Kobold101 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 I'm calling bullS#&$ on this. Idk how it's weighed but after searching for a collective amount of ~8 hours I can almost certainly confirm some are rarer than others. I'm very frequently running for 1-2+ hours just for one of two weapons, a supposed 1/8 chance. I refuse to believe it's just RNG because it happens far too consistently for it to be random chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
(PSN)Lollybomb Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Humans are terrible at probability, and your sample size is likely too small to really be confident. If we aggregate your data with even a dozen other users, it's likely to all even out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zurefox Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 hace 3 minutos, (PSN)Lollybomb dijo: Humans are terrible at probability, and your sample size is likely too small to really be confident. If we aggregate your data with even a dozen other users, it's likely to all even out. This guy is right, math sometimes look "tricky" but its true, its RNG, you need a really big data sample to notice the RNG not just 100 or less tries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gremlin Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 I flipped a coin three times but I didn't get heads, this coin is weighted for tails I can almost certainly confirm this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krc473 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 47 minutes ago, Kobold101 said: Idk how it's weighed but after searching for a collective amount of ~8 hours I can almost certainly confirm some are rarer than others. You should probably say which ones seem more likely and which seem rare. I know which ones I have seen the most, I am curious what you have found. Without you providing the spreadsheet of your data it is hard to take your side. They are probably equally weighted and you’re just unlucky. RNG does that. It can take 80 runs to get something that has a 10% drop chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kobold101 Posted December 17, 2020 Author Share Posted December 17, 2020 1 hour ago, krc473 said: You should probably say which ones seem more likely and which seem rare. I know which ones I have seen the most, I am curious what you have found. Off the top of my head, the Chakkhurr and the Nukor seem to be excessively rare. Kraken, Dragoon, and Seer seem to be the more common. Bramma is slightly less common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgabor Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 I also only got Kraken, Drakgoon, Stubba, etc. all the time until i stopped stabbing Larvlings, still only got these after a great deal of Adaro runs and just completely stopped trying. The Chakhurr was the only thing i cared about from all the Kuva weapons, but i play other games too, which leaves me little time for a farming simulator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Surbusken Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Yeah, the law of probability yes we know that one. What is the chance, developers want you to grind extra, post fake metrics and make mistakes - can't be trusted? Is there anything, the developers are more invested in, than making you grind? Are they looking out for your interests, or are they looking out for their interests? How many of the developers actually ever played the game, actually grinded out any item, just a single item ever? Is the grind skippable with real money? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sabremouse Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 27 minutes ago, Surbusken said: How many of the developers actually ever played the game, actually grinded out any item, just a single item ever? Never seen a dev livestream of grinding for "that one part" ad infinitium without reward, but I'd pay plat to see it! :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
(XBOX)TheWayOfWisdom Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 RNG is a cruel mistress Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NecroPed Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 So does flipping a coin for heads or tails. But, you'll still get a repeat at some point. Hey, you might get lucky and get several repeats before it changes. That's just luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
(PSN)robotwars7 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 RNG is the most fickle of mistresses. should be easier with Queenpins though as there's only 3 briefcase weapons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lutesque Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 3 hours ago, Kobold101 said: I refuse to believe it's just RNG because it happens far too consistently for it to be random chance. Actually true Randomness is capable of producing Patterns and Consistencies... But RNGs can't producess truly Random results so ignore me... In any case which weapon are you after ? 3 hours ago, (PSN)Lollybomb said: Humans are terrible at probability, and your sample size is likely too small to really be confident. If we aggregate your data with even a dozen other users, it's likely to all even out. In other words.... Someone Stole his weapon 😱 !!! 1 hour ago, Kobold101 said: Off the top of my head, the Chakkhurr and the Nukor seem to be excessively rare. Kraken, Dragoon, and Seer seem to be the more common. Bramma is slightly less common. Interesting Results... Nukor is also a rare sight for me.... Which is good because I can't stand Beam Weapons 😠... I get plenty of Chakkhurs... Most of my converted Liches are Chakkhur Wielders... So I guess I'm the one who's been hoarding the RNG on this weapon. The one that took me the longest was the Kuva Bramma.... And by longest I only mean 4 Hours of nothing but spawning Larvings.... I kid you not... I levelled up 2 Weapons and one Warframe from 0 - 30 while doing this... Other than that the rest seem evenly spread for me.... 38 minutes ago, Sabremouse said: Never seen a dev livestream of grinding for "that one part" ad infinitium without reward, but I'd pay plat to see it! :D Reminds me of FightinCowboy grinding for that almighty Yasakani Maharana in an old Nioh Stream... Lol... It was Brutal 😱... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krc473 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 12 hours ago, Kobold101 said: Off the top of my head, the Chakkhurr and the Nukor seem to be excessively rare. Kraken, Dragoon, and Seer seem to be the more common. Bramma is slightly less common. I have found that Nukor is quite common. I got it twice in four Liches. Bramma is another one I have found many times. I haven't found Kraken or Drakgoon, so I would say they are quite rare. I imagine that like several other things, there is a slight bias towards some of the weapons. I have found a similar thing before when comparing what I was getting to what friends were getting. That could be why I am finding your "rare" weapons to be very common, and your "common" weapons to be quite rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegetosayajin Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 It's classical probability. When I search for an upgrade to a specific weapon it takes me from 2-3 min to an hour to get the one I need.(the capture on saturn, quit the moment I see it's not the one I want) I never had any problem with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liljeman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 With true RNG these 2 strings are equally likely to appear: 1323313231 or 1111111111 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aadi880 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Pretending drops are skewed because it doesn't give what you want doesn't mean it is. Its like drawing a cup of water from the ocean, looking at it, and then declaring there is no fish in the sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
(XBOX)ShadowBlood89 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 On 2020-12-17 at 1:23 PM, Kobold101 said: I'm calling bullS#&$ on this. Idk how it's weighed but after searching for a collective amount of ~8 hours I can almost certainly confirm some are rarer than others. I'm very frequently running for 1-2+ hours just for one of two weapons, a supposed 1/8 chance. I refuse to believe it's just RNG because it happens far too consistently for it to be random chance. there are 16 kuva weapons an so there a 1/16 chance of each kuva weapon coming up, tho it used to be a 1/15 as previous update had it where you could not get the same weapon again. it randomly picks between 1 of the 16 weapons so it is equal chance an its RNG what will get picked. the system is not set to be able to read your brain waves to know what kuva weapon your wanting an force only that one to be in the hands of your lich larvaling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venus-Venera Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Am 17.12.2020 um 20:23 schrieb Kobold101: I'm calling bullS#&$ on this. Idk how it's weighed but after searching for a collective amount of ~8 hours I can almost certainly confirm some are rarer than others. I'm very frequently running for 1-2+ hours just for one of two weapons, a supposed 1/8 chance. I refuse to believe it's just RNG because it happens far too consistently for it to be random chance. Even if equal chances are ALLEGED programmed, there can always be bugs. As a senior soft developer, I know that too well. and i also had experts with 30-40 or more years programming experience in the team. therefore: yes! you might very well be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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