Calling it now RIP kohm rivens

[(XBOX)ECCHO SIERRA]

If they're changing the status chance calculation for shotguns their stated reason for not nerfing kohm/detron rivens will no longer be a concern. Therefore 120%+ chance on kohm rivens would no longer be w significant threshold, if I'm understanding this correctly. So it seems very likely shotgun rivens are going to be nerfed and it is guaranteed that the forums will be filled with a) salt and b)people laughing at the salt because a lot of people took their statement about it to mean it would remain exempt from the riven dispo updates. 

[Liam]

They made shotguns even worse. Great work 😄

[HIGHDAMAGE]

but status also getting a buff past 100% u'll be able to double proc or something lets wait and see how it implements 

[(XBOX)COA Altair]

We haven't played with the changes so we really don't know how shotguns are going to be affected that rely on status.  On top of that they could make future tweaks to the system.  So it's still early to declare the sky is falling.  

[EDM774]

some ppl don't understand that the shotgun status changes are actually a huge buff. when you shooting 100 pellets with 25% status each you'd be procking 25 different status effects and with only 6 status types or so you'll be double stacking effects A LOT and for the kohm it fires a ton of pellets per second so it's only going to shred faster than before.

 

and yes this is an exact copy paste of my reply to you earlier cuz you decided to make a whole thread out of your comment.

[Kaokasalis]

9 minutes ago, --Aegis--Angel said:

They made shotguns even worse. Great work 😄

Maybe you should actually wait until you get your hands on the changes before you start dooming the shotguns.

[Kaiga]

1 hour ago, --Aegis--Angel said:

They made shotguns even worse. Great work 😄

Uh. No?

But please explain how you arrived at this conclusion.

[IggySnow]

1 hour ago, EDM774 said:

some ppl don't understand that the shotgun status changes are actually a huge buff. when you shooting 100 pellets with 25% status each you'd be procking 25 different status effects and with only 6 status types or so you'll be double stacking effects A LOT and for the kohm it fires a ton of pellets per second so it's only going to shred faster than before.

 

and yes this is an exact copy paste of my reply to you earlier cuz you decided to make a whole thread out of your comment.

If shotguns were the only weapons in the game that were able to use the double stacking effects, then there could be a conversation of this being a buff. But since they aren't and every weapon can utilize the doubled effects, its a straight up, objective nerf to any shotgun that could reach 100% status chance.

This is, however, a buff to all the shotguns that could not reach 100% status chance, because all of those just get a 3x to their status chance.

 

Just do the math with any of the viable shotguns in the game right now.

Take the Tigress prime for example, Right now it has 30% status chance (4.3% per pellet), so if you put 4 60/60 mods on you get to 100% status, which makes every pellet proc a status. With the proposed changes it will instead have a 13% status chance per pellet (factoring in the 3x chance they are giving to all shotguns), with the same build of 4 60/60 mods it goes up to 44% chance per pellet. 

That's a straight up 50% nerf to status chance.

The Kohm right now has 25% status chance. Which means you need a build of +300% status chance to get every pellet to proc. With the changes it goes from 2.37% per pellet to 7.11%. If you have the same +300% only 29% of your pellets proc.

 

If the devs "don't like nerfs" like they said on stream, they should have just changed it so that every pellet has the advertised status chance.

 

 

 

Edited February 28, 2020 by HerpDerpy

[Hyro1]

4 minutes ago, HerpDerpy said:

If shotguns were the only weapons in the game that were able to use the double stacking effects, then there could be a conversation of this being a buff. But since they aren't and every weapon can utilize the doubled effects, its a straight up, objective nerf to any shotgun that could reach 100% status chance.

This is, however, a buff to all the shotguns that could not reach 100% status chance, because all of those just get a 3x to their status chance.

 

Just do the math with any of the viable shotguns in the game right now.

Take the Tigress prime for example, Right now it has 30% status chance (4.3% per pellet), so if you put 4 60/60 mods on you get to 100% status, which makes every pellet proc a status. With the proposed changes it will instead have a 13% status chance per pellet (factoring in the 3x chance they are giving to all shotguns), with the same build of 4 60/60 mods it goes up to 44% chance per pellet. 

That's a straight up 50% nerf to status chance.

The Kohm right now has 25% status chance. Which means you need a build of +300% status chance to get every pellet to proc. With the changes if you have the same +300% only 29% of your pellets proc.

 

If the devs "don't like nerfs" like they said on stream, they should have just changed it so that every pellet has the advertised status chance.

 

 

 

I really wanna know how with 3x more status, you got lower status chance than what in the game, cause something is funky with that math

[-AoN-CanoLathra-]

1 minute ago, Kaiga said:

Uh. No?

But please explain how you arrived at this conclusion.

After these changes, only one shotgun (Exergis) will be able to exceed 100% status, while almost all shotguns will still have a lower 'damage instance/second' rate than most auto-rifles in the game.

Thus, status shotguns will be worse at applying status than a number of rifles. Which counts as a nerf compared to right now.

