After 5 Years, The Final Piece

[-Sandman]

10 hours ago, Galuf said:

I farmed hate 1 month ago. Having despair should not take long, recruit 3 people for a stalker farm when void trader is selling beacons. If everybody buys a beacons, you generally have enough ducats to rince and repeat instantly meaning that you get a stalker every short mission. Lith exterminate or captures makes 2mn30ish missions, you get a lot of stalker in a very low amount of time. We got all the stalker drop table in roughly 30mn(hate droped last), maybe we got lucky, but looting despair should not take more than that(we got between 1 and 3 bps during the hate grind).

According to the wiki it should take less than 1h on average getting it this way.

Rng is Rng. You do realise that nearly guaranteed still means that at least 1 player in 10000 still wont get it in that time right? ... I have killed stalker countless times in my over 2000 hours in this game... that's just how random works

[Void_Ocelot]

13 hours ago, o0Despair0o said:

I know that feeling.

Got billions of Dread BPs and a bodybag full of Despair BP's, but only 1 or 2 Hate after several years.

Despair is all I am missing. Only been playing for 2 years-ish though.

[Rakosta_Kai]

13 hours ago, Reconsile said:

After 5 years, finally obtained the last weapon...

Congrats!! I know how rough Stalker's drops can be.

3 hours ago, Luciole77 said:

take me less than 1 year to take all weapons.

Have a cookie...

[AltairFerenc]

I needed 6 years for it to drop anything more than dread/nothing that that was despair, after I bought the "what's stalker" pack btw and 2 months ago I got the hate too it just took almost 8 years
and the funny thing is I love and hate scyhtes at  the same time, they do a lot of damage and look cool but all the stances are horrible for me

[Reconsile]

9 hours ago, (PS4)robotwars7 said:

took me about 3 years to get Hate, friend of mine still doesn't have it, and he's been playing since Console Launch.

Lol at it being stolen. I guess now your Lich has your Hate in 2 ways now. at least you've got motivation to take him down!

 

What is cool is that I was already planning on killing my lich. Got lucky with the dubba stubba, the akstubbak, 50% toxin. So now I just get 2 weapons from it 🤑

[Galuf]

Il y a 5 heures, -Sandman a dit :

Rng is Rng. You do realise that nearly guaranteed still means that at least 1 player in 10000 still wont get it in that time right? ... I have killed stalker countless times in my over 2000 hours in this game... that's just how random works

Probabilities don't work like that. I had also 2K hours or so in warframe before getting it, and I got it after target farming. it is 161 kills for 1/10000 precisely. It is the same in every video game that relies on rng, at a point either you trust the entropy and minmax your slot machine or derp around, 100% of people die one day too.

Edited June 27, 2020 by Galuf

[Reconsile]

39 minutes ago, Galuf said:

Probabilities don't work like that. I had also 2K hours or so in warframe before getting it, and I got it after target farming. it is 161 kills for 1/10000 precisely. It is the same in every video game that relies on rng, at a point either you trust the entropy and minmax your slot machine or derp around, 100% of people die one day too.

I mean, did I use the full 5 years I have had an account on warframe farming specifically Stalker? Of course not. However, in the span of 1500 in game hours, I do know that every time Stalker beacons were up, I would farm them as much as possible. Every time Shadow Stalker spawned naturally, I would always kill him. I tried my best to maximize the odds, and despite this, I rng'd Hate from Shadow Stalker with 2.765% vs Stalker 5.53%

While I don't agree with the statement "You do realise that nearly guaranteed still means that at least 1 player in 10000 still wont get it" (probably just wrong wording), it is entirely possible (albeit rarely) to fail the first 500 hundred attempts then get your first drop. That is just the way rng works.
 

 

Spoiler

 

Do not misunderstand drop chance

One of the most common misconceptions about drop chance is taking the percentage for granted:

• A 10% drop chance does not mean every 10th repetition.
• A 10% drop chance does not mean 10 of 100 tries is a success.
• A 10% drop chance only means that over a large enough sample size or number of tries – tens of thousands – roughly 10% of those tries will lead to success.

And because randomness is involved it is possible that with a 10% drop chance you fail 900 times before you succeed the next 100 times. That is the beauty of randomness.
https://xplainthegame.com/rng-and-drop-chance-warframe/

 

 

[Tesseract7777]

1 hour ago, Galuf said:

Probabilities don't work like that. I had also 2K hours or so in warframe before getting it, and I got it after target farming. it is 161 kills for 1/10000 precisely. It is the same in every video game that relies on rng, at a point either you trust the entropy and minmax your slot machine or derp around, 100% of people die one day too.

