Granum Void Droptables seem to not function correctly (No Protea Parts in 60+ runs)

[Jukantos]

I must be the unluckiest dude in all of Warframe, or there's something fishy going on.

This is the droptable of the Nightmare Granum Void according to warframe.com/droptables

 

Nightmare Granum Void
 

Spoiler

 

Rotation A

7500 Credits Cache Common (50.00%)

15X Void Traces Common (33.33%)

Zenith Granum Crown Decoration Uncommon (16.67%)

 

Rotation B

10,000 Credits Cache Common (50.00%)

600 Endo Common (33.33%)

Corpus Ship Orbital Cannon Scene Uncommon (16.67%)

 

Rotation C

Mortuus Shoulder Guard Uncommon (29.63%)

Stropha Stock Uncommon (29.63%)

Stahlta Barrel Uncommon (29.63%)

Protea Systems Blueprint Uncommon (11.11%)

 

I've now gathered 8 Stropha Stock in a row, alongside 1 Stahlta Barrel as the first and last drop. So on a droptable that is supposedly pretty evenly split into 1:3 chances (with a 1:9 chance of a Protea Part) i've rolled the same reward 8 times in a row. The odds of that happening should be 29,63% ^ 8, also known as 0,0017%

That's a statistically significant red flag. Something is DEFINITELY not working as intended here. Applying Ockhams Razor, Either the official droptables are bogus (unlikely), or the ingame distribution is bugged (likely). My clanmates reported having 60 completed runs (20 on each difficulty) yet not finding a single one of the supposedly 1:9 chance Protea parts. Again, if we do the math on that, that's 8/9th to the 20th dimension - only a 9% chance on each tier to NOT find the part, a 0,004% chance on all runs combined, IF the droptables are functioning as intended.

Obviously i have no intention to claim malevolence in play, i'd just like you to investigate and check if the droptables are being rolled as they are supposed to be. Because currently this grind is an agonizing anti-fun one. You can't tell me over a dozen people i play with going into sub 0,01% chances of not finding ANY Protea parts is functioning normal. It wouldn't be the first time droptables weren't quite working properly on release of this style of update.

[FrostedMike]

Second this. I stopped counting after 20 runs. I think I somewhere in 30-40.

[nslay]

Yep, I do believe something could be wrong with their RNG. I had an experience just like this with getting the Out of Sight Parazon mod from Lech Krill. Though I had to fend myself from a bunch forum trolls. If you can get a large enough sample size, you can do a hypothesis test and post absurd p-values in PC Bugs as evidence of a bug.

[Jukantos]

Anyone wanna open something like a google doc and just make it public so that people can enter the amount of times they've found items in a column, so we can calculate some totals? I don't know how to create a public document with a calculation macro to be totally honest.

Also one more key question: Once you've dropped the shoulder decoration does the game stop you from getting duplicates because you can't own an armor piece cosmetic twice? I hadn't even taken that into account yet (nor have i found that supposedly 29% chance drop)

[Fenrys_Delta]

Done over 80 runs now. I have parts to craft about 20 of each weapon and not a SINGLE frame part.

If this is what Warframe has become, I don´t feel like sticking around.

[Tesseract7777]

It could be there is something wrong. 

It could also be that you all are posting on the forums in frustration because you are statistical outliers with extremely, terrible, no good bad luck. 

The question is how many people are having luck this bad. If it's a few who are frustrated enough to post, it may just be bad luck, and more than likely that means your luck will turn for good soon enough, as far as statistics are concerned, even if you are outliers. 

If more than a few post, it's probably a problem with rng. 

I've also wondered over the years, and I doubt DE will ever let us know enough about their code to know for certain, but I've though it's possible particular individuals can somehow have a specific rng seed for something just for their account that ends up corrupted somehow, to be weighted wrong. From so many forum stories and personal experiences over the years, I wouldn't be surprised. It just seems odd how one person can do the same run like 1000+ times and not get something, and have abnormal drops over a decent sample size, but others as far as they can tell, are getting the normal drop table weight. 