Now, whether or not that is a problem will largely depend on whether or not procs like slash, toxin, and heat will still stack their damage across multiple instances. If they do, then rifles are now the new status weapons. If not, then it won't matter either way, since status as a whole will be dead.

To prove this, compare a current Tigris Prime build to one built on the new system. You will, on average, get far fewer slash procs than before, which means lower damage output. That means it has been nerfed.

Now, what the Devstream did a bad job of pointing out is that they planned on this being a nerf. They explicitly said that having every pellet proc was broken. Thus, the new system prevents all but one shotgun of achieving that.

[Aldain]

Good lord this place is going to die of salt poisoning when that next patch hits.

[nslay]

2 minutes ago, -AoN-CanoLathra- said:

After these changes, only one shotgun (Exergis) will be able to exceed 100% status, while almost all shotguns will still have a lower 'damage instance/second' rate than most auto-rifles in the game.

Thus, status shotguns will be worse at applying status than a number of rifles. Which counts as a nerf compared to right now.

Now, whether or not that is a problem will largely depend on whether or not procs like slash, toxin, and heat will still stack their damage across multiple instances. If they do, then rifles are now the new status weapons. If not, then it won't matter either way, since status as a whole will be dead.

To prove this, compare a current Tigris Prime build to one built on the new system. You will, on average, get far fewer slash procs than before, which means lower damage output. That means it has been nerfed.

Now, what the Devstream did a bad job of pointing out is that they planned on this being a nerf. They explicitly said that having every pellet proc was broken. Thus, the new system prevents all but one shotgun of achieving that.

Oh, so that's why they unvaulted Tigris Prime...

What about Strun Wraith? That should be able to reach 100%+ if Exergis can?

[-AoN-CanoLathra-]

1 minute ago, Hyro1 said:

I really wanna know how with 3x more status, you got lower status chance than what in the game, cause something is funky with that math

Because the current numbers in-game are simply the aggregate chance that at least one pellet procs. This creates a form of logarithmic function that shoots to infinity when the chance approaches 100%. What they are doing is taking the current per-pellet chance to proc, which is not the number currently shown, tripling it, and making that the new number that gets modded.

Which is a nerf to any shotgun that shoots more than three pellets.

[-AoN-CanoLathra-]

1 minute ago, nslay said:

Oh, so that's why they unvaulted Tigris Prime...

What about Strun Wraith? That should be able to reach 100%+ if Exergis can?

Strun Wraith has a per-pellet chance of ~5% right now, which give it only 15% after the changes. Essentially, the more pellets a shotgun has, the harder it will be hit by this change.

Now, what I really want to know is if this will also affect the Twin Grakata, and if so what will they do with that? Because I believe the Twin Grakata are currently the only non-shotgun weapon with innate multishot.

[nslay]

3 minutes ago, -AoN-CanoLathra- said:

Because the current numbers in-game are simply the aggregate chance that at least one pellet procs. This creates a form of logarithmic function that shoots to infinity when the chance approaches 100%. What they are doing is taking the current per-pellet chance to proc, which is not the number currently shown, tripling it, and making that the new number that gets modded.

Which is a nerf to any shotgun that shoots more than three pellets.

Oh, OK, that explains it...

Rather than this:

chance per pellet = 1 - (1 - baseStatusProc*modBonus)^(1/numPellets)

It becomes this

chance per pellet = modBonus*3*(1 - (1 - baseStatus)^(1/numPellets))

So then even Strun Wraith can't reach 100% status chance due to the number of pellets causing (1-baseStatus)^(1/numPellets) to be closer to 1.

[nslay]

So DE essentially made a system that intuitively follows the Binomial Distribution and behaves in ways easily characterized by probability theory and statistics which are useful for balancing... and made it into something akin to an engineering hack that makes no sense theoretically.

Perhaps they should just make status mean per-pellet chance and nerf the status chances on shotguns across the board for the same effect? Because what I understand seems like an unprincipled/ugly way to accomplish the same thing while adding more confusion about status chance on shotguns. In the current system, you need a calculator to figure out how good/bad your shotgun status chance actually is. At least a course in statistics/probability theory can help you understand the current system. This is worse!

[Kaiga]

19 minutes ago, -AoN-CanoLathra- said:

Because the current numbers in-game are simply the aggregate chance that at least one pellet procs. This creates a form of logarithmic function that shoots to infinity when the chance approaches 100%. What they are doing is taking the current per-pellet chance to proc, which is not the number currently shown, tripling it, and making that the new number that gets modded.

Which is a nerf to any shotgun that shoots more than three pellets.

There are shotguns that shoot less than three pellets. Namely the astilla, what happens to that gun?

Edited February 28, 2020 by Kaiga

[Deadoon]

1 minute ago, nslay said:

So DE essentially made a system that intuitively follows the Binomial Distribution and behaves in ways easily characterized by probability theory and statistics which are useful for balancing... and made it into something akin to an engineering hack that makes no sense theoretically.

