RNG ???? What a big lie (with all my respect)

[Volinus7]

Does Warframe even use hardware based entropy seeding? Nah I don't think so.

[(XBOX)Oussii]

18 minutes ago, SilentMobius said:

A common part, I assume the relics weren't refined with void traces?

So then, from what you said:

G1 Common * 9

S5 Common * 11

G1 Common * 5

S5 Common * 4

(Then you say "same again" so I'll assume you mean the last day detailed)

G1 Common * 5

S5 Common * 4

So, the G1 has 3 items in it's common tier so that's 25.333% chance of getting the item you did. S1 is the same.

The chances of getting that specific string of luck is simply 0.2533 ^ (9+11+5+4+5+4) which is very very low indeed.

If you are being honest, I suggest you open a support ticket as that is a 1 in 4.59e+22 and even with millions of subscribers that should never happen.

So quit posting on the forums and open a support ticket, if you're on the up-and-up (and DE can check) then it will be looked at.

 

 

it was the common part of frost yes,. the third in line, but it would be ok if i got another common part , then it is RNG, but what happened is not luck or RNG,,,

it's a broken mechanism.

i understand your theory above, but when the same thing happens for 3 days over dozens of mission, then this theory is no more valid

[LycanPT]

We have a rigged system because I can tell you I do several survival long runs and my experience is: you either get all bronzes with rads or you get gold 4-5 rounds straight with intacts. This case happens 95% of the runs I do. Ocasionally I get bronze+white parts. So yeah things are rigged, when I get a gold part near the end of the time I stipulated to be in said fissure, I stick around longer than intended because I already know I will get gold for 3-4 more rounds

[SilentMobius]

52 minutes ago, (Xbox One)Oussii said:

it was the common part of frost yes,. the third in line, but it would be ok if i got another common part , then it is RNG, but what happened is not luck or RNG,,,

it's a broken mechanism.

i understand your theory above, but when the same thing happens for 3 days over dozens of mission, then this theory is no more valid

I've stated no theory, I've told you the odds and given you a recommendation. If you are telling the truth then open a support ticket.

[PookieNumnums]

I get forma bp I don't want or need. 

 

Count your blessings. 

 

I also don't do sorties everyday and got a legendary core yesterday. 

 

 

Rng 

[-Krism-]

14 hours ago, (Xbox One)Oussii said:

There is no way on earth that is pure RNG, what are the odds here

the way i see it: RNG mechanism is broken or simply its a lie. (with all my respect to all your efforts)

Even if the probability of this happening is 0.001% it still can happen, you just got really unlucky this time.

[Tesseract7777]

Some of you really cannot seem to grasp the difference between impossible and improbable. 

[JCBeastie]

I have burned through 5 radiant and 5 more non-upgraded Lith S1 today, not on the same node and have got Hikou P BP every time. Might be RNG, might be BS, who knows.

[Vox_Preliator]

1 hour ago, Tesseract7777 said:

Some of you really cannot seem to grasp the difference between impossible and improbable. 

I wish "Take a Probability Theory class" would be taken as a valid counterargument.

Because so many threads like these would be taken care of if these people understood how chance works.  It's honestly not even that complicated, I found half a dozen great sources to start with from five minutes of searching.

For that matter, without extensive and I mean really extensive result collection it's impossible to reach any sort of conclusion.  And no, a dozen agreements on the forums does not imply a consensus, much less anything even close to beginning to resemble something that could potentially be described as maybe a trend.

[Volinus7]

Computers don't take your "luck" as an input to initiate pRNG it doesn't work like that lol.

Edited May 4, 2017 by Volinus7

[SilentMobius]

21 hours ago, Xenox_Ilz-ot said:

Even if the probability of this happening is 0.001% it still can happen, you just got really unlucky this time.

The op is going about this the wrong way but please understand that the likelihood of the OP's stated result is _much_ less than that, We're talking 1 person in over 4 and 22 zeroes worth of people, that result is unlikely even if billions of people play for billions of missions.

Your example would happen regularly to some poor soul with Warframe's current subscriber base.

If the OP is telling the truth, they should contact support

Edited May 3, 2017 by SilentMobius

[AlphaTheFinalBalance]

On 5/2/2017 at 0:24 AM, (Xbox One)Oussii said:

I have notice this during the last week.

I went to do a lilth fissure exterminate on E-prime last week

Used the G1 relic (exp),, and for 9 times in a row, i got the same item (was playing solo)....

(Please no one tells me RNG...) just wait till the end.

I changed the relic, used S5, got of course a different item  11 times in a row.

2 days later, the same mission pops up.

so i go again, with G1 (exp). got the same item i got 2 days ago 5 times in a row.

