Mission Rewards: Corrupted Holokey drop rate is not what was publicly posted.

[KVenom]

Dear DE, I will be honest with you: I am beginning to have trust issues.
You see, you posted the official drop table for Void Storms on Railjack.
And it was stated to be 37.5% . I was quite sceptical about such a high rate, thinking that maybe there is some catch with weapon availability at Ergo Glast's shop.

Instead, it turned out that the holokeys just refuse to drop.

30 runs. 2 drops of holokeys. That's not even 30 persent.
Meanwhile, I got like tons of Axi relics, which were supposed to be way more rare. As well as a few sets of Sevagoth.

Turns out, I am not the only one, who has that problem.

 

 

So, guys, is that another mishap, like the one with Deimos Velocipod Rarity Table, where the supposedly "rare" White Velocipods appeared more often than the green ones?

Cuz if so, ya might wanna fix that. Cuz people are getting steamed. Peeved, even.

[NoLife]

If the drop tables were changed, we should see them here, should we not? Thought this was an automatic system.
Sidenote, population size of drop chances vs. Less than a Coin Flip don't convince me as of yet. Would like to see near a thousand runs to determine a drop chance from playtesting. Which is not reasonable for an individual, but still...

https://warframe.com/droptables

Void Storm (Veil Proxima)
6X Corrupted Holokey	Common (37.50%)

[LillyRaccune]

Just now, NoLife said:

https://warframe.com/droptables

Void Storm (Veil Proxima)
6X Corrupted Holokey	Common (37.50%)

Yeah... the OP (and I agree) suggest that the actual drop percentile is much lower.

[KVenom]

1 минуту назад, NoLife сказал:

If the drop tables were changed, we should see them here, should we not? Thought this was an automatic system.

https://warframe.com/droptables

Void Storm (Veil Proxima)
6X Corrupted Holokey	Common (37.50%)

BRUH. It's not about "being changed". It's about probably "being BUGGED".
Velocipods, remember?

That kind of stuff happened already with those mutated Dragonflies. Very Rare Loot dropped more often than Common. In case of Velocipods, Very Rare white velocipods appeared in huge ammounts, while supposedly common Green Velocipods were nowhere to be seen. At all.

[NoLife]

Just now, KVenom said:

That kind of stuff happened already with those mutated Dragonflies. Very Rare Loot dropped more often than Common. In case of Velocipods, Very Rare white velocipods appeared in huge ammounts, while supposedly common Green Velocipods were nowhere to be seen. At all.

My first memory of such a thing was the olden days of 2013 Rare and Common mod drop chances being reversed.

[KVenom]

1 минуту назад, NoLife сказал:

My first memory of such a thing was the olden days of 2013 Rare and Common mod drop chances being reversed.

Huh. Well, the Velocipod Glitch happened like less than a year ago. So more people remember the whole "Deimos Velocipod Hunt" shenanigans more vivid, than that crazy thing.
Thus I used it as a reference.

[Zhoyzu]

19 minutes ago, LillyRaccune said:

Yeah... the OP (and I agree) suggest that the actual drop percentile is much lower.

hes done 30 runs. This is a statistical outlier known as a "small number" problem. There is not enough data in OPs post to suggest anything other than that they have been very unlucky.

 

Dont @ me cause im not happy with the rarity either. But i havent done enough runs to implicate the drop chance isnt whats listed

[krc473]

39 minutes ago, KVenom said:

You see, you posted the official drop table for Void Storms on Railjack.
And it was stated to be 37.5%

My experience has been the opposite of yours. The first few runs (maybe five) I did gave none, then seven or eight consecutive runs dropped the keys. I have consistently been getting keys more frequently than a 37.5% chance would suggest. I would say that over half my runs have given keys. I too have not done enough runs for this amount to be of statistical significance (under 50 runs).

 

I don’t think there is a problem with the drop rate. I imagine it is all down to RNG and variations it causes.

[(PSN)crashteddy03]

There will always be people who put this down to 'bad RNG luck'. However, I will contend that something has changed in the way Warframe does RNG since around about the release of Protea.

I've been playing Warframe for just over three years now. I can look in my inventory at frames/weapons/parts that I farmed historically (or just over time such as Nyx and Oberon) and see drop rates that are reasonably consistent with the listed percentages. Since around the release of Protea there is a drastic shift in that usually one item sits as a massive outlier.