You can minmax your slot machine all you want, but I think it is you who is misunderstanding probability. 

If there is a 1 in 1000 chance of getting something, trying a 1000 times does not guarantee I will get that item. That's just not how probability works. It means it is highly probable I will get by then... but it doesn't mean I will. 

Focusing your farming as opposed to spreading it out over time does not change that. Probability is. 

Edited June 27, 2020 by Tesseract7777

[-Sandman]

2 hours ago, Galuf said:

Probabilities don't work like that. I had also 2K hours or so in warframe before getting it, and I got it after target farming. it is 161 kills for 1/10000 precisely. It is the same in every video game that relies on rng, at a point either you trust the entropy and minmax your slot machine or derp around, 100% of people die one day too.

Yea except outliers are a thing

[-Sandman]

1 hour ago, Reconsile said:

While I don't agree with the statement "You do realise that nearly guaranteed still means that at least 1 player in 10000 still wont get it" (probably just wrong wording), it is entirely possible (albeit rarely) to fail the first 500 hundred attempts then get your first drop. That is just the way rng works.

Yeah i didn't explain it properly. I was denoting that it's a never a guarantee in that time, but rather that a statistically significant proportion of players will get it in that time, with some outliers taking much longer. The average will almost always match the probability, and the larger the number of attempts, the closer it will be to that figure, once the population is significant. It's totally possible for you to have bad rng and take "forever" "all" the time which is why RNG feels broken for some (aside from attentional bias towards unpleasant situations). Drop mechanics based on RNG are largely successful but sometimes I wonder why a hard upper cap isn't used. For what needs to have a low rate, the low rate will likely still encourage the unlucky persons to pay to skip; but at least a hard cap will reward the loyal.   

Edited June 28, 2020 by -Sandman

[Gemini_Jenvas]

[(XBOX)x ARTaco x]

after four years i've seen dozens of everything except actual war blades(0)/hilt(1). wonder what his game time is

[0_The_F00l]

The stalker comes as the lights fade.

Despair in his grasp and hate as his blade, 

Dread does he bring and shadows does he call, 

Smoke is what is left after his fall. 

But he will rise again as a vengeful revenant, 

For tenno your end is eminent. 

 

LA LA laaa lala Laala.... 

We should start a limerick /bard contest. 

[Galuf]

Il y a 6 heures, -Sandman a dit :

Yeah i didn't explain it properly. I was denoting that it's a never a guarantee in that time, but rather that a statistically significant proportion of players will get it in that time, with some outliers taking much longer. The average will almost always match the probability, and the larger the number of attempts, the closer it will be to that figure, once the population is significant. It's totally possible for you to have bad rng and take "forever" "all" the time which is why RNG feels broken for some (aside from attentional bias towards unpleasant situations). Drop mechanics based on RNG are largely successful but sometimes I wonder why a hard upper cap isn't used. For what needs to have a low rate, the low rate will likely still encourage the unlucky persons to pay to skip; but at least a hard cap will reward the loyal.   

You have the wrong mindset. I play a lot of path of exile wich has the same issues with everything in the game. And every league I get similar success despite all the variance there are in the game, because I'm fast and efficient, and not because I don't gamble because let met tell you I can do very ineficent gambles because I feel like doing them. The bad rng reasonning is not the good one, and outliers do not really exist in that sense. It is the fact about the rng entropy, at a point you get what you want. And playing the game properly(aka playing faster) makes you get things faster. You may be very unlucky on something but not on something else.

I mean WF is so streamlined that you have the exact numbers on the wiki. So, let me tell you, if you have killed stalker 200 times and still not have you hate, you should start playing loto or will receive a surprise inheritance very soon, maybe you'll start walking on water too... I looted almost everything that had to be looted in the game, and the rare things I had issues looting was because I wasn't really trying, not because I was rng cursed of some sort.

Edited June 28, 2020 by Galuf

[kgabor]

6 hours ago, (XB1)x ARTaco x said:

after four years i've seen dozens of everything except actual war blades(0)/hilt(1). wonder what his game time is

Same, at some point i even went out of my way on a few occasions, spending hours trying to farm it in Lua Survivals, not a single part.