[Magus_Tahir]

If you are not seeing any Frame parts like at all then yes something is borked. The likelihood of doing that many runs and not seeing any Frame pieces even in the worst luck scenario in probability is not normal. Toss it up in the bug section and see if you can get it looked at.

 

[Thundervision]

I had one Protea part, Systems, I think. But it was with the first hotfix after update...

[nslay]

18 minutes ago, Tesseract7777 said:

It could be there is something wrong. 

It could also be that you all are posting on the forums in frustration because you are statistical outliers with extremely, terrible, no good bad luck. 

The question is how many people are having luck this bad. If it's a few who are frustrated enough to post, it may just be bad luck, and more than likely that means your luck will turn for good soon enough, as far as statistics are concerned, even if you are outliers. 

If more than a few post, it's probably a problem with rng. 

I've also wondered over the years, and I doubt DE will ever let us know enough about their code to know for certain, but I've though it's possible particular individuals can somehow have a specific rng seed for something just for their account that ends up corrupted somehow, to be weighted wrong. From so many forum stories and personal experiences over the years, I wouldn't be surprised. It just seems odd how one person can do the same run like 1000+ times and not get something, and have abnormal drops over a decent sample size, but others as far as they can tell, are getting the normal drop table weight. 

Welp, there are ways to test this. People test if dice are fair (properly distributed)... it's even a standard example used in statistics courses. We can also do this kind of hypothesis test on RNG in this game and tell DE the p-values in PC-bugs (granted we run enough missions).

20 minutes ago, Tesseract7777 said:

it may just be bad luck, and more than likely that means your luck will turn for good soon enough,

This is gambler's fallacy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

[quxier]

22 minutes ago, Tesseract7777 said:

I've also wondered over the years, and I doubt DE will ever let us know enough about their code to know for certain, but I've though it's possible particular individuals can somehow have a specific rng seed for something just for their account that ends up corrupted somehow, to be weighted wrong. From so many forum stories and personal experiences over the years, I wouldn't be surprised. It just seems odd how one person can do the same run like 1000+ times and not get something, and have abnormal drops over a decent sample size, but others as far as they can tell, are getting the normal drop table weight. 

I don't think any multiplayer game would set a seed to your account (you can prove me wrong - I'm far from an expert). Sure, one seed per mission (e.g. positions of argons/morphics).

26 minutes ago, Tesseract7777 said:

It could be there is something wrong. 

It could also be that you all are posting on the forums in frustration because you are statistical outliers with extremely, terrible, no good bad luck. 

The question is how many people are having luck this bad. If it's a few who are frustrated enough to post, it may just be bad luck, and more than likely that means your luck will turn for good soon enough, as far as statistics are concerned, even if you are outliers. 

If more than a few post, it's probably a problem with rng. 

That's why you don't just pick your PRNG into your game.... randomly. Some PRNG (with some arguments) are bad. Read about WOW PRNG history.
 

[Traumtulpe]

1 hour ago, Jukantos said:

Something is DEFINITELY not working as intended here. Applying Ockhams Razor, Either the official droptables are bogus (unlikely), or the ingame distribution is bugged (likely).

You don't use Ockhams Razor for shaving.

How many people are playing Warframe? Some of them are bound to be unlucky and never get certain drops, as Warframe has pure RNG without pity timers.

[Fenrys_Delta]

6 minutes ago, Traumtulpe said:

You don't use Ockhams Razor for shaving.

How many people are playing Warframe? Some of them are bound to be unlucky and never get certain drops, as Warframe has pure RNG without pity timers.

So, you´re telling me that someone can put in the effort and the work to get a certain drop and never get it because of luck?

Why would anyone want to play a game like that?

[Midnightmotion]

We did those runs in clan. On the first day, we got neuroptics and Chassi.

Then we stopped till next day. Then we got this Update with scaling Enemies Numbers per mate. Now we did more then 60 runs in a row (Tier 3) and there was nothing but shoulder parts and weapon part. Every day!

