  minutes 255. Vice the MINIMUM for Equinox of 22 runs taking (on average) 15 minutes equals 330 minutes.

So at worst Khora's grind is still less than Equinox at her best.

Now, I'm willing to admit that Khora's parts also are locked onto rotation drop tables (ie A B C), so you do have to go through the rotation (To rotation C twice actually). Even with this, the 2.5 minute zone times make running it very quick. So while you may have to farm more missions numerically, the time involved is far less.

Edited April 29, 2018 by Ryim_Drykeon
Correction

[rune_me]

Look what happened with Gara when they made her easy to get, because they started giving rewards at every bounty stage. Now we all have dozens and dozens of Gara parts, and each time we get one in a bounty we just sigh and goes "not again".

Harrow, Nidus, Ivara, etc, were different, because none of us has any plans of going back and doing those missions again once we got the frame.

DE however clearly expects Onslaught to be something players will do and want to do even after they get Khora. They want it to be a place you farm focus and relics. And if Khora was like a 20% drop chance, you'd get real sick of seeing Khora parts drop very quickly.

Of course now that DE has removed her drops from elite onslaught, that wouldn't be a problem any more, because people who come to onslaught to farm will likely be doing elite instead of regular. So it was just to say, the reasoning for making the drop chances low on launch made perfect sense to me and was very much welcome. Now they make less sense.

[MystMan]

Do people actually take a break when they grind? Or alternate between game modes?
You're not supposed to spend hours upon hours non-stop grinding the same game mode trying to get loot the moment new content is released.  Khora is just over a week old and already people are unhappy that they haven't gotten her yet. If it was that easy, you'd end up with nothing to do for a long time till new content is released. Spread out the farming over days, not hours.  Have some self-control.

Maybe they should just make this feature universal and not just in Europe

 

I've done 20+ Onslaught runs, I'm not tired of it. I enjoy it even, no matter what drops. I'm still trying to get the 3 rares from Rot C of Elite Onslaught.

TAKE BREAKS!

TAKE BREEEEAAAAKKKS!

[Reifnir]

16 minutes ago, Ryim_Drykeon said:

Each run for Khora's drops are 2 minutes 30 seconds.

Incorrect. 

Rewards only appear on rotations, and those are 5 minutes apart, not 2:30. 

There is no reward at all for odd-numbered waves.

[trst]

No it's not their worst, in fact it's not even bad by any standards.

 

You can't compare Khora's drop rates to other frames as unlike almost every other frame Khora was put in a mode that you should want to play over and over. You wouldn't want to go and kill Ruk or Lephantis hundreds of times after already getting their drops but there is a reason to do so with Onslaught. Some frames are exceptions to this but none reach the level of "replayability" Onslaught has.

 

Also people thinking her rates are to encourage plat sales go ahead and take the tin-foil off, everything is meant to encourage plat sales. Warframe is a F2P and they need plat sales to keep the lights on. Everything in the game is either work to get it for free or pay for it. If everything took no effort to get then nobody would consider using spending plat on items.

[Ryim_Drykeon]

10 minutes ago, Reifnir said:

Incorrect. 

Rewards only appear on rotations, and those are 5 minutes apart, not 2:30. 

There is no reward at all for odd-numbered waves.

Noted. Correction made. Thank you.

[Buff00n]

34 minutes ago, Ryim_Drykeon said:

But the math posted is incorrect.

For Equinox, the drop chances for each component is 12.91% and the drop chances for each Aspect blueprint is 11.28%, with an expected 22-23 runs to obtain each component at least once and 160±40 runs to be nearly guaranteed each component at least once. Not the 33 alluded to.

I'm not sure where those numbers come from, but my guess is they are assuming that you will throw away all the other parts you get while farming for the Day Aspect Neuroptics, and then throw away all the other parts you get while farming for the Day Aspect Systems, then throw away all the other parts you get while farming for the Day Aspect Chassis, and so on.  

The fact that they are all in the same drop table together on the same mission means that you will get them much faster than just considering them one at a time.  I won't argue that 160 runs isn't a guarantee, but that's literally 1 in a million bad luck.  90% will need 34 or fewer.  It just feels longer because Tyl Regor gets tedious fast.

 

43 minutes ago, Ryim_Drykeon said:

However, the times involved are not. Each run for Khora's drops are 5 minutes. You get rewarded for every other zone. So, even at the 51 runs, that equals  minutes 255. Vice the MINIMUM for Equinox of 22 runs taking (on average) 15 minutes equals 330 minutes.

Huh?  I'm talking about the Khora BP and Systems, which are on the C rotation and constitute the bottleneck drops.  To reach the C rotation takes 8 zones, or 20 minutes, every time.  51 runs at 20 minutes each is 1020 minutes, or 17 hours.