For me farming the Granum Voids, the Stahlta stock (29.63%), Stropha stock (29.63%) and Protea Systems (11.11%) were all massive outliers. I ended up purchasing all three for plat out of frustration. Eventually I managed to get the Protea Systems so that I could feed my second frame to Helminth. Don't even get me started on farming frames like Trinity and Saryn...

Even for Sevagoth I gave up farming the systems because after more missions than I could be bothered to count it wouldn't drop. Of course since buying him for plat, I had four systems drop in a row! I digress...

I am convinced that the drop tables that DE publish are correct (from their point of view), but that whatever change was made to the RNG system causes the real-world drop rate to be vary wildly. Of course it is impossibly hard to prove such a thing, unless someone has the time and patience to do 1000+ runs of a single mission (I certainly don't). However, I figure that DE must be able to see what the actual drop rates are across the game compared with the figures that are set. I'd be interested to know if they are at all close to the stated figures.

[KVenom]

24 минуты назад, Zhoyzu сказал:

hes done 30 runs. This is a statistical outlier known as a "small number" problem. There is not enough data in OPs post to suggest anything other than that they have been very unlucky.

 

Dont @ me cause im not happy with the rarity either. But i havent done enough runs to implicate the drop chance isnt whats listed

30 runs is a "small number"? Are you high or something? Cuz for chances of 10% and above, 30 instances is more than enough to test the probability.

If the chance was below 10%, say, 2%, then yes, we would need 100+ instances, to be sure. Basic Theory of Probability stuff, man.

Now add the fact that there are at least 10 oher people who have done even more runs, and only got 1-2 drops, like me.

4 of those people you can see making discussions about the whole shtick.

[KVenom]

22 минуты назад, (PSN)crashteddy03 сказал:

There will always be people who put this down to 'bad RNG luck'. However, I will contend that something has changed in the way Warframe does RNG since around about the release of Protea.

I've been playing Warframe for just over three years now. I can look in my inventory at frames/weapons/parts that I farmed historically (or just over time such as Nyx and Oberon) and see drop rates that are reasonably consistent with the listed percentages. Since around the release of Protea there is a drastic shift in that usually one item sits as a massive outlier.

For me farming the Granum Voids, the Stahlta stock (29.63%), Stropha stock (29.63%) and Protea Systems (11.11%) were all massive outliers. I ended up purchasing all three for plat out of frustration. Eventually I managed to get the Protea Systems so that I could feed my second frame to Helminth. Don't even get me started on farming frames like Trinity and Saryn...

Even for Sevagoth I gave up farming the systems because after more missions than I could be bothered to count it wouldn't drop. Of course since buying him for plat, I had four systems drop in a row! I digress...

I am convinced that the drop tables that DE publish are correct (from their point of view), but that whatever change was made to the RNG system causes the real-world drop rate to be vary wildly. Of course it is impossibly hard to prove such a thing, unless someone has the time and patience to do 1000+ runs of a single mission (I certainly don't). However, I figure that DE must be able to see what the actual drop rates are across the game compared with the figures that are set. I'd be interested to know if they are at all close to the stated figures.

Exactly. Some of those chance persentages don't make any sense. Drops of certain resources, certain parts of Warframes and weapons, and yeah, the oldest pain in the rack - the Void Relics.

[IMP_102]

14 hours ago, KVenom said:

30 runs is a "small number"? Are you high or something? Cuz for chances of 10% and above, 30 instances is more than enough to test the probability.

If the chance was below 10%, say, 2%, then yes, we would need 100+ instances, to be sure. Basic Theory of Probability stuff, man.

Now add the fact that there are at least 10 oher people who have done even more runs, and only got 1-2 drops, like me.

4 of those people you can see making discussions about the whole shtick.

sample of 30 is absolutely worthless. That's like 13.5 %-pts margin of error with 99% confidence. You could say that 99% of player base after 30 runs will experience drop rates between 24% to 51%. And there always will be someone unluckier than that.

[KVenom]

33 минуты назад, IMP_102 сказал:

sample of 30 is absolutely worthless. That's like 13.5 %-pts margin of error with 99% confidence. You could say that 99% of player base after 30 runs will experience drop rates between 24% to 51%. And there always will be someone unluckier than that.

That's cute. Your lack of knowledge of bases on Theory of Probability is adorable, really.
Now let me tell you how this actually works, and I'll try to simplify it just for you:
30% means that approximately one third of all encounters will have a chance of desired outcome per instance. Say, 3 instances out of 10.
Now let's take 30 instances. That means we just have to multiply our ammount by 3, meaning that means around 9 holokey  drops out of 30.