They seem to have a misstake while programming the new Stacking Enemie Counter compared to the droptable.

Btw. we recognized, that when we did Exterminations and did the Granum Void before we finnished the mission (killed EVERY single Enemie), the normal Enemies (standard corpus ) spawn IN THE GRANUM VOID!

Example: Kill 120 Enemies.    -   we killed like 100 and went into Granum void C    -    In Granum Void The phantoms AND the Corpus spawn

Then we have to kill like 150 Phantoms. NOW The Corpus count to kill counter but absolutely Number of Corpus which is needed to be killed in that mission also grows same amount of corpus u killed in the granum void. So U killed like 10 of the spawned Corpus in Granum Void. The Bodycounter goes from 100 up 110. But Absolutely Counter goes from 120 to 130 as well. Means, every Corpus killed in the Granum Void highes the Bodycounters Finnishing goal for same Amount.

No Problem so far, but if u come over the First 120 Enemies, There will spawn no Enemies at all on the Tileset. And if not, there seems to spawn the Difference between the Counter in the VOID and that Bodycounter. Means, in this case, u killed 110 At all, Bodycounter goes up to 130, 130-120 origins counter means 10 Difference. Those are missing then in most cases. We tried this from different ways. We had to quit the missions.

Sollution is, to do the mission first. When u got ur 120/120 there will not spawn Corpus in Granum Void but the phantoms and Everything will be ok.

So IF u wanna farm in Granum VOID there should be missions chosen, which have an easy, single target independent from Killing it. Like a sabotage.

 

All in all we did over 100 runs and since first day there was no single part or Protea found at all. In no Group. And we got one for the biggest Clans with over 100 Active Players and 4 Groups farming since 3 days. There is not only a broken Loot table. The comblete counting System is Broken.

Another Efects were:

- Some of the Timecounters / Killcounters did not work. They just freezed. Most time we hat 3 to 4 player and a maximum of 1-2 seeing the right time and the right Counter.

- The Amount of Enemies spawing seems to be very different. There were runs, were absolutely not enough Enemies spawned. No way.

Conclusion: There seems to be an absolutely untested Updated be tested on life Servers. In my Opinion noone would release something broken like this.

THIS NEEDS SOME SERIOUS REWORK RIGHT NOW!

The only Clan member who got Protea is that unpatient Dude who bought this from Market. And we all got anough Weapon Parts to build another Corpus Ship.

 

[Traumtulpe]

Exactly. How was that not obvious from the start?

You don't need Protea to enjoy the game though.

[Tesseract7777]

13 minutes ago, quxier said:

I don't think any multiplayer game would set a seed to your account (you can prove me wrong - I'm far from an expert). Sure, one seed per mission (e.g. positions of argons/morphics).

That's why you don't just pick your PRNG into your game.... randomly. Some PRNG (with some arguments) are bad. Read about WOW PRNG history.
 

Shrug, it's just a hypothesis I've considered. It's probably wrong, probably just something else wrong with their system, but in general rng systems for games are pretty flawed and Warframe isn't really an exception. 

33 minutes ago, nslay said:

Welp, there are ways to test this. People test if dice are fair (properly distributed)... it's even a standard example used in statistics courses. We can also do this kind of hypothesis test on RNG in this game and tell DE the p-values in PC-bugs (granted we run enough missions).

This is gambler's fallacy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

Yes and no, it probably depends on how many runs we are talking. All I'm saying is that if there isn't something broken with the game, over a very, very long amount of runs, you should have a pile in your inventory that roughly resembles the weighting of the drop table. But I don't feel like doing the math right now, it could be quite a big number for an individual to expect that to mathematically weight out properly idk how many runs that would be. 

[kwlingo]

Every negative opinion on forum equals an additional day per part when grinding.

[Jukantos]

vor 1 Minute schrieb kwlingo:

Every negative opinion on forum equals an additional day per part when grinding.

That's a little blindly apologetic. All i did was ask for an investigation into why the rates seem off.