[PrivateRiem]

On 4/28/2018 at 10:11 AM, Saratheia said:

I really don't think this is what most of us had in mind.

Speak for yourself. I'm pretty happy with it. Don't care about Khora in the slightest, or the relics, or the drops. It's the only place in the game where I feel like modding my gear has a purpose.

[Misgenesis]

Gara was way, way worse. Khoras acquisition is a blessing compared to bounties before they were refined weeks later.

 

Edited April 29, 2018 by Misgenesis

[Ryim_Drykeon]

3 minutes ago, Buff00n said:

Huh?  I'm talking about the Khora BP and Systems, which are on the C rotation and constitute the bottleneck drops.  To reach the C rotation takes 8 zones, or 20 minutes, every time.  51 runs at 20 minutes each is 1020 minutes, or 17 hours.

Well, as you said, this would be one in a million bad luck. Also, people are going to be going for rotation C first. They may very well get the others along the way. This actually happened to me. I got the BP and Chassis in one run.

Where with Equinox, you have a 12.91% chance to drop a component. Then a 20% chance to get the 1 of 6 needed. So two random chances per run to get what you need. So that's a 20% chance to get the right component after a 12.91% chance to drop any component.

While Khora's drop chance is only 5%, that's 5% for Rotation A (Chassis), 5% for Rotation B(Nueroptics), and then a 5% chance for Rotation C (here a 50% chance to get the right drop BP/System). So that's a 5% chance per Rotation to drop a component. 100% chance of the right drop in A and B rotation with that 5% chance, and a 50% chance for the right drop on the 5% in Rotation C.

While 5% is far less than most drops, the amount of chances you get has increased. Even with the need to hit Rotation C twice.

Then we could get into those parts from relics. Which start at 2% drop chance per component (for a default-Intact Relic) and only go to 10% per component (for a Radiant Relic). While this is 100% chance of the correct drop with that 2-10%.

TL:DR Khora's drop chances are not the best, but far from the worst. Hitting a middle ground, imo.

 

Side Note: While I got all Khora's parts in less than 2 hours, I have yet to get Valkyr Prime's Systems after cracking open over 50 Radiant Relics. RNG can be a #$%@# at times.

[rune_me]

42 minutes ago, Buff00n said:

51 runs at 20 minutes each is 1020 minutes, or 17 hours.

51 runs seems extreme. I'm no math expert, but just going with some head calculations, assuming each of the rotation C drops are 5% (they are actually slightly more), on average you should get it on 30 runs. Sure, some will have to go way more than that. But roughly the same amount of people will have to go way fewer than that as well.

[RayzorDi]

I didn't feel this because i got extremely lucky and only had to do like a total of 15 onslaught runs and only 5 of those being rotation C drops to get all her parts. Now I just need to get kavat dna...

 

[Buff00n]

25 minutes ago, Ryim_Drykeon said:

Also, people are going to be going for rotation C first. They may very well get the others along the way. This actually happened to me. I got the BP and Chassis in one run.

I feel like there's still a misunderstanding here.  The Chassis drops in rotation A.  I'm just talking about rotation C, which contains both the Systems and BP at 5.64% each, and requires a 20 minute commitment to reach.

 

27 minutes ago, Ryim_Drykeon said:

Where with Equinox, you have a 12.91% chance to drop a component. Then a 20% chance to get the 1 of 6 needed. So two random chances per run to get what you need. So that's a 20% chance to get the right component after a 12.91% chance to drop any component.

Huh?  Where are you getting this idea that it's a two stage RNG?  The drop table is public.  The Uranus assassination node drops one Equinox item, chosen at random from eight possibilities.  Each of the two aspect BPs is 12.91%, and each of the six aspect components is 12.91%.  Those eight drops add up to 100%, within rounding errors, meaning one piece is always dropped if you complete the mission.  That's how a drop table works.

On average it will take you 22 runs to get all eight, 33 for 90% confidence, 51 for 99% confidence, 70 for 99.9% confidence.

 

16 minutes ago, rune_me said:

51 runs seems extreme. I'm no math expert, but just going with some head calculations, assuming each of the rotation C drops are 5% (they are actually slightly more), on average you should get it on 30 runs. Sure, some will have to go way more than that. But roughly the same amount of people will have to go way fewer than that as well.

51 runs is the 90% confidence number.  The expected average is 27, or 9 hours.

[sleepychewbacca]

2 hours ago, Saratheia said:

This is interesting to know.

 

So, you feel you obtained Khora too quickly? Even after a nine hour grind fest?

Yeah. 

I have absolutely nothing that interests me in Warframe now. I could of course work on formaing my frames / gear, but the burnout is still there. 

I think it would have been more satisfying in the long run to have just done SO/ESO slowly till the parts dropped. If the Sacrifice is equally as grindy, I'd probably try to stretch it out as long as I can. 