I got several of all Stalker's drops though and got Vengeful Revenant from a random Sentient when i was doing the Railjack quest.

[Hayrack]

Lol, got Hate and Dread in less than 100 days, Smoking body ephemera in less than 150. The RNG is asurd.

[-Sandman]

9 hours ago, Galuf said:

You have the wrong mindset. I play a lot of path of exile wich has the same issues with everything in the game. And every league I get similar success despite all the variance there are in the game, because I'm fast and efficient, and not because I don't gamble because let met tell you I can do very ineficent gambles because I feel like doing them. The bad rng reasonning is not the good one, and outliers do not really exist in that sense. It is the fact about the rng entropy, at a point you get what you want. And playing the game properly(aka playing faster) makes you get things faster. You may be very unlucky on something but not on something else.

I mean WF is so streamlined that you have the exact numbers on the wiki. So, let me tell you, if you have killed stalker 200 times and still not have you hate, you should start playing loto or will receive a surprise inheritance very soon, maybe you'll start walking on water too... I looted almost everything that had to be looted in the game, and the rare things I had issues looting was because I wasn't really trying, not because I was rng cursed of some sort.

Mindset? It's math. Do it fast or do it slow, do it constantly or do it over an extended period; NONE of that changes the way a dice roll works. 

Wrt to the "exact numbers on wiki", that was adequately addressed above by several posters. There is nothing exact in a random chance. These statements show a lack of fundamental understanding of statistics and probabilities. 

Edited June 28, 2020 by -Sandman

[Galuf]

Il y a 11 heures, -Sandman a dit :

Mindset? It's math. Do it fast or do it slow, do it constantly or do it over an extended period; NONE of that changes the way a dice roll works. 

Wrt to the "exact numbers on wiki", that was adequately addressed above by several posters. There is nothing exact in a random chance. These statements show a lack of fundamental understanding of statistics and probabilities. 

I have a math degree actually. But anyway I'm done :). You're right anyway, there is a chance that you'll turn into a giant burning sun and obliterate the whole galaxy in your sleep.

Edited June 29, 2020 by Galuf

[-Sandman]

1 hour ago, Galuf said:

I have a math degree actually. But anyway I'm done :). You're right anyway, there is a chance that you'll turn into a giant burning sun and obliterate the whole galaxy in your sleep.

Well that is true except the chance to fall outside the majority of the population in the dataset for these drops is alot higher than in your example, and in this case the event we are speaking about has actually been confirmed. It's unfortunate that you chose to ignore the concept of outliers in light of your alleged understanding of the math solely based on your own experience bias.

Edited June 29, 2020 by -Sandman

[Reconsile]

44 minutes ago, Galuf said:

I have a math degree actually. But anyway I'm done :). You're right anyway, there is a chance that you'll turn into a giant burning sun and obliterate the whole galaxy in your sleep.

 

Imagine being arrogant enough to throw out the "I have a math degree" to support that you have more knowledge on how rng works, but then proceed to mockingly claim that there is a chance that an impossible event could happen. 

Ironically, the link I posted earlier proves that you don't understand the difference between normal probability & random number generators. For your benefit, I have posted the full article below. Hopefully, instead of remaining willingly ignorant, you learn something & finally wash off the clown makeup

RNG and drop chance in video games with focus on Warframe

RNG and drop chance is one of the most misunderstood and also frustrating topics for players in Warframe. This not only because of the maths involved but because of many half-truths found on the Warframe subreddit and in the official Warframe forums. Players tend to confuse the drop chance which belongs to probability with school-taught use of percent in calculus. Let’s look a bit deeper into this topic.

What RNG means

RNG stands for random number generation and simply describes a tiny piece of software tossing the coin or rolling the dice for you. There is nothing fancy about this and in most programming languages it is just one line of code that decides about your luck. 

This is how a success drop is calculated in the programming language Java:

if(ThreadLocalRandom.current().nextInt(100/DROPCHANCE)==0)

In Warframe this kind RNG is used after every enemy encounter, after every boss fight or fissure run, to name just a few. 

RNG in drop tables

Whenever a drop in Warframe can happen it follows defined drop tables. Drop tables mostly have multiple items that can drop. The common drops will mostly likely happen all the time. The uncommon drops occasionally and the rare drops will happen only after many repetions or a long time of playing.

Take for example Arbitrations rotation A where the rare drop is the Adaptation mod. You get this drop only after many many missions whereas the common drop of 1300 Endo will happen most of the time. 