Of course, I know that you are gonna make an obvious "this are only Ideal calcualtions" nitpick.
So let's complicate it for the real world.
According to Bernoulli Formula:
We have 37.5% of probability(0.375 for measurement)
We have 30 instances
So, most probable ammount of our key drop will be 30*0.375 = 11, give or take 4, according to highest probabilities, counted through mentioned Bernoulli Formula.
So, at worst, we get 7 out of 30. Any lower ammounts have even less probability, same for ammounts bigger than 15.

THAT'S STILL MORE THAN 2 OUT OF 30, which has like probability of 0.00012(0.012%) to happen.

So yeah, I hope that this was simple enough. Or do I have to write the whole (P_n^k=C_n^k * p^k * q^n-k) formula with explanation and all the tests for each k(ammount of drops per 30 runs)?

[(XBOX)AMONGTHEWEAK]

Believe it or not my buddies and I got 6x holokey drops 8 times in a row running skirmish, got off after 8 rounds so I don't know if our luck would proceed us. We did not select a relic each round we played. Don't know if that broke the games drop rate for us or not, but we were laughing at the fact we kept getting them. 

Try not choosing a relic and run a private game where players do the same. Collect the essence and complete the objective. I did it again yesterday, twice with no relic and got holokey drop on second run. Got off after that. The weapons from what I hear really aren't worth it. Haven't spent my keys yet though. 

[KVenom]

3 минуты назад, (XBOX)AMONGTHEWEAK сказал:

Believe it or not my buddies and I got 6x holokey drops 8 times in a row running skirmish, got off after 8 rounds so I don't know if our luck would proceed us. We did not select a relic each round we played. Don't know if that broke the games drop rate for us or not, but we were laughing at the fact we kept getting them. 

Try not choosing a relic and run a private game where players do the same. Collect the essence and complete the objective. I did it again yesterday, twice with no relic and got holokey drop on second run. Got off after that. The weapons from what I hear really aren't worth it. Haven't spent my keys yet though. 

Sounds like an interesting attempt at manipulating drop chance through forcing certain values to show for math.random function. I'll try that too, thank you.

[(XBOX)AMONGTHEWEAK]

6 minutes ago, KVenom said:

Sounds like an interesting attempt at manipulating drop chance through forcing certain values to show for math.random function. I'll try that too, thank you.

We also only ran Void Storm Skrimishes in Veil Proxima, don't know if the higher difficulty helped as well. Was only 3 of us, but we did have a random join at one point and he got the drop with us as well. We even got the holokey to drop when that random joined and we purposely did not collect all the essence to get him to leave. Then we switched our game back to friends only. 🤷🏽‍♂️ So IDK what we did right or what we did terribly wrong to give us such luck. Best of luck to you!

[TheGrimCorsair]

The only thing the op's "test" proves is they should probably stay away from Vegas.

[KVenom]

2 минуты назад, TheGrimCorsair сказал:

The only thing the op's "test" proves is they should probably stay away from Vegas.

Oh, I am sorry, I can't hear you over all the huge lack of proof you provided with your statement.

[DoomFruit]

17 hours ago, NoLife said:

If the drop tables were changed, we should see them here, should we not? Thought this was an automatic system.
Sidenote, population size of drop chances vs. Less than a Coin Flip don't convince me as of yet. Would like to see near a thousand runs to determine a drop chance from playtesting. Which is not reasonable for an individual, but still...

https://warframe.com/droptables

Void Storm (Veil Proxima)
6X Corrupted Holokey	Common (37.50%)

Whether it's automatic or not, that doesn't make it accurate. Just before railjack was added to the game, they made it so that the resources you need dropped from eximuseseses on Ceres, Europa and some place else (I forget where it was). Supposedly they had a 100% drop rate.

I ran several missions on Ceres, all with plenty of eximus enemies. Not a single one dropped cubic diodes (and yes, they had it backwards where grineer eximus dropped corpus parts and corpus eximus dropped grineer parts - carbides). There was a patch later on that actually made it work - but the drop table website was lying.

[IMP_102]

1 hour ago, KVenom said:

So, most probable ammount of our key drop will be 30*0.375 = 11, give or take 4, according to highest probabilities, counted through mentioned Bernoulli Formula.
So, at worst, we get 7 out of 30. Any lower ammounts have even less probability, same for ammounts bigger than 15.