Perhaps they should just make status mean per-pellet chance and nerf the status chances on shotguns across the board for the same effect? Because what I understand seems like an unprincipled/ugly way to accomplish the same thing while adding more confusion about status chance on shotguns. In the current system, you need a calculator to figure out how good/bad your shotgun status chance actually is. At least a course in statistics/probability theory can help you understand the current system. This is worse!

They are making status chance a per pellet thing and making multishot a seperate displayed stat.

[nslay]

Just now, Kaiga said:

There are shotguns that shoot less than three pellets. Namely the astilla, what happens to that gun?

It currently works akin to a rifle (sheet status = pellet proc chance). Now it gets triple the chance to proc sheet status if no exceptions were made.

[-AoN-CanoLathra-]

3 minutes ago, nslay said:

Oh, OK, that explains it...

Rather than this:

chance per pellet = 1 - (1 - baseStatusProc*modBonus)^(1/numPellets)

It becomes this

chance per pellet = modBonus*3*(1 - (1 - baseStatus)^(1/numPellets))

So then even Strun Wraith can't reach 100% status chance due to the number of pellets causing (1-baseStatus)^(1/numPellets) to be closer to 1.

I'm having a hard time following your math.

Right now, it is exactly as you said: Chance per Pellet = 1 − (1 − Arsenal Status Chance *(1+mods))^(1 ÷ Pellet Count)

Now the number show in the arsenal will be the chance per pellet, and that will be modded directly. there will be no weird exponential calculations. To make up for this, DE is multiplying all current per-pellet chances by 3. The current values are going away entirely.

To know what the new values will be, use the current formula (Chance per Pellet = 1 − (1 − Status Chance)^(1 ÷ Pellet Count)) and multiply by three.

[-AoN-CanoLathra-]

1 minute ago, Kaiga said:

There are shotguns that shoot less than three pellets. Namely the astilla, what happens to that gun?

The Astilla has no multishot, so it will have either the exact same status chance, or 3x its current status chance. If I had to guess, DE will likely intend to exclude it from the 3x 'buff' they are giving to shotguns. Whether or not that will be the case to start or if they will go back and 'fix' it afterwords because they forgot is entirely up to them. Same is true for the Arca Plasmor.

[IggySnow]

1 minute ago, Hyro1 said:

I really wanna know how with 3x more status, you got lower status chance than what in the game, cause something is funky with that math

the way status chance for shotguns works now is you take the advertised status chance and divide it by how many pellets per shot the shotgun fires. UNLESS you raise the status chance to 100% using mods, in which case every pellet has a 100% chance to proc an effect.

 

Using the Tigress prime again:

Unmodded: 30% status chance, divided by 7 pellets = 3.4% per pellet.

Modded to 100% status, the way the devs say it should work: 100% status chance, divided by 7 pellets = 14.3% per pellet.

Modded to 100% status, the way it currently works in game: 100% status chance, divided by 7 pellets = 100% per pellet.

 

Its basically a super old bug thats been there since day 1.

The status chance of a shotgun is supposed to represent the chance you have to get 1 single status proc per shot, which is why it gets divided by how many pellets there are in a shot. But since the game says that a 100% status chance is a guaranteed to proc a status effect, it bypasses the math of the pellet count and just makes every pellet proc.

 

[nslay]

1 minute ago, -AoN-CanoLathra- said:

I'm having a hard time following your math.

Right now, it is exactly as you said: Chance per Pellet = 1 − (1 − Arsenal Status Chance *(1+mods))^(1 ÷ Pellet Count)

Now the number show in the arsenal will be the chance per pellet, and that will be modded directly. there will be no weird exponential calculations. To make up for this, DE is multiplying all current per-pellet chances by 3. The current values are going away entirely.

To know what the new values will be, use the current formula (Chance per Pellet = 1 − (1 − Status Chance)^(1 ÷ Pellet Count)) and multiply by three.

modBonus = 1 + mods

baseStatusProc = Arsenal Status Chance.

I understand that modBonus will apply to triple the per-pellet proc chance calculated from the "Arsenal Status Chance" value.

So this:

newChancePerPellet = modBonus * 3 * arsenalChancePerPellet = modBonus * 3 * (1 - (1 - arsenalStatusChance)^(1/numPellets))

Is this not right?

[nslay]

2 minutes ago, -AoN-CanoLathra- said:

The Astilla has no multishot, so it will have either the exact same status chance, or 3x its current status chance. If I had to guess, DE will likely intend to exclude it from the 3x 'buff' they are giving to shotguns. Whether or not that will be the case to start or if they will go back and 'fix' it afterwords because they forgot is entirely up to them. Same is true for the Arca Plasmor.

This will come back and haunt them... these unprincipled/heuristical engineering hacks have ways to screw you over.

[nslay]

10 minutes ago, Deadoon said:

They are making status chance a per pellet thing and making multishot a seperate displayed stat.

How they are doing it is the problem. Look, it's already broken for Astilla... because it's not sourced from probability theory like the current system. It's a hack.