I said the hek with that key, let me test the S5, and again, got the same item i got 2 days ago 4 times in a row.

Yesterday, the same thing happened again with both relics

There is no way on earth that is pure RNG, what are the odds here

the way i see it: RNG mechanism is broken or simply its a lie. (with all my respect to all your efforts)

whatever the case is, please DE do something about it and fix it

Thank you

That sounds like real RNG to me man, its a very unstable love hate relationship that goes from have everything to I will murder all you love.

May RNGesus save thee

[(PSN)Daleificent]

I often joke about the RNGesus favoring me but Ive run into the exact problem the OP is talking about a few times. But I still feel like it's all just the improbability of RNG over a mechanic either being broken or wrong. 

Yeah the chances of it are so small it sounds impossible but like a few people have said, give it enough chances and it will happen. 

At this point, I'd go out and pick up a lottery ticket. :P Maybe some of that luck of getting near impossible rolls will translate haha. 

[Vox_Preliator]

1 hour ago, SilentMobius said:

The op is going about this the wrong way but please understand that the likelihood of the OP's stated result is _much_ less than that, We're talking 1 person in over 4 and 22 zeroes worth of people, that result is unlikely even if billions of people play for billions of missions.

Your example would happen regularly to some poor soul with Warframe's current subscriber base.

If the OP is telling the truth, they should contact support

And say what, exactly?  What do you expect Support to say or do?  "Oh yeah, we decided to screw with you and manually forced your account to only roll commons to see how long it took you to notice." 

Outliers exist.  One in 4e+22 (Which I am not in the right state of mind to actually bother checking, my brain is full of matrices, integrals, and laplace transforms for my final this evening which I am definitely studying for and not procrastinating by browsing the forums, but I have this nagging hunch that such a figure isn't perfectly accurate either through mathiness or a misinterpretation of OP's situation, but I'll take your word for it) is not impossible, regardless of how statistically impossible it may be evidence suggests it happened right here. 

[FATEdPondera]

[Volinus7]

Technically, pRNG is not true random and your luck doesn't matter either due to seeding or post seeding or both. 

https://softwareengineering.stackexchange.com/questions/109724/how-do-random-number-generators-work

http://herc.ws/board/topic/9637-rng-anomaly/

https://www.diablowiki.net/Legendary_pity_timer

https://mmos.com/editorials/rng-isnt-random

https://www.reddit.com/r/blackdesertonline/comments/4ocnvx/if_the_rng_is_implemented_properly_in_this_game/

Btw you don't discuss pRNG with fairness, because fairness renders pRNG useless by default. 

Edited May 4, 2017 by Volinus7

[Tesseract7777]

31 minutes ago, Vox_Preliator said:

And say what, exactly?  What do you expect Support to say or do?  "Oh yeah, we decided to screw with you and manually forced your account to only roll commons to see how long it took you to notice." 

Aside from the problem of what you tell them, after all, how would it be just his account if something was broken? The whole thing sounds like conspiracy theories straight out of a Nicholas Cage movie. 

But to me there are a few other issues that make me reluctant to consider the option that something is broken, because that's a pretty big accusation. 

 1) We have no idea if the OP is exaggerating or not. I am not even talking about whether he thinks he is truthful, but many people get frustrated with a little bad luck and make it bigger in their mind than it is. 

2) Sample size. We cannot even get started on getting a reasonable sample size here. We have some clues about activity from Steam figures, but many people don't play on Steam, so we really don't have any clue how many people are playing daily on average. We have even less clue how many are running relics, and how many are running that particular relic. We have very little to work with here. Too many variables. 

3) As you mentioned, outliers exist. The universe isn't a vacuum and doesn't care about all our neat little calculations. We restrict the probability of luck to that one event in order to make calculations reasonable, because there is no way we could take all the factors in the universe into account. Even Deep Thought would find such a task difficult, and he is a fictional super computer with a brain the size of a planet. So instead we base our calculations for probability in a sort of vacuum, based on the probability of things occurring inside that system, when the universe is a much more chaotic system. 

To some I am sure I will sound stoned out of my mind, but just because something is a statistical impossibility, does not mean it is an actual, finite impossibility. There are many things that are improbable, but our universe is so vast that there is almost an infinite amount of possibility. 

I read a story and saw a video of a man who got struck by lightning not once, but twice. And I don't mean years later, but he picked himself up, dusted himself off, walked several more yards, and then got struck again. To add more craziness to the improbability sandwich, he apparently wasn't seriously injured. The odds of those events occurring in that sequence would be viewed as statistically so impossible as to make no odds, and yet, it happened. 

As Trillian from Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy once said, "It is not impossible, just highly improbable." 