Please don't take this as an opportunity to dev-bash guys, we need this fixed, not an uncommented threadlock >_>

[nslay]

5 minutes ago, Tesseract7777 said:

Yes and no, it probably depends on how many runs we are talking. All I'm saying is that if there isn't something broken with the game, over a very, very long amount of runs, you should have a pile in your inventory that roughly resembles the weighting of the drop table. But I don't feel like doing the math right now, it could be quite a big number for an individual to expect that to mathematically weight out properly idk how many runs that would be. 

That's true, but every roll is still independent. All you can do is use a large number of unusual rolls as evidence of something wrong (and overwhelming evidence for a lot of runs!). But there is still a non-zero probability that an unusual number of rolls can happen. And even if the distribution is correct, you having a bad luck streak tells you nothing about what the next roll or next few rolls will look like (rolls are independent).

[kwlingo]

4 minutes ago, Jukantos said:

That's a little blindly apologetic. All i did was ask for an investigation into why the rates seem off.

Please don't take this as an opportunity to dev-bash guys, we need this fixed, not an uncommented threadlock >_>

I'm in the same boat 3 days no parts. I feel your pain. My luck will be a month 

[Jukantos]

vor 3 Minuten schrieb nslay:

That's true, but every roll is still independent. All you can do is use a large number of unusual rolls as evidence of something wrong (and overwhelming evidence for a lot of runs!). But there is still a non-zero probability that an unusual number of rolls can happen. And even if the distribution is correct, you having a bad luck streak tells you nothing about what the next roll or next few rolls will look like (rolls are independent).

While that may be true, a high number of players experiencing very drastically unlikely scenarios does indicate something may just straightup not be functioning properly. That's the entire point of the thread. I think in their flurry of hotfixes something got broken and now it needs investigating and fixing, otherwise everyone who didnt finish the Protea parts on Day 1 is condemned to either running the same bugged activity 250 times or to just spend platinum because there's an unfair bug-wall.

This reminds me of the Profit-Taker Bounty Systems situation where you had to grind a bounty reward package of i believe Atmo Systems 2 times in order to advance to the syndicate rank that would let you buy any systems at your leasure, and because that drop at supposedly 15% chance was broken i spent 144 attempts getting it. That's the kind of stuff that makes you uninstall the game for half a year. It should clearly be in DEs interests to have a fair path to new content, and having droptables this broken ain't it.

[Fenrys_Delta]

1 minute ago, kwlingo said:

I'm in the same boat 3 days no parts. I feel your pain. My luck will be a month 

This.

Even if it´s working as intended, I don´t understand why DE thinks this is acceptable. Three days and not a SINGLE part.

Is this what the game has become?

[Talinthis]

1 hour ago, Jukantos said:

Anyone wanna open something like a google doc and just make it public so that people can enter the amount of times they've found items in a column, so we can calculate some totals? I don't know how to create a public document with a calculation macro to be totally honest.

Also one more key question: Once you've dropped the shoulder decoration does the game stop you from getting duplicates because you can't own an armor piece cosmetic twice? I hadn't even taken that into account yet (nor have i found that supposedly 29% chance drop)

heh.. nope. and you cant even have more than one even though they can be sold for credits. i got like 18 of them from drops but i still only have 1 in my inventory.

[Jukantos]

Update on my personal loot standings:

14 stocks

8 barrels

1 Shoulder decoration

And obviously still no Protea. And that's just the T3 side of things. After a good 4 hours. This is fine.

[(PSN)drollive96]

Oh joy this grind should be "fun" when it comes to console. not looking forward to it

[Krankbert]

vor 46 Minuten schrieb Fenrys_Delta:

This.

Even if it´s working as intended, I don´t understand why DE thinks this is acceptable. Three days and not a SINGLE part.

Is this what the game has become?

Have you heard of Khora?

  

vor 47 Minuten schrieb Jukantos:

While that may be true, a high number of players experiencing very drastically unlikely scenarios does indicate something may just straightup not be functioning properly.

You have absolutely no way of knowing whether or not a high number of players is experiencing a drastically unlikely scenario.