[rune_me]

20 minutes ago, Buff00n said:

51 runs is the 90% confidence number.  The expected average is 27, or 9 hours.

Okay. 9 hours isn't that bad.

It makes no sense to base calculations on 90% confidence. That's just an arbitrary number and the great majority of players will get it much sooner than that. Then we might as well base on the, say, 20% confidence. The only thing that is really meaningful is just to go by the average.

[Ryim_Drykeon]

30 minutes ago, Buff00n said:

Huh?  Where are you getting this idea that it's a two stage RNG?  The drop table is public.  The Uranus assassination node drops one Equinox item, chosen at random from eight possibilities.  Each of the two aspect BPs is 12.91%, and each of the six aspect components is 12.91%.  Those eight drops add up to 100%, within rounding errors, meaning one piece is always dropped if you complete the mission.  That's how a drop table works.

Huh. Therein lies my error. Misread that table as 12.91% being the drop chance, not the item chance.

Thanks for taking the time to respond politely to clarify.

[PakkiTheDog]

I got all of her parts in a dozen hours, but doe to constant bugs and crashes i had to re-farm half of here parts. And the last one, neuroptics were a nightmare. Seriously the hours it took me to get them was ridiculous, at the end i was literally screaming at the screen and got it.

So much effort for a bad frame in the end. But should have seen it coming, if the frame is reworked even before it's released, that's a bad sign.

 

DE is probably focusing even more on the sacrifice, a lot of content? Hopefully.

[DrLego]

The crashes and bugs are really the only part I don't like. As for farming, you have to realize that you're fighting some tough odds and patience is necessary. It's like a 96% chance every two zones that you don't get a Khora Blueprint. If you're impatient, just buy Khora, if you're cheap, be patient.

[Buff00n]

37 minutes ago, rune_me said:

Okay. 9 hours isn't that bad.

It makes no sense to base calculations on 90% confidence. That's just an arbitrary number and the great majority of players will get it much sooner than that. Then we might as well base on the, say, 20% confidence. The only thing that is really meaningful is just to go by the average.

To be fair, the number 51 was quoted out of context.  In my original post I was careful to say something like "27-51+", and compare it to other frames' grinds using the same analysis.  

Giving an additional, high-confidence number in addition to the average is a useful way to give an idea of the variance, and thus the distribution, with this kind of data.  It also puts a number on how bad it can get; a 90% confidence number means that it will take 1 in 10 players at least that long.

[rune_me]

2 minutes ago, Buff00n said:

To be fair, the number 51 was quoted out of context.  In my original post I was careful to say something like "27-51+", and compare it to other frames' grinds using the same analysis.

Ah okay, I didn't see that. My apologies then.

3 minutes ago, Buff00n said:

Giving an additional, high-confidence number in addition to the average is a useful way to give an idea of the variance, and thus the distribution, with this kind of data.  It also puts a number on how bad it can get; a 90% confidence number means that it will take 1 in 10 players at least that long.

Yeah sure. But similarly 1 in 10 players would take the adverse time (as in, fewer runs - sorry, english is not my first language so not sure how to explain this better). And then you're back to the average. 

Basically: statistically speaking, for every person that takes more runs than the average, there'll also be a person who takes the same amount fewer runs than the average.

Which is why I still feel only really the average number of runs matters. Which is 9 hours. Which is still a long time, but acceptable.

[Deimorne]

1 hour ago, rune_me said:

Which is why I still feel only really the average number of runs matters. Which is 9 hours. Which is still a long time, but acceptable.

But this is only for some. For ones like myself, I spent a week and only got two blueprints, the third being lost in a bug out, which didn't matter because it was a duplicate of the first two anyway. A week and nothing. This is why I feel it's a terrible idea to lock blueprints to brand new content behind RNG's. This is destiny 2 levels of mess in my honest opinion.

[rune_me]

7 minutes ago, Saratheia said:

But this is only for some. For ones like myself, I spent a week and only got two blueprints, the third being lost in a bug out, which didn't matter because it was a duplicate of the first two anyway. A week and nothing. This is why I feel it's a terrible idea to lock blueprints to brand new content behind RNG's. This is destiny 2 levels of mess in my honest opinion.

But again, you are judging the entire experience based on your own bad luck, that's not fair. 

Imagine someone who gets all the part in a two runs and then declares that Khora is the easiest frame to get ever. You are basically doing the same, just in reverse.

The fact is that roughly 30 runs is the average. And of course some will go above that and roughly the same amount of people will go below that. And that still evens out to roughly 30 runs, because that's how chance works: Almost no one will get the most likely outcome, but the average of everyone trying will be very close to the most likely (and continue to move closer and closer to it, the more people who try it).