THAT'S STILL MORE THAN 2 OUT OF 30, which has like probability of 0.00012(0.012%) to happen.

7 out of 30 at worst, with what confidence? 0.012% of 100k people playing still means 12 people on average will get that result. Heck there may be people who get 0 after 30 runs, as unlikely as it is. I mean you simply fail to grasp that no matter how small probability is, with large enough group of people it is bound to happens to someone sooner or later. Heck by your logic 1 in a million should not happen ever, but got tell that to people who got hit by a lightning.

[KVenom]

3 минуты назад, IMP_102 сказал:

7 out of 30 at worst, with what confidence? 0.012% of 100k people playing still means 12 people on average will get that result. Heck there may be people who get 0 after 30 runs, as unlikely as it is. I mean you simply fail to grasp that no matter how small probability is, with large enough group of people it is bound to happens to someone sooner or later. Heck by your logic 1 in a million should not happen ever, but got tell that to people who got hit by a lightning.

You misread. 2 Key drops out of 30 runs has that probability.
Also, you miss the whole point, buddy. The damn thing is bugged. Thus it drops me and tons of other people Axi relics(which are even more rare, BTW) and Sevagoth parts, instead of Keys. Cuz that small ammount of chance is not applicable. Literally less than a thousandth of a persent.

[Zhoyzu]

21 hours ago, KVenom said:

30 runs is a "small number"? Are you high or something? Cuz for chances of 10% and above, 30 instances is more than enough to test the probability.

If the chance was below 10%, say, 2%, then yes, we would need 100+ instances, to be sure. Basic Theory of Probability stuff, man.

Now add the fact that there are at least 10 oher people who have done even more runs, and only got 1-2 drops, like me.

4 of those people you can see making discussions about the whole shtick.

you can flip a coin 10 times getting heads 8 times in a row. That doesnt mean it isnt a 50/50 chance. You're high if you think 30 is a big number period. Unless youre talking felony charges in which case 30 is a LOT.

Small number problem. In several thousands of runs its probably VERY close to 37%.

[(PSN)iuvenilis]

7 hours ago, KVenom said:

Thus it drops me and tons of other people Axi relics(which are even more rare, BTW)

Suggest stop making the comparison with Axi relics. If you're doing the optional objectives, you'll have a pretty good chance of getting at least 1 axi relic. They show up in multiple drop tables.

The keys are only in 1 drop table. 

So while a specifc axi relic has a low chance, the probability of getting at least one axi relic is actually pretty good.

Sample size of 30 is far too small to draw any statistical relevant conclusions. They could've done another 30 runs and recieved holokeys from 20 of those.

Rng is rng. 

[IMP_102]

13 hours ago, KVenom said:

You misread. 2 Key drops out of 30 runs has that probability.
Also, you miss the whole point, buddy. The damn thing is bugged. Thus it drops me and tons of other people Axi relics(which are even more rare, BTW) and Sevagoth parts, instead of Keys. Cuz that small ammount of chance is not applicable. Literally less than a thousandth of a persent.

I didn't misread that, the 0.012% chance is low. What I was pointing out with large enough group of people it will happen to someone nevertheless. If this was a systematic problem, there would be a lot more people complaining about this issue, mind complaining about not liking the farm and not getting drops is not the same thing. And I'm not sure what you mean about Axi relics and Sevagoth being rare, these 2 together are almost half the drop table in total, besides you are not even differentiating where these Axi relics dropped from, the normal loot table for the mission or the one for void storm or maybe even from the extra objective. The ones from void storm drop as radiant. Mind I am not saying that you are wrong, just that you and a few others having that experience doesn't prove anything one way or the other.

[(PSN)JustJoshinEnt]

14 hours ago, KVenom said:

You misread. 2 Key drops out of 30 runs has that probability.
Also, you miss the whole point, buddy. The damn thing is bugged. Thus it drops me and tons of other people Axi relics(which are even more rare, BTW) and Sevagoth parts, instead of Keys. Cuz that small ammount of chance is not applicable. Literally less than a thousandth of a persent.

One poster and some anecdotal accounts from a few other Tenno does not prove anything, much less that it's "bugged".  

RNG applies to each instance, and is by no means a guarantee in so few runs that anyone gets anything.  I ran RJ the other night and almost ALWAYS got holokeys.  Was it bugged for me, too?  Or was I just luckier than the OP?  

Y'all try and sound smart, but you're just proving you have no idea what's going on here.