[-Krism-]

4 hours ago, SilentMobius said:

The op is going about this the wrong way but please understand that the likelihood of the OP's stated result is _much_ less than that, We're talking 1 person in over 4 and 22 zeroes worth of people, that result is unlikely even if billions of people play for billions of missions.

Your example would happen regularly to some poor soul with Warframe's current subscriber base.

If the OP is telling the truth, they should contact support

It doesn't matter, it can be 0.01% or 0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001% it would have been the same thing, it still can to happen.

[Voltage]

Technically there is RNG, but there is also Bias. Bias is a value that raises or lowers your chance of getting something based on values server side we do not know. For all we know there could be bias to lower the chance of rare sortie drops the more consecutive days you do them per say. You can read more up on it here:

http://warframerng.cu.cc/

[Carnage2K4]

Hmm the hypothetical nonsense in this thread used to throw out the irregularity is quite prolific... sure you cannot have a 100% perfect RNG, but it may as well be that because the irregularity is so minute, yes there is a chance that OP can get what he got from pure RNG... but we all see it happen way to frequently to dismiss it as such, I mean everyone knows some1 or has experienced it themselves a 1 in 10x10^10000 chance is not going to happen to so many ppl. you're not going to hear or experience it as much as we do with those odds, that's just a fact.... using these reasons to dismiss OP is ridiculous.

There is a real difference between "no true RNG" and a system that appears heavily bias after X number of sequential rolls. There is clearly something wrong here, the "RNG" is more skewed on some missions than it is on others, the frequency of gold drops on Axi & Neo inf fissures is so much higher than in most Lith & Meso fissures, it's even to the point of specific bronze drops being chosen over others, as an example I ultimately ended up with 7 Venka gauntlets just doing random intact relic before I got a single venka blade while actively farming the part... I just cannot see how that is possible if there is not some sort of underlying bias for gold drops in specific missions and bronze in others.

Edited May 4, 2017 by Carnage2K4

[Xgomme]

CLEM !

 

Oh, wait....

 

RNG !

[(XBOX)Oussii]

In my opinion, whatever the case is for the RNG, the DEVS should implement a simple coding:

If the RNG is the same X times in a row, then the X+1 should not be

(if you get the same item when playing solo 3 times in a row, then the fourth one should be forced by a code to change)

This (in my opinion) will solve a lot of issues and minimize the complains about RNG

[SilentMobius]

16 hours ago, Vox_Preliator said:

And say what, exactly?  What do you expect Support to say or do?  "Oh yeah, we decided to screw with you and manually forced your account to only roll commons to see how long it took you to notice." 

Outliers exist.  One in 4e+22 (Which I am not in the right state of mind to actually bother checking, my brain is full of matrices, integrals, and laplace transforms for my final this evening which I am definitely studying for and not procrastinating by browsing the forums, but I have this nagging hunch that such a figure isn't perfectly accurate either through mathiness or a misinterpretation of OP's situation, but I'll take your word for it) is not impossible, regardless of how statistically impossible it may be evidence suggests it happened right here. 

Alternatively, The OP has triggered an edge case, we know that DE does distribute random seeds themselves from server to client to ensure a given drop's repeatability, It's is always possible that a given seen was repeated in a specific edge case. With a outcome this unlikely it's worth DE having a look at the server records for the seeds that were sent out, if they are all different as expected, then fine.

I know my relic drops look like a perfectly reasonable distribution given the drop percentages we know about, but bugs can be very specific to a particular use case.

Maybe the op has a weird stateful router that is blocking the UDP packets that would normally set the seed or maybe the seed is getting unset by a recently introduced client bug because of corruption due to a buffer overrun specific to the OP. I don't know but will a run that is tens of orders of magnitude away from expected It's worth looking at.

The _reason_ I worked out the probability is to do the same thing that you are doing, tell the op that these things happen. Plenty of people have complained about their one in a million unlucky set of bad drops shouldn't happen, but of course if you have a million players doing the same thing then someone is likely to get this bad outcome and then post on the forum.

However once I saw just how unlikely it was, I changed my tune. At that point, it's a good idea to open a support ticket.

Edited May 4, 2017 by SilentMobius

[(PSN)ghinellil]

On 5/2/2017 at 7:43 AM, SeaUrchins said:

After that issue when Chesa kubrow could be bred only from the eggs coming from the shop, I would not be surprised if the RNG turned out to be not random at all.

I think i still have this issue 

[CarrotSalad]

Haha, a few days ago spent all my Meso *4 i think. (was the relic for valkyr helm) because i wanted to rankup my perrin sequence syndicate.

Anyway i think i used 7 relics 6 of which were radiant (at 100 traces each).. all 7 rewarded me carrier prime blueprint....

....