Warframe’s drop tables are public and can be accessed by everybody who interested at this link.

Most things that can drop will be in this drop table. Just use CTRL+F to search in the site. They contain the drop chance in percent that give you an overall “feeling” of what common, uncommon or rare means. To really understand and appreciate those numbers we have to do some more exploration of the maths involved.

Down the rabbit hole of probability

As said before RNG means that a piece of software is rolling the dice for you. Given that noone has manipulated the RNG software this digital dice rolling represents a perfect die that is rolled by a perfect hand on a perfect table. And thus the results of each roling are bound by the rules of probability. 

Here are the most important facts about probability using the die example:

• Each time you roll the dice your dop chance stays the same. If you want to roll a 6 there is a 1 in 6 chance each time the die is rolled.
• 1 in 6 can be written as a fraction 1/6. That fraction is 0.1667 which is in turn 16.67%. A 16.67% drop chance is just for the definition and has nothing to do with how probability actually works. 
• 1 in 6 is an average if you repeat something long enough. Long enough means thousands of times. You can test it for yourself with a die and roll it 6 times and will most likely not get each number once.
• There is absolutely no pattern when the number 6 will appear when you roll the dice.
  If there was a pattern that could be calculated we would not have a gambling industry that makes decent money from people being unlucky. If someone thinks there is pattern that person has fallen for what is known as as Gambler’s Fallacy.

Combination to spice up probability

That last paragraph might have struck you because when playing games with dice you intuitively know that a 6 will appear after having rolled that die 20 times without a 6. You are totally right and it does not violate the rule of no pattern. A pattern would be something you can calculate and make exact predictions.   

What you and me experience when rolling a die repeatedly without getting a 6 for a long time is called: Decreasing the probability of being unlucky. In math terms this is called combination and we can calculate it. But – a big but – there is a limit to that calculation because probability will never allow us to make a 100% probability prediction. A 100% prediction would be a pattern and we do not have a pattern. 

So we can calculate how the probability that something will happen increases over time but at the same time have no clear pattern. That is confusing but that is at the heart of it. And it is at the heart of it because it is probability. 

To bring out the die example. After 25 dice rolls you and the vast majority of all human on this planet beings should have seen a 6 at least once. But it is perfectly possible to not see a 6 after after 100 rolls for hand full of people on this planet. 

Using combination and understand its meaning

We can and will use combination to calculate the probability of getting an item with a defined drop chance through repeated runs. The results of combination is a good indicator of what to expect. But let us not forget, it is just an indicator and not a reliable number.

This is the formula that is used to calculate the probability of not failing after X runs:
1 – ((1-dropChance/ 1)^numberOfRuns)

The result of the above formula will always be followed by “chance of getting the item at least once”. Thus indicating you could have gotten the drop even earlier.

By turning the formula upside down – using logarithmic calculations – we can make a statement about the number of runs it will take you to have 90% or 99% probability. The 90% probability is what in most video games is considered the expected number of runs you have to do to get an item at least once. The 99% probability is what in most video games is considered as almost guaranteed number.

If we take the Heavy Caliber mod as an example. It has a 4.35% drop chance upon open an Orokin Vault. You have to do 52 runs to have a 90% probability to have at least one drop of Heavy Caliber. That is the expected number of runs. But you have to do 104 runs to get to a 99% probability to get at least one drop. So, 104 runs to have nearly guaranteed drop.

Can you still not get the item after you repeated the number of runs that are calculated with 99% probability? Sadly yes and it is called bad luck. But it will happen very very rarely.

Summary

Drop chance in percent works differently than your everyday percentage calculation and that is what people get confused about. Drop chance percent should be understood in the context of doing thousands of repetitions.

A 10% drop chance does not mean after 9 runs it should drop. A 10% drop chance mean that after a thousand runs around 10% will have given the drop without knowing the time of the drop. That could mean you do not see a drop for 100 runs and after that 10 times in a row. 

[Murox]

Yoink!

[Azurian-Draguard]

Dont you just HATE when your Lich steals your loot as "Payment?"  Just that more of a reason to vanquish em.

Heck I know the feeling all too well myself

 

Managed to "wait patiently" for Stalker to drop all his old weapons along with new ones. I just need to get lucky with the Sentients dropping War Parts since I sacrificed my Broken War Quest Sword to make the